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An unprecedented number of humanitarian emergencies of large magnitude and duration is causing the largest number of people in a generation to be forcibly displaced. Yet the existing humanitarian system was created for a different time and is no longer fit for purpose. On the basis of lessons learned from recent crises, particularly the Syrian conflict and the Ebola epidemic, I recommend four sets of actions that would make the humanitarian system relevant for future public health responses: (1) operationalise the concept of centrality of protection; (2) integrate affected persons into national health systems by addressing the humanitarian–development nexus; (3) remake, do not simply revise, leadership and coordination; and (4) make interventions efficient, effective, and sustainable. For these recommendations to be implemented, governments, UN agencies, multilateral organisations, and international non-governmental organisations will need to put aside differences and relinquish authority, influence, and funding.

The effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in humanitarian contexts are not well understood. Specific vulnerabilities in such settings raised concerns about the ability to respond and maintain essential health services. This study describes the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Azraq and Zaatari refugee camps in Jordan (population: 37,932 and 79,034, respectively) and evaluates changes in routine health services during the COVID-19 pandemic. We calculate the descriptive statistics of COVID-19 cases in the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)'s linelist and adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for selected outcomes. We evaluate the changes in health services using monthly routine data from UNHCR's health information system (HIS; January 2018 to March 2021) and apply interrupted time series analysis with a generalized additive model and negative binomial (NB) distribution, accounting for long-term trends and seasonality, reporting results as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). COVID-19 cases were first reported on September 8 and September 13, 2020 in Azraq and Zaatari camps, respectively, 6 months after the first case in Jordan. Incidence rates (IRs) were lower in camps than neighboring governorates (by 37.6% in Azraq (IRR: 0.624, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [0.584 to 0.666], p-value: <0.001) and 40.2% in Zaatari (IRR: 0.598, 95% CI: [0.570, 0.629], p-value: <0.001)) and lower than Jordan (by 59.7% in Azraq (IRR: 0.403, 95% CI: [0.378 to 0.430], p-value: <0.001) and by 63.3% in Zaatari (IRR: 0.367, 95% CI: [0.350 to 0.385], p-value: <0.001)). Characteristics of cases and risk factors for negative disease outcomes were consistent with increasing COVID-19 evidence. The following health services reported an immediate decline during the first year of COVID-19: healthcare utilization (by 32% in Azraq (IRR: 0.680, 95% CI [0.549 to 0.843], p-value < 0.001) and by 24.2% in Zaatari (IRR: 0.758, 95% CI [0.577 to 0.995], p-value = 0.046)); consultations for respiratory tract infections (RTIs; by 25.1% in Azraq (IRR: 0.749, 95% CI: [0.596 to 0.940], p-value = 0.013 and by 37.5% in Zaatari (IRR: 0.625, 95% CI: [0.461 to 0.849], p-value = 0.003)); and family planning (new and repeat family planning consultations decreased by 47.4% in Azraq (IRR: 0.526, 95% CI: [0.376 to 0.736], p-value = <0.001) and 47.6% in Zaatari (IRR: 0.524, 95% CI: [0.312 to 0.878], p-value = 0.014)). Maternal and child health services as well as noncommunicable diseases did not show major changes compared to pre-COVID-19 period. Conducting interrupted time series analyses in volatile settings such refugee camps can be challenging as it may be difficult to meet some analytical assumptions and to mitigate threats to validity. The main limitation of this study relates therefore to possible unmeasured confounding. COVID-19 transmission was lower in camps than outside of camps. Refugees may have been affected from external transmission, rather than driving it. Various types of health services were affected differently, but disruptions appear to have been limited in the 2 camps compared to other noncamp settings. These insights into Jordan's refugee camps during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic set the stage for follow-up research to investigate how infection susceptibility evolved over time, as well as which mitigation strategies were more successful and accepted.

[...] a linear progression from the acute to postemergency phase was the frequently used model.3 Recent changes in conflicts have introduced much complexity. [...] country-level indicators might mask inequalities within different regions in a country-Sudan is in the medium HDI category but those people living in Darfur and southern Sudan are assumed to have far lower life expectancies than the country average. [...] the specific conflict setting, rather than the country as a whole, needs to be taken into account.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterized by multiple waves with varying rates of transmission affecting countries at different times and magnitudes. Forced displacement settings were considered particularly at risk due to pre-existing vulnerabilities. Yet, the effects of COVID-19 in refugee settings are not well understood. In this study, we report on the epidemiology of COVID-19 cases in Uganda’s refugee settlement regions of West Nile, Center and South, and evaluate how health service utilization changed during the first year of the pandemic. Methods We calculate descriptive statistics, testing rates, and incidence rates of COVID-19 cases in UNHCR’s line list and adjusted odds ratios for selected outcomes. We evaluate the changes in health services using monthly routine data from UNHCR’s health information system (January 2017 to March 2021) and apply interrupted time series analysis with a generalized additive model and negative binomial distribution, accounting for long-term trends and seasonality, reporting results as incidence rate ratios. Findings The first COVID-19 case was registered in Uganda on March 20, 2020, and among refugees two months later on May 22, 2020 in Adjumani settlement. Incidence rates were higher at national level for the general population compared to refugees by region and overall. Testing capacity in the settlements was lower compared to the national level. Characteristics of COVID-19 cases among refugees in Uganda seem to align with the global epidemiology of COVID-19. Only hospitalization rate was higher than globally reported. The indirect effects of COVID-19 on routine health services and outcomes appear quite consistent across regions. Maternal and child routine and preventative health services seem to have been less affected by COVID-19 than consultations for acute conditions. All regions reported a decrease in consultations for respiratory tract infections. Interpretation COVID-19 transmission seemed lower in settlement regions than the national average, but so was testing capacity. Disruptions to health services were limited, and mainly affected consultations for acute conditions. This study, focusing on the first year of the pandemic, warrants follow-up research to investigate how susceptibility evolved over time, and how and whether health services could be maintained.

In settings of mass displacement, unaccompanied minors (UAMs) are recognized as a vulnerable group and consequently prioritized by relief efforts. This study examines how the interpretation of vulnerability by the national shelter system for male UAMs in Greece shapes their trajectories into adulthood. Between August 2018 and April 2019, key informant interviews were carried out with child protection staff from Greek non-governmental organizations that refer UAMs to specialized children's shelters in Athens to understand how child protection workers interpret vulnerability. In-depth interviews and life history calendars were collected from 44 male migrant youths from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Iran who arrived in Greece as UAMs but had since transitioned into adulthood. Analysis of in-depth interviews and life history calendars examined how cumulative disadvantage and engagement with the shelter system altered youths' trajectories into adulthood. Younger adolescents were perceived as more vulnerable and prioritized for shelters over those who were \"almost 18\" years old. However, a subset of youths who requested shelter at the age of 17 years had experienced prolonged journeys where they spent months or years living on their own in socially isolated environments that excluded them from experiences conducive to adolescent development. The shelter system for UAMs in Greece enabled youths to develop new skills and networks that facilitated integration into society, and transferred them into adult housing when they turned 18 years old so that they could continue developing new skills. Those who were not in shelters by age 18 years could not access adult housing and lost this opportunity. Limitations included possible underrepresentation of homeless youth as well as the inability to capture all nationalities of UAMs in Greece, though the 2 most common nationalities, Afghan and Pakistani, were included. Due to the way vulnerability was interpreted by the shelter system for UAMs, youths who had the greatest need to learn new skills to facilitate their integration often had the least opportunity to do so. To avoid creating long-lasting disparities between UAMs who are placed in shelters and those who are not, pathways should be developed to allow young adult males to enter accommodation facilities and build skills and networks that facilitate integration. Furthermore, cumulative disadvantages should be taken into account while assessing UAMs' vulnerability. Following UAMs' trajectories into early adulthood was critical for capturing this long-term consequence of the shelter system's interpretation of vulnerability.

Understanding the spread of COVID-19 in humanitarian and fragile settings is challenging for many reasons, including the lack of data on social dynamics and preventive behaviors during an epidemic. We investigate social interactions in three such settings - Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Central African Republic (CAR), Cox’s Bazar (CXB), Bangladesh – and how they changed during the first year of the pandemic. This comparative mixed-methods study uses a representative household survey and focus group discussions or key informant interviews in each site. Descriptive weighted analysis of survey responses was conducted; multivariate logistic regression identified factors associated with changes in social interactions. Thematic analysis was conducted on qualitative data. Nearly all participants had social interactions the day before the survey, although the average number of daily interactions was low. Interactions primarily occurred indoors, at home and without masks. We saw a discrepancy between knowledge about and practice of preventive behaviors. Most respondents reported interacting less often (77.3% CXB, 86.7% CAR, 58.8% DRC) and having shorter meetings (80% CXB, 77.8% CAR, and 47.8% DRC). Reluctance towards the COVID-19 vaccine was a risk factor for non-compliant behaviors in CAR (OR increased frequency = 3.51, 95%CI = 1.41–8.75; OR increased duration = 2.47, 95%CI = 1.15–5.29) and DRC (OR increased duration = 3.06, 95%CI = 1.71–5.49), likely pointing to distrust towards institutional policies. Respondents from IDP communities in DRC were less likely to reduce the frequency of interaction, likely because living conditions did not facilitate physical distancing. Increased knowledge in CXB was associated with compliant behavior (for 1pt-increase: OR increased frequency = 0.47, 95%CI = 0.32–0.68; OR increased duration = 0.46, 95%CI = 0.31–0.69). Understanding social dynamics is fundamental to predict infectious disease spread, particularly in humanitarian settings. More evidence is needed to understand behaviors influencing disease dynamics and drivers of behaviors, including trust in authorities, social, and economic factors. Peace, community engagement, and reduction of misinformation remain critical for epidemic responses in humanitarian settings.

Background This study examines mental, neurological, and substance use (MNS) service usage within refugee camp primary health care facilities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) by analyzing surveillance data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Health Information System (HIS). Such information is crucial for efforts to strengthen MNS services in primary health care settings for refugees in LMICs. Methods Data on 744,036 MNS visits were collected from 175 refugee camps across 24 countries between 2009 and 2018. The HIS documented primary health care visits for seven MNS categories: epilepsy/seizures, alcohol/substance use disorders, mental retardation/intellectual disability, psychotic disorders, severe emotional disorders, medically unexplained somatic complaints, and other psychological complaints. Combined data were stratified by 2-year period, country, sex, and age group. These data were then integrated with camp population data to generate MNS service utilization rates, calculated as MNS visits per 1000 persons per month. Results MNS service utilization rates remained broadly consistent throughout the 10-year period, with rates across all camps hovering around 2–3 visits per 1000 persons per month. The largest proportion of MNS visits were attributable to epilepsy/seizures (44.4%) and psychotic disorders (21.8%). There were wide variations in MNS service utilization rates and few consistent patterns over time at the country level. Across the 10 years, females had higher MNS service utilization rates than males, and rates were lower among children under five compared to those five and older. Conclusions Despite increased efforts to integrate MNS services into refugee primary health care settings over the past 10 years, there does not appear to be an increase in overall service utilization rates for MNS disorders within these settings. Healthcare service utilization rates are particularly low for common mental disorders such as depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, and substance use. This may be related to different health-seeking behaviors for these disorders and because psychological services are often offered outside of formal health settings and consequently do not report to the HIS. Sustained and equitable investment to improve identification and holistic management of MNS disorders in refugee settings should remain a priority.

COVID-19 prevention strategies in resource limited settings, modelled on the earlier response in high income countries, have thus far focused on draconian containment strategies, which impose movement restrictions on a wide scale. These restrictions are unlikely to prevent cases from surging well beyond existing hospitalisation capacity; not withstanding their likely severe social and economic costs in the long term. We suggest that in low-income countries, time limited movement restrictions should be considered primarily as an opportunity to develop sustainable and resource appropriate mitigation strategies. These mitigation strategies, if focused on reducing COVID-19 transmission through a triad of prevention activities, have the potential to mitigate bed demand and mortality by a considerable extent. This triade is based on a combination of high-uptake of community led shielding of high-risk individuals, self-isolation of mild to moderately symptomatic cases, and moderate physical distancing in the community. We outline a set of principles for communities to consider how to support the protection of the most vulnerable, by shielding them from infection within and outside their homes. We further suggest three potential shielding options, with their likely applicability to different settings, for communities to consider and that would enable them to provide access to transmission-shielded arrangements for the highest risk community members. Importantly, any shielding strategy would need to be predicated on sound, locally informed behavioural science and monitored for effectiveness and evaluating its potential under realistic modelling assumptions. Perhaps, most importantly, it is essential that these strategies not be perceived as oppressive measures and be community led in their design and implementation. This is in order that they can be sustained for an extended period of time, until COVID-19 can be controlled or vaccine and treatment options become available.

Cholera outbreaks are on the rise globally, with conflict-affected settings particularly at risk. Case-area targeted interventions (CATIs), a strategy whereby teams provide a package of interventions to case and neighboring households within a predefined \"ring,\" are increasingly employed in cholera responses. However, evidence on their ability to attenuate incidence is limited. We conducted a prospective observational cohort study in 3 conflict-affected states in Nigeria in 2021. Enumerators within rapid response teams observed CATI implementation during a cholera outbreak and collected data on household demographics; existing water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure; and CATI interventions. Descriptive statistics showed that CATIs were delivered to 46,864 case and neighbor households, with 80.0% of cases and 33.5% of neighbors receiving all intended supplies and activities, in a context with operational challenges of population density, supply stock outs, and security constraints. We then applied prospective Poisson space-time scan statistics (STSS) across 3 models for each state: (1) an unadjusted model with case and population data; (2) an environmentally adjusted model adjusting for distance to cholera treatment centers and existing WASH infrastructure (improved water source, improved latrine, and handwashing station); and (3) a fully adjusted model adjusting for environmental and CATI variables (supply of Aquatabs and soap, hygiene promotion, bedding and latrine disinfection activities, ring coverage, and response timeliness). We ran the STSS each day of our study period to evaluate the space-time dynamics of the cholera outbreaks. Compared to the unadjusted model, significant cholera clustering was attenuated in the environmentally adjusted model (from 572 to 18 clusters) but there was still risk of cholera transmission. Two states still yielded significant clusters (range 8-10 total clusters, relative risk of 2.2-5.5, 16.6-19.9 day duration, including 11.1-56.8 cholera cases). Cholera clustering was completely attenuated in the fully adjusted model, with no significant anomalous clusters across time and space. Associated measures including quantity, relative risk, significance, likelihood of recurrence, size, and duration of clusters reinforced the results. Key limitations include selection bias, remote data monitoring, and the lack of a control group. CATIs were associated with significant reductions in cholera clustering in Northeast Nigeria despite operational challenges. Our results provide a strong justification for rapid implementation and scale-up CATIs in cholera-response, particularly in conflict settings where WASH access is often limited.