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"Subramanian, Arvind"
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Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?
We examine the effects of aid on growth in cross-sectional and panel data--after correcting for the possible bias that poorer (or stronger) growth may draw aid contributions to recipient countries. Even after this correction, we find little robust evidence of a positive (or negative) relationship between aid inflows into a country and its economic growth. We also find no evidence that aid works better in better policy or geographical environments, or that certain forms of aid work better than others. Our findings suggest that for aid to be effective in the future, the aid apparatus will have to be rethought.
Journal Article
Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development
We estimate the respective contributions of institutions, geography, and trade in determining income levels around the world, using recently developed instrumental variables for institutions and trade. Our results indicate that the quality of institutions \"trumps\" everything else. Once institutions are controlled for, conventional measures of geography have at best weak direct effects on incomes, although they have a strong indirect effect by influencing the quality of institutions. Similarly, once institutions are controlled for, trade is almost always insignificant, and often enters the income equation with the \"wrong\" (i.e., negative) sign. We relate our results to recent literature, and where differences exist, trace their origins to choices on samples, specification, and instrumentation.
Journal Article
الصين ونظام التجارة العالمي
لقد ظلت \"منظمة التجارة العالمية\" حتى وقت قريب إطار عمل فعالاً للتعاون؛ لأنها تكيّفت باستمرار مع الواقع الاقتصادي المتغير. وتعد \"أجندة الدوحة\" (للتنمية) الحالية انحرافاً عن المسار؛ لأنها لا تعكس أحد أهم التحولات في النظام التجاري والاقتصادي الدولي، وهو صعود الصين. وبرغم أن الصين ستكون مهتمة بمواصـلة الانفتاح التجـاري، فإن من شأن وجود مبـادرة تستفيـد من \"أجندة الدوحة\" -ولكن تعيد تعريفها- أن ترسخ أقدام الصين بشكل كامل في النظام التجاري المتعدد الأطراف. وينبغي أن تشتمل مثل هذه المبادرة على ركنين : الأول، أجندة تفاوض جديدة تشمل القضايا الرئيسية ذات الأهمية للصين وشـركائها التجاريين، ومن ثم تطلق العنان لآلية التحرر المتبادلة القوية التي دفعت منظمة التجارة العالمية إلى النجاحات في السابق. والثاني، فرض قيود جديدة على الاتفاقات الثنائية والإقليمية، بغية الحفاظ على الحوافز الداعمة لاستمرارية النظام التجاري الحالي، الذي يعتبر غير تمييزي إلى حد كبير.
BOOK
Dynamism with Incommensurate Development
India's sequencing of economic and political development has been unusual. In contrast to the West and more recently East Asia, democratization has preceded economic growth. Notwithstanding its unique path, India has grown substantially over the last four decades, pulling hundreds of millions out of poverty. The pace, durability, and stability of economic growth has been matched by few countries in the post-war period. This dynamism, though, has not been matched by development in several dimensions: a structural transformation that has skipped high-productivity manufacturing despite surplus labor, an increased spatial divergence in income despite integration in internal markets, limited convergence in education and other social metrics across castes but divergence across religions, a deep societal preference for sons that is associated with poor outcomes for women and high levels of stunting amongst children, and an environmental degradation that is severe for its level of income. The paper speculates on two immediate challenges: reviving dynamism when human capital development remains weak and the financial system is impaired and accelerating development when state capacity remains limited.
Journal Article
Economics after neoliberalism
Economics is in a state of \"creative ferment,\" according to lead authors Suresh Naidu, Dani Rodrik, and Gabriel Zucman. A decade after the Great Recession, they argue for a new brand of economics, one divorced from market fundamentalism and focused instead on a more inclusive society. Responses to their ideas--which come from economists, philosophers, political scientists, and policymakers across the political spectrum--showcase just how passionate the debate over the future of economics has become. -- Publishers website
Book
India’s inward (re)turn: is it warranted? Will it work?
India is turning inward. Domestic demand is assuming primacy over export orientation and trade restrictions are increasing, reversing a 3-decade trend. This shift is based on three misconceptions, which we dispel: that India’s domestic market size is big, India’s growth has been based on domestic not export markets, and export prospects are dim because the world is deglobalizing. In fact, India still enjoys large export opportunities, especially in labor-intensive sectors such as clothing and footwear. But exploiting these opportunities requires more openness and more global integration. Abandoning export orientation is thus akin to killing the goose that lays golden eggs. Indeed, given constraints on public, corporate and household balance sheets, abandoning export orientation is akin to killing the only goose that can lay eggs.
Journal Article
Trade effects of alternative carbon border-tax schemes
In industrial countries contemplating emissions reductions, there have been calls for additional border taxes on imports from countries with lower carbon prices. A key factor affecting the impact of any border taxes is whether they are based on the carbon content of imports or the carbon content of domestic production. Our quantitative estimates suggest that the former action when applied to all merchandise imports would address competitiveness and environmental concerns in high-income countries but with serious consequences for trading partners. For example, China's manufacturing exports would decline by one-fifth and those of all low- and middle-income countries by 15 %; the corresponding declines in real income would be 3.7 and 2.4 %. Border tax adjustment based on the carbon content in domestic production would broadly address the competitiveness concerns of producers in high-income countries and less adversely affect developing country trade.
Journal Article
Why Did Financial Globalization Disappoint?
The stylized fact that there is no correlation between long-run economic growth and financial globalization has spawned a recent literature that purports to provide newer evidence and arguments in favor of financial globalization. We review this literature and find it unconvincing. The underlying assumptions in this literature are that developing countries are savings-constrained; that access to foreign finance alleviates this to boost investment and long-run growth; and that insofar as there are problems with financial globalization, these can be remedied through deep institutional reforms. In contrast, we argue that developing economies are as or more likely to be investment-than savingsconstrained and that the effect of foreign finance is often to aggravate this investment constraint by appreciating the real exchange rate and reducing profitability and investment opportunities in the traded goods sector, which have adverse long-run growth consequences. It is time for a new paradigm on financial globalization, and one that recognizes that more is not necessarily better. Depending on context and country, the appropriate role of policy will be as often to stem the tide of capital inflows as to encourage them. Policymakers who view their challenges exclusively from the latter perspective risk getting it badly wrong.
Journal Article