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Most of the scientific literature on the Eastern Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) mentions a very large earthquake occurring in 1513 or 1514, presumably in the Pazarcik segment. This earthquake could play an important role in the assessment of the EAFZ seismogenic potential, provided its parameters were reliable. However, these parameters have a flimsy historical basis: just a few words of a letter sent from Damascus to Venice in March 1514, reporting severe damage in three towns in south-eastern Anatolia, one of which is hundreds kilometres away from the other two. Despite extensive research into contemporary and later historical sources and the history of monumental buildings of the three towns, we have found no evidence of damage/restoration to monuments predating 1513/1514 in the affected sites. Nor are there mentions of earthquake effects elsewhere in Anatolia and surrounding countries. Contemporary reports—mostly concerned with the 1514/1517 wars between the Ottoman, Safavid and Mamluk empires—make no mention of this earthquake or of any hindrances which its aftermath might have caused to troops marching through the allegedly devastated region (e.g. with regard to procuring supplies and shelter, or to travel difficulties due to damage to road infrastructures, landslides and the like). At the current state of knowledge, we suggest that the only available earthquake description may be either unwittingly overestimated, or possibly a conflation of two smaller earthquakes, with different epicentral locations. Highlights • It is generally agreed that in 1513/1514 the Eastern Anatolian Fault triggered a very strong earthquake. • We show that the historical background for this earthquake is very poor. We tried to find more data but found none. • We conclude that the earthquake was either not that strong or that its description may have unwittingly combined the effects of two smaller earthquakes.

The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) project was carried out between 2010 and 2014 to provide a harmonized seismic hazard assessment without country border limitations. The result covers eleven countries: Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Syria and Turkey, which span one of the seismically most active regions on Earth in response to complex interactions between four major tectonic plates i.e. Africa, Arabia, India and Eurasia. Destructive earthquakes with great loss of life and property are frequent within this region, as exemplified by the recent events of Izmit (Turkey, 1999), Bam (Iran, 2003), Kashmir (Pakistan, 2005), Van (Turkey, 2011), and Hindu Kush (Afghanistan, 2015). We summarize multidisciplinary data (seismicity, geology, and tectonics) compiled and used to characterize the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes over the investigated region. We describe the development process of the model including the delineation of seismogenic sources and the description of methods and parameters of earthquake recurrence models, all representing the current state of knowledge and practice in seismic hazard assessment. The resulting seismogenic source model includes seismic sources defined by geological evidence and active tectonic findings correlated with measured seismicity patterns. A total of 234 area sources fully cross-border-harmonized are combined with 778 seismically active faults along with background-smoothed seismicity. Recorded seismicity (both historical and instrumental) provides the input to estimate rates of earthquakes for area sources and background seismicity while geologic slip-rates are used to characterize fault-specific earthquake recurrences. Ultimately, alternative models of intrinsic uncertainties of data, procedures and models are considered when used for calculation of the seismic hazard. At variance to previous models of the EMME region, we provide a homogeneous seismic source model representing a consistent basis for the next generation of seismic hazard models within the region.