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Aviation emissions that are dispersed into the Earth's atmosphere affect the climate and air pollution, with significant spatiotemporal variation owing to heterogeneous aircraft activity. In this paper, we use historical flight trajectories derived from Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast (ADS-B) telemetry and reanalysis weather data for 2019–2021 to develop the Global Aviation emissions Inventory based on ADS-B (GAIA). In 2019, 40.2 million flights collectively travelled 61 billion kilometres using 283 Tg of fuel, leading to CO2, NOX and non-volatile particulate matter (nvPM) mass and number emissions of 893 Tg, 4.49 Tg, 21.4 Gg and 2.8 × 1026 respectively. Global responses to COVID-19 led to reductions in the annual flight distance flown and CO2 and NOX emissions in 2020 (−43 %, −48 % and −50 % respectively relative to 2019) and 2021 (−31 %, −41 % and −43 % respectively), with significant regional variability. Short-haul flights with durations < 3 h accounted for 83 % of all flights but only for 35 % of the 2019 CO2 emissions, while long-haul flights with durations > 6 h (5 % of all flights) were responsible for 43 % of CO2 and 49 % of NOX emissions. Globally, the actual flight trajectories flown are, on average, ∼ 5 % greater than the great circle path between the origin and destination airports, but this varies by region and flight distance. An evaluation of 8705 unique flights between London and Singapore showed large variabilities in the flight trajectory profile, fuel consumption and emission indices. GAIA captures the spatiotemporal distribution of aviation activity and emissions and is provided for use in future studies to evaluate the negative externalities arising from global aviation.

Around 5 % of anthropogenic radiative forcing (RF) is attributed to aviation CO2 and non-CO2 impacts. This paper quantifies aviation emissions and contrail climate forcing in the North Atlantic, one of the world's busiest air traffic corridors, over 5 years. Between 2016 and 2019, growth in CO2 (+3.13 % yr−1) and nitrogen oxide emissions (+4.5 % yr−1) outpaced increases in flight distance (+3.05 % yr−1). Over the same period, the annual mean contrail cirrus net RF (204–280 mW m−2) showed significant inter-annual variability caused by variations in meteorology. Responses to COVID-19 caused significant reductions in flight distance travelled (−66 %), CO2 emissions (−71 %) and the contrail net RF (−66 %) compared with the prior 1-year period. Around 12 % of all flights in this region cause 80 % of the annual contrail energy forcing, and the factors associated with strongly warming/cooling contrails include seasonal changes in meteorology and radiation, time of day, background cloud fields, and engine-specific non-volatile particulate matter (nvPM) emissions. Strongly warming contrails in this region are generally formed in wintertime, close to the tropopause, between 15:00 and 04:00 UTC, and above low-level clouds. The most strongly cooling contrails occur in the spring, in the upper troposphere, between 06:00 and 15:00 UTC, and without lower-level clouds. Uncertainty in the contrail cirrus net RF (216–238 mW m−2) arising from meteorology in 2019 is smaller than the inter-annual variability. The contrail RF estimates are most sensitive to the humidity fields, followed by nvPM emissions and aircraft mass assumptions. This longitudinal evaluation of aviation contrail impacts contributes a quantified understanding of inter-annual variability and informs strategies for contrail mitigation.

The current best-estimate of the global annual mean radiative forcing (RF) attributable to contrail cirrus is thought to be 3 times larger than the RF from aviation's cumulative CO2 emissions. Here, we simulate the global contrail RF for 2019–2021 using reanalysis weather data and improved engine emission estimates along actual flight trajectories derived from Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast telemetry. Our 2019 global annual mean contrail net RF (62.1 mW m−2) is 44 % lower than current best estimates for 2018 (111 [33, 189] mW m−2, 95 % confidence interval). Regionally, the contrail net RF is largest over Europe (876 mW m−2) and the USA (414 mW m−2), while the RF values over East Asia (64 mW m−2) and China (62 mW m−2) are close to the global average, because fewer flights in these regions form persistent contrails resulting from lower cruise altitudes and limited ice supersaturated regions in the subtropics due to the Hadley Circulation. Globally, COVID-19 reduced the flight distance flown and contrail net RF in 2020 (−43 % and −56 %, respectively, relative to 2019) and 2021 (−31 % and −49 %, respectively) with significant regional variations. Around 14 % of all flights in 2019 formed a contrail with a net warming effect, yet only 2 % of all flights caused 80 % of the annual contrail energy forcing. The spatiotemporal patterns of the most strongly warming and cooling contrail segments can be attributed to flight scheduling, engine particle number emissions, tropopause height, and background radiation fields. Our contrail RF estimates are most sensitive to corrections applied to the global humidity fields, followed by assumptions on the engine particle number emissions, and are least sensitive to radiative heating effects on the contrail plume and contrail–contrail overlapping. Using this sensitivity analysis, we estimate that the 2019 global contrail net RF could range between 34.8 and 74.8 mW m−2.

London introduced the world’s most stringent emissions zone, the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ), in April 2019 to reduce air pollutant emissions from road transport and accelerate compliance with the EU air quality standards. Combining meteorological normalisation, change point detection, and a regression discontinuity design with time as the forcing variable, we provide an ex-post causal analysis of air quality improvements attributable to the London ULEZ. We observe that the ULEZ caused only small improvements in air quality in the context of a longer-term downward trend in London’s air pollution levels. Structural changes in nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and ozone (O 3 ) concentrations were detected at 70% and 24% of the (roadside and background) monitoring sites and amongst the sites that showed a response, the relative changes in air pollution ranged from −9% to 6% for NO 2 , −5% to 4% for O 3 , and −6% to 4% for particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ). Aggregating the responses across London, we find an average reduction of less than 3% for NO 2 concentrations, and insignificant effects on O 3 and PM 2.5 concentrations. As other cities consider implementing similar schemes, this study implies that the ULEZ on its own is not an effective strategy in the sense that the marginal causal effects were small. On the other hand, the ULEZ is one of many policies implemented to tackle air pollution in London, and in combination these have led to improvements in air quality that are clearly observable. Thus, reducing air pollution requires a multi-faceted set of policies that aim to reduce emissions across sectors with coordination among local, regional and national government.

The radiative characteristics and lifetimes of contrails are dependent on the number concentration of ice-forming particles in the engine exhaust plume. Aircraft gas turbine engines produce a variety of particles, yet it is understood that non-volatile black carbon aggregates are the dominant source of ice-forming particles with typical, fossil-derived jet fuel. However, with cleaner combustion technologies and the adoption of alternative fuels (e.g. hydrogen or synthetic aviation fuel), non-volatile black carbon particle emissions are expected to decrease or even be eliminated. Under these conditions, contrail properties will depend upon the concentration and characteristics of particles other than black carbon. Ultrafine (< 100 nm) jet lubrication oil droplets constitute a significant fraction of the total organic particulate matter released by aircraft; however, their ability to form contrail ice crystals has hitherto been unexplored. In this work, we experimentally investigate the activation and freezing behaviour of lubrication oil droplets using an expansion chamber, assessing their potential as ice-forming particles. We generate lubrication oil droplets with a geometric mean mobility diameter of (100.9 ± 0.6) nm and show that these activate to form water droplets, which subsequently freeze when the temperature is below ∼ 235 K. We find that nucleation on lubrication oil droplets should be considered in future computational studies – particularly under soot-poor conditions – and that these studies would benefit from particle size distribution measurements at cruise altitude. Overall, taking steps to reduce lubrication oil number emissions would help reduce the climate impact of contrail cirrus.

Global simulations suggest the mean annual contrail cirrus net radiative forcing is comparable to that of aviation's accumulated CO2 emissions. Currently, these simulations assume non-volatile particulate matter (nvPM) and ambient particles are the only source of condensation nuclei, omitting activation of volatile particulate matter (vPM) formed in the nascent plume. Here, we extend a microphysical model to include vPM and benchmark this against a more advanced parcel model (pyrcel) modified to treat contrail formation. We explore how the apparent emission index (EI) of contrail ice crystals (AEIice) scales with EInvPM, vPM properties, ambient temperature, and aircraft/fuel characteristics. We find model agreement within 10 %–30 % in the previously defined “soot-poor” regime. However, discrepancies increase non-linearly (up to 60 %) in the “soot-rich” regime, due to differing treatment of droplet growth. Both models predict that, in the “soot-poor” regime, AEIice approaches 1016 kg−1 for low ambient temperatures (< 210 K) and sulfur-rich vPM, which is comparable to estimates in the “soot-rich” regime. Moreover, our sensitivity analyses suggest that the point of transition between the “soot-poor” and “soot-rich” regimes is a dynamic threshold that ranges from 1013–1016 kg−1 and depends sensitively on ambient temperature and vPM properties, underlining the need for vPM emission characterisation measurements. We suggest that existing contrail simulations omitting vPM activation may underestimate AEIice, especially for flights powered by lean-burn engines. Furthermore, our results imply that, under these conditions, AEIice might be reduced by (i) reducing fuel sulfur content, (ii) minimising organic emissions, and/or (iii) avoiding cooler regions of the atmosphere.

Aviation emissions are not on a trajectory consistent with Paris Climate Agreement goals. We evaluate the extent to which fuel pathways—synthetic fuels from biomass, synthetic fuels from green hydrogen and atmospheric CO2, and the direct use of green liquid hydrogen—could lead aviation towards net-zero climate impacts. Together with continued efficiency gains and contrail avoidance, but without offsets, such an energy transition could reduce lifecycle aviation CO2 emissions by 89–94% compared with year-2019 levels, despite a 2–3-fold growth in demand by 2050. The aviation sector could manage the associated cost increases, with ticket prices rising by no more than 15% compared with a no-intervention baseline leading to demand suppression of less than 14%. These pathways will require discounted investments on the order of US$0.5–2.1 trillion over a 30 yr period. However, our pathways reduce aviation CO2-equivalent emissions by only 46–69%; more action is required to mitigate non-CO2 impacts.Decarbonization of the aviation sector is difficult due to increasing demand and the current lack of scalable mitigation technologies. This Analysis examines pathways towards a net-zero aviation system with improved fuel and aircraft technologies, efficiency gains and contrail avoidance.

The radiative forcing (RF) of contrail cirrus is substantial, though short-lived, uncertain, and heterogeneous, whereas the RF from CO₂ emissions is long-term and more predictable. To balance these impacts, we calculate the social costs of CO₂ and contrail cirrus using a modified Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) model, spanning three discount rates, two damage functions, and three climate pathways. The main case estimate of the global social cost ratio of contrail cirrus to aviation CO₂ emissions ranges from 0.075 to 0.57, depending on assumptions. Accounting for uncertainty in contrail cirrus RF and climate efficacy further widens this range. We also quantify flight-specific social costs of contrail cirrus by analyzing nearly 500,000 flights over the North Atlantic, revealing substantial variability due to meteorological conditions. While uncertainty is considerable, our findings suggest that carefully implemented operational contrail avoidance could offer climate benefits even when the social cost of additional CO₂ emissions is considered. This study quantifies the social costs of aviation’s CO₂ emissions and contrail cirrus. Targeting flights with high contrail cirrus impacts could substantially reduce aviation’s climate damages.

Observations of contrails are vital for improving our understanding of the contrail formation and life cycle, informing models, and assessing mitigation strategies. Here, we developed a methodology that utilises ground-based cameras for tracking and analysing young contrails (< 35 min) formed under clear-sky conditions, comparing these observations against reanalysis meteorology and simulations from the contrail cirrus prediction model (CoCiP) with actual flight trajectories. Our observations consist of 14 h of video footage recorded over 5 different days in Central London, capturing 1582 flight waypoints from 281 flights. The simulation correctly predicted contrail formation and absence for around 75 % of these waypoints, with incorrect contrail predictions occurring at warmer temperatures than those with true-positive predictions (7.8 K vs. 12.8 K below the Schmidt–Appleman criterion threshold temperature). When evaluating contrails with observed lifetimes of at least 2 min, the simulation's correct prediction rate for contrail formation increases to over 85 %. Among all waypoints with contrail observations, 78 % of short-lived contrails (observed lifetimes < 2 min) formed under ice-subsaturated conditions, whereas 75 % of persistent contrails (observed lifetimes > 10 min) formed under ice-supersaturated conditions. On average, the simulated contrail geometric width was around 100 m smaller than the observed (visible) width over its observed lifetime, with the mean underestimation reaching up to 280 m within the first 5 min. Discrepancies between the observed and simulated contrail formation, lifetime, and width can be associated with uncertainties in reanalysis meteorology due to known model limitations and sub-grid-scale variabilities, contrail model simplifications, uncertainties in aircraft performance estimates, and observational challenges, among other possible factors. Overall, this study demonstrates the potential of ground-based cameras to create essential observational and benchmark datasets for validating and improving existing weather and contrail models.

Contrails are ice clouds formed along aircraft flight tracks, responsible for much of aviation's climate warming impact. Ice-supersaturated regions (ISSRs) provide conditions where contrail ice crystals can persist, but meteorological models often mispredict their occurrence, limiting contrail modelling. This deficiency is often treated by applying local humidity corrections. However, model performance is also affected by synoptic conditions (such as extratropical depressions). Here, composites of ERA5 reanalysis data around North Atlantic extratropical depressions enable a link between their structure and ISSR modelling. ISSRs are structured by these systems: at flight levels, ISSRs occur less frequently in the dry intrusion – descending upper-tropospheric air – than above warm conveyors – where air is lifted. Both ERA5 reanalysis and in situ aircraft observations show this contrast, demonstrating that the model reproduces the fundamental relationship. Individual-ISSR modelling performance (quantified using interpretable metrics) is also structured. Of the rare ISSRs diagnosed in the location associated with the dry intrusion, fewer are confirmed by in situ observations (20 %–25 % precision drop compared to the warm conveyor) and fewer of those observed were diagnosed (13 %–19 % recall drop). Scaling humidity beyond the occurrence rate bias dramatically increases the recall at low precision cost, demonstrating the potential value of scaling approaches designed with different intentions. However, the failure of scaling to improve precision, or the performance in the dry intrusion, implies that there is a need to account for the synoptic weather situation and structure in order to improve ISSR forecasts in support of mitigating aviation's climate impact.