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The Arctic has seen rapid sea-ice decline in the past three decades, whilst warming at about twice the global average rate. Yet the relationship between Arctic warming and sea-ice loss is not well understood. Here, we present evidence that trends in summertime atmospheric circulation may have contributed as much as 60% to the September sea-ice extent decline since 1979. A tendency towards a stronger anticyclonic circulation over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean with a barotropic structure in the troposphere increased the downwelling longwave radiation above the ice by warming and moistening the lower troposphere. Model experiments, with reanalysis data constraining atmospheric circulation, replicate the observed thermodynamic response and indicate that the near-surface changes are dominated by circulation changes rather than feedbacks from the changing sea-ice cover. Internal variability dominates the Arctic summer circulation trend and may be responsible for about 30–50% of the overall decline in September sea ice since 1979. The Arctic is warming and sea ice is declining, but how the two link is unclear. This study shows changes in summertime atmospheric circulation and internal variability may have caused up to 60% of September sea-ice decline since 1979.

Recent ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has been caused by ocean melting of ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea. Eastward wind anomalies at the shelf break enhance the import of warm Circumpolar Deep Water onto the Amundsen Sea continental shelf, which creates transient melting anomalies with an approximately decadal period. No anthropogenic influence on this process has been established. Here, we combine observations and climate model simulations to suggest that increased greenhouse gas forcing caused shelf-break winds to transition from mean easterlies in the 1920s to the near-zero mean zonal winds of the present day. Strong internal climate variability, primarily linked to the tropical Pacific, is superimposed on this forced trend. We infer that the Amundsen Sea experienced decadal ocean variability throughout the twentieth century, with warm anomalies gradually becoming more prevalent, offering a credible explanation for the ongoing ice loss. Existing climate model projections show that strong future greenhouse gas forcing creates persistent mean westerly shelf-break winds by 2100, suggesting a further enhancement of warm ocean anomalies. These wind changes are weaker under a scenario in which greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized.

Significant summer warming over the eastern Antarctic Peninsula in the last 50 years has been attributed to a strengthening of the circumpolar westerlies, widely believed to be anthropogenic in origin. On the western side of the peninsula, significant warming has occurred mainly in austral winter and has been attributed to the reduction of sea ice. The authors show that austral fall is the only season in which spatially extensive warming has occurred on the Antarctic Peninsula. This is accompanied by a significant reduction of sea ice cover off the west coast. In winter and spring, warming is mainly observed on the west side of the peninsula. The most important large-scale forcing of the significant widespread warming trend in fall is the extratropical Rossby wave train associated with tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Winter and spring warming on the western peninsula reflects the persistence of sea ice anomalies arising from the tropically forced atmospheric circulation changes in austral fall.

Oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios in polar precipitation are widely used as proxies for local temperature. In combination, oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios also provide information on sea surface temperature at the oceanic moisture source locations where polar precipitation originates. Temperature reconstructions obtained from ice-core records generally rely on linear approximations of the relationships among local temperature, source temperature, and water-isotope values. However, there are important nonlinearities that significantly affect such reconstructions, particularly for source region temperatures. Here, we describe a relatively simple water-isotope distillation model and a novel temperature reconstruction method that accounts for these nonlinearities. Further, we examine in detail many of the parameters, assumptions, and uncertainties that underlie water-isotope distillation models and their influence on these temperature reconstructions. We provide new reconstructions of absolute surface temperature, condensation temperature, and source region evaporation temperature for all long Antarctic ice-core records for which the necessary data are available. These reconstructions differ from previous estimates due to both our new model and reconstruction technique, the influence of which is investigated directly. We also provide thorough uncertainty estimates for all temperature histories. Our reconstructions constrain the pattern and magnitude of polar amplification in the past and reveal asymmetries in the temperature histories of East and West Antarctica.

Human-induced climate change is usually assumed to be responsible for the dramatic thawing of glaciers since the mid 1990s in Greenland and northeastern Canada; approximately half of the observed warming in this region during this period is now found to be attributable to atmospheric circulation changes that may be of natural origin. Arctic warming driven by change in the tropics Greenland and northeastern Canada experienced some of the most rapid warming of the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, with human-induced climate change usually assumed to be in play. Qinghua Ding et al . show that about half of the observed warming can be attributed to changes in sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean which in turn influence the large-scale atmospheric circulation that moves warm air from the tropics to Greenland and northeastern Canada. Further research will be needed to establish whether or not the Pacific changes themselves are a response to the effects of human activity on the climate system. Rapid Arctic warming and sea-ice reduction in the Arctic Ocean are widely attributed to anthropogenic climate change 1 , 2 , 3 . The Arctic warming exceeds the global average warming because of feedbacks that include sea-ice reduction 4 , 5 and other dynamical and radiative feedbacks 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 . We find that the most prominent annual mean surface and tropospheric warming in the Arctic since 1979 has occurred in northeastern Canada and Greenland. In this region, much of the year-to-year temperature variability is associated with the leading mode of large-scale circulation variability in the North Atlantic, namely, the North Atlantic Oscillation 14 , 15 . Here we show that the recent warming in this region is strongly associated with a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is a response to anomalous Rossby wave-train activity originating in the tropical Pacific. Atmospheric model experiments forced by prescribed tropical sea surface temperatures simulate the observed circulation changes and associated tropospheric and surface warming over northeastern Canada and Greenland. Experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (ref. 16 ) models with prescribed anthropogenic forcing show no similar circulation changes related to the North Atlantic Oscillation or associated tropospheric warming. This suggests that a substantial portion of recent warming in the northeastern Canada and Greenland sector of the Arctic arises from unforced natural variability.

The Pacific sector of Antarctica, including both the Antarctic Peninsula and continental West Antarctica, has experienced substantial warming in the past 30 years. An increase in the circumpolar westerlies, owing in part to the decline in stratospheric ozone concentrations since the late 1970s, may account for warming trends in the peninsula region in austral summer and autumn. The more widespread warming in continental West Antarctica (Ellsworth Land and Marie Byrd Land) occurs primarily in austral winter and spring, and remains unexplained. Here we use observations of Antarctic surface temperature and global sea surface temperature, and atmospheric circulation data to show that recent warming in continental West Antarctica is linked to sea surface temperature changes in the tropical Pacific. Over the past 30 years, anomalous sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have generated an atmospheric Rossby wave response that influences atmospheric circulation over the Amundsen Sea, causing increased advection of warm air to the Antarctic continent. General circulation model experiments show that the central tropical Pacific is a critical region for producing the observed high latitude response. We conclude that, by affecting the atmospheric circulation at high southern latitudes, increasing tropical sea surface temperatures may account for West Antarctic warming through most of the twentieth century. The Pacific sector of Antarctica has experienced substantial warming in the past 30 years. Observations of global surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation data show that the warming in continental West Antarctica is linked to sea surface temperature changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The Last Interglacial (LIG), a warmer period 130,000–116,000 years before present, is a potential analogue for future climate change. Stronger LIG summertime insolation at high northern latitudes drove Arctic land summer temperatures 4–5 °C higher than in the pre-industrial era. Climate model simulations have previously failed to capture these elevated temperatures, possibly because they were unable to correctly capture LIG sea-ice changes. Here, we show that the latest version of the fully coupled UK Hadley Center climate model (HadGEM3) simulates a more accurate Arctic LIG climate, including elevated temperatures. Improved model physics, including a sophisticated sea-ice melt-pond scheme, result in a complete simulated loss of Arctic sea ice in summer during the LIG, which has yet to be simulated in past generations of models. This ice-free Arctic yields a compelling solution to the long-standing puzzle of what drove LIG Arctic warmth and supports a fast retreat of future Arctic summer sea ice.Arctic climate in the Last Interglacial (LIG)—a warm period 130,000–116,000 years ago—is poorly simulated by modern climate models. A model with improved sea-ice melt-pond physics reproduces LIG Arctic temperatures, suggests an ice-free Arctic during this period and predicts the same by 2035.

Perturbations in the southern annular mode (SAM) are shown to be significantly correlated with SST anomalies in the central tropical Pacific during austral winter and SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific during austral summer. The SAM signature in the Pacific sector resembles a tropically forced Rossby wave train, the so-called Pacific–South American pattern, while the signature in the Indian Ocean sector is a zonally elongated meridional dipole. Thus, the SAM contains strong zonally asymmetric variability and tends to behave differently in the Eastern and Western Hemispheres, with internal dynamics prevailing in the Indian Ocean sector and the forced response to tropical SST anomalies exerting a strong influence in the Pacific sector. The tropically forced component of the SAM in the Pacific sector is related to a geographically fixed active Rossby wave source to the east of Australia within the core of the subtropical jet. In addition to the well-documented positive trend in summer, the SAM also exhibits a negative wintertime trend since 1979, characterized by prominent geopotential height increases over the high latitudes. In both seasons, SAM trends are closely linked to long-term trends in tropical Pacific SST that are independent of the canonical eastern Pacific ENSO variability. Although the SAM is an intrinsic pattern of high-latitude variability, the SAM index reflects the superposition of both high-latitude and tropically forced variability.

The relative contribution and physical drivers of internal variability in recent Arctic sea ice loss remain open questions, leaving up for debate whether global climate models used for climate projection lack sufficient sensitivity in the Arctic to climate forcing. Here, through analysis of large ensembles of fully coupled climate model simulations with historical radiative forcing, we present an important internal mechanism arising from low-frequency Arctic atmospheric variability in models that can cause substantial summer sea ice melting in addition to that due to anthropogenic forcing. This simulated internal variability shows a strong similarity to the observed Arctic atmospheric change in the past 37 years. Through a fingerprint pattern matching method, we estimate that this internal variability contributes to about 40–50% of observed multi-decadal decline in Arctic sea ice. Our study also suggests that global climate models may not actually underestimate sea ice sensitivities in the Arctic, but have trouble fully replicating an observed linkage between the Arctic and lower latitudes in recent decades. Further improvements in simulating the observed Arctic–global linkage are thus necessary before the Arctic’s sensitivity to global warming in models can be quantified with confidence.

The mid-latitude westerly winds of the Southern Hemisphere play a central role in the global climate system via Southern Ocean upwelling 1 , carbon exchange with the deep ocean 2 , Agulhas leakage (transport of Indian Ocean waters into the Atlantic) 3 and possibly Antarctic ice-sheet stability 4 . Meridional shifts of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds have been hypothesized to occur 5 , 6 in parallel with the well-documented shifts of the intertropical convergence zone 7 in response to Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events— abrupt North Atlantic climate change events of the last ice age. Shifting moisture pathways to West Antarctica 8 are consistent with this view but may represent a Pacific teleconnection pattern forced from the tropics 9 . The full response of the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to the DO cycle and its impact on Antarctic temperature remain unclear 10 . Here we use five ice cores synchronized via volcanic markers to show that the Antarctic temperature response to the DO cycle can be understood as the superposition of two modes: a spatially homogeneous oceanic ‘bipolar seesaw’ mode that lags behind Northern Hemisphere climate by about 200 years, and a spatially heterogeneous atmospheric mode that is synchronous with abrupt events in the Northern Hemisphere. Temperature anomalies of the atmospheric mode are similar to those associated with present-day Southern Annular Mode variability, rather than the Pacific–South American pattern. Moreover, deuterium-excess records suggest a zonally coherent migration of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds over all ocean basins in phase with Northern Hemisphere climate. Our work provides a simple conceptual framework for understanding circum-Antarctic temperature variations forced by abrupt Northern Hemisphere climate change. We provide observational evidence of abrupt shifts in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds, which have previously documented 1 – 3 ramifications for global ocean circulation and atmospheric carbon dioxide. These coupled changes highlight the necessity of a global, rather than a purely North Atlantic, perspective on the DO cycle. The position of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds responds immediately to abrupt North Atlantic climate events of the last ice age, with a spatially heterogeneous impact on Antarctic climate.