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Background Collider bias is often considered a potential explanation when the association between obesity and disease diagnosis differs from that with disease outcome, as seen in the “obesity paradox.” For prostate cancer (PCa), in particular localized PCa, an “inverse” obesity paradox has been observed, where body mass index (BMI) is negatively associated with diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] ~0.9 per 5‐kg/m2 increase), but positively associated with PCa‐specific death (HR ~ 1.2). However, collider bias in this context remains unexplored. Methods We simulated binary disease diagnosis and outcome data, including the typically unmeasured/unknown background variable (U) that could introduce collider bias. We calculated U‐unadjusted (biased) and U‐adjusted (true) marginal odds ratios (OR) from a case‐only analysis, and determined the bias percentage using ORBiased−ORTrue/ORTrue×100 $$ \\left({\\mathrm{OR}}_{\\mathrm{Biased}}-{\\mathrm{OR}}_{\\mathrm{True}}\\right)/{\\mathrm{OR}}_{\\mathrm{True}}\\times 100 $$ . Similar simulations were performed for classical confounding. Results Across a broad range of plausible parameter values for the PCa context, collider bias did not distort the OR of BMI on PCa death by more than 4%, equivalent to a ± 0.04 distortion in the OR estimate for continuous BMI. In comparison, classical confounding showed a higher potential for distorting BMI and PCa death associations than collider bias. Conclusions Collider bias alone is unlikely to explain the inverse obesity paradox in (localized) PCa, reinforcing some mechanistic evidence that the observed positive relationship between BMI and PCa death is real, and not a statistical artifact. This finding emphasizes the importance of exploring alternative mechanisms beyond collider bias to better understand the underlying factors driving this paradox.

There is substantial genetic predisposition to bladder cancer (BC). Recently, blood pressure (BP) was positively associated with BC risk in men, but the potential interaction with genetic susceptibility for BC is unknown. We investigated a weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) of 18 BC genetic variants, BP, and their interaction, in relation to incident urothelial cancer (UC, n = 385) risk in 10,576 men. We used Cox regression, the likelihood ratio test, and the relative excess risk for interaction to calculate hazard ratios (HR) of UC, multiplicative interaction and additive interaction respectively. There was evidence of a positive additive interaction between SBP and the wGRS in relation to aggressive (P = 0.02) but not non-aggressive (P = 0.60) UC. The HR of aggressive UC was for SBP ≥ 140 mmHg and the upper 50% of the wGRS combined 1.72 (95% CI 1.03–2.87) compared to the counterpart group. Additionally, the 20-year risk of aggressive UC in 60 year-old men was 0.78% in the low SBP/low wGRS group and 1.33% in the high SBP/high wGRS group. Our findings support a potential additive interaction between the wGRS and SBP on aggressive UC among men. If replicated, the findings on interaction may provide biological and public health insight to prevent aggressive UC.

Background While a dose-response relationship between physical activity and risk of diabetes has been demonstrated, few studies have assessed the relative importance of different measures of physical activity on diabetes risk. The aim was to examine the association between different self-reported measures of physical activity and risk of type 2 diabetes in a prospective cohort study. Methods Out of 26,615 adults (45–74 years, 60% women) in the population-based Swedish Malmö Diet and Cancer Study cohort, 3791 type 2 diabetes cases were identified from registers during 17 years of follow-up. Leisure-time (17 activities), occupational and domestic physical activity were assessed through a questionnaire, and these and total physical activity were investigated in relation to type 2 diabetes risk. Results All physical activity measures showed weak to modest associations with type 2 diabetes risk. The strongest association was found in the lower end of leisure-time physical activity in dose-response analysis at levels approximately below 22 MET-hrs/week (300 min/week) representing around 40% of the population. Compared with the lowest quintile, the moderate leisure-time physical activity category had a 28% (95% CI: 0.71, 0.87) decreased risk of type 2 diabetes. Total physical activity showed a similar, but weaker, association with diabetes risk as to that of leisure-time physical activity. Domestic physical activity was positively and linearly related to diabetes risk, HR = 1.11 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.25) comparing highest to lowest quintile. There was no association between occupational physical activity and diabetes risk. Conclusion A curvilinear association was observed between leisure-time physical activity and risk of diabetes. Beyond a threshold level of approximately 22 MET-hrs/week or 300 min/week, no additional risk reduction was observed with increase in physical activity.

Prospective studies have indicated that elevated blood glucose levels may be linked with increased cancer risk, but the strength of the association is unclear. We examined the association between blood glucose and cancer risk in a prospective study of six European cohorts. The Metabolic syndrome and Cancer project (Me-Can) includes cohorts from Norway, Austria, and Sweden; the current study included 274,126 men and 275,818 women. Mean age at baseline was 44.8 years and mean follow-up time was 10.4 years. Excluding the first year of follow-up, 18,621 men and 11,664 women were diagnosed with cancer, and 6,973 men and 3,088 women died of cancer. We used Cox regression models to calculate relative risk (RR) for glucose levels, and included adjustment for body mass index (BMI) and smoking status in the analyses. RRs were corrected for regression dilution ratio of glucose. RR (95% confidence interval) per 1 mmol/l increment of glucose for overall incident cancer was 1.05 (1.01-1.10) in men and 1.11 (1.05-1.16) in women, and corresponding RRs for fatal cancer were 1.15 (1.07-1.22) and 1.21 (1.11-1.33), respectively. Significant increases in risk among men were found for incident and fatal cancer of the liver, gallbladder, and respiratory tract, for incident thyroid cancer and multiple myeloma, and for fatal rectal cancer. In women, significant associations were found for incident and fatal cancer of the pancreas, for incident urinary bladder cancer, and for fatal cancer of the uterine corpus, cervix uteri, and stomach. Data from our study indicate that abnormal glucose metabolism, independent of BMI, is associated with an increased risk of cancer overall and at several cancer sites. Our data showed stronger associations among women than among men, and for fatal cancer compared to incident cancer. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

To investigate the association between total serum cholesterol (TSC) and cancer incidence in the Metabolic syndrome and Cancer project (Me-Can). Me-Can consists of seven cohorts from Norway, Austria, and Sweden including 289,273 male and 288,057 female participants prospectively followed up for cancer incidence (n = 38,978) with a mean follow-up of 11.7 years. Cox regression models with age as the underlying time metric were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) for quintiles of cholesterol levels and per 1 mmol/l, adjusting for age at first measurement, body mass index (BMI), and smoking status. Estimates were corrected for regression dilution bias. Furthermore, we performed lag time analyses, excluding different times of follow-up, in order to check for reverse causation. In men, compared with the 1st quintile, TSC concentrations in the 5th quintile were borderline significantly associated with decreasing risk of total cancer (HR = 0.94; 95%CI: 0.88, 1.00). Significant inverse associations were observed for cancers of the liver/intrahepatic bile duct (HR = 0.14; 95%CI: 0.07, 0.29), pancreas cancer (HR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.33, 0.81), non-melanoma of skin (HR = 0.67; 95%CI: 0.46, 0.95), and cancers of the lymph-/hematopoietic tissue (HR = 0.68, 95%CI: 0.54, 0.87). In women, hazard ratios for the 5th quintile were associated with decreasing risk of total cancer (HR = 0.86, 95%CI: 0.79, 0.93) and for cancers of the gallbladder (HR = 0.23, 95%CI: 0.08, 0.62), breast (HR = 0.70, 95%CI: 0.61, 0.81), melanoma of skin (HR = 0.61, 95%CI: 0.42, 0.88), and cancers of the lymph-/hematopoietic tissue (HR = 0.61, 95%CI: 0.44, 0.83). TSC was negatively associated with risk of cancer overall in females and risk of cancer at several sites in both males and females. In lag time analyses some associations persisted, suggesting that for these cancer sites reverse causation did not apply.

Background Serum potassium levels have been positively associated with cardiovascular mortality, but little is known about the association with cancer mortality and death due to other causes. We examined whether serum levels of potassium were associated with long-term mortality in a healthy cohort. Methods Oslo Ischemia Study invited 2341 initially healthy men aged 40–59 years with no use of medication to a comprehensive health survey in 1972. Fasting serum level of potassium (mmol/L) was ascertained at baseline for 1989 men. We have complete follow-up for death throughout 2017. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and adjusted for multiple confounders. Results After a median follow-up of 30 years (interquartile range 21.2–38.7), 1736 deaths were observed, of which 494 were cancer deaths, 688 cardiovascular deaths, and 536 deaths related to other causes. Restricted cubic spline analysis showed that potassium level was linearly and positively associated with long-term cancer mortality; HR per mmol/L 1.8, 95% CI 1.4–2.4. Compared with low levels of potassium (≤ 4.0 mmol/L), men with high levels (≥4.6 mmol/L) showed a significantly 78% higher risk of cancer death. A positive linear association was found for all-cause mortality (HR per mmol/L 1.6, 95% CI 1.4–1.8), and for cardiovascular (HR per mmol/L 1.4, 95% CI 1.1–1.7) and other cause mortality (HR per mmol/L 1.7, 95% CI 1.3–2.2). Conclusions These findings suggest that serum potassium level appears to predict long-term mortality in healthy middle-aged men, and it might imply future surveillance strategies for individuals with high serum potassium levels.

Prostate cancer (PCa) incidence has steadily increased in Sweden, more steeply in the mid-1990s caused by increased opportunistic prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. Tallness, normal weight, and non-smoking are associated with more PSA testing, which increases detection of low-risk and localised PCa. We investigated time trends of height, body mass index (BMI), and smoking with PCa risk in 171,889 men in Sweden aged 50–64 years at baseline, who were linked to nationwide cancer registers during follow-up. Cox regression determined the association of these factors assessed before 1980, 1980–1994, and 1995–2004 with PCa risk. During 15 follow-up years, 8,049 men were diagnosed with PCa. The association of height with PCa was weakly positive across all calendar periods. For obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m 2 ) vs. normal weight (BMI 18.5–24.9 kg/m 2 ) and current vs. never smoking, the associations changed from null before 1980 (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.86–1.23, and 1.11, 95% CI 0.97–1.27) to negative in 1995–2004 (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.74–0.93, and 0.86, 95% CI 0.79–0.93; p interaction between periods = 0.05 and 0.001). In men with clinical characteristics available, height was positively associated with both aggressive and non-aggressive PCa whilst obesity and smoking showed negative associations only with non-aggressive PCa. These findings likely reflect differences in PSA testing by BMI and smoking habits and contribute important knowledge for etiological studies of PCa.

The association between blood pressure (BP) and bladder cancer (BC) risk remains unclear with confounding by smoking being of particular concern. We investigated the association between BP and BC risk among men using conventional survival-analysis, and by Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis in an attempt to disconnect the association from smoking. We additionally investigated the interaction between BP and N-acetyltransferase-2 ( NAT2 ) rs1495741, an established BC genetic risk variant, in the association. Populations consisting of 188,167 men with 502 incident BC’s in the UK-biobank and 27,107 men with 928 incident BC’s in two Swedish cohorts were used for the analysis. We found a positive association between systolic BP and BC risk in Cox-regression survival analysis in the Swedish cohorts, (hazard ratio [HR] per standard deviation [SD]: 1.14 [95% confidence interval 1.05–1.22]) and MR analysis (odds ratio per SD: 2-stage least-square regression, 7.70 [1.92–30.9]; inverse-variance weighted estimate, 3.43 [1.12–10.5]), and no associations in the UK-biobank (HR systolic BP: 0.93 [0.85–1.02]; MR OR: 1.24 [0.35–4.40] and 1.37 [0.43–4.37], respectively). BP levels were positively associated with muscle-invasive BC (MIBC) (HRs: systolic BP, 1.32 [1.09–1.59]; diastolic BP, 1.27 [1.04–1.55]), but not with non-muscle invasive BC, which could be analyzed in the Swedish cohorts only. There was no interaction between BP and NAT2 in relation to BC on the additive or multiplicative scale. These results suggest that BP might be related to BC, more particularly MIBC. There was no evidence to support interaction between BP and NAT2 in relation to BC in our study.

Background Insulin resistance has been shown to be related to a higher risk of several cancers, but the association with prostate cancer (PCa) has been inconsistent. Methods We investigated prediagnostic markers of insulin resistance in men in four cohorts in Sweden, in relation to PCa risk (total, non‐aggressive and aggressive) and PCa death using multivariable‐adjusted Cox regression. The number of men, PCa cases and PCa deaths was up to 66,668, 3940 and 473 for plasma glucose and the triglyceride‐glucose (TyG) index, and up to 3898, 586 and 102 for plasma insulin, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and leptin. Results Higher HbA1c was related to a lower risk of non‐aggressive PCa but no significant associations were found for insulin resistance markers with the risk of aggressive or total PCa. In PCa cases, higher glucose and TyG index were related to a higher risk of PCa death (hazard ratio [HR] per higher standard deviation, 1.22, 95% CI 1.00–1.49 and 1.24, 95% CI 1.00–1.55), which further increased when restricting the analyses to glucose and TyG index measures taken <10 years before the PCa diagnosis (HR, 1.70, 95% CI 1.09–2.70 and 1.66, 95% CI 1.12–2.51). No associations were observed for other markers in relation to PCa death. Conclusions The results of this study showed no associations of insulin resistance markers with the risk of clinically relevant PCa, but higher glucose and TyG index were associated with poorer survival from PCa. The lack of association for other insulin resistance markers may be due to their smaller sample size.

Obesity is suggested to underlie development of other metabolic aberrations, but longitudinal relationships between metabolic factors at various ages has not been studied in detail. Data from 27,379 men and 32,275 women with in total 122,940 health examinations in the Västerbotten Intervention Project, Sweden and the Vorarlberg Health Monitoring and Prevention Programme, Austria were used to investigate body mass index (BMI), mid-blood pressure, and fasting levels of glucose, triglycerides, and total cholesterol at baseline in relation to 10-year changes of these factors and weight. We included paired examinations performed 10±2 years apart and used them for longitudinal analysis with linear regression of changes between the ages 30 and 40, 40 and 50, or 50 and 60 years. Higher levels of BMI were associated with increases in glucose and mid-blood pressure as well as triglycerides levels, and, to a lesser extent, decreases in cholesterol levels. For instance, per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI at age 40, glucose at age 50 increased by 0.24 mmol/l (95%CI: 0.22-0.26) and mid-blood pressure increased by 1.54 mm Hg (95%CI: 1.35-1.74). The strongest association observed was between BMI at age 30 and mid-blood pressure, which was 2.12 mm Hg (95% CI: 1.79-2.45) increase over ten years per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI level. This association was observed at an age when blood pressure levels on average remained stable. Other associations than those with BMI at baseline were much weaker. However, triglyceride levels were associated with future glucose changes among individuals with elevated BMI, particularly in the two older age groups. BMI was most indicative of long-term changes in metabolic factors, and the strongest impact was observed for increases in blood pressure between 30 and 40 years of age. Our study supports that lifestyle interventions preventing metabolic aberrations should focus on avoiding weight increases.