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"Stow, Adam"
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Influence of adaptive capacity on the outcome of climate change vulnerability assessment
Climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) has become a mainstay conservation decision support tool. CCVAs are recommended to incorporate three elements of vulnerability – exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity – yet, lack of data frequently leads to the latter being excluded. Further, weighted or unweighted scoring schemes, based on expert opinion, may be applied. Comparisons of these approaches are rare. In a CCVA for 17 Australian lizard species, we show that membership within three vulnerability categories (low, medium and high) generally remained similar regardless of the framework or scoring scheme. There was one exception however, where, under the warm/dry scenario for 2070, including adaptive capacity lead to five fewer species being classified as highly vulnerable. Two species,
Eulamprus leuraensis
and
E
.
kosciuskoi
, were consistently ranked the most vulnerable, primarily due to projected losses in climatically suitable habitat, narrow thermal tolerance and specialist habitat requirements. Our findings provide relevant information for prioritizing target species for conservation and choosing appropriate conservation actions. We conclude that for the species included in this study, the framework and scoring scheme used had little impact on the identification of the most vulnerable species. We caution, however, that this outcome may not apply to other taxa or regions.
Journal Article
Conservation prioritization can resolve the flagship species conundrum
Conservation strategies based on charismatic flagship species, such as tigers, lions, and elephants, successfully attract funding from individuals and corporate donors. However, critics of this species-focused approach argue it wastes resources and often does not benefit broader biodiversity. If true, then the best way of raising conservation funds excludes the best way of spending it. Here we show that this conundrum can be resolved, and that the flagship species approach does not impede cost-effective conservation. Through a tailored prioritization approach, we identify places containing flagship species while also maximizing global biodiversity representation (based on 19,616 terrestrial and freshwater species). We then compare these results to scenarios that only maximized biodiversity representation, and demonstrate that our flagship-based approach achieves 79−89% of our objective. This provides strong evidence that prudently selected flagships can both raise funds for conservation and help target where these resources are best spent to conserve biodiversity.
Conservation actions focused on flagship species are effective at raising funds and awareness. Here, McGowan et al. show that prioritizing areas for conservation based on the presence of flagship species results in the selection of areas with ~ 79-89% of the total species that would be selected by maximizing biodiversity representation only.
Journal Article
Genetic structure and effective population size of Sydney rock oysters in eastern Australia
Oyster reef habitats are critical to coastal biodiversity and their decline has prompted restoration efforts in Australia. Knowledge gaps exist regarding the population structure and diversity of key species in these habitats. This may be critical information for the design of effective restoration programs. Sydney rock oysters (Saccostrea glomerata) are the dominant reef-forming bivalve in eastern Australia. Wild populations of S. glomerata have declined due to overharvesting, disease outbreaks, coastal development and reduced water quality. Here, we use genetic markers identified by genome-wide sequencing to investigate the genetic structure and diversity of wild Sydney rock oysters throughout their distribution in eastern Australia. We examine evidence for past population bottlenecks and spatial genetic structure associated with the East Australian Current. Analysis of 3, 400 neutral single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) revealed a single population, and an overlap with two other Saccostrea sp. at the northernmost boundary of the distribution. We detected signals of asymmetric gene flow consistent with the direction of the East Australian Current, and spatial structure patterns of limited genetic isolation by distance and spatial autocorrelation in the northern region (which experiences stronger effects of the East Australian Current) but not in the southern region of the distribution. We found no evidence of significant recent bottlenecks, with high effective population size throughout the species’ range. This information will provide a baseline against which to assess the impact of restoration projects, and guide strategies for sourcing stock for the enhancement of wild oyster populations. Our results provide a positive outlook for the resilience and adaptive capacity of Sydney rock oysters, and highlight wild populations as valuable resources for aquaculture and restoration initiatives.
Journal Article
Combining dispersal, landscape connectivity and habitat suitability to assess climate-induced changes in the distribution of Cunningham’s skink, Egernia cunninghami
The ability of species to track their climate niche is dependent on their dispersal potential and the connectivity of the landscape matrix linking current and future suitable habitat. However, studies modeling climate-driven range shifts rarely address the movement of species across landscapes realistically, often assuming \"unlimited\" or \"no\" dispersal. Here, we incorporate dispersal rate and landscape connectivity with a species distribution model (Maxent) to assess the extent to which the Cunningham's skink (Egernia cunninghami) may be capable of tracking spatial shifts in suitable habitat as climate changes. Our model was projected onto four contrasting, but equally plausible, scenarios describing futures that are (relative to now) hot/wet, warm/dry, hot/with similar precipitation and warm/wet, at six time horizons with decadal intervals (2020-2070) and at two spatial resolutions: 1 km and 250 m. The size of suitable habitat was projected to decline 23-63% at 1 km and 26-64% at 250 m, by 2070. Combining Maxent output with the dispersal rate of the species and connectivity of the intervening landscape matrix showed that most current populations in regions projected to become unsuitable in the medium to long term, will be unable to shift the distance necessary to reach suitable habitat. In particular, numerous populations currently inhabiting the trailing edge of the species' range are highly unlikely to be able to disperse fast enough to track climate change. Unless these populations are capable of adaptation they are likely to be extirpated. We note, however, that the core of the species distribution remains suitable across the broad spectrum of climate scenarios considered. Our findings highlight challenges faced by philopatric species and the importance of adaptation for the persistence of peripheral populations under climate change.
Journal Article
Bat species assemblage predicts coronavirus prevalence
Anthropogenic disturbances and the subsequent loss of biodiversity are altering species abundances and communities. Since species vary in their pathogen competence, spatio-temporal changes in host assemblages may lead to changes in disease dynamics. We explore how longitudinal changes in bat species assemblages affect the disease dynamics of coronaviruses (CoVs) in more than 2300 cave-dwelling bats captured over two years from five caves in Ghana. This reveals uneven CoV infection patterns between closely related species, with the alpha-CoV 229E-like and SARS-related beta-CoV 2b emerging as multi-host pathogens. Prevalence and infection likelihood for both phylogenetically distinct CoVs is influenced by the abundance of competent species and naïve subadults. Broadly, bat species vary in CoV competence, and highly competent species are more common in less diverse communities, leading to increased CoV prevalence in less diverse bat assemblages. In line with the One Health framework, our work supports the notion that biodiversity conservation may be the most proactive measure to prevent the spread of pathogens with zoonotic potential.
Human encroachment into nature alters species communities and can lead to changes in disease dynamics. Here, Meyer et al. find that coronavirus prevalence increased in less diverse bat communities, which were dominated by susceptible host species.
Journal Article
Population genetics informs the management of a controversial Australian waterbird
Widespread degradation across Australia’s inland wetland network has contributed to severe declines for many waterbird species. In contrast, breeding colonies of the Australian white ibis (Threskiornis molucca) have increased in urbanised areas along the coast, but the level of dispersal and gene flow between inland and coastal areas remain unknown. This study uses single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to ascertain the variables influencing genetic connectivity among several inland and urban colonies of white ibis across south-eastern Australia between 2015 and 2018. The contemporary effective population size was estimated, and this value was used in simulations to evaluate the impact of various management scenarios on future genetic diversity. We found no significant differences in allele frequencies between localities, or robust evidence of site fidelity, therefore suggesting widespread dispersal and gene flow between inland and urban colonies. Furthermore, effective sizes were large enough to maintain genetic diversity into the future under various realistic management scenarios. However, the lack of genetic partitioning found suggests that urban management of the ibis should not be undertaken in isolation of the conservation requirements of inland colonies.
Journal Article
The Costs of Evaluating Species Densities and Composition of Snakes to Assess Development Impacts in Amazonia
Studies leading to decision-making for environmental licensing often fail to provide accurate estimates of diversity. Measures of snake diversity are regularly obtained to assess development impacts in the rainforests of the Amazon Basin, but this taxonomic group may be subject to poor detection probabilities. Recently, the Brazilian government tried to standardize sampling designs by the implementation of a system (RAPELD) to quantify biological diversity using spatially-standardized sampling units. Consistency in sampling design allows the detection probabilities to be compared among taxa, and sampling effort and associated cost to be evaluated. The cost effectiveness of detecting snakes has received no attention in Amazonia. Here we tested the effects of reducing sampling effort on estimates of species densities and assemblage composition. We identified snakes in seven plot systems, each standardised with 14 plots. The 250 m long centre line of each plot followed an altitudinal contour. Surveys were repeated four times in each plot and detection probabilities were estimated for the 41 species encountered. Reducing the number of observations, or the size of the sampling modules, caused significant loss of information on species densities and local patterns of variation in assemblage composition. We estimated the cost to find a snake as $ 120 U.S., but general linear models indicated the possibility of identifying differences in assemblage composition for half the overall survey costs. Decisions to reduce sampling effort depend on the importance of lost information to target-issues, and may not be the preferred option if there is the potential for identifying individual snake species requiring specific conservation actions. However, in most studies of human disturbance on species assemblages, it is likely to be more cost-effective to focus on other groups of organisms with higher detection probabilities.
Journal Article
Genetic Divergence among Regions Containing the Vulnerable Great Desert Skink (Liopholis kintorei) in the Australian Arid Zone
Knowledge of genetic structure and patterns of connectivity is valuable for implementation of effective conservation management. The arid zone of Australia contains a rich biodiversity, however this has come under threat due to activities such as altered fire regimes, grazing and the introduction of feral herbivores and predators. Suitable habitats for many species can be separated by vast distances, and despite an apparent lack of current geographical barriers to dispersal, habitat specialisation, which is exhibited by many desert species, may limit connectivity throughout this expansive region. We characterised the genetic structure and differentiation of the great desert skink (Liopholis kintorei), which has a patchy, but widespread distribution in the western region of the Australian arid zone. As a species of cultural importance to local Aboriginal groups and nationally listed as Vulnerable, it is a conservation priority for numerous land managers in central Australia. Analysis of mitochondrial ND4 sequence data and ten nuclear microsatellite loci across six sampling localities through the distribution of L. kintorei revealed considerable differentiation among sites, with mitochondrial FST and microsatellite F'ST ranging from 0.047-0.938 and 0.257-0.440, respectively. The extent of differentiation suggests three main regions that should be managed separately, in particular the southeastern locality of Uluru. Current genetic delineation of these regions should be maintained if future intervention such as translocation or captive breeding is to be undertaken.
Journal Article
framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change: a case study of the Australian elapid snakes
Frameworks that provide a system for assessing species according to their vulnerability to climate change can offer considerable guidance to conservation managers who need to allocate limited resources among a large number of taxa. To date, climate change vulnerability assessments have largely been based on projected changes in range size derived from the output of species distribution models (SDMs). A criticism of risk assessments based solely on these models is that information on species ecological and life history traits is lacking. Accordingly, we developed a points-based framework for assessing species vulnerability to climate change that considered species traits together with the projections of SDMs. Applying this method to the Australian elapid snakes (family Elapidae), we determined which species may be particularly susceptible in the future and assessed broad-scale biogeographic patterns in species vulnerability. By offering a more comprehensive and rigorous method for assessing vulnerability than those based solely on SDMs, this framework provides greater justification for resource allocation, and can help guide decisions regarding the most appropriate adaptation strategies.
Journal Article