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The evolution of past global ice sheets is highly uncertain. One example is the missing ice problem during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 26 000-19 000 years before present) – an apparent 8-28 m discrepancy between far-field sea level indicators and modelled sea level from ice sheet reconstructions. In the absence of ice sheet reconstructions, researchers often use marine δ 18 O proxy records to infer ice volume prior to the LGM. We present a global ice sheet reconstruction for the past 80 000 years, called PaleoMIST 1.0, constructed independently of far-field sea level and δ 18 O proxy records. Our reconstruction is compatible with LGM far-field sea-level records without requiring extra ice volume, thus solving the missing ice problem. However, for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (57 000-29 000 years before present) - a pre-LGM period - our reconstruction does not match proxy-based sea level reconstructions, indicating the relationship between marine δ 18 O and sea level may be more complex than assumed. The configuration of past ice sheets, and therefore sea level, is highly uncertain. Here, the authors provide a global reconstruction of ice sheets for the past 80,000 years that allows to test proxy based sea level reconstructions and helps to reconcile disagreements with sea level changes inferred from models.

This paper presents the first multi-model ensemble of 10-year, “convection-permitting” kilometer-scale regional climate model (RCM) scenario simulations downscaled from selected CMIP5 GCM projections for historical and end of century time slices. The technique is to first downscale the CMIP5 GCM projections to an intermediate 12–15 km resolution grid using RCMs, and then use these fields to downscale further to the kilometer scale. The aim of the paper is to provide an overview of the representation of the precipitation characteristics and their projected changes over the greater Alpine domain within a Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment Flagship Pilot Study and the European Climate Prediction system project, tasked with investigating convective processes at the kilometer scale. An ensemble of 12 simulations performed by different research groups around Europe is analyzed. The simulations are evaluated through comparison with high resolution observations while the complementary ensemble of 12 km resolution driving models is used as a benchmark to evaluate the added value of the convection-permitting ensemble. The results show that the kilometer-scale ensemble is able to improve the representation of fine scale details of mean daily, wet-day/hour frequency, wet-day/hour intensity and heavy precipitation on a seasonal scale, reducing uncertainty over some regions. It also improves the representation of the summer diurnal cycle, showing more realistic onset and peak of convection. The kilometer-scale ensemble refines and enhances the projected patterns of change from the coarser resolution simulations and even modifies the sign of the precipitation intensity change and heavy precipitation over some regions. The convection permitting simulations also show larger changes for all indices over the diurnal cycle, also suggesting a change in the duration of convection over some regions. A larger positive change of frequency of heavy to severe precipitation is found. The results are encouraging towards the use of convection-permitting model ensembles to produce robust assessments of the local impacts of future climate change.

About 34 million years ago, Earth's climate cooled and an ice sheet formed on Antarctica as atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) fell below ~750 parts per million (ppm). Sedimentary cycles from a drill core in the western Ross Sea provide direct evidence of orbitally controlled glacial cycles between 34 million and 31 million years ago. Initially, under atmospheric CO₂ levels of ≥600 ppm, a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), restricted to the terrestrial continent, was highly responsive to local insolation forcing. A more stable, continental-scale ice sheet calving at the coastline did not form until ~32.8 million years ago, coincident with the earliest time that atmospheric CO₂ levels fell below ~600 ppm. Our results provide insight into the potential of the AIS for threshold behavior and have implications for its sensitivity to atmospheric CO₂ concentrations above present-day levels.

The investigation of submerged speleothems for sea level studies has made significant contributions to the understanding of the global and regional sea level variations during the Middle and Late Quaternary. This has especially been the case for the Mediterranean Sea, where more than 300 submerged speleothems sampled in 32 caves have been analysed so far. Here, we present a comprehensive review of the results obtained from the study of submerged speleothems since 1978. The studied speleothems cover the last 1.4 Myr and are mainly focused on Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 1, 2, 3, 5.1, 5.3, 5.5, 7.1, 7.2, 7.3, and 7.5. The results reveal that submerged speleothems represent extraordinary archives providing accurate information on former sea level changes. New results from a stalagmite collected at Palinuro (Campania, Italy) and characterized by marine overgrowth are also reported. The measured elevations of speleothems are affected by the local response to glacial and hydro-isostatic adjustment (GIA), and thus might significantly deviate from the global eustatic signal. A comparison of the ages and altitude values of the Mediterranean speleothems and flowstone from the Bahamas with local GIA provides a new scenario for MIS 5 and 7 sea level reconstructions.

The Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC) was a marked late Neogene oceanographic event during which the Mediterranean Sea evaporated. Its causes remain unresolved, with tectonic restrictions to the Atlantic Ocean or glacio-eustatic restriction of flow during sea-level lowstands, or a mixture of the two mechanisms, being proposed. Here we present the first direct geological evidence of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) expansion at the MSC onset and use a δ 18 O record to model relative sea-level changes. Antarctic sedimentary successions indicate AIS expansion at 6 Ma coincident with major MSC desiccation; relative sea-level modelling indicates a prolonged ∼50 m lowstand at the Strait of Gibraltar, which resulted from AIS expansion and local evaporation of sea water in concert with evaporite precipitation that caused lithospheric deformation. Our results reconcile MSC events and demonstrate that desiccation and refilling were timed by the interplay between glacio-eustatic sea-level variations, glacial isostatic adjustment and mantle deformation in response to changing water and evaporite loads. About 5.6 million years ago the Mediterranean Sea evaporated leaving a 1.5 km deep basin while at the same time Antarctica’s ice sheet grew. Here the authors show that growth of Antarctic ice lowered sea-level, which cut off the Atlantic Ocean from the Mediterranean Sea and allowed it to evaporate.

As global climate warms and sea level rises, coastal areas will be subject to more frequent extreme flooding and hurricanes. Geologic evidence for extreme coastal storms during past warm periods has the potential to provide fundamental insights into their future intensity. Recent studies argue that during the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, ∼128–116 ka) tropical and extratropical North Atlantic cyclones may have been more intense than at present, and may have produced waves larger than those observed historically. Such strong swells are inferred to have created a number of geologic features that can be observed today along the coastlines of Bermuda and the Bahamas. In this paper, we investigate the most iconic among these features: massive boulders atop a cliff in North Eleuthera, Bahamas. We combine geologic field surveys, wave models, and boulder transport equations to test the hypothesis that such boulders must have been emplaced by storms of greater-than-historical intensity. By contrast, our results suggest that with the higher relative sea level (RSL) estimated for the Bahamas during MIS 5e, boulders of this size could have been transported by waves generated by storms of historical intensity. Thus, while the megaboulders of Eleuthera cannot be used as geologic proof for past “superstorms,” they do show that with rising sea levels, cliffs and coastal barriers will be subject to significantly greater erosional energy, even without changes in storm intensity.

Recent studies over different geographical regions of the world have proven that regional climate models at the convection-permitting scale (CPMs) improve the simulation of precipitation in many aspects, such as the diurnal cycle, precipitation frequency, intensity, and extremes at daily—but even more at hourly—time scales. Here, we present an evaluation of climate simulations with the newly developed RegCM4-NH model run at the convection-permitting scale (CP-RegCM4-NH) for a decade-long period, over three domains covering a large European area. The simulations use a horizontal grid spacing of ~3 km and are driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis through an intermediate driving RegCM4-NH simulation at ~12 km grid spacing with parameterized deep convection. The km-scale simulations are evaluated against a suite of hourly observation datasets with high spatial resolutions and are compared to the coarse-resolution driving simulation in order to assess improvements in precipitation from the seasonal to hourly scale. The results show that CP-RegCM4-NH produces a more realistic representation of precipitation than the coarse-resolution simulation over all domains. The most significant improvements were found for intensity, heavy precipitation, and precipitation frequency, both on daily and hourly time scales in all seasons. In general, CP-RegCM4-NH tends to correctly produce more intense precipitation and to reduce the frequency of events compared to the coarse-resolution one. On the daily scale, improvements in CP simulations are highly region dependent, with the best results over Italy, France, and Germany, and the largest biases over Switzerland, the Carpathians, and Greece, especially during the summer seasons. At the hourly scale, the improvement in CP simulations for precipitation intensity and spatial distribution is clearer than at the daily timescale. In addition, the representation of extreme events is clearly improved by CP-RegCM4-NH, particularly at the hourly time scale, although an overestimation over some subregions can be found. Although biases between the model simulations at the km-scale and observations still exist, this first application of CP-RegCM4-NH at high spatial resolution indicates a clear benefit of convection-permitting simulations and encourages further assessments of the added value of km-scale model configurations for regional climate change projections.

Campi Flegrei is one of the widest and most dangerous active volcanic complexes in the Mediterranean basin, known to be affected by continuous and sudden vertical ground movements (bradyseismic crisis) that have characterized the post-calderic volcanic activity since the Late Pleistocene and particularly during the Roman period. Despite the intense volcano-tectonic processes, the area has been densely inhabited since the Greek-Roman as testified by several submerged archaeological remains here used as high-precision relative sea-level markers. By using a complex multi-technique approach made of direct, indirect morpho-acoustic and optical surveys, and stratigraphic analysis, we present a detailed reconstruction of the coastal landscape of Campi Flegrei and its surroundings between the Roman Late Republican and Early Imperial ages. The coastal scenario aims to facilitate the comprehension of how volcano-tectonic events influenced the evolution of this singular coastal landscape, and how these interfered with human activity in terms of damages and adaptation.

Investigation of sea-level positions during the highly-dynamic Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3: 29–61 kyrs BP) proves difficult because: (i) in stable and subsiding areas, coeval coastal sediments are currently submerged at depths of few to several tens of meters below the present sea level; (ii) in uplifting areas, the preservation of geomorphic features and sedimentary records is limited due to the erosion occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) with sea level at a depth of −130 m, followed by marine transgression that determined the development of ravinement surfaces. This study discusses previous research in the Mediterranean and elsewhere, and describes new fossiliferous marine deposits overlaying the metamorphic bedrock at Cannitello (Calabria, Italy). Radiocarbon ages of marine shells (about 43 kyrs cal BP) indicate that these deposits, presently between 28 and 30 m above sea level, formed during MIS 3.1. Elevation correction of the Cannitello outcrops (considered in an intermediate-to-far-field position with respect to the ice sheet) with the local vertical tectonic rate and Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) rate allows the proposal of a revision of the eustatic depth for this highstand. Our results are consistent with recently proposed estimates based on a novel ice sheet modelling technique.