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"Stocchi, P."
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Decoding the Interplay Between Tidal Notch Geometry and Sea‐Level Variability During the Last Interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e) High Stand
2024
Relic coastal landforms (fossil corals, cemented intertidal deposits, or erosive features carved onto rock coasts) serve as sea‐level index points (SLIPs), that are widely used to reconstruct past sea‐level changes. Traditional SLIP‐based sea‐level reconstructions face challenges in capturing continuous sea‐level variability and dating erosional SLIPs, such as tidal notches. Here, we propose a novel approach to such challenges. We use a numerical model of cliff erosion embedded within a Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the most likely sea‐level scenarios responsible for shaping one of the best‐preserved tidal notches of Last Interglacial age in Sardinia, Italy. Results align with Glacial Isostatic Adjustment model predictions, indicating that synchronized or out‐of‐sync ice‐volume shifts in Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets can reproduce the notch morphology, with sea level confidently peaking at 6 m and only under a higher than present erosion regime. This new approach yields insight into sea‐level trends during the Last Interglacial. Plain Language Summary Scientists typically investigate the position of sea level in geological time using the elevation, age, and characteristics of fossil marine organisms living in shallow water (e.g., coral reefs), beach deposits, or erosional features that were formed near the sea level. However, these indicators offer only fragmented, if not only point‐like information in time and not a continuous sea‐level record. To overcome this issue, we use a numerical model that reconstructs the shape of tidal notches (i.e., indentations created close to sea level in carbonate cliffs). We compare model‐generated notch shapes with the real shape of the tidal notch, and we produce a set of continuous sea‐level histories that are more likely to have produced one of the best‐preserved fossil tidal notches in the Orosei Gulf, Sardinia, Italy, carved during the Last Interglacial highstand, 125.000 years ago. Our findings suggest that whether the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland melted at the same time or separately, both scenarios could reproduce the actual shape of the tidal notch we observe at present. Our findings indicate that the erosion rate during that period was higher than present and the sea level is very likely to have reached up to 6 m. Key Points Cliff erosion modeling and Monte Carlo analysis indicate tidal notch geometry can offer a continuous record of past sea level variability The geometry of Orosei’s tidal notch, Italy can be replicated through simultaneous or asynchronous Antarctic–Greenland ice melting scenarios The morphology of the Last Interglacial notch is more efficiently replicated using higher‐than‐present erosion rates and a 6 m sea‐level peak
Journal Article
The amplitude and origin of sea-level variability during the Pliocene epoch
2019
Earth is heading towards a climate that last existed more than three million years ago (Ma) during the ‘mid-Pliocene warm period’
1
, when atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were about 400 parts per million, global sea level oscillated in response to orbital forcing
2
,
3
and peak global-mean sea level (GMSL) may have reached about 20 metres above the present-day value
4
,
5
. For sea-level rise of this magnitude, extensive retreat or collapse of the Greenland, West Antarctic and marine-based sectors of the East Antarctic ice sheets is required. Yet the relative amplitude of sea-level variations within glacial–interglacial cycles remains poorly constrained. To address this, we calibrate a theoretical relationship between modern sediment transport by waves and water depth, and then apply the technique to grain size in a continuous 800-metre-thick Pliocene sequence of shallow-marine sediments from Whanganui Basin, New Zealand. Water-depth variations obtained in this way, after corrections for tectonic subsidence, yield cyclic relative sea-level (RSL) variations. Here we show that sea level varied on average by 13 ± 5 metres over glacial–interglacial cycles during the middle-to-late Pliocene (about 3.3–2.5 Ma). The resulting record is independent of the global ice volume proxy
3
(as derived from the deep-ocean oxygen isotope record) and sea-level cycles are in phase with 20-thousand-year (kyr) periodic changes in insolation over Antarctica, paced by eccentricity-modulated orbital precession
6
between 3.3 and 2.7 Ma. Thereafter, sea-level fluctuations are paced by the 41-kyr period of cycles in Earth’s axial tilt as ice sheets stabilize on Antarctica and intensify in the Northern Hemisphere
3
,
6
. Strictly, we provide the amplitude of RSL change, rather than absolute GMSL change. However, simulations of RSL change based on glacio-isostatic adjustment show that our record approximates eustatic sea level, defined here as GMSL unregistered to the centre of the Earth. Nonetheless, under conservative assumptions, our estimates limit maximum Pliocene sea-level rise to less than 25 metres and provide new constraints on polar ice-volume variability under the climate conditions predicted for this century.
Sea level varied by 13 ± 5 metres on average, but up to 25 metres, over glacial–interglacial cycles during the Pliocene epoch, due to partial collapses of Antarctic Ice Sheets.
Journal Article
Weak precipitation, warm winters and springs impact glaciers of south slopes of Mt. Everest (central Himalaya) in the last 2 decades (1994–2013)
2015
Studies on recent climate trends from the Himalayan range are limited, and even completely absent at high elevation (> 5000 m a.s.l.). This study specifically explores the southern slopes of Mt. Everest, analyzing the time series of temperature and precipitation reconstructed from seven stations located between 2660 and 5600 m a.s.l. during 1994–2013, complemented with the data from all existing ground weather stations located on both sides of the mountain range (Koshi Basin) over the same period. Overall we find that the main and most significant increase in temperature is concentrated outside of the monsoon period. Above 5000 m a.s.l. the increasing trend in the time series of minimum temperature (+0.072 °C yr−1) is much stronger than of maximum temperature (+0.009 °C yr−1), while the mean temperature increased by +0.044 °C yr−1. Moreover, we note a substantial liquid precipitation weakening (−9.3 mm yr−1) during the monsoon season. The annual rate of decrease in precipitation at higher elevations is similar to the one at lower elevations on the southern side of the Koshi Basin, but the drier conditions of this remote environment make the fractional loss much more consistent (−47% during the monsoon period). Our results challenge the assumptions on whether temperature or precipitation is the main driver of recent glacier mass changes in the region. The main implications are the following: (1) the negative mass balances of glaciers observed in this region can be more ascribed to a decrease in accumulation (snowfall) than to an increase in surface melting; (2) the melting has only been favoured during winter and spring months and close to the glaciers terminus; (3) a decrease in the probability of snowfall (−10%) has made a significant impact only at glacier ablation zone, but the magnitude of this decrease is distinctly lower than the observed decrease in precipitation; (4) the decrease in accumulation could have caused the observed decrease in glacier flow velocity and the current stagnation of glacier termini, which in turn could have produced more melting under the debris glacier cover, leading to the formation of numerous supraglacial and proglacial lakes that have characterized the region in the last decades.
Journal Article
How much is particulate matter near the ground influenced by upper-level processes within and above the PBL? A summertime case study in Milan (Italy) evidences the distinctive role of nitrate
2015
Chemical and dynamical processes lead to the formation of aerosol layers in the upper planetary boundary layer (PBL) and above it. Through vertical mixing and entrainment into the PBL these layers may contribute to the ground-level particulate matter (PM); however, to date a quantitative assessment of such a contribution has not been carried out. This study investigates this aspect by combining chemical and physical aerosol measurements with WRF/Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry) model simulations. The observations were collected in the Milan urban area (northern Italy) during the summer of 2007. The period coincided with the passage of a meteorological perturbation that cleansed the lower atmosphere, followed by a high-pressure period favouring pollutant accumulation. Lidar observations revealed the formation of elevated aerosol layers and evidence of their entrainment into the PBL. We analysed the budget of ground-level PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm) with the help of the online meteorology–chemistry WRF/Chem model, focusing in particular on the contribution of upper-level processes. Our findings show that an important player in determining the upper-PBL aerosol layer is particulate nitrate, which may reach higher values in the upper PBL (up to 30% of the aerosol mass) than in the lower PBL. The nitrate formation process is predicted to be largely driven by the relative-humidity vertical profile, which may trigger efficient aqueous nitrate formation when exceeding the ammonium nitrate deliquescence point. Secondary PM2.5 produced in the upper half of the PBL may contribute up to 7–8 μg m−3 (or 25%) to ground-level concentrations on an hourly basis. The residual aerosol layer above the PBL is also found to potentially play a large role, which may occasionally contribute up to 10–12 μg m−3 (or 40%) to hourly ground-level PM2.5 concentrations during the morning hours. Although the results presented here refer to one relatively short period in one location, this study highlights the importance of considering the interplay between chemical and dynamical processes occurring within and above the PBL when interpreting ground-level aerosol observations.
Journal Article
Integrating multidisciplinary instruments for assessing coastal vulnerability to erosion and sea level rise: lessons and challenges from the Adriatic Sea, Italy
2019
The evolution of coastal and transitional environments depends upon the interplay of human activities and natural drivers, two factors that are strongly connected and many times conflicting. The urge for efficient tools for characterising and predicting the behaviour of such systems is nowadays particularly pressing, especially under the effects of a changing climate, and requires a deeper understanding of the connections among different drivers and different scales. To this aim, the present paper reviews the results of a set of interdisciplinary and coordinated experiences carried out in the Adriatic Sea (north-eastern Mediterranean region), discussing state-of-the art methods for coastal dynamics assessment and monitoring, and suggests strategies towards a more efficient coastal management. Coupled with detailed geomorphological information, the methodologies currently available for evaluating the different components of relative sea level rise facilitate a first identification of the flooding hazard in coastal areas, providing a fundamental element for the prioritization and identification of the sustainability of possible interventions and policies. In addition, hydro- and morpho-dynamic models are achieving significant advances in terms of spatial resolution and physical insight, also in a climatological context, improving the description of the interactions between meteooceanographic processes at the regional scale to coastal dynamics at the local scale. We point out that a coordinated use of the described tools should be promptly promoted in the design of survey and monitoring activities as well as in the exploitation of already collected data. Moreover, expected benefits from this strategy include the production of services and infrastructures for coastal protection with a focus on short-term forecast and rapid response, enabling the implementation of an event-oriented sampling strategy.
Journal Article
Intense air-sea exchange and heavy rainfall: impact of the northern Adriatic SST
2016
Over the northern Adriatic basin, intense air-sea interactions are often associated with heavy precipitation over the mountainous areas surrounding the basin. In this study, a high-resolution mesoscale model is employed to simulate three severe weather events and to evaluate the effect of the sea surface temperature on the intensity and location of heavy rainfall. The sensitivity tests show that the impact of SST varies among the events and it mainly involves the modification of the PBL characteristics and thus the flow dynamics and its interaction with the orography.
Journal Article
Transport of short-lived climate forcers pollutants (SLCF P) to the Himalayas during the South Asian summer monsoon onset
2014
Over the course of six years (2006-2011), equivalent black carbon (eqBC), coarse aerosol mass (PM1-10), and surface ozone (O3), observed during the monsoon onset period at the Nepal Climate Observatory-Pyramid WMO GAW Global Station (NCO-P, 5079 m a.s.l.), were analyzed to investigate events characterized by a significant increase in these short-lived climate forcers pollutants (SLCF P). These events occurred during periods characterized by low (or nearly absent) rain precipitation in the central Himalayas, and they appeared to be related to weakening stages (or 'breaking') of the South Asian summer monsoon system. As revealed by the combined analysis of atmospheric circulation, air-mass three-dimensional back trajectories, and satellite measurements of atmospheric aerosol loading, surface open fire, and tropospheric NO x , the large amount of SLCF P reaching the NCO-P appeared to be related to natural (mineral dust) and anthropogenic emissions occurring within the PBL of central Pakistan (i.e., Thar Desert), the Northwestern Indo-Gangetic plain, and the Himalayan foothills. The systematic occurrence of these events appeared to represent the most important source of SLCF P inputs into the central Himalayas during the summer monsoon onset period, with possible important implications for the regional climate and for hydrological cycles.
Journal Article
Bounds on the Time–history and Holocene Mass Budget of Antarctica from Sea–level Records in SE Tunisia
2009
Solving the sea–level equation for a Maxwell Earth, we analyze the sensitivity of Holocene sea–level records in SE Tunisia to the time–history of remote ice sheets. Assuming that mantle viscosity increases moderately with depth, we find that in this region the sea–level variations driven by the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets cancel, so that the late–Holocene sea–level high–stand suggested by the geological record merely reflects the melting history of Antarctica. New insight into the history of this ice sheet is obtained analyzing the information contained in a revised set of relative sea–level observations for sites across the Mediterranean covering the last 8 kyrs. From a trial–and–error misfit analysis, it holds true that in this region the match between model predictions and observations improves when the volume of water released from Antarctica is well below the value imposed by the ICE3G chronology and when a sudden meltwater pulse is allowed between 8 and 7 kyrs before present, corresponding to the epoch of the catastrophic rise event known as CRE3.
Journal Article
Glacio–isostatic Adjustment in the Po Plain and in the Northern Adriatic Region
2009
Vertical movements in the Po plain (northern Italy) are controlled by natural and anthropogenic effects. Since Italy is located in the far–field of the former late Pleistocene ice sheets, isostatic deformations are primarily driven by melt water loading and represent a major component of long–term natural movements across the entire Mediterranean. In addition to far–field sources, here we consider the isostatic effects of melting of the nearby Würm Alpine ice–sheet, suggesting that it is possible to put bounds on its maximum thickness, extent and chronology by Holocene relative sea level observations from the northern Adriatic. Using various plausible ice models, and adopting a viscosity profile that matches Holocene relative sea level observations in the Mediterranean, we find that melting of the Alpine ice sheet is always responsible for upward movements in the Po plain, currently at rates of ~ 0.5 mm/yr. When both far– and near–field sources are considered, the rate of sea level change in the Venetian Lagoon for the most reasonable mantle rheology and melting chronology is negative, i.e., opposite to that attributed to human activity and recent climatic variations. However, its amplitude (fractions of mm/yr) is small compared to the secular signal observed by tide gauges (~2 mm/yr), which makes glacial isostasy a second–order mechanism of sea level variation in this region.
Journal Article
Analysis of Summer Ozone Observations at a High Mountain Site in Central Italy (Campo Imperatore, 2388 m a.s.l.)
by
Bonasoni, Paolo
,
Dari Salisburgo, C.
,
Marinoni, A.
in
Air masses
,
Air pollution
,
Atmospheric circulation
2013
Tropospheric ozone (O
3
) is an important atmospheric pollutant and climate forcer. The Mediterranean basin is a hot-spot region in terms of short-term O
3
distribution, with frequent episodes of high tropospheric O
3
, especially during summer. To improve the characterisation of summer O
3
variability in the Mediterranean area, during the period 6–27 August 2009 an experimental campaign was conducted at Campo Imperatore, Mt Portella (CMP), a high mountain site (2,388 m a.s.l.) located in the central Italian Apennines. As deduced from analysis of atmospheric circulation, the measurement site was significantly affected by air masses originating over the Mediterranean basin, which affected the measurement site for 32 % of the time. Analysis of average values and diurnal and day-to-day variability revealed that CMP O
3
observations (average value 60.0 ± 5.1 ppbv) were comparable with measurements at other European mountain stations, indicating a prevalent effect of meteorological conditions and atmospheric transport on the synoptic scale. In fact, only a small “reverse” diurnal variation typically characterises diurnal O
3
variability because of local thermal wind circulation, which sporadically favours transport of air masses rich in O
3
from the foothill regions. Statistical analysis of five-day back-trajectory ensembles indicates that synoptic-scale air-mass transport from the Mediterranean Sea usually results in decreasing O
3
concentrations at CMP, whereas the highest hourly O
3
values are mostly associated with air masses from central continental Europe, eastern Europe, and northern Italy. High O
3
concentrations are also related to downward air-mass transport from higher altitudes. Comparison of in-situ O
3
variability with tropospheric O
3
satellite-based measurements reveals similar features of the two data sets. Together with the results from back-trajectory analysis, this indicates that CMP measurements might usefully improve characterisation of broad-scale O
3
variability over the central Mediterranean basin.
Journal Article