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The scientific information needed to precisely link land use changes to changes in ecosystem service provision is often unavailable, particularly for hydrological ecosystem services. Potential buyers of ecosystem services must weigh the risk of paying to induce conservation that fails to deliver valuable ecosystem services against the risk that land is developed before its value is known. This paper uses a two period model to assess when expected future improvements in scientific information should substantially impact payments for conservation today. Optimal current payments increase, often substantially, as the quality of expected future information increases, but the gain from increasing payments to account for the expected degree of improved information is small in many cases. Larger values occur when the buyer believes that the land whose private development value is the highest also provides the highest ecosystem service value, when the buyer faces relatively more uncertainty about ecosystem service provision than about the cost of inducing conservation, and when the buyer believes land is highly likely to be developed absent incentive payments.

The gender structures of the communities of the Late Neolithic and Copper Age in South East Europe have been firmly placed in a binary system by past archaeological analysis. The analysis of cemetery remains has indicated that binaries are expressed through differences in body position and the types of artefacts placed in the grave. However, re-evaluation of evidence from Durankulak cemetery on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast demonstrates that such interpretations may result from the imposition of a modern Western understanding of gender as binary based on sex; these assumptions can lead to the exclusion of data which points to more complex and varied gender relationships. This paper briefly discusses the problems in starting archaeological analyses from an assumed binary in both sex and gender. It is argued that any approach that starts with this binary is likely to be misleading, and that large-scale data sets, such as cemeteries, should be investigated using multivariate statistical techniques to uncover a variety of horizontal and vertical social categories and roles, of which gender may be a part. It demonstrates that in the case of Durankulak, while there are gender differences, there was a great deal of more complexity than a simple male/female division. Some artefacts are exclusively associated with male burials, while female graves have less variety in their assemblages.

This title combines two of spymaster Barton Whaley's most potent analyses of the craft: Turnabout: Crafting the Double-Cross and When Deception Fails: The Theory of Outs. Each examination dives into extensive case studies to establish not only bedrock understandings of essential espionage principals, but also creates guidance for their practical application on both individual and governmental scales. Deception is a basic tactic used by allies and enemies alike, but when both protagonist and antagonist ply the same trade, it is the master of the double-cross who comes out the victor. Turnabout examines exactly how to turn the tables on an opponent and use their own deception against them. Through 38 case studies this monograph dissects the double-cross to reveal the psychological battle of wits at its core. No matter how well crafted, however, there is always a chance that a deception will fail. But failure is not the end of a deception, and even failed deception operations can yield results. When Deception Fails pores over 60 case studies to determine why a deception will fail, steps to prevent a failed operation, and how to turn that failure into a success. Through his analysis of the Theory of Outs, Whaley identifies the cunning required to recapture the initiative rather than allowing an error to turn an operation into a total loss.

Governments are increasingly reliant on the reacquisition of water rights as a mechanism for recovering overexploited basins. Yet, serious concerns have recently been raised about the efficacy and operational dimensions of existing programs. Water buyback is typically implemented as the purchase of a fixed quantity of water rights from the agricultural sector at the price set by the Water Authority. This paper seeks to analyze whether the use of water buyback in its current form represents a sensible means of recovering overexploited basins. The results—which are particularly relevant to contexts characterised by poor enforcement regimes and widespread illegal water use—highlight the need for greater scrutiny of current programs and call for additional work to improve the design of reacquisition policies in the context of water resource management.

AbstractObjectiveTo assess the effectiveness of pelvic floor muscle training (PFMT) plus electromyographic biofeedback or PFMT alone for stress or mixed urinary incontinence in women.DesignParallel group randomised controlled trial.Setting23 community and secondary care centres providing continence care in Scotland and England.Participants600 women aged 18 and older, newly presenting with stress or mixed urinary incontinence between February 2014 and July 2016: 300 were randomised to PFMT plus electromyographic biofeedback and 300 to PFMT alone.InterventionsParticipants in both groups were offered six appointments with a continence therapist over 16 weeks. Participants in the biofeedback PFMT group received supervised PFMT and a home PFMT programme, incorporating electromyographic biofeedback during clinic appointments and at home. The PFMT group received supervised PFMT and a home PFMT programme. PFMT programmes were progressed over the appointments.Main outcome measuresThe primary outcome was self-reported severity of urinary incontinence (International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire-urinary incontinence short form (ICIQ-UI SF), range 0 to 21, higher scores indicating greater severity) at 24 months. Secondary outcomes were cure or improvement, other pelvic floor symptoms, condition specific quality of life, women’s perception of improvement, pelvic floor muscle function, uptake of other urinary incontinence treatment, PFMT self-efficacy, adherence, intervention costs, and quality adjusted life years.ResultsMean ICIQ-UI SF scores at 24 months were 8.2 (SD 5.1, n=225) in the biofeedback PFMT group and 8.5 (SD 4.9, n=235) in the PFMT group (mean difference −0.09, 95% confidence interval −0.92 to 0.75, P=0.84). Biofeedback PFMT had similar costs (mean difference £121 ($154; €133), −£409 to £651, P=0.64) and quality adjusted life years (−0.04, −0.12 to 0.04, P=0.28) to PFMT. 48 participants reported an adverse event: for 23 this was related or possibly related to the interventions.ConclusionsAt 24 months no evidence was found of any important difference in severity of urinary incontinence between PFMT plus electromyographic biofeedback and PFMT alone groups. Routine use of electromyographic biofeedback with PFMT should not be recommended. Other ways of maximising the effects of PFMT should be investigated.Trial registrationISRCTN57756448.

In many parts of the world, there is a substantial disconnect between existing water institutions and the institutions needed to ensure sustainable water supplies for the future. Implementing large-scale institutional change is politically challenging. A common feature of water problems is that solutions must consider interactions between hydrology, economics, and political institutions. This article illustrates how combining numerical analysis with another technique, response surface analysis, produces a tractable model of policy interactions grounded in a rich description of the real-world policy problem. In this article, the authors use a response surface of a previously constructed numerical bargaining model to investigate the feasibility of water right enforcement in Spain's Upper Guadiana Basin, which has experienced rapid declines in water levels. A key conclusion of the analysis is that the success of local negotiation is critically dependent on stakeholders' beliefs about enforcement policy in the absence of an agreement.

Increasingly, central governments approach contentious natural resource allocation problems by devolving partial decision-making responsibility to local stakeholders. This paper conceptualizes devolution as a three-stage process and uses a simulation model calibrated to real-world conditions to analyze devolution in Spain’s Upper Guadiana Basin. The Spanish national government has proposed spending over a billion euros to reverse a 30 year decline in groundwater levels. We investigate how the government can most effectively allocate this money to improve water levels by utilizing its power to set the structure of a local negotiation process. Using a numerical Nash model of local bargaining, we find that if the national government creates appropriate incentives, local bargaining can produce water stabilization. The actual water levels that will emerge are highly dependent on the central government’s decisions about the budget available to local stakeholders and the default policy, which will be influenced by the relative value the government places on various financial and environmental outcomes. Our paper concludes by determining the relationship between these relative valuations and the government’s preferences over water levels.

Downscaled climate change projections for California, when translated into changes in irrigation water delivery and then into profit from agriculture in the Central Valley, show an increase in conventional measures of variability such as the variance. However, these increases are modest and mask a more pronounced increase in downside risk , defined as the probability of unfavorable outcomes of water supply or profit. This paper describes the concept of downside risk and measures it as it applies to outcomes for Central Valley agriculture projected under four climate change scenarios. We compare the effect of downside risk aversion versus conventional risk aversion or risk neutrality when assessing the impact of climate change on the profitability of Central Valley agriculture. We find that, when downside risk is considered, the assessment of losses due to climate change increases substantially.

IntroductionParkinson’s disease is the second most common chronic neurodegenerative condition with bladder dysfunction affecting up to 71%. Symptoms affect quality of life and include urgency, frequency, hesitancy, nocturia and incontinence. Addressing urinary dysfunction is one of the top 10 priority research areas identified by the James Lind Alliance and Parkinson’s UK.ObjectivesConduct a randomised controlled trial (RCT) targeting people with Parkinson’s disease (PwP) who have self-reported problematic lower urinary tract symptoms, investigating the effectiveness of transcutaneous tibial nerve stimulation (TTNS) compared with sham TTNS. Implement a standardised training approach and package for the correct application of TTNS. Conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of TTNS compared with sham TTNS.Methods and analysisAn RCT of 6 weeks with twice weekly TTNS or sham TTNS. Participants will be recruited in 12 National Health Service neurology/movement disorder services, using a web-based randomisation system, and will be shown how to apply TTNS or sham TTNS. Participants will receive a weekly telephone call from the researchers during the intervention period. The trial has two coprimary outcome measures: International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire-Urinary Incontinence Short Form and the International Prostate Symptom Score. Secondary outcomes include a 3-day bladder diary, quality of life, acceptability and fidelity and health economic evaluation. Outcomes will be measured at 0, 6 and 12 weeks.A sample size of 208 randomised in equal numbers to the two arms will provide 90% power to detect a clinically important difference of 2.52 points on the Internatioanl Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire - Short Form (ICIQ-SF) and of 3 points in the International Prostate Symptom Score total score at 12 weeks at 5% significance level, based on an SD of 4.7 in each arm and 20% attrition at 6 weeks. Analysis will be by intention to treat and pre defined in a statistical analysis planEthics and disseminationEast of Scotland Research Ethics Service (EoSRES), 18/ES00042, obtained on 10 May 2018. The trial will allow us to determine effectiveness, safety, cost and acceptability of TTNS for bladder dysfunction in PWP. Results will be published in open access journals; lay reports will be posted to all participants and presented at conferences.Trial registration number ISRCTN12437878; Pre-results.

The emergence of separate cemeteries for disposal of the dead represents a profound shift in mortuary practice in the Late Neolithic of southeast Europe, with a new emphasis on the repeated use of a specific space distinct from, though still often close to, settlements. To help to time this shift more precisely, this paper presents 25 dates from 21 burials in the large cemetery at Cernica, in the Lower Danube valley in southern Romania, which are used to formally model the start, duration of use and end of the cemetery. A further six dates were obtained from four contexts for the nearby settlement. Careful consideration is given to the possibility of environmental and dietary offsets. The preferred model, without freshwater reservoir offsets, suggests that use of the Cernica cemetery probably began in 5355–5220 cal BC (95% probability) and ended in 5190–5080 cal BC (28% probability) or 5070–4940 (67% probability). The implications of this result are discussed, including with reference to other cemeteries of similar age in the region, the nature of social relations being projected through mortuary ritual, and the incorporation of older, Mesolithic, ways of doing things into Late Neolithic mortuary practice.