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Maritime cooperation and security in the Indo-Pacific region : essays in honour of Sam Bateman
\"More than twenty Indo-Pacific scholars and emerging experts come together in this definitive volume to deliver fresh perspectives and original research on maritime cooperation and security. With subjects ranging from the Philippines to Antarctica, Coast Guards to climate change, these essays pay tribute to the late Commodore Sam Bateman (PhD) while laying the academic groundwork for the improved policies and behaviours that provide for improved good order at sea\"-- Provided by publisher.
BOOK
The Other Person’s Choices
This note analyzes a critical moment in a trade negotiation from a game‐theoretic perspective. The critical moment occurred in a U.S.‐China negotiation and required remarkable presence of mind from the leader of the U.S. side, Charlene Barshefsky. The analysis illustrates the importance of creating moves for other players when confronted with a situation that offers you no acceptable options. This tactic involves real‐time perspective taking skills to create a move that benefits both parties.
Journal Article
The efficacy of natalizumab in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis: subgroup analyses of AFFIRM and SENTINEL
The AFFIRM and SENTINEL studies showed that natalizumab was effective both as monotherapy and in combination with interferon beta (IFNβ)-1a in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS). Further analyses of AFFIRM and SENTINEL data were conducted to determine the efficacy of natalizumab in prespecified patient subgroups according to baseline characteristics: relapse history 1 year before randomization (1, 2, ≥ 3), Expanded Disability Status Scale score (≤ 3.5, > 3.5), number of T2 lesions (< 9, ≥ 9), presence of gadolinium-enhancing (Gd+) lesions (0, ≥ 1), age (< 40, ≥ 40) and gender (male, female). A post hoc analysis was conducted to determine the efficacy of natalizumab in patients with highly active disease (i. e., ≥ 2 relapses in the year before study entry and ≥ 1 Gd+ lesion at study entry). In both AFFIRM and SENTINEL studies natalizumab reduced the annualized relapse rates across all subgroups (except the small subgroups with < 9 baseline T2 lesions) over 2 years. In AFFIRM, natalizumab significantly reduced the risk of sustained disability progression in most subgroups. In SENTINEL, natalizumab significantly reduced the risk of sustained disability progression in the following subgroups: ≥ 9 T2 lesions at baseline, ≥ 1 Gd+ lesions at baseline, female patients and patients < 40 years of age. Natalizumab reduced the risk of disability progression by 64 % and relapse rate by 81 % in treatment- naive patients with highly active disease and by 58 % and 76 %, respectively, in patients with highly active disease despite IFNβ-1a treatment. These results indicate that natalizumab is effective in reducing disability progres- sion and relapses in patients with relapsing MS, particularly in patients with highly active disease.
Journal Article
Contingent Contracts and Value Creation
In negotiations in which the potential value creation depends upon external uncertainties, and the players have different beliefs about these uncertainties, it is well known that contingent contracts can enable agreement. But by allowing contingent payments, each player’s expected value capture can, in some situations, be made arbitrarily large. This fact prompts two natural questions. Does the increase in the players’ expected value capture imply an increase in expected value creation? And is there a point at which the contract can become more about making a wager and less about exploiting differences to enable agreement? We address these questions by showing that a player’s expected value capture can be separated into two components: an expected share of
ex post
value creation and an expected transfer of value from one player to another. The latter can be represented by a zero-sum wager. We show that if contracts are restricted to be
ex post
individually rational—a natural condition implicit in Arrow (
1953
) and Raiffa (The art & science of negotiation, Harvard University Press, Cambridge,
1982
)—a joint increase in the players’ expected value captures can always be attributed to a division of
ex post
value creation that better exploits the players’ beliefs rather than to an increase in an embedded zero-sum wager.
Journal Article
Additional efficacy endpoints from pivotal natalizumab trials in relapsing-remitting MS
Standard clinical endpoints in multiple sclerosis (MS) studies, such as disability progression defined by the expanded disability status scale (EDSS) and annualized relapse rate, may not fully reflect all aspects of therapeutic benefit experienced by patients. Pivotal studies showed that natalizumab is effective both as monotherapy (AFFIRM study) and in combination with interferon beta-1a (IFNβ-1a) (SENTINEL study) in patients with relapsing MS. We present AFFIRM and SENTINEL data demonstrating the efficacy of natalizumab on prespecified tertiary endpoints, including extent of confirmed change in EDSS score from baseline, time to sustained progression to EDSS milestone scores, hospitalizations, corticosteroid use, and time to confirmed progression of cognitive deficits. Natalizumab significantly reduced changes in EDSS scores (
P
< 0.001) and proportion of patients progressing to an EDSS score ≥4.0 (
P
< 0.001) and ≥6.0 (
P
= 0.002) compared with placebo. Natalizumab + IFNβ-1a significantly reduced changes in EDSS scores compared with placebo + IFNβ-1a (
P
= 0.011). Based on 0.5 standard deviation change in paced auditory serial addition test-3 score, natalizumab treatment reduced the risk of confirmed progression of cognitive deficits by 43% compared with placebo (HR 0.57 [95% CI 0.37, 0.89],
P
= 0.013); however, no significant difference between groups was seen in SENTINEL. Natalizumab, both as monotherapy and in combination with IFNβ-1a, significantly reduced the annualized rate of MS-related hospitalizations (by 64 and 61%, respectively) and the annualized rate of relapses severe enough to require steroid treatment (by 69 and 61%, respectively) compared with placebo and placebo + IFNβ-1a (
P
< 0.001). These analyses underline beneficial effects of natalizumab therapy in relapsing MS patients.
Journal Article
An Outbreak in 1965 of Severe Respiratory Illness Caused by the Legionnaires' Disease Bacterium
In January 1977 an unsolved outbreak of infection at St. Elizabeth's Hospital (Washington, D.C.) that occurred in 1965 was linked with Legionnaires' disease. The link was made by fluorescent antibody testing with the bacterium isolated from tissues of persons with Legionnaires' disease in the 1976 outbreak in Philadelphia. In July and August 1965, an epidemic of severe respiratory disease characterized by abrupt onset of high fever, weakness, malaise, and nonproductive cough, frequently accompanied by radiographic evidence of pneumonia, affected at least 81 patients at St. Elizabeth's Hospital, a general psychiatric hospital. Fourteen (17%) of the affected patients died. Intensive epidemiologic and laboratory investigations in 1965 did not determine the etiology. The etiologic organism may have become airborne from sites of soil excavation.
Journal Article
An epistemic analysis of the Harsanyi transformation
Harsanyi (1967-68) proposed a method for transforming uncertainty over the strategy sets of players into uncertainty over their payoffs. The transformation appears to rely on an assumption that the players are rational, or, indeed, that they are rational and that there is common belief of rationality. Such an assumption would be awkward from the perspective of the epistemic program, which is often interested in the implications of irrationality or a lack of common belief of rationality. This paper shows that without common belief of rationality, such implications are not necessarily maintained under a Harsanyi transformation. The paper then shows how, with the belief-system model of Aumann and Brandenburger (1995), such implications can be maintained in the absence of common belief of rationality.
Journal Article
Surprise Moves in Negotiation
In a game-theoretic model of a negotiation, a surprise move always has the potential to create uncertainty. This uncertainty can be beneficial to just the player making the move, or it can be beneficial to all the players involved. Moreover, there are situations in which a surprise move can change the very nature of the interactions. In particular, if the interactions follow specified procedures, the surprise move can reduce the effect of the procedures on the outcome. By showing that these results hold in the precisely defined world of game theory, it is argued that they are applicable in the more ambiguous world of real negotiations. At a broader level, the game-theoretic results imply that there is a sense in which the context can never be known for sure. The results also imply that the uncertainty created by surprise moves can be strategically useful.
Journal Article