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Functional capacity is an important component of risk assessment for major surgery. Doctors' clinical subjective assessment of patients' functional capacity has uncertain accuracy. We did a study to compare preoperative subjective assessment with alternative markers of fitness (cardiopulmonary exercise testing [CPET], scores on the Duke Activity Status Index [DASI] questionnaire, and serum N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT pro-BNP] concentrations) for predicting death or complications after major elective non-cardiac surgery. We did a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study at 25 hospitals: five in Canada, seven in the UK, ten in Australia, and three in New Zealand. We recruited adults aged at least 40 years who were scheduled for major non-cardiac surgery and deemed to have one or more risk factors for cardiac complications (eg, a history of heart failure, stroke, or diabetes) or coronary artery disease. Functional capacity was subjectively assessed in units of metabolic equivalents of tasks by the responsible anaesthesiologists in the preoperative assessment clinic, graded as poor (<4), moderate (4–10), or good (>10). All participants also completed the DASI questionnaire, underwent CPET to measure peak oxygen consumption, and had blood tests for measurement of NT pro-BNP concentrations. After surgery, patients had daily electrocardiograms and blood tests to measure troponin and creatinine concentrations until the third postoperative day or hospital discharge. The primary outcome was death or myocardial infarction within 30 days after surgery, assessed in all participants who underwent both CPET and surgery. Prognostic accuracy was assessed using logistic regression, receiver-operating-characteristic curves, and net risk reclassification. Between March 1, 2013, and March 25, 2016, we included 1401 patients in the study. 28 (2%) of 1401 patients died or had a myocardial infarction within 30 days of surgery. Subjective assessment had 19·2% sensitivity (95% CI 14·2–25) and 94·7% specificity (93·2–95·9) for identifying the inability to attain four metabolic equivalents during CPET. Only DASI scores were associated with predicting the primary outcome (adjusted odds ratio 0·96, 95% CI 0·83–0·99; p=0·03). Subjectively assessed functional capacity should not be used for preoperative risk evaluation. Clinicians could instead consider a measure such as DASI for cardiac risk assessment. Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, Ontario Ministry of Research, Innovation and Science, UK National Institute of Academic Anaesthesia, UK Clinical Research Collaboration, Australian and New Zealand College of Anaesthetists, and Monash University.

The systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) may be triggered by endotoxin. Humans have antibodies directed against the core of endotoxin (endotoxin core antibodies, EndoCAb) that appear to be protective following surgery and in sepsis. We hypothesised that children with elevated antibodies to endotoxin core would be less likely to develop SIRS in their initial period on intensive care. Because of the existing literature we defined two sub-groups according to the primary reason for ICU admission: infection and non-infection. We recruited 139 consecutive patients admitted to a paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) with more than one organ failure for longer than 12 h as part of another study. Patients were classified on admission to PICU as having an infectious or a non-infections diagnosis. The occurrence of SIRS within 48 h of admission was recorded along with detailed clinical and demographic data, EndoCAb concentration and the potential confounding variables C-reactive protein and mannose-binding lectin. In the 71 patients admitted without infection (primarily post-operative and head injured) IgG EndoCAb was significantly lower in patients who developed SIRS than those who did not (72 vs. 131 MU/ml), independent of potential confounding variables. In patients with infection there was no significant difference in IgG EndoCAb between children developing SIRS and those who did not (111 vs. 80 MU/ml). Head injured and post-operative patients admitted to PICU who develop early SIRS have significantly lower serum IgG EndoCAb levels than those who do not.