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Tropical forests play a critical role in the hydrological cycle and can influence local and regional precipitation 1 . Previous work has assessed the impacts of tropical deforestation on precipitation, but these efforts have been largely limited to case studies 2 . A wider analysis of interactions between deforestation and precipitation—and especially how any such interactions might vary across spatial scales—is lacking. Here we show reduced precipitation over deforested regions across the tropics. Our results arise from a pan-tropical assessment of the impacts of 2003–2017 forest loss on precipitation using satellite, station-based and reanalysis datasets. The effect of deforestation on precipitation increased at larger scales, with satellite datasets showing that forest loss caused robust reductions in precipitation at scales greater than 50 km. The greatest declines in precipitation occurred at 200 km, the largest scale we explored, for which 1 percentage point of forest loss reduced precipitation by 0.25 ± 0.1 mm per month. Reanalysis and station-based products disagree on the direction of precipitation responses to forest loss, which we attribute to sparse in situ tropical measurements. We estimate that future deforestation in the Congo will reduce local precipitation by 8–10% in 2100. Our findings provide a compelling argument for tropical forest conservation to support regional climate resilience. A pan-tropical analysis using satellite, station-based and reanalysis datasets shows that deforestation causes reduced precipitation, and demonstrates that the effect increases with spatial scale.

Protected areas (PAs) have been established to conserve tropical forests, but their effectiveness at reducing deforestation is uncertain. To explore this issue, we combined high resolution data of global forest loss over the period 2000-2012 with data on PAs. For each PA we quantified forest loss within the PA, in buffer zones 1, 5, 10 and 15 km outside the PA boundary as well as a 1 km buffer within the PA boundary. We analysed 3376 tropical and subtropical moist forest PAs in 56 countries over 4 continents. We found that 73% of PAs experienced substantial deforestation pressure, with >0.1% a(-1) forest loss in the outer 1 km buffer. Forest loss within PAs was greatest in Asia (0.25% a(-1)) compared to Africa (0.1% a(-1)), the Neotropics (0.1% a(-1)) and Australasia (Australia and Papua New Guinea; 0.03% a(-1)). We defined performance (P) of a PA as the ratio of forest loss in the inner 1 km buffer compared to the loss that would have occurred in the absence of the PA, calculated as the loss in the outer 1 km buffer corrected for any difference in deforestation pressure between the two buffers. To remove the potential bias due to terrain, we analysed a subset of PAs (n = 1804) where slope and elevation in inner and outer 1 km buffers were similar (within 1° and 100 m, respectively). We found 41% of PAs in this subset reduced forest loss in the inner buffer by at least 25% compared to the expected inner buffer forest loss (P<0.75). Median performance (P) of subset reserves was 0.87, meaning a reduction in forest loss within the PA of 13%. We found PAs were most effective in Australasia (P = 0.16), moderately successful in the Neotropics (P = 0.72) and Africa (p = 0.83), but ineffective in Asia (P = 1). We found many countries have PAs that give little or no protection to forest loss, particularly in parts of Asia, west Africa and central America. Across the tropics, the median effectiveness of PAs at the national level improved with gross domestic product per capita. Whilst tropical and subtropical moist forest PAs do reduce forest loss, widely varying performance suggests substantial opportunities for improved protection, particularly in Asia.

Remote sensing and simulated atmospheric transport patterns are used to show that air passage over tropical forests produces about twice as much rain as passage over sparse vegetation; in an idealized Amazonian deforestation scenario, a reduction in seasonal precipitation of approximately 12–21% is estimated. Tropical rain follows air passage over forests This global observational analysis demonstrates that forests exert a strong control on rainfall hundreds of kilometres downwind through a water-cycle feedback. When precipitation occurs, some of the water returns to the atmosphere through transpiration and evaporation. In the tropics, this process has long been thought to be an important part of the overall precipitation budget. But most evidence has come from modelling studies, which remain inconclusive. Dominick Spracklen and colleagues use remote sensing and atmospheric back-trajectory modelling to show that air passage over dense forests produces about twice as much rain as passage over sparse vegetation. They estimate a 12–21% reduction in seasonal precipitation if Amazon deforestation continues at the current rate, and conclude that efforts to curb deforestation are vital if drastic impacts on regional rainfall are to be avoided. Vegetation affects precipitation patterns by mediating moisture, energy and trace-gas fluxes between the surface and atmosphere 1 . When forests are replaced by pasture or crops, evapotranspiration of moisture from soil and vegetation is often diminished, leading to reduced atmospheric humidity and potentially suppressing precipitation 2 , 3 . Climate models predict that large-scale tropical deforestation causes reduced regional precipitation 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , although the magnitude of the effect is model 9 , 11 and resolution 8 dependent. In contrast, observational studies have linked deforestation to increased precipitation locally 12 , 13 , 14 but have been unable to explore the impact of large-scale deforestation. Here we use satellite remote-sensing data of tropical precipitation and vegetation, combined with simulated atmospheric transport patterns, to assess the pan-tropical effect of forests on tropical rainfall. We find that for more than 60 per cent of the tropical land surface (latitudes 30 degrees south to 30 degrees north), air that has passed over extensive vegetation in the preceding few days produces at least twice as much rain as air that has passed over little vegetation. We demonstrate that this empirical correlation is consistent with evapotranspiration maintaining atmospheric moisture in air that passes over extensive vegetation. We combine these empirical relationships with current trends of Amazonian deforestation to estimate reductions of 12 and 21 per cent in wet-season and dry-season precipitation respectively across the Amazon basin by 2050, due to less-efficient moisture recycling. Our observation-based results complement similar estimates from climate models 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , in which the physical mechanisms and feedbacks at work could be explored in more detail.

China's rapid industrialisation and urbanisation has led to poor air quality. The Chinese government have responded by introducing policies to reduce emissions and setting ambitious targets for ambient PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and O3 concentrations. Previous satellite and modelling studies indicate that concentrations of these pollutants have begun to decline within the last decade. However, prior to 2012, air quality data from ground-based monitoring stations were difficult to obtain, limited to a few locations in major cities, and often unreliable. Since then, a comprehensive monitoring network, with over 1000 stations across China has been established by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE). We use a three-year (2015-2017) dataset consisting of hourly PM2.5, O3, NO2 and SO2 concentrations obtained from the MEE, combined with similar data from Taiwan and Hong Kong. We find that at 53% and 59% of stations, PM2.5 and SO2 concentrations have decreased significantly, with median rates across all stations of −3.4 and −1.9 g m−3 year−1 respectively. At 50% of stations, O3 maximum daily 8 h mean (MDA8) concentrations have increased significantly, with median rates across all stations of 4.6 g m−3 year−1. It will be important to understand the relative contribution of changing anthropogenic emissions and meteorology to the changes in air pollution reported here.

Tropical montane forests (TMFs) are recognized for the provision of hydrological services and the protection of biodiversity, but their role in carbon storage is not well understood. We synthesized published observations (n = 94) of above-ground biomass (AGB) from forest inventory plots in TMFs (defined here as forests between 23.5° N and 23.5° S with elevations ≥ 1000 m a.s.l.). We found that mean (median) AGB in TMFs is 271 (254) t per hectare of land surface. We demonstrate that AGB declines moderately with both elevation and slope angle but that TMFs store substantial amounts of biomass, both at high elevations (up to 3500 m) and on steep slopes (slope angles of up to 40°). We combined remotely sensed data sets of forest cover with high resolution data of elevation to show that 75% of the global planimetric (horizontal) area of TMF are on steep slopes (slope angles greater than 27°). We used our remote sensed data sets to demonstrate that this prevalence of steep slopes results in the global land surface area of TMF (1.22 million km2) being 40% greater than the planimetric area that is the usual basis for reporting global land surface areas and remotely sensed data. Our study suggests that TMFs are likely to be a greater store of carbon than previously thought, highlighting the need for conservation of the remaining montane forests.

The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud droplet concentrations and radiative properties is the source of one of the largest uncertainties in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial period. This uncertainty affects our ability to estimate how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we perform a sensitivity analysis on a global model to quantify the uncertainty in cloud radiative forcing over the industrial period caused by uncertainties in aerosol emissions and processes. Our results show that 45 per cent of the variance of aerosol forcing since about 1750 arises from uncertainties in natural emissions of volcanic sulphur dioxide, marine dimethylsulphide, biogenic volatile organic carbon, biomass burning and sea spray. Only 34 per cent of the variance is associated with anthropogenic emissions. The results point to the importance of understanding pristine pre-industrial-like environments, with natural aerosols only, and suggest that improved measurements and evaluation of simulated aerosols in polluted present-day conditions will not necessarily result in commensurate reductions in the uncertainty of forcing estimates. It has been assumed that a better understanding of the effects of anthropogenic aerosols will greatly reduce the large uncertainties associated with our predictions of the radiative forcing effects of aerosols on climate; however, this study shows that nearly half of the uncertainty in the radiative effect of aerosols on clouds derives from uncertainties in pre-industrial natural aerosols. Natural versus anthropogenic aerosols in climate forcing Firmly establishing the influence of aerosols on cloud albedo — their forcing effect on climate in essence — is one of the greatest challenges of modern climate science. It is often tacitly assumed that the continued high uncertainties are linked mainly to anthropogenic emissions. In other words, if the anthropogenic effects could be better understood, so would the overall effect. Now Ken Carslaw and colleagues present an analysis of 28 parameters representing aerosol and precursor gas emissions and other factors that could influence cloud brightness. They find that only 34 per cent of the variance in aerosol forcing since pre-industrial times (around 1750) is associated with anthropogenic emissions, with 45 per cent of the variance linked to natural emissions of volcanic sulphur dioxide, marine dimethylsulphide and other natural sources. This work casts doubts on the degree of progress that can be made solely through advances in the understanding of anthropogenic aerosols and suggests that we need to discover more about the workings of the pre-industrial environment, when natural aerosols were predominant.

The literature on atmospheric particulate matter (PM), or atmospheric aerosol, has increased enormously over the last 2 decades and amounts now to some 1500–2000 papers per year in the refereed literature. This is in part due to the enormous advances in measurement technologies, which have allowed for an increasingly accurate understanding of the chemical composition and of the physical properties of atmospheric particles and of their processes in the atmosphere. The growing scientific interest in atmospheric aerosol particles is due to their high importance for environmental policy. In fact, particulate matter constitutes one of the most challenging problems both for air quality and for climate change policies. In this context, this paper reviews the most recent results within the atmospheric aerosol sciences and the policy needs, which have driven much of the increase in monitoring and mechanistic research over the last 2 decades. The synthesis reveals many new processes and developments in the science underpinning climate–aerosol interactions and effects of PM on human health and the environment. However, while airborne particulate matter is responsible for globally important influences on premature human mortality, we still do not know the relative importance of the different chemical components of PM for these effects. Likewise, the magnitude of the overall effects of PM on climate remains highly uncertain. Despite the uncertainty there are many things that could be done to mitigate local and global problems of atmospheric PM. Recent analyses have shown that reducing black carbon (BC) emissions, using known control measures, would reduce global warming and delay the time when anthropogenic effects on global temperature would exceed 2 °C. Likewise, cost-effective control measures on ammonia, an important agricultural precursor gas for secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA), would reduce regional eutrophication and PM concentrations in large areas of Europe, China and the USA. Thus, there is much that could be done to reduce the effects of atmospheric PM on the climate and the health of the environment and the human population. A prioritized list of actions to mitigate the full range of effects of PM is currently undeliverable due to shortcomings in the knowledge of aerosol science; among the shortcomings, the roles of PM in global climate and the relative roles of different PM precursor sources and their response to climate and land use change over the remaining decades of this century are prominent. In any case, the evidence from this paper strongly advocates for an integrated approach to air quality and climate policies.

Deforestation and drainage has made Indonesian peatlands susceptible to burning. Large fires occur regularly, destroying agricultural crops and forest, emitting large amounts of CO 2 and air pollutants, resulting in adverse health effects. In order to reduce fire, the Indonesian government has committed to restore 2.49 Mha of degraded peatland, with an estimated cost of US$3.2-7 billion. Here we combine fire emissions and land cover data to estimate the 2015 fires, the largest in recent years, resulted in economic losses totalling US$28 billion, whilst the six largest fire events between 2004 and 2015 caused a total of US$93.9 billion in economic losses. We estimate that if restoration had already been completed, the area burned in 2015 would have been reduced by 6%, reducing CO 2 emissions by 18%, and PM 2.5 emissions by 24%, preventing 12,000 premature mortalities. Peatland restoration could have resulted in economic savings of US$8.4 billion for 2004–2015, making it a cost-effective strategy for reducing the impacts of peatland fires to the environment, climate and human health. Deforestation and drainage have made Indonesian peatlands susceptible to burning. Here the authors find that Indonesia’s 2015 fires resulted in economic losses totaling US$28 billion, while the area burned and emissions released could have been significantly reduced had restoration been completed.

Primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) may play an important role in aerosol–climate interactions, in particular by affecting ice formation in mixed phase clouds. However, the role of PBAPs is poorly understood because the sources and distribution of PBAPs in the atmosphere are not well quantified. Here we include emissions of fungal spores and bacteria in a global aerosol microphysics model and explore their contribution to concentrations of supermicron particle number, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and immersion freezing rates. Simulated surface annual mean concentrations of fungal spores are ~ 2.5 × 104 m−3 over continental midlatitudes and 1 × 105 m−3 over tropical forests. Simulated surface concentrations of bacteria are 2.5 × 104 m−3 over most continental regions and 5 × 104 m−3 over grasslands of central Asia and North America. These simulated surface number concentrations of fungal spores and bacteria are broadly in agreement with the limited available observations. We find that fungal spores and bacteria contribute 8 and 5% respectively to simulated continental surface mean supermicron number concentrations, but have very limited impact on CCN concentrations, altering regional concentrations by less than 1%. In agreement with previous global modelling studies, we find that fungal spores and bacteria contribute very little (3 × 10−3%, even when we assume upper limits for ice nucleation activity) to global average immersion freezing ice nucleation rates, which are dominated by soot and dust. However, at lower altitudes (400 to 600 hPa), where warmer temperatures mean that soot and dust may not nucleate ice, we find that PBAP controls the immersion freezing ice nucleation rate. This demonstrates that PBAPs can be of regional importance for IN formation, in agreement with case study observations.

Fires are used to clear tropical forests. Satellite measurements and simulations show that reductions in deforestation and associated fires in Brazil have reduced emissions of particulate matter, preventing between 400 and 1,700 deaths annually. Roughly 15% of the Brazilian Amazon was deforested between 1976 and 2010 1 . Fire is the dominant method through which forests and vegetation are cleared. Fires emit large quantities of particulate matter into the atmosphere 2 , which degrades air quality and affects human health 3 , 4 . Since 2004, Brazil has achieved substantial reductions in deforestation rates 1 , 5 , 6 and associated deforestation fires 7 . Here we assess the impact of this reduction on air quality and human health during non-drought years between 2001 and 2012. We analyse aerosol optical depth measurements obtained with satellite and ground-based sensors over southwest Brazil and Bolivia for the dry season, from August to October. We find that observed dry season aerosol optical depths are more than a factor of two lower in years with low deforestation rates in Brazil. We used a global aerosol model to show that reductions in fires associated with deforestation have caused mean surface particulate matter concentrations to decline by ∼30% during the dry season in the region. Using particulate matter concentration response functions from the epidemiological literature, we estimate that this reduction in particulate matter may be preventing roughly 400 to 1,700 premature adult deaths annually across South America.