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BackgroundThe UEFA Elite Club Injury Study is the largest and longest running injury surveillance programme in football.ObjectiveTo analyse the 18-season time trends in injury rates among male professional football players.Methods3302 players comprising 49 teams (19 countries) were followed from 2000–2001 through 2018–2019. Team medical staff recorded individual player exposure and time-loss injuries.ResultsA total of 11 820 time-loss injuries were recorded during 1 784 281 hours of exposure. Injury incidence fell gradually during the 18-year study period, 3% per season for both training injuries (95% CI 1% to 4% decrease, p=0.002) and match injuries (95% CI 2% to 3% decrease, p<0.001). Ligament injury incidence decreased 5% per season during training (95% CI 3% to 7% decrease, p<0.001) and 4% per season during match play (95% CI 3% to 6% decrease, p<0.001), while the rate of muscle injuries remained constant. The incidence of reinjuries decreased by 5% per season during both training (95% CI 2% to 8% decrease, p=0.001) and matches (95% CI 3% to 7% decrease, p<0.001). Squad availability increased by 0.7% per season for training sessions (95% CI 0.5% to 0.8% increase, p<0.001) and 0.2% per season for matches (95% CI 0.1% to 0.3% increase, p=0.001).ConclusionsOver 18 years: (1) injury incidence decreased in training and matches, (2) reinjury rates decreased, and (3) player availability for training and match play increased.

ObjectivesThe objective was to describe the typical duration of absence following the most common injury diagnoses in professional football.MethodsInjuries were registered by medical staff members of football clubs participating in the Union of European Football Association Elite Club Injury Study. Duration of absence due to an injury was defined by the number of days that passed between the date of the injury occurrence and the date when the medical team allowed the player to return to full participation. In total, 22 942 injuries registered during 494 team-seasons were included in the study.ResultsThe 31 most common injury diagnoses constituted a total of 78 % of all reported injuries. Most of these injuries were either mild (leading to a median absence of 7 days or less, 6440 cases = 42%) or moderate (median absence: 7–28 days, 56% = 8518 cases) while only few (2% = 311 cases) were severe (median absence of >28 days). The mean duration of absence from training and competition was significantly different (p < 0.05) between index injuries and re-injuries for six diagnoses (Achilles tendon pain, calf muscle injury, groin adductor pain, hamstring muscle injuries and quadriceps muscle injury) with longer absence following re-injuries for all six diagnosesConclusionsThe majority of all time loss due to injuries in professional football stems from injuries with an individual absence of up to 4 weeks. This article can provide guidelines for expected time away from training and competition for the most common injury types as well as for its realistic range.

Computational models for predicting the early course of the COVID-19 pandemic played a central role in policy-making at regional and national levels. We performed a systematic review, data synthesis, and secondary validation of studies that reported on prediction models addressing the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden. A literature search in January 2021 based on the search triangle model identified 1672 peer-reviewed articles, preprints and reports. After applying inclusion criteria 52 studies remained out of which 12 passed a Risk of Bias Opinion Tool. When comparing model predictions with actual outcomes only 4 studies exhibited an acceptable forecast (mean absolute percentage error, MAPE < 20%). Models that predicted disease incidence could not be assessed due to the lack of reliable data during 2020. Drawing conclusions about the accuracy of the models with acceptable methodological quality was challenging because some models were published before the time period for the prediction, while other models were published during the prediction period or even afterwards. We conclude that the forecasting models involving Sweden developed during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 had limited accuracy. The knowledge attained in this study can be used to improve the preparedness for coming pandemics.

The transmission of COVID-19 is dependent on social mixing, the basic rate of which varies with sociodemographic, cultural, and geographic factors. Alterations in social mixing and subsequent changes in transmission dynamics eventually affect hospital admissions. We employ these observations to model and predict regional hospital admissions in Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use an SEIR-model for each region in Sweden in which the social mixing is assumed to depend on mobility data from public transport utilisation and locations for mobile phone usage. The results show that the model could capture the timing of the first and beginning of the second wave of the pandemic 3 weeks in advance without any additional assumptions about seasonality. Further, we show that for two major regions of Sweden, models with public transport data outperform models using mobile phone usage. We conclude that a model based on routinely collected mobility data makes it possible to predict future hospital admissions for COVID-19 3 weeks in advance.

The aim was to describe levels of subjective Health Literacy (HL), and to examine possible differences in prevalence proportions between sexes, age groups and level of educations among youth athletes and their mentors (coaches, parents/caregivers) in Swedish Athletics. Cross-sectional. Data on subjective HL were collected using the Swedish Communicative and Critical Health Literacy (S-CCHL) instrument for mentors and for youth the School-Aged Children (HLSAC) instrument. Questions assessing mentors’ literacy on sports injury and return to play were also included. The surveys were completed by 159 (91%) mentors and 143 youth athletes (87%). The level of S-CCHL was sufficient in 53% of the mentors. Of youth athletes, 28% reported a high level of HL and the item with least perceived high HL (21%) was critical thinking. Ninety-four percent of the mentors believed that it is quite possible to prevent injuries in athletics and 53% perceived having a very good knowledge about how to prevent injuries. Forty-six percent of the mentors perceived having a very good knowledge of return to sport criteria. The level of health literacy was low with about half of the mentors and one out of three youth athletes having adequate HL levels. Only half of the mentors stated having a good knowledge of various injury prevention strategies. To reduce health consequences in youth sport and enable talent development more work is needed to understand the facilitators and barriers for the uptake of various health promotion and injury prevention strategies.

We report on local nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalizations based on syndromic (symptom) data recorded in regular healthcare routines in Östergötland County (population ≈465,000), Sweden, early in the pandemic, when broad laboratory testing was unavailable. Daily nowcasts were supplied to the local healthcare management based on analyses of the time lag between telenursing calls with the chief complaints (cough by adult or fever by adult) and COVID-19 hospitalization. The complaint cough by adult showed satisfactory performance (Pearson correlation coefficient r>0.80; mean absolute percentage error <20%) in nowcasting the incidence of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations 14 days in advance until the incidence decreased to <1.5/100,000 population, whereas the corresponding performance for fever by adult was unsatisfactory. Our results support local nowcasting of hospitalizations on the basis of symptom data recorded in routine healthcare during the initial stage of a pandemic.

ObjectivesExternal risk factors connected to club, team and coaching are believed to be important in the causation of hamstring injuries, but little is known about the preventive measures used. The objective was to analyse the association between preventive factors and hamstring muscle injury burden.Methods14 teams participated in the Union of European Football Associations Champions/Europa Leagues from 2019/2020 to 2022/2023. An open question was sent out in January 2023 to the four teams with the lowest hamstring muscle injury burden, asking why their teams had successfully avoided hamstring muscle injuries and which preventive methods they had used. A questionnaire that investigated the use of these methods was sent to all 14 teams in February 2023. A multiple linear regression model was applied, using injury burden as an outcome variable and the questionnaire responses as possible explanatory variables possibly adjusted for team and season.ResultsThe preventive methods included factors such as the level of communication between the coach, the medical staff and the performance staff. The adjusted multiple linear regression model indicated that communication between the medical staff and the performance staff was negatively associated with an increased hamstring muscle injury burden, where for every ‘higher’ grade of the communication variable, the average injury burden decreased by 4.1 (95% CI −8.2 to −0.04, p=0.048) days per 1000 hours.ConclusionsBetter communication between the medical and the performance staff and continuous involvement of the medical staff in load management was associated with a lower hamstring injury burden in male professional football teams.

The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008-February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011-12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was satisfactory for influenza seasons in 2 of the counties but poor in 1 county. Local influenza nowcasting was satisfactory for seasonal influenza in 2 of 3 counties. The less satisfactory performance in 1 of the study counties might be attributable to population mixing with a neighboring metropolitan area.

Background Recurrence is a problem for many patients who have episodes of depression. In experimental settings, hyporeactivity in the Electrodermal Orienting Reactivity (EDOR) test has been observed to be more frequent in these patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical value of this test with regard to a prognosis of episode recurrence in patients hospitalized for depression. Methods The study was performed using a cohort design at a specialized psychiatric clinic in Warsaw, Poland. The primary endpoint measure was relapse or recurrence of depression. Data on electrodermal reactivity measured by the EDOR test, clinical status, and psychiatric history were collected at the clinic. Relapse and recurrence data were collected by clinical interviews 1 year after the EDOR test. The predictive (adjusting for confounders) and comparative (relative to other predictors) performance of electrodermal hyporeactivity was assessed using simple and multiple binary logistic regression. Results The patient sample included 97 patients aged between 20 and 81 years (mean, 51.2 years). Twenty patients (20.6%) were hyporeactive in the EDOR test. The group of hyporeactive patients did not differ significantly from the reactive group with regard to background factors or clinical status on admission. Forty-seven patients (51.6%) had at least one depressive episode during the follow-up period. In the analysis including potential confounders, the likelihood of relapse or recurrence of depression was nearly five times higher among the hyporeactive patients than the reactive patients (odds ratio [OR], 4.7; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.3–16.2; p  = 0.015). In the comparative analysis, only hyporeactivity was found to be associated with recurring episodes (OR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.1–10.2; p  = 0.036). Conclusions Electrodermal hyporeactivity was associated with a higher risk of relapse or recurrence after discharge among patients hospitalized for depression. This finding warrants further clinical investigations that cover different types of depression and account for causal mechanisms. Trial registration The study design was registered in the German Clinical Trials Register ( DRKS00010082 ).

Failure to incorporate the beliefs and attitudes of the public into theoretical models of preparedness has been identified as a weakness in strategies to mitigate infectious disease outbreaks. We administered a cross-sectional telephone survey to a representative sample (n = 443) of the Swedish adult population to examine whether self-reported intentions to improve personal hygiene and increase social distancing during influenza outbreaks could be explained by trust in official information, self-reported health (SF-8), sociodemographic factors, and determinants postulated in protection motivation theory, namely threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The interviewees were asked to make their appraisals for two scenarios: a) an influenza with low case fatality and mild lifestyle impact; b) severe influenza with high case fatality and serious disturbances of societal functions. Every second respondent (50.0%) reported high trust in official information about influenza. The proportion that reported intentions to take deliberate actions to improve personal hygiene during outbreaks ranged between 45-85%, while less than 25% said that they intended to increase social distancing. Multiple logistic regression models with coping appraisal as the explanatory factor most frequently contributing to the explanation of the variance in intentions showed strong discriminatory performance for staying home while not ill (mild outbreaks: Area under the curve [AUC] 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.82;0.89), severe outbreaks AUC 0.82 (95% CI 0.77;0.85)) and acceptable performance with regard to avoiding public transportation (AUC 0.78 (0.74;0.82), AUC 0.77 (0.72;0.82)), using handwash products (AUC 0.70 (0.65;0.75), AUC 0.76 (0.71;0.80)), and frequently washing hands (AUC 0.71 (0.66;0.76), AUC 0.75 (0.71;0.80)). We conclude that coping appraisal was the explanatory factor most frequently included in statistical models explaining self-reported intentions to carry out non-pharmaceutical health actions in the Swedish outlined context, and that variations in threat appraisal played a smaller role in these models despite scientific uncertainties surrounding a recent mass vaccination campaign.