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The London Summit on Family Planning in 2012 inspired the Family Planning 2020 (FP2020) initiative and the 120×20 goal of having an additional 120 million women and adolescent girls become users of modern contraceptives in 69 of the world's poorest countries by the year 2020. Working towards achieving 120 × 20 is crucial for ultimately achieving the Sustainable Development Goals of universal access and satisfying demand for reproductive health. Thus, a performance assessment is required to determine countries' progress. An updated version of the Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) was used to construct estimates and projections of the modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR), unmet need for, and demand satisfied with modern methods of contraception among women of reproductive age who are married or in a union in the focus countries of the FP2020 initiative. We assessed current levels of family planning indicators and changes between 2012 and 2017. A counterfactual analysis was used to assess if recent levels of mCPR exceeded pre-FP2020 expectations. In 2017, the mCPR among women of reproductive age who are married or in a union in the FP2020 focus countries was 45·7% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 42·4–49·1), unmet need for modern methods was 21·6% (19·7–23·9), and the demand satisfied with modern methods was 67·9% (64·4–71·1). Between 2012 and 2017 the number of women of reproductive age who are married or in a union who use modern methods increased by 28·8 million (95% UI 5·8–52·5). At the regional level, Asia has seen the mCPR among women of reproductive age who are married or in a union grow from 51·0% (95% UI 48·5–53·4) to 51·8% (47·3–56·5) between 2012 and 2017, which is slow growth, particularly when compared with a change from 23·9% (22·9–25·0) to 28·5% (26·8–30·2) across Africa. At the country level, based on a counterfactual analysis, we found that 61% of the countries that have made a commitment to FP2020 exceeded pre-FP2020 expectations for modern contraceptive use. Country success stories include rapid increases in Kenya, Mozambique, Malawi, Lesotho, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Chad relative to what was expected in 2012. Whereas the estimate of additional users up to 2017 for women of reproductive age who are married or in a union would suggest that the 120 × 20 goal for all women is overly ambitious, the aggregate outcomes mask the diversity in progress at the country level. We identified countries with accelerated progress, that provide inspiration and guidance on how to increase the use of family planning and inform future efforts, especially in countries where progress has been poor. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, through grant support to the University of Massachusetts Amherst and Avenir Health.

Background The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) estimates the effects of maternal and child health interventions on mortality rates and the number of deaths. The family planning module in Spectrum interacts with LiST by providing estimates of the effects of scaling up family planning use on the number of live births, miscarriages, abortions, and stillbirths. Methods We use the proximate determinants of fertility framework to estimate the effects of changes in contraceptive use, proportion married, postpartum insusceptibility, abortion and sterility on the total fertility rate. We extend this framework to estimate the number of intended and unintended pregnancies and the resulting live births, abortions, stillbirths, and miscarriages. Results We apply the model to four countries (Mali, Kenya, Indonesia, and Ukraine) to demonstrate possible trends with a range of family planning and fertility levels. In high-fertility countries, such as Mali, increases in contraceptive use will partially compensate for the increasing number of women of reproductive age to reduce the annual increases in pregnancies and births. Most unintended pregnancies occur to women defined as having unmet need for contraception. In low-fertility countries, increases in contraceptive use may reduce abortion rates and low levels of unmet need mean that most unintended pregnancies are due to method failure. Conclusions The family planning module in Spectrum provides a useful framework to incorporate changes in contraceptive practices and pregnancy outcomes in the LiST calculations of mortality rates and deaths.

Background. To understand regional burdens and inform delivery of health services, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on incidence of key opportunistic infections (OIs) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected adults in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods. Eligible studies describing the cumulative incidence of OIs and proportion on ART from 1990 to November 2013 were identified using multiple databases. Summary incident risks for the ART-naive period, and during and after the first year of ART, were calculated using random-effects meta-analyses. Summary estimates from ART subgroups were compared using meta-regression. The number of OI cases and associated costs averted if ART was initiated at a CD4 count ≥200 cells/μL were estimated using Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) country estimates and global average OI treatment cost per case. Results. We identified 7965 citations, and included 126 studies describing 491 608 HIV-infected persons. In ART-naive patients, summary risk was highest (>5%) for oral candidiasis, tuberculosis, herpes zoster, and bacterial pneumonia. The reduction in incidence was greatest for all OIs during the first 12 months of ART (range, 57%–91%) except for tuberculosis, and was largest for oral candidiasis, Pneumocystis pneumonia, and toxoplasmosis. Earlier ART was estimated to have averted 857 828 cases in 2013 (95% confidence interval [CI], 828 032–874 853), with cost savings of $46.7 million (95% CI, $43.8–$49.4 million). Conclusions. There was a major reduction in risk for most OIs with ART use in LMICs, with the greatest effect seen in the first year of treatment. ART has resulted in substantial cost savings from OIs averted.

Enteral nutrition (EN) often fails to achieve nutritional goals in neurocritical care patients. We sought to investigate the safety and utility of supplemental parenteral nutrition (PN) in subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) patients. Data of 70 consecutive patients with non-traumatic SAH admitted to the neurological intensive care unit of a tertiary referral center were prospectively collected and retrospectively analyzed. We targeted the provision of 20-25 kilocalories per kilogram bodyweight per day (kcal/kg/d) by enteral nutrition. Supplemental PN was given when this target could not be reached. Nutritional data were analyzed for up to 14 days of ICU stay. Hospital complications were tested for associations with impaired enteral feeding. The amounts of EN and PN were tested for associations with the level of protein delivery and functional outcome. Repeated measurements within subjects were handled utilizing generalized estimating equations. Forty (27 women and 13 men) of 70 screened patients were eligible for the analysis. Median age was 61 (IQR 49-71) years, 8 patients (20%) died in the hospital. Thirty-six patients (90%) received PN for a median duration of 8 (IQR 4-12) days. The provision of 20 kcal/kg by EN on at least 1 day of ICU stay was only achieved in 24 patients (60%). Hydrocephalus (p = 0.020), pneumonia (p = 0.037) and sepsis (p = 0.013) were associated with impaired enteral feeding. Neither the amount nor the duration of PN administration was associated with an increased risk of severe complications or poor outcome. Supplemental PN was associated with significantly increased protein delivery (p<0.001). In patients with sepsis or pneumonia, there was an association between higher protein delivery and good functional outcome (p<0.001 and p = 0.031), but not in the overall cohort (p = 0.08). Enteral feeding was insufficient to achieve nutritional goals in subarachnoid hemorrhage patients. Supplemental PN was safe and associated with increased protein delivery. A higher protein supply was associated with good functional outcome in patients who developed sepsis or pneumonia.

Background: Condom promotion and supply was one the earliest interventions to be mobilized to address the HIV pandemic. Condoms are inexpensive and provide protection against transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases (STIs) as well as against unintended pregnancy. As many as 16 billion condoms may be used annually in all low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). In recent years the focus of HIV programs as been on testing and treatment and new technologies such as PrEP. Rates of condom use have stopped increasing short of UNAIDS targets and funding from donors is declining. Methods: We applied a mathematical HIV transmission model to 77 high HIV burden countries to estimate the number of HIV infections that would have occurred from 1990 to 2019 if condom use had remained at 1990 levels. Results: The results suggest that current levels of HIV would be five times higher without condom use and that the scale-up in condoms use averted about 117 million HIV infections. Conclusions: HIV programs should ensure that affordable condoms are consistently available and that the benefits of condom use are widely understood.

Lactulose, a disaccharide of galactose and fructose, used as a laxative or ammonia-lowering drug and as a functional food ingredient, enhances growth of Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus at clinically relevant dosages. The prebiotic effect of subclinical dosages of Lactulose, however, remains to be elucidated. This study analyses changes in the microbiota and their metabolites after a 5 days Lactulose treatment using the TIM-2 system, a computer-controlled model of the proximal large intestine representing a complex, high density, metabolically active, anaerobic microbiota of human origin. Subclinical dosages of 2–5 g Lactulose were used. While 2 g Lactulose already increased the short-chain fatty acid levels of the intestinal content, 5 g Lactulose were required daily for 5 days in this study to exert the full beneficial prebiotic effect consisting of higher bacterial counts of Bifidobacterium, Lactobacillus, and Anaerostipes, a rise in acetate, butyrate and lactate, as well as a decrease in branched-chain fatty acids, pH (suggested by an increase in NaOH usage), and ammonia.

Background The Spectrum and Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) programs are used to estimate key HIV indicators based on HIV surveillance and surveys, programme statistics and epidemic patterns. These indicators include the number of people living with HIV, new infections, AIDS deaths, AIDS orphans, the number of adults and children needing treatment, the need for preventing mother to child transmission (PMTCT) and the impact of antiretroviral treatment on survival. Methods The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) Reference Group on Estimates, Models and Projections regularly reviews new data and information needs and recommends updates to the methodology and assumptions used in Spectrum. The latest updates described here were used in the 2011 round of global estimates. Results Spectrum and EPP have now been combined into one software package to enhance ease of use and ensure consistent data and assumptions for the curve fitting and indicator estimations. Major enhancements to the methods include a new adult model that tracks the HIV+ population by CD4 count; new patterns describing child survival by time of infection (perinatally, <6 months, 7–12 months and 12+ months after birth); a more detailed estimate of mother-to-child transmission that includes differential transmission rates by CD4 count of the mother, the effects of incident infections and new prophylaxis options; and new procedures to estimate uncertainty ranges around regional estimates. Conclusions The revised model and software facilitate the preparation of new HIV estimates and use new data to address emerging needs for better information on need for treatment among adults and children.

Thanks to considerable resources, leadership, community mobilisation, and innovation, enormous gains have been made in controlling the HIV epidemic, saving millions of people from infection and AIDS-related illness and death.

To inform the level of attention to be given by antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs to HIV drug resistance (HIVDR), we used an individual-level model to estimate its impact on future AIDS deaths, HIV incidence, and ART program costs in sub–Saharan Africa (SSA) for a range of program situations. We applied this to SSA through the Spectrum-Goals model. In a situation in which current levels of pretreatment HIVDR are over 10% (mean, 15%), 16% of AIDS deaths (890 000 deaths), 9% of new infections (450 000), and 8% ($6.5 billion) of ART program costs in SSA in 2016–2030 will be attributable to HIVDR.

In 2011 a new Investment Framework was proposed that described how the scale-up of key HIV interventions could dramatically reduce new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths in low and middle income countries by 2015. This framework included ambitious coverage goals for prevention and treatment services for 2015, resulting in a reduction of new HIV infections by more than half, in line with the goals of the declaration of the UN High Level Meeting in June 2011. However, the approach suggested a leveling in the number of new infections at about 1 million annually-far from the UNAIDS goal of ending AIDS by 2030. In response, UNAIDS has developed the Fast-Track approach that is intended to provide a roadmap to the actions required to achieve this goal. The Fast-Track approach is predicated on a rapid scale-up of focused, effective prevention and treatment services over the next 5 years and then maintaining a high level of programme implementation until 2030. Fast-Track aims to reduce new infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% from 2010 to 2030 and proposes a set of biomedical, behavioral and enabling intervention targets for 2020 and 2030 to achieve that goal, including the rapid scale-up initiative for antiretroviral treatment known as 90-90-90. Compared to a counterfactual scenario of constant coverage for all services at early-2015 levels, the Fast-Track approach would avert 18 million HIV infections and 11 million deaths from 2016 to 2030 globally. This paper describes the analysis that produced these targets and the estimated resources needed to achieve them in low- and middle-income countries. It indicates that it is possible to achieve these goals with a significant push to achieve rapid scale-up of key interventions between now and 2020. The annual resources required from all sources would rise to US$7.4Bn in low-income countries, US$8.2Bn in lower middle-income countries and US$10.5Bn in upper-middle-income-countries by 2020 before declining approximately 9% by 2030.