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Notwithstanding current heavy dependence on gas-fired electricity generation in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), hydropower is expected to play an essential role in improving electricity access in the region. Expansion planning of electricity infrastructure is critical to support investment and maintaining balanced consumer electricity prices. Variations in water availability due to a changing climate could leave hydro infrastructure stranded or result in underutilization of available resources. In this study, we develop a framework consisting of long-term models for electricity supply and water systems management, to assess the vulnerability of potential expansion plans to the effects of climate change. We find that the most resilient EAPP rollout strategy corresponds to a plan optimised for a slightly wetter climate compared to historical trends. This study demonstrates that failing to climate-proof infrastructure investments can result in significant electricity price fluctuations in selected countries (Uganda & Tanzania) while others, such as Egypt, are less vulnerable. Hydropower generation in the Nile River Basin is vulnerable to climatic changes. Here, the authors assess infrastructure resilience of the Eastern African power pool (EAPP) to the effects of a changing climate and suggest that failing to climate-proof infrastructure investments can result in significant electricity price fluctuations.

Population growth, urbanization and economic development drive the use of resources. Securing access to essential services such as energy, water, and food, while achieving sustainable development, require that policy and planning processes follow an integrated approach. The ‘Climate-, Land-, Energy- and Water-systems’ (CLEWs) framework assists the exploration of interactions between (and within) CLEW systems via quantitative means. The approach was first introduced by the International Atomic Energy Agency to conduct an integrated systems analysis of a biofuel chain. The framework assists the exploration of interactions between (and within) CLEW systems via quantitative means. Its multi-institutional application to the case of Mauritius in 2012 initiated the deployment of the framework. A vast number of completed and ongoing applications of CLEWs span different spatial and temporal scales, discussing two or more resource interactions under different political contexts. Also, the studies vary in purpose. This shapes the methods that support CLEWs-type analyses. In this paper, we detail the main steps of the CLEWs framework in perspective to its application over the years. We summarise and compare key applications, both published in the scientific literature, as working papers and reports by international organizations. We discuss differences in terms of geographic scope, purpose, interactions represented, analytical approach and stakeholder involvement. In addition, we review other assessments, which contributed to the advancement of the CLEWs framework. The paper delivers recommendations for the future development of the framework, as well as keys to success in this type of evaluations.

Africa’s economic and population growth prospects are likely to increase energy and water demands. This quantitative study shows that energy decarbonisation pathways reduce water withdrawals (WWs) and water consumption (WC) relative to the baseline scenario. However, the more aggressive decarbonisation pathway (1.5 °C) leads to higher overall WWs than the 2.0 °C scenario but lower WC levels by 2065. By 2065, investments in low-carbon energy infrastructure increase annual WWs from 1% (52 bcm) in the 2.0 °C to 2% (85 bcm) in the 1.5 °C scenarios of total renewable water resources in Africa compared to 3% (159 bcm) in the baseline scenario with lower final energy demands in the mitigation scenarios. WC decreases from 1.2 bcm in the 2.0 °C to 1 bcm in the 1.5 °C scenario, compared to 2.2 bcm in the baseline scenario by 2065, due to the lower water intensity of the low-carbon energy systems. To meet the 1.5 °C pathway, the energy sector requires a higher WW than the 2.0 °C scenario, both in total and per unit of final energy. Overall, these findings demonstrate the crucial role of integrated water-energy planning, and the need for joined-up carbon policy and water resources management for the continent to achieve climate-compatible growth.

Laos, the world’s second-largest net electricity exporter, faces dual challenges in its energy and agricultural sectors. While the country exports significant hydroelectric power to neighbouring nations, it remains dependent on electricity imports during dry seasons at unfavourable prices. Concurrently, Laos imports all its chemical nitrogenous fertilisers, exposing its agricultural sector to global price volatility. This study explores the potential of redirecting surplus electricity towards green ammonia production to address both issues. Using an open-source capacity expansion model of the Lao power sector, we analyse scenarios considering different power expansion plans and climate-induced variations in hydropower generation. Our results indicate that Laos could produce ∼1 Mt of green ammonia annually by 2030, potentially reaching ∼2 Mt by 2050. This production could satisfy domestic fertiliser demand and create export opportunities. Climate variability could significantly impact production potential, with dry conditions reducing production by 26% and wet conditions increasing it by 50% relative to the base scenario. Additional scenarios incorporating non-hydro renewable energy sources like solar PV and Wind and the transfer of power capacity into the control of the Lao government, post the termination of concessionary agreements, show potential for doubled production. The study emphasises the importance of climate-resilient infrastructure planning and regulatory frameworks for successful implementation. This research contributes to Laos’ ongoing efforts to develop its first national green hydrogen and ammonia roadmap, positioning it as a pioneer among Least Developed Countries in fossil-free hydrogen and ammonia production.

Despite the excitement around the nexus between land, energy and water resource systems, policies enacted to govern and use these resources are still formulated in isolation, without considering the interdependencies. Using a Ugandan case study, we highlight the impact that one policy change in the energy system will have on other resource systems. We focus on deforestation, long term electricity supply planning, crop production, water consumption, land-use change and climate impacting greenhouse gas (GHG) trajectories. In this study, an open-source integrated modelling framework is used to map the ripple effects of a policy change related to reducing biomass consumption. We find that, despite the reduction in deforestation of woodlands and forests, the GHG emissions in the power sector are expected to increase in between 2040-2050, owing to higher fossil fuel usage. This policy change is also likely to increase the cost of electricity generation, which in turn affects the agricultural land types. There is an unforeseen shift from irrigated to rainfed type land due to higher electricity costs. With this integrated model setup for Uganda, we highlight the need for integrated policy planning that takes into consideration the interlinkages between the resource systems and cross propagation effects.

The production and use of fossil fuels need to decline rapidly to limit global warming. Although global net-zero scenarios abound, the associated development ramifications for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries (LLMICs), as well as adequate international responses, have been underexplored. Here we conceptualize that, depending on country context, three types of development transition follow from declining fossil fuel production and use for LLMIC producers, namely an energy transition, an economic transition and an equitable fossil fuel production transition. We propose a classification of these transitions, arguing that heterogeneity in LLMICs’ fossil fuel production and usage substantially impacts their pathways towards low-carbon development. We illustrate this by discussing different cases of fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, focusing on Mozambique, India, Lao PDR and Angola. We conclude by detailing context-specific international support portfolios to foster low-carbon development in fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, and call for a re-orientation of international support along principles of global solidarity. Development ramifications of global decarbonization efforts for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries remain underexplored. This Perspective suggests three transition pathways for navigating these ramifications.

Population growth, urbanization and economic development drive the use of resources. Securing access to essential services such as energy, water, and food, while achieving sustainable development, require that policy and planning processes follow an integrated approach. The 'Climate-, Land-, Energy- and Water-systems' (CLEWs) framework assists the exploration of interactions between (and within) CLEW systems via quantitative means. The approach was first introduced by the International Atomic Energy Agency to conduct an integrated systems analysis of a biofuel chain. The framework assists the exploration of interactions between (and within) CLEW systems via quantitative means. Its multi-institutional application to the case of Mauritius in 2012 initiated the deployment of the framework. A vast number of completed and ongoing applications of CLEWs span different spatial and temporal scales, discussing two or more resource interactions under different political contexts. Also, the studies vary in purpose. This shapes the methods that support CLEWs-type analyses. In this paper, we detail the main steps of the CLEWs framework in perspective to its application over the years. We summarise and compare key applications, both published in the scientific literature, as working papers and reports by international organizations. We discuss differences in terms of geographic scope, purpose, interactions represented, analytical approach and stakeholder involvement. In addition, we review other assessments, which contributed to the advancement of the CLEWs framework. The paper delivers recommendations for the future development of the framework, as well as keys to success in this type of evaluations.

With less than 3% of agricultural cropland under irrigation, subsistence farmers in Uganda are dependent on seasonal precipitation for crop production. The majority of crops grown in the country—especially staple food crops like Matooke (Plantains)—are sensitive to the availability of water throughout their growing period and hence vulnerable to climatic impacts. In response to these challenges, the Government has developed an ambitious irrigation master plan. However, the energy implications of implementing the plan have not been explored in detail. This article attempts to address three main issues involving the nexus between water, energy, crop production, and climate. The first one explores the impact of climate on rain-fed crop production. The second explores the irrigation crop water needs under selected climate scenarios. The third focuses on the energy implications of implementing the irrigation master plan. We attempt to answer the above questions using a water balance model for Uganda developed for this study. Our results, developed at a catchment level, indicate that on average there could be an 11% reduction and 8% increase in rain-fed crop production in the cumulatively driest and wettest climates, respectively. Furthermore, in the identified driest climate, the electricity required for pumping water is expected to increase by 12% on average compared to the base scenario.

Having trained several underprivileged children, some of whom have represented India in the Olympic hockey games, the coach was rewarded for his 35 years of service.

Energy system modelling can be used to develop internally consistent quantified scenarios. These provide key insights needed to mobilise finance, understand market development, infrastructure deployment, the associated role of institutions, and generally support improved policymaking. However, access to data is often a barrier to starting energy system modelling, especially in developing countries, thereby causing delays to decision making. Therefore, this article provides data that can be used to create a simple zero-order energy system model for a range of developing countries in Africa, East Asia, and South America, which can act as a starting point for further model development and scenario analysis. The data are collected entirely from publicly available and accessible sources, including the websites and databases of international organisations, journal articles, and existing modelling studies. This means that the datasets can be easily updated based on the latest available information or more detailed and accurate local data. As an example, these data were also used to calibrate a simple energy system model for Kenya using the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) and three stylized scenarios (Fossil Future, Least Cost and Net Zero by 2050) for 2020-2050. The assumptions used and the results of these scenarios are presented in the appendix as an illustrative example of what can be done with these data. This simple model can be adapted and further developed by in-country analysts and academics, providing a platform for future work.