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Suspected acute coronary syndrome is the commonest reason for emergency admission to hospital and is a large burden on health-care resources. Strategies to identify low-risk patients suitable for immediate discharge would have major benefits. We did a prospective cohort study of 6304 consecutively enrolled patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome presenting to four secondary and tertiary care hospitals in Scotland. We measured plasma troponin concentrations at presentation using a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay. In derivation and validation cohorts, we evaluated the negative predictive value of a range of troponin concentrations for the primary outcome of index myocardial infarction, or subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiac death at 30 days. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (number NCT01852123). 782 (16%) of 4870 patients in the derivation cohort had index myocardial infarction, with a further 32 (1%) re-presenting with myocardial infarction and 75 (2%) cardiac deaths at 30 days. In patients without myocardial infarction at presentation, troponin concentrations were less than 5 ng/L in 2311 (61%) of 3799 patients, with a negative predictive value of 99·6% (95% CI 99·3–99·8) for the primary outcome. The negative predictive value was consistent across groups stratified by age, sex, risk factors, and previous cardiovascular disease. In two independent validation cohorts, troponin concentrations were less than 5 ng/L in 594 (56%) of 1061 patients, with an overall negative predictive value of 99·4% (98·8–99·9). At 1 year, these patients had a lower risk of myocardial infarction and cardiac death than did those with a troponin concentration of 5 ng/L or more (0·6% vs 3·3%; adjusted hazard ratio 0·41, 95% CI 0·21–0·80; p<0·0001). Low plasma troponin concentrations identify two-thirds of patients at very low risk of cardiac events who could be discharged from hospital. Implementation of this approach could substantially reduce hospital admissions and have major benefits for both patients and health-care providers. British Heart Foundation and Chief Scientist Office (Scotland).

Emergency Department (ED) attendances with chest pain reduced during the COVID-19 lockdown. We performed a service evaluation project in NHS Lothian to explore how and why the COVID-19 pandemic and public health advice had affected chest pain presentations and help-seeking behaviour at an individual patient level using a qualitative interview approach. We carried out 28 semi-structured telephone interviews with a convenience sample of patients who presented with chest pain during lockdown and in patients with known coronary heart disease under the outpatient care of a cardiologist in April and May 2020. Interviews were audio recorded and voice files listened to while making detailed notes. Salient themes and issues were documented as verbatim extracts. Interviews were analysed thematically. Patient interviews revealed three main themes. 1) pandemic help-seeking behaviour; describing how participants made the decision to seek professional healthcare assessment. 2) COVID-19 exposure concerns; describing how the subthemes of perceived vulnerability, wishing to protect others and adding pressure to the health service shaped their decision making for an episode of acute chest pain. 3) hospital experience; describing the difference between the imagined and actual experience in hospital. Qualitative interviews revealed how the pandemic shaped help-seeking practices, how patients interpreted their personal vulnerability to the virus, and described patient experience of attending hospital for assessment during this time. As patient numbers presenting to hospital appeared to mirror public health messaging, dynamic monitoring of this messaging should evaluate public response to healthcare campaigns to ensure the net impact on health, pandemic and non-pandemic related, is optimised.

Background High-sensitivity cardiac troponin testing is a promising tool for cardiovascular risk prediction, but whether serial testing can dynamically predict risk is uncertain. We evaluated the trajectory of cardiac troponin I in the years prior to a cardiovascular event in the general population, and determine whether serial measurements could track risk within individuals. Methods In the Whitehall II cohort, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentrations were measured on three occasions over a 15-year period. Time trajectories of troponin were constructed in those who died from cardiovascular disease compared to those who survived or died from other causes during follow up and these were externally validated in the HUNT Study. A joint model that adjusts for cardiovascular risk factors was used to estimate risk of cardiovascular death using serial troponin measurements. Results In 7,293 individuals (mean 58 ± 7 years, 29.4% women) cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular death occurred in 281 (3.9%) and 914 (12.5%) individuals (median follow-up 21.4 years), respectively. Troponin concentrations increased in those dying from cardiovascular disease with a steeper trajectory compared to those surviving or dying from other causes in Whitehall and HUNT ( P interaction  < 0.05 for both). The joint model demonstrated an independent association between temporal evolution of troponin and risk of cardiovascular death (HR per doubling, 1.45, 95% CI,1.33–1.75). Conclusions Cardiac troponin I concentrations increased in those dying from cardiovascular disease compared to those surviving or dying from other causes over the preceding decades. Serial cardiac troponin testing in the general population has potential to track future cardiovascular risk.

ObjectiveTo monitor hospital activity for presentation, diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular diseases during the COVID-19) pandemic to inform on indirect effects.MethodsRetrospective serial cross-sectional study in nine UK hospitals using hospital activity data from 28 October 2019 (pre-COVID-19) to 10 May 2020 (pre-easing of lockdown) and for the same weeks during 2018–2019. We analysed aggregate data for selected cardiovascular diseases before and during the epidemic. We produced an online visualisation tool to enable near real-time monitoring of trends.ResultsAcross nine hospitals, total admissions and emergency department (ED) attendances decreased after lockdown (23 March 2020) by 57.9% (57.1%–58.6%) and 52.9% (52.2%–53.5%), respectively, compared with the previous year. Activity for cardiac, cerebrovascular and other vascular conditions started to decline 1–2 weeks before lockdown and fell by 31%–88% after lockdown, with the greatest reductions observed for coronary artery bypass grafts, carotid endarterectomy, aortic aneurysm repair and peripheral arterial disease procedures. Compared with before the first UK COVID-19 (31 January 2020), activity declined across diseases and specialties between the first case and lockdown (total ED attendances relative reduction (RR) 0.94, 0.93–0.95; total hospital admissions RR 0.96, 0.95–0.97) and after lockdown (attendances RR 0.63, 0.62–0.64; admissions RR 0.59, 0.57–0.60). There was limited recovery towards usual levels of some activities from mid-April 2020.ConclusionsSubstantial reductions in total and cardiovascular activities are likely to contribute to a major burden of indirect effects of the pandemic, suggesting they should be monitored and mitigated urgently.

BackgroundHigh-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays enable the early risk stratification of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome to identify those at low risk of myocardial infarction or cardiac death. We evaluated the performance of a novel high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay in early rule out pathways.MethodsIn 1920 patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, cardiac troponin was measured using the Siemens Atellica high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay (99th centile: 34 ng/L women, 53 ng/L men). We evaluated three pathways which use either low risk-stratification thresholds of cardiac troponin (High-SensitivityTroponin in the Evaluation of patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome (High-STEACS) and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) 1 hour pathway) or the 99th centile diagnostic threshold (ESC 3 hour pathway) to rule out myocardial infarction.ResultsThe primary outcome of myocardial infarction or cardiac death at 30 days occurred in 14.4% (277/1920). The High-STEACS pathway ruled out 63% of patients (1218/1920), with five missed events for a negative predictive value (NPV) of 99.5% (95% CI (CI) 99.1% to 99.8%). Similar performance was observed for the ESC 1 hour pathway with an NPV of 99.0% (97.6% to 99.8%). In contrast, the ESC 3 hour pathway ruled out 65% of patients (1248/1920), but missed 25 events for an NPV of 98.0% (97.1% to 98.7%).ConclusionsA novel high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay can safely identify patients at low risk of myocardial infarction or cardiac death. Diagnostic pathways that use low cardiac troponin concentrations for risk stratification miss fewer events than those that rely on the 99th centile to rule out myocardial infarction.Trial registrationNCT1852123.

Objective To evaluate the diagnosis of myocardial infarction using a high sensitivity troponin I assay and sex specific diagnostic thresholds in men and women with suspected acute coronary syndrome.Design Prospective cohort study.Setting Regional cardiac centre, United Kingdom.Participants Consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome (n=1126, 46% women). Two cardiologists independently adjudicated the diagnosis of myocardial infarction by using a high sensitivity troponin I assay with sex specific diagnostic thresholds (men 34 ng/L, women 16 ng/L) and compared with current practice where a contemporary assay (50 ng/L, single threshold) was used to guide care.Main outcome measure Diagnosis of myocardial infarction.Results The high sensitivity troponin I assay noticeably increased the diagnosis of myocardial infarction in women (from 11% to 22%; P<0.001) but had a minimal effect in men (from 19% to 21%, P=0.002). Women were less likely than men to be referred to a cardiologist or undergo coronary revascularisation (P<0.05 for both). At 12 months, women with undisclosed increases in troponin concentration (17-49 ng/L) and those with myocardial infarction (≥50 ng/L) had the highest rate of death or reinfarction compared with women without (≤16 ng/L) myocardial infarction (25%, 24%, and 4%, respectively; P<0.001).Conclusions Although having little effect in men, a high sensitivity troponin assay with sex specific diagnostic thresholds may double the diagnosis of myocardial infarction in women and identify those at high risk of reinfarction and death. Whether use of sex specific diagnostic thresholds will improve outcomes and tackle inequalities in the treatment of women with suspected acute coronary syndrome requires urgent attention.

AbstractObjectiveTo evaluate how selection of patients for high sensitivity cardiac troponin testing affects the diagnosis of myocardial infarction across different healthcare settings.DesignProspective study of three independent consecutive patient populations presenting to emergency departments.SettingSecondary and tertiary care hospitals in the United Kingdom and United States.ParticipantsHigh sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentrations were measured in 8500 consecutive patients presenting to emergency departments: unselected patients in the UK (n=1054) and two selected populations of patients in whom troponin testing was requested by the attending clinician in the UK (n=5815) and the US (n=1631). The final diagnosis of type 1 or type 2 myocardial infarction or myocardial injury was independently adjudicated.Main outcome measuresPositive predictive value of an elevated cardiac troponin concentration for a diagnosis of type 1 myocardial infarction.ResultsCardiac troponin concentrations were elevated in 13.7% (144/1054) of unselected patients, with a prevalence of 1.6% (17/1054) for type 1 myocardial infarction and a positive predictive value of 11.8% (95% confidence interval 7.0% to 18.2%). In selected patients, in whom troponin testing was guided by the attending clinician, the prevalence and positive predictive value were 14.5% (843/5815) and 59.7% (57.0% to 62.2%) in the UK and 4.2% (68/1631) and 16.4% (13.0% to 20.3%) in the US. Across both selected patient populations, the positive predictive value was highest in patients with chest pain, with ischaemia on the electrocardiogram, and with a history of ischaemic heart disease.ConclusionsWhen high sensitivity cardiac troponin testing is performed widely or without previous clinical assessment, elevated troponin concentrations are common and predominantly reflect myocardial injury rather than myocardial infarction. These observations highlight how selection of patients for cardiac troponin testing varies across healthcare settings and markedly influences the positive predictive value for a diagnosis of myocardial infarction.

Patient and Public Involvement and Engagement (PPIE) is essential for high-quality healthcare research, yet significant challenges persist in achieving diverse input. Traditional PPIE panels can struggle with recruitment limitations, geographical constraints, and resource intensity, resulting in panels that may not reflect population diversity or lived experiences. In order to address these challenges, we developed Panelyze, an AI-powered co-production system to augment existing PPIE approaches. Panelyze follows a five-step workflow: (1) programmatic generation of synthetic personas and panels based on census data and lived experiences; (2) semantic analysis of research proposals; (3) generation of the synthetic panel's discussions; (4) generation of PPIE co-production artefacts (e.g., Plain English Summaries, Infographics); and (5) generation of the Panelyze Score, a novel algorithmic metric evaluating healthcare proposals against UK Standards for Public Involvement. We validated the system using the CAPRIE-2 cardiovascular research proposal. Results demonstrated the system's capacity to simulate qualitative dialogue, identifying critical socio-economic barriers (e.g., wage loss from clinic visits) and validating terminology choices (e.g., drug naming conventions). Critically, the system functions as an augmentation tool, enabling research leads to stress-test and refine their proposals against a synthetic audience. This process amplifies missing voices rarely heard in physical meetings and generates accessible materials that facilitate easier adoption and higher-quality engagement for subsequent human panels.

ObjectivesPatients with suspected acute coronary syndrome and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) concentrations below the limit of detection at presentation are low risk. We aim to determine whether implementing this approach facilitates the safe early discharge of patients.MethodsIn a prospective single-centre cohort study, consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome were included before (standard care) and after (intervention) implementation of an early rule-out pathway. During standard care, myocardial infarction was ruled out if hs-cTnT concentrations were <99th centile (14 ng/L) at presentation and at 6–12 hours after symptom onset. In the intervention, patients were ruled out if hs-cTnT concentrations were <5 ng/L at presentation and symptoms present for ≥3 hours or were ≥5 ng/L and unchanged within the reference range at 3 hours. We compared duration of stay (efficacy) and all-cause death at 1 year (safety) before and after implementation.ResultsWe included 10 315 consecutive patients (64±16 years, 46% women) with 6642 (64%) and 3673 (36%) in the standard care and intervention groups, respectively. Duration of stay was reduced from 534 (IQR, 220–2279) to 390 (IQR, 218–1910) min (p<0.001) after implementation. At 1 year, all-cause death occurred in 10.9% (721 of 6642) and 10.4% (381 of 3673) of patients in the standard care group (referent) and intervention group, respectively (adjusted OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.18).ConclusionIn patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, implementing an early rule-out pathway using hs-cTnT concentrations <5 ng/L at presentation reduced the duration of stay in hospital without compromising safety.

Abstract Aims Heart failure may occur following acute myocardial infarction, but with the use of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays we increasingly diagnose patients with minor myocardial injury. Whether troponin concentrations remain a useful predictor of heart failure in patients with acute coronary syndrome is uncertain. Methods and results We identified all consecutive patients (n = 4748) with suspected acute coronary syndrome (61 ± 16 years, 57% male) presenting to three secondary and tertiary care hospitals. Cox-regression models were used to evaluate the association between high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentration and subsequent heart failure hospitalization. C-statistics were estimated to evaluate the predictive value of troponin for heart failure hospitalization. Over 2071 years of follow-up there were 83 heart failure hospitalizations. Patients with troponin concentrations above the upper reference limit (URL) were more likely to be hospitalized with heart failure than patients below the URL (118/1000 vs. 17/1000 person years, adjusted hazard ratio: 7.0). Among patients with troponin concentrations

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