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More frequent high pressure conditions associated with atmospheric blocking episodes over Greenland in recent decades have been suggested to enhance melt through large-scale subsidence and cloud dissipation, which allows more solar radiation to reach the ice sheet surface. Here we investigate mechanisms linking high pressure circulation anomalies to Greenland cloud changes and resulting cloud radiative effects, with a focus on the previously neglected role of topography. Using reanalysis and satellite data in addition to a regional climate model, we show that anticyclonic circulation anomalies over Greenland during recent extreme blocking summers produce cloud changes dependent on orographic lift and descent. The resulting increased cloud cover over northern Greenland promotes surface longwave warming, while reduced cloud cover in southern and marginal Greenland favors surface shortwave warming. Comparison with an idealized model simulation with flattened topography reveals that orographic effects were necessary to produce area-averaged decreasing cloud cover since the mid-1990s and the extreme melt observed in the summer of 2012. This demonstrates a key role for Greenland topography in mediating the cloud and melt response to large-scale circulation variability. These results suggest that future melt will depend on the pattern of circulation anomalies as well as the shape of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

The Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of the global average. This warming is influenced by clouds, which modulate the solar and terrestrial radiative fluxes and, thus, determine the surface energy budget. However, the interactions among clouds, aerosols, and radiative fluxes in the Arctic are still poorly understood. To address these uncertainties, the Ny-Ålesund Aerosol Cloud Experiment (NASCENT) study was conducted from September 2019 to August 2020 in Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. The campaign’s primary goal was to elucidate the life cycle of aerosols in the Arctic and to determine how they modulate cloud properties throughout the year. In situ and remote sensing observations were taken on the ground at sea level, at a mountaintop station, and with a tethered balloon system. An overview of the meteorological and the main aerosol seasonality encountered during the NASCENT year is introduced, followed by a presentation of first scientific highlights. In particular, we present new findings on aerosol physicochemical and molecular properties. Further, the role of cloud droplet activation and ice crystal nucleation in the formation and persistence of mixed-phase clouds, and the occurrence of secondary ice processes, are discussed and compared to the representation of cloud processes within the regional Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The paper concludes with research questions that are to be addressed in upcoming NASCENT publications.

We present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named GeoMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP project simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topics, including key uncertainties in extreme events, the use of geoengineering as part of a portfolio of responses to climate change, and the relatively new idea of cirrus cloud thinning to allow more longwave radiation to escape to space. We discuss experiment designs, as well as the rationale for those designs, showing preliminary results from individual models when available. We also introduce a new feature, called the GeoMIP Testbed, which provides a platform for simulations that will be performed with a few models and subsequently assessed to determine whether the proposed experiment designs will be adopted as core (Tier 1) GeoMIP experiments. This is meant to encourage various stakeholders to propose new targeted experiments that address their key open science questions, with the goal of making GeoMIP more relevant to a broader set of communities.

Earth’s climate sensitivity has been debated. An econometric analysis of observations shows that aerosol cooling has masked about one-third of greenhouse gas warming and yields a transient climate sensitivity of 2 ± 0.8 °C. Earth’s climate sensitivity has long been subject to heated debate and has spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of its most likely range 1 . Recent observational studies have produced estimates of transient climate sensitivity, that is, the global mean surface temperature increase at the time of CO 2 doubling, as low as 1.3 K (refs  2 , 3 ), well below the best estimate produced by global climate models (1.8 K). Here, we present an observation-based study of the time period 1964 to 2010, which does not rely on climate models. The method incorporates observations of greenhouse gas concentrations, temperature and radiation from approximately 1,300 surface sites into an energy balance framework. Statistical methods commonly applied to economic time series are then used to decompose observed temperature trends into components attributable to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations and surface radiation. We find that surface radiation trends, which have been largely explained by changes in atmospheric aerosol loading, caused a cooling that masked approximately one-third of the continental warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations over the past half-century. In consequence, the method yields a higher transient climate sensitivity (2.0 ± 0.8 K) than other observational studies.

Some bacteria are among the most active ice nuclei found in nature due to the ice nucleation active proteins on their surface, which serve as active sites for ice nucleation. Their potential impact on clouds and precipitation is not well known and needs to be investigated. Bacteria as a new aerosol species were introduced into the global climate model (GCM) ECHAM5-HAM. The inclusion of bacteria acting as ice nuclei in a GCM leads to only minor changes in cloud formation and precipitation on a global level, however, changes in the liquid water path and ice water path are simulated, specifically in the boreal regions where tundra and forests act as sources of bacteria. Although bacteria contribute to heterogeneous freezing, their impact is reduced by their low numbers compared to other heterogeneous IN. This result confirms the outcome of several previous studies.

Climate engineering, the intentional alteration of Earth's climate, is a multifaceted and controversial topic. Numerous climate engineering mechanisms (CEMs) have been proposed, and the efficacies and potential undesired consequences of some of them have been studied in the safe environments of numerical models. Here, we present a global modelling study of a so far understudied CEM, namely the seeding of cirrus clouds to reduce their lifetimes in the upper troposphere, and hence their greenhouse effect. Different from most CEMs, the intention of cirrus seeding is not to reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth's surface. This particular CEM rather targets the greenhouse effect, by reducing the trapping of infrared radiation by high clouds. This avoids some of the caveats that have been identified for solar radiation management, for example, the delayed recovery of stratospheric ozone or drastic changes to Earth's hydrological cycle. We find that seeding of mid- and high-latitude cirrus clouds has the potential to cool the planet by about 1.4K, and that this cooling is accompanied by only a modest reduction in rainfall. Intriguingly, seeding of the 15 of the globe with the highest solar noon zenith angles at any given time yields the same global mean cooling as a seeding strategy that involves 45 of the globe. In either case, the cooling is strongest at high latitudes, and could therefore serve to prevent Arctic sea ice loss. With the caveat that there are still significant uncertainties associated with ice nucleation in cirrus clouds and its representation in climate models, cirrus seeding appears to represent a powerful CEM with reduced side effects.

Estimates for equilibrium climate sensitivity from current climate models continue to exhibit a large spread, from 2.1 to 4.7 K per carbon dioxide doubling. Recent studies have found that the treatment of precipitation efficiency in deep convective clouds—specifically the conversion rate from cloud condensate to rain Cp —may contribute to the large intermodel spread. It is common for convective parameterization in climate models to carry a constant Cp , although its values are model and resolution dependent. In this study, we investigate how introducing a potential iris feedback, the cloud–climate feedback introduced by parameterizing Cp to increase with surface temperature, affects future climate simulations within a slab ocean configuration of the Community Earth System Model. Progressively stronger dependencies of Cp on temperature unexpectedly increase the equilibrium climate sensitivity monotonically from 3.8 to up to 4.6 K. This positive iris feedback puzzle, in which a reduction in cirrus clouds increases surface temperature, is attributed to changes in the opacity of convectively detrained cirrus. Cirrus clouds reduced largely in ice content and marginally in horizontal coverage, and thus the positive shortwave cloud radiative feedback dominates. The sign of the iris feedback is robust across different cloud macrophysics schemes, which control horizontal cloud cover associated with detrained ice. These results suggest a potentially strong but highly uncertain connection among convective precipitation, detrained anvil cirrus, and the high cloud feedback in a climate forced by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

We present a global modeling study of mixed‐phase clouds and have performed sensitivity simulations to explore the ways in which aerosol particles can affect this type of cloud. This study extends previous similar studies in that it takes into account not only the so‐called aerosol lifetime effects on mixed‐phase clouds but also aerosol effects on their albedo. Our findings generally agree with previous studies in that an increase in ice‐nucleating aerosol particles (IN) leads to a decreased cloud lifetime and therefore a warming of the Earth‐atmosphere system. However, an increase in IN will also generally decrease ice crystal sizes, thereby increasing the cloud albedo, which is analogous to the well‐established Twomey effect on liquid clouds. This decrease in ice crystal effective radii leads to an increase in cloud albedo and hence to a cooling that counteracts the lifetime effect of mixed‐phase clouds. Taking both the albedo and lifetime effects of mixed‐phase clouds into account, we find the net radiative forcing effect of an IN increase to be positive but small, which is in contrast to a much stronger warming that is found if the albedo effect is not taken into account. The latter has been the common approach in global studies of aerosol effects on mixed‐phase clouds so far. Results were found to be extremely sensitive to the choice of heterogeneous freezing parameterization and the maximum fraction of black carbon particles available for ice nucleation.

The coupled global atmospheric‐ocean models used for transient simulations in the IPCC AR4 report differences in the present‐day shortwave forcing of more than 2 W/m2. We show here that about 1.3 W/m2 of this spread could be explained by the different methods used to calculate cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) from aerosol mass concentrations. Although we cannot rule out that other forcing agents could yield comparable uncertainties, this strongly points to the aerosol indirect effect as the main contributor to the wide spread in the shortwave forcing reported in IPCC AR4.