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In the midst of the opioid crisis in the US, efforts to mitigate overdose risks have become paramount, leading some states to introduce mandates for coprescribing the life-saving overdose reversal drug naloxone. These mandates were designed to specifically address people receiving opioid analgesics who had an elevated risk for overdose. This included people receiving high opioid dosages, those concurrently using benzodiazepines, or those with a history of substance use disorder or overdose. Using a nationally representative, multipayer cohort of patients receiving prescription opioids, we investigated how naloxone codispensing rates changed at the state level from 2016 to 2021 among patients with an elevated risk for overdose. Then we used controlled interrupted time series analyses to assess mandates' longitudinal impact on naloxone codispensing in ten states that implemented mandates. We observed an immediate and significant increase in the naloxone codispensing rates in eight states after the implementation of mandates. Nevertheless, in five of these states, the codispensing rates exhibited a subsequent downward trend after the initial increase. State mandates show potential for improving naloxone codispensing; however, mandates alone might not be adequate for sustained change. Further research is needed to identify strategies complementing and enhancing the impact of mandates in combating the overdose crisis.

The opioid crisis is a major public health challenge in the United States, killing about 70,000 people in 2020 alone. Long delays and feedbacks between policy actions and their effects on drug-use behavior create dynamic complexity, complicating policy decision-making. In 2017, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine called for a quantitative systems model to help understand and address this complexity and guide policy decisions. Here, we present SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), a dynamic simulation model developed in response to that charge. SOURCE tracks the US population aged ≥12 y through the stages of prescription and illicit opioid (e.g., heroin, illicit fentanyl) misuse and use disorder, addiction treatment, remission, and overdose death. Using data spanning from 1999 to 2020, we highlight how risks of drug use initiation and overdose have evolved in response to essential endogenous feedback mechanisms, including: 1) social influence on drug use initiation and escalation among people who use opioids; 2) risk perception and response based on overdose mortality, influencing potential new initiates; and 3) capacity limits on treatment engagement; as well as other drivers, such as 4) supply-side changes in prescription opioid and heroin availability; and 5) the competing influences of illicit fentanyl and overdose death prevention efforts. Our estimates yield a more nuanced understanding of the historical trajectory of the crisis, providing a basis for projecting future scenarios and informing policy planning.

Background: Online communities such as Reddit can provide social support for those recovering from opioid use disorder. However, it is unclear whether and how advice-seekers differ from other users. Our research addresses this gap by identifying key characteristics of r/suboxone users that predict advice-seeking behavior. Objective: The objective of this analysis is to identify and describe advice-seekers on Reddit for buprenorphine-naloxone use using text annotation, social network analysis, and statistical modeling techniques. Methods: We collected 5258 posts and their comments from Reddit between 2014 and 2019. Among 202 posts which met our inclusion criteria, we annotated each post to determine which were advice-seeking (n = 137) or not advice-seeking (n = 65). We also annotated each posting user’s buprenorphine-naloxone use status (current versus formerly taking and, if currently taking, whether inducting or tapering versus other stages) and quantified their connectedness using social network analysis. To analyze the relationship between Reddit users’ advice-seeking and their social connectivity and medication use status, we constructed four models which varied in their inclusion of explanatory variables for social connectedness and buprenorphine use status. Results: The stepwise model containing “total degree” (p = 0.002), “using: inducting/tapering” (p < 0.001), and “using: other” (p = 0.01) outperformed all other models. Reddit users with fewer connections and who are currently using buprenorphine-naloxone are more likely to seek advice than those who are well-connected and no longer using the medication, respectively. Importantly, advice-seeking behavior is most accurately predicted using a combination of network characteristics and medication use status, rather than either factor alone. Conclusions: Our findings provide insights for the clinical care of people recovering from opioid use disorder and the nature of online medical advice-seeking overall. Clinicians should be especially attentive (e.g., through frequent follow-up) to patients who are inducting or tapering buprenorphine-naloxone or signal limited social support.

Abstract In 2020, the ongoing US opioid overdose crisis collided with the emerging COVID-19 pandemic. Opioid overdose deaths (OODs) rose an unprecedented 38%, due to a combination of COVID-19 disrupting services essential to people who use drugs, continued increases in fentanyls in the illicit drug supply, and other factors. How much did these factors contribute to increased OODs? We used a validated simulation model of the opioid overdose crisis, SOURCE, to estimate excess OODs in 2020 and the distribution of that excess attributable to various factors. Factors affecting OODs that could have been disrupted by COVID-19, and for which data were available, included opioid prescribing, naloxone distribution, and receipt of medications for opioid use disorder. We also accounted for fentanyls’ presence in the heroin supply. We estimated a total of 18,276 potential excess OODs, including 1,792 lives saved due to increases in buprenorphine receipt and naloxone distribution and decreases in opioid prescribing. Critically, growth in fentanyls drove 43% (7,879) of the excess OODs. A further 8% is attributable to first-ever declines in methadone maintenance treatment and extended-released injectable naltrexone treatment, most likely due to COVID-19-related disruptions. In all, 49% of potential excess OODs remain unexplained, at least some of which are likely due to additional COVID-19-related disruptions. While the confluence of various COVID-19-related factors could have been responsible for more than half of excess OODs, fentanyls continued to play a singular role in excess OODs, highlighting the urgency of mitigating their effects on overdoses.

BackgroundCommunities often experience relatively quiet periods disrupted by sudden surges of drug overdoses, suggesting that the risk of death can change substantially in a short period. Multiple substances are often involved in overdoses, and it is crucial to understand which are more frequently observed in spikes. This study aimed to investigate the involvement of specific substances in overdose spikes at the state and county levels in Massachusetts.MethodsWe applied a spike detection method to identify daily spikes among 9915 overdose fatalities in Massachusetts from 2020 to 2023. A day was identified as a spike if the number of overdose deaths was over two SDs of the adjusted moving average with a lag of 30 days. We used a general linear mixed model to compare the presence of cocaine, psychostimulants, fentanyl, heroin and prescription opioids in overdose deaths between spike and typical days. Finally, we analysed and compared the results for 8 of the 14 counties in Massachusetts with the highest maximum overdose deaths per day.ResultsAt the state level from 2020 to 2023, no substances showed significant differences in spike and typical days. Cocaine was more prevalent in multiple counties during spikes. Fentanyl-involved overdose deaths were common on typical days in two counties. Psychostimulants were more prevalent on spike and typical days depending on the county. Heroin and prescription opioids only showed differences in one county each.ConclusionOur analysis shows high heterogeneity of involved substances in overdose death spikes across counties in Massachusetts. This heterogeneity reinforces the need for localised response strategies. This understanding can guide more targeted local resource allocation and inform strategies to improve public health practices, ultimately aiming to reduce the impact of future overdose spikes.

Importance Buprenorphine is an effective and cost-effective medication to treat opioid use disorder (OUD), but is not readily available to many people with OUD in the US. The current cost-effectiveness literature does not consider interventions that concurrently increase buprenorphine initiation, duration, and capacity. Objective To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis and compare interventions associated with increased buprenorphine treatment initiation, duration, and capacity. Design and Setting This study modeled the effects of 5 interventions individually and in combination using SOURCE, a recent system dynamics model of prescription opioid and illicit opioid use, treatment, and remission, calibrated to US data from 1999 to 2020. The analysis was run during a 12-year time horizon from 2021 to 2032, with lifetime follow-up. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis on intervention effectiveness and costs was conducted. Analyses were performed from April 2021 through March 2023. Modeled participants included people with opioid misuse and OUD in the US. Interventions Interventions included emergency department buprenorphine initiation, contingency management, psychotherapy, telehealth, and expansion of hub-and-spoke narcotic treatment programs, individually and in combination. Main Outcomes and Measures Total national opioid overdose deaths, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and costs from the societal and health care perspective. Results Projections showed that contingency management expansion would avert 3530 opioid overdose deaths over 12 years, more than any other single-intervention strategy. Interventions that increased buprenorphine treatment duration initially were associated with an increased number of opioid overdose deaths in the absence of expanded treatment capacity. With an incremental cost- effectiveness ratio of$19 381 per QALY gained (2021 USD), the strategy that expanded contingency management, hub-and-spoke training, emergency department initiation, and telehealth was the preferred strategy for any willingness-to-pay threshold from $ 20 000 to $200 000/QALY gained, as it was associated with increased treatment duration and capacity simultaneously. Conclusion and Relevance This modeling analysis simulated the effects of implementing several intervention strategies across the buprenorphine cascade of care and found that strategies that were concurrently associated with increased buprenorphine treatment initiation, duration, and capacity were cost-effective.

The delivery of primary care to homeless individuals with mental health conditions presents unique challenges. To inform healthcare improvement, we studied predictors of favorable primary care experience among homeless persons with mental health conditions treated at sites that varied in degree of homeless-specific service tailoring. This was a multi-site, survey-based comparison of primary care experiences at three mainstream primary care clinics of the Veterans Administration (VA), one homeless-tailored VA clinic, and one tailored non-VA healthcare program. Persons who accessed primary care service two or more times from July 2008 through June 2010 (N = 366) were randomly sampled. Predictor variables included patient and organization characteristics suggested by the patient perception model developed by Sofaer and Firminger (2005), with an emphasis on mental health. The primary care experience was assessed with the Primary Care Quality-Homeless (PCQ-H) questionnaire, a validated survey instrument. Multiple regression identified predictors of positive experiences (i.e. higher PCQ-H total score). Significant predictors of a positive experience included a site offering tailored service design, perceived choice among providers, and currently domiciled status. There was an interaction effect between site and severe psychiatric symptoms. For persons with severe psychiatric symptoms, a homeless-tailored service design was significantly associated with a more favorable primary care experience. For persons without severe psychiatric symptoms, this difference was not significant. This study supports the importance of tailored healthcare delivery designed for homeless persons' needs, with such services potentially holding special relevance for persons with mental health conditions. To improve patient experience among the homeless, organizations may want to deliver services that are tailored to homelessness and offer a choice of providers.

Background: Homeless patients face unique challenges in obtaining primary care responsive to their needs and context. Patient experience questionnaires could permit assessment of patient-centered medical homes for this population, but standard instruments may not reflect homeless patients' priorities and concerns. Objectives: This report describes (a) the content and psychometric properties of a new primary care questionnaire for homeless patients; and (b) the methods utilized in its development. Methods: Starting with quality-related constructs from the Institute of Medicine, we identified relevant themes by interviewing homeless patients and experts in their care. A multidisciplinary team drafted a preliminary set of 78 items. This was administered to homeless-experienced clients (n = 563) across 3 VA facilities and 1 non-VA Health Care for the Homeless Program. Using Item Response Theory, we examined Test Information Function (TIF) curves to eliminate less informative items and devise plausibly distinct subscales. Results: The resulting 33-item instrument (Primary Care QualityHomeless) has 4 subscales: Patient-Clinician Relationship (15 items), Cooperation among Clinicians (3 items), Access/Coordination (11 items), and Homeless-specific Needs (4 items). Evidence for divergent and convergent validity is provided. TIF graphs showed adequate informational value to permit inferences about groups for 3 subscales (Relationship, Cooperation, and Access/Coordination). The 3-item Cooperation subscale had lower informational value (TIF < 5) but had good internal consistency (α = 0.75) and patients frequently reported problems in this aspect of care. Conclusions: Systematic application of qualitative and quantitative methods supported the development of a brief patient-reported questionnaire focused on the primary care of homeless patients and offers guidance for future population-specific instrument development.