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Lesser prairie-chicken ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) populations of in the Sand Sagebrush Prairie Ecoregion of southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado, USA, have declined sharply since the mid-1980s. Decreased quality and availability of habitat are believed to be the main drivers of declines. Our objective was to reconstruct broad-scale change in the ecoregion since 1985 as a potential factor in population declines. We assessed temporal change from 1985–2015 in landcover types and calculated landscape metrics using Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection imagery layers. We also documented presence of anthropogenic structures including oil wells and electrical transmission lines. Landcover type composition changed little since 1990 across the Sand Sagebrush Prairie Ecoregion. However, anthropogenic structures (i.e., oil/gas wells, cell towers, wind farms, and transmission lines) notably increased, potentially causing functional habitat loss at a broad scale. Increased anthropogenic structures may have decreased habitat availability as well as the quality of existing habitat for lesser prairie-chickens, possibly contributing to recent population declines throughout the Sand Sagebrush Prairie Ecoregion.

Researchers and managers are often interested in monitoring the underlying state of a population (e.g., abundance), yet error in the observation process might mask underlying changes due to imperfect detection and availability for sampling. Additional heterogeneity can be introduced into a monitoring program when male-based surveys are used as an index for the total population. Often, male-based surveys are used for avian species, as males are conspicuous and more easily monitored than females. To determine if male-based lek surveys capture changes or trends in population abundance based on female survival and reproduction, we developed a virtual ecologist approach using the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) as an example. Our approach used an individual-based model to simulate lek counts based on female vital rate data, included models where detection and lek attendance probabilities were <1, and was analyzed using both unadjusted counts and an N-mixture model to compare estimates of population abundance and growth rates. Using lek counts to estimate population growth rates without accounting for detection probability or density-based lek attendance consistently biased population growth rates and abundance estimates. Our results therefore suggest that lek-based surveys used without accounting for lek attendance and detection probability may miss important trends in population changes. Rather than population-level inference, lek-based surveys not accounting for lek attendance and detection probability may instead be better for inferring broad-scale range shifts of lesser prairie-chicken populations in a presence/absence framework.

Incubation breaks are necessary for any nesting bird but can increase the mortality risk of the nest or attending parent. How intrinsic and extrinsic variables affect nest attentiveness—the proportion of time a female is on nest during incubation— and subsequent survival of the nest remains unclear for uniparental species. We related female nest attentiveness to nest survival and tested the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic variables on nest attentiveness by female Lesser Prairie‐chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) using GPS locations of 87 females at 109 nest sites in 3 study areas in Kansas during 2013–2015. Daily nest survival increased by 39% when nest attentiveness increased from 21% to 98%. Female Lesser Prairie‐chickens were 18% less attentive as body mass increased from 600 to 920 g. Daily precipitation and temperature, controlled for days into the incubation period, had interactive effects on nest attentiveness with nest attentiveness lowest on cool, wet days and increasing as temperature increased, regardless of precipitation (41% attentiveness at 16°C and 79 mm of precipitation to 90% attentiveness at 37°C and 41 mm of precipitation). Nest attentiveness increased by 11% as the quantity of grass at the nest site increased from 5% to 78% when visual obstruction was at 1 and 2 decimeters (dm) and increased 9% as the quantity of grass at the nest site increased from 5% to 83% when visual obstruction was at its maximum (3 dm). Our findings reveal the critical importance of nest attentiveness and incubation behavior, not only in relation to demography, but within the context of changing environmental conditions. As warmer temperatures and extreme precipitation events become more common and change the growth rates of vegetation, species like the Lesser Prairie‐chicken that are ground‐nesting, rely on vegetation cover, and exhibit uniparental care could experience negative demographic consequences. Over a 3‐year study, we collected movement data of 87 females at 109 nest sites to determine what factors influence incubation behavior and how that influences nest success. We tested both intrinsic and extrinsic factors and found that extrinsic factors, particularly vegetation structure surrounding the nest site influence incubation behavior the most and that incubation behavior does affect nest success.

Recent studies have documented benefits of small, prescribed fire and wildfire for grassland‐dependent wildlife, such as lesser prairie‐chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicintus), but wildlife demographic response to the scale and intensity of megafire (wildfire >40,000 ha) in modern, fragmented grasslands remains unknown. Limited available grassland habitat makes it imperative to understand if increasing frequency of megafires could further reduce already declining lesser prairie‐chicken populations, or if historical evolutionary interactions with fire make lesser prairie‐chickens resilient. To evaluate lesser prairie‐chicken demographic response to megafires, we compared lek counts, nest density, and survival rates of adults, nests, and chicks before (2014–2016) and after (2018–2020) a 2017 megafire in the mixed‐grass prairie of Kansas, USA (Starbuck fire ~254,000 ha). There was a 67% decline in attending males on leks post‐fire and a 57% decline in occupied leks post‐fire. Despite population declines as indicated by lek counts, adult female breeding season survival (Ŝ $$ \\hat{\\mathrm{S}} $$ ) was similar pre‐ (Ŝ $$ \\hat{\\mathrm{S}} $$  = 0.65 ± 0.08 [SE]) and post‐fire (0.61 ± 0.08), as was chick survival (pre‐fire: 0.23 ± 0.07; post‐fire: 0.27 ± 0.11). Nest survival appeared lower post‐fire (pre‐fire: 0.38 ± 0.06; post‐fire: 0.20 ± 0.06), but did not differ at the 95% confidence interval. Nest density of marked females declined 73% in areas burned by megafire. Although lesser prairie‐chickens persisted in the study area and we documented minimal effects on most demographic rates, reduced lesser prairie‐chicken abundance and reproductive output suggests full recovery may take >3 years. Increased propensity for megafire resulting from suppression of smaller fires, compounded by climate change and woody encroachment, may impose a short‐term (3–5 year) threat to already declining lesser prairie‐chicken populations. Megafires are increasing globally and in the Great Plains, USA, potentially threatening grassland dependent wildlife in the region. We examined short‐term lesser prairie‐chicken demographic response to megafire and found minimal impacts to vital rates; however, reproductive output and the overall population declined. While evolutionary interaction with fire likely provided lesser prairie‐chickens some resilience to megafire, increased megafire potential still poses a threat to this declining species.

Conservation translocations are frequently inhibited by extensive dispersal after release, which can expose animals to dispersal‐related mortality or Allee effects due to a lack of nearby conspecifics. However, translocation‐induced dispersals also provide opportunities to study how animals move across a novel landscape, and how their movements are influenced by landscape configuration and anthropogenic features. Translocation among populations is considered a potential conservation strategy for lesser prairie‐chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus). We determined the influence of release area on dispersal frequency by translocated lesser prairie‐chickens and measured how lesser prairie‐chickens move through grassland landscapes through avoidance of anthropogenic features during their dispersal movements. We translocated 411 lesser prairie‐chickens from northwest Kansas to southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas in 2016–2019. We used satellite GPS transmitters to track 115 lesser prairie‐chickens throughout their post‐release dispersal movements. We found that almost all lesser prairie‐chickens that survived from their spring release date until June undergo post‐translocation dispersal, and there was little variation in dispersal frequency by release area (96% of all tracked birds, 100% in Baca County, Colorado, 94% in Morton County, Kansas, n = 55). Dispersal movements (male: 103 ± 73 km, female: 175 ± 108 km, n = 62) led to diffusion across landscapes, with 69% of birds settling >5 km from their release site. During dispersal movements, translocated lesser prairie‐chickens usually travel by a single 3.75 ± 4.95 km dispersal flight per day, selecting for steps that end far from roads and in Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands. Due to this “stepping stone” method of transit, landscape connectivity is optimized when <5 km separates grassland patches on the landscape. Future persistence of lesser prairie‐chicken populations can be aided through conservation of habitat and strategic placement of CRP to maximize habitat connectivity. Dispersal rates suggest that translocation is better suited to objectives for regional, rather than site‐specific, population augmentation for this species. Lesser prairie‐chickens translocated to southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas experienced almost universal dispersal away from the release site (96%). During dispersal movements, lesser prairie‐chickens selected for steps that ended far from roads and in Conservation Reserve Program grasslands. Dispersal rates suggest that translocation is better suited to regional, rather than site‐specific, population augmentation for this species.

Diets during critical brooding and winter periods likely influence the growth of Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) populations. During the brooding period, rapidly growing Lesser Prairie-Chicken chicks have high calorie demands and are restricted to foods within immediate surroundings. For adults and juveniles during cold winters, meeting thermoregulatory demands with available food items of limited nutrient content may be challenging. Our objective was to determine the primary animal and plant components of Lesser Prairie-Chicken diets among native prairie, cropland, and Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) fields in Kansas and Colorado, USA, during brooding and winter using a DNA metabarcoding approach. Lesser Prairie-Chicken fecal samples (n = 314) were collected during summer 2014 and winter 2014–2015, DNA was extracted, amplified, and sequenced. A region of the cytochrome oxidase I (COI) gene was sequenced to determine the arthropod component of the diet, and a portion of the trnL intron region was used to determine the plant component. Relying on fecal DNA to quantify dietary composition, as opposed to traditional visual identification of gut contents, revealed a greater proportion of soft-bodied arthropods than previously recorded. Among 80 fecal samples for which threshold arthropod DNA reads were obtained, 35% of the sequences were most likely from Lepidoptera, 26% from Orthoptera, 14% from Araneae, 13% from Hemiptera, and 12% from other orders. Plant sequences from 137 fecal samples were composed of species similar to Ambrosia (27%), followed by species similar to Lactuca or Taraxacum (10%), Medicago (6%), and Triticum (5%). Forbs were the predominant (>50% of reads) plant food consumed during both brood rearing and winter. The importance both of native forbs and of a broad array of arthropods that rely on forbs suggests that disturbance regimes that promote forbs may be crucial in providing food for Lesser Prairie-Chickens in the northern portion of their distribution.

The Southern Great Plains has been altered by conversion of native grassland to row-crop agriculture, which is considered the primary cause of declining lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) populations. However, recent analyses indicate that direct loss of grassland has slowed while lesser prairie-chicken populations continue to decline, suggesting that remaining grasslands potentially suffer from degradation by various land uses (e.g., increased anthropogenic disturbance). Understanding the spatial ecology of lesser prairie-chickens relative to anthropogenic structures is important for conservation planning, habitat management, and infrastructure mitigation. We investigated effects of proximity to anthropogenic structures on home range and nest placement (second-order selection) and within home range space use (third-order selection) of radio-marked lesser prairie-chickens (n = 285) at 2 scales of selection using resource utilization functions and resource selection functions. We collected data from birds marked in the Mixed-Grass Prairie and Short-Grass Prairie ecoregions of Kansas, USA, from 15 March 2013 to 14 March 2016. Home range placement did not vary by region or season, and lesser prairie-chickens placed home ranges farther from powerlines and roads than would be expected at random. As distance increased from 0 to 3 km away from roads and powerlines, the relative probability of home range placement increased 1.66 and 1.54 times, respectively. Distance to powerline was the single most consistent variable negatively affecting nest placement. As the distance from powerline increased from 0 to 3 km, the relative probability of nest placement increased 2.19 times. Distance to oil well did not influence placement of home ranges or nests. When pooled across regions, lesser prairie-chickens exhibited behavioral avoidance of powerlines, roads, and oil wells within their home range. Lesser prairie-chickens, on average, used space at greater intensities within their home range farther from wells, powerlines, and roads than available. Across breeding season phases, we found no evidence of increased behavioral avoidance of anthropogenic structures during the nesting or brooding phases compared to the lekking or post-breeding phases. Within home range space use during the brooding phase was not related to powerlines, wells, or roads. Our results indicate that avoidance of anthropogenic structures may result in functional habitat loss and continued fragmentation of remaining grassland habitat. Reduction or elimination of anthropogenic development in quality lesser prairie-chicken habitat and concentrating new development in already altered areas that are avoided by lesser prairie-chickens and no longer considered available habitat may reduce continued habitat degradation throughout the species’ range and aid in population persistence.

Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) populations have declined throughout most of their distribution since the mid-1980s. These declines are largely attributed to loss of habitat through the conversion and expansion of cropland, construction of oil wells and other anthropogenic features on the landscape, and grazing intensification. Changes in habitat availability and quality are seemingly having a disproportionate effect on the reproductive habitat of Lesser Prairie-Chickens, as some populations continue to decline. Nest and brood survival are crucial to population growth of Lesser Prairie-Chickens, with adequate reproductive habitat vital to population persistence. To better understand the influence of reproductive habitat availability on populations, we quantified the composition of reproductive habitat in lek landscapes across the northern extent of the Lesser Prairie-Chicken range. We measured vegetation at six study sites in Kansas and Colorado from 2013–2016. We sought to quantify available nest and brooding habitat adjacent to leks, investigate the relationship between reproductive habitat availability and lek attendance by males at several spatial scales, and examine vegetation characteristics that influence lek attendance. Within 5 km of a lek, 25% (2546/10,320 points) and 26% (2682/10,320 points) of random locations provided nesting and brooding habitat, respectively. Changes to reproductive habitat at both scales affected male attendance at leks. Visual obstruction of vegetation was the main predictor of male lek attendance at both spatial scales and limited the amount of reproductive habitat in lek landscapes. Accordingly, management should increase visual obstruction throughout the Lesser Prairie-Chicken range to increase reproductive success and improve populations to facilitate achieving the conservation goal set by the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies of a 10 y average Lesser Prairie-Chicken population of 67,000 birds.

Knowledge of landscape and regional circumstances where conservation programs are successful on working lands in agricultural production are needed. Converting marginal croplands to grasslands using conservation programs such as the United States Department of Agriculture Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) should be beneficial for many grassland-obligate wildlife species; however, addition of CRP grasslands may result in different population effects based on regional climate, characteristics of the surrounding landscape, or species planted or established. Within landscapes occupied by lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), CRP may provide habitat only for specific life stages and habitat selection for CRP may vary between wet and dry years. Among all study sites, we captured and fitted 280 female lesser prairie-chickens with very high frequency (VHF)- and global positioning system (GPS) transmitters during the spring lekking seasons of 2013–2015 to monitor habitat selection for CRP in regions of varying climate. We also estimated vital rates and habitat selection for 148 individuals, using sites in northwest Kansas, USA. The greatest ecological services of CRP became apparent when examining habitat selection and densities. Nest densities were approximately 3 times greater in CRP grasslands than native working grasslands (i.e., grazed), demonstrating a population-level benefit (CRP = 6.0 nests/10 km² ± 1.29 [SE], native working grassland = 1.7 nests/10 km² ± 0.62). However, CRP supporting high nest density did not provide brood habitat; 85% of females with broods surviving to 7 days moved their young to other cover types. Regression analyses indicated lesser prairie-chickens were approximately 8 times more likely to use CRP when 5,000-ha landscapes were 70% rather than 20% grassland, indicating variation in the level of ecological services provided by CRP was dependent upon composition of the larger landscape. Further, CRP grasslands were 1.7 times more likely to be used by lesser prairie-chickens in regions receiving 40 cm compared to 70 cm of average annual precipitation and during years of greater drought intensity. Demographic and resource selection analyses revealed that establishing CRP grasslands in northwest Kansas can increase the amount nesting habitat in a region where it may have previously been limited, thereby providing refugia to sustain populations through periods of extreme drought. Nest survival, adult survival during breeding, and nonbreeding season survival did not vary between lesser prairie-chickens that used and did not use CRP grasslands. The finite rate of population growth was also similar for birds using CRP and using only native working grasslands, suggesting that CRP provides habitat similar to that of native working grassland in this region. Overall, lesser prairie-chickens may thrive in landscapes that are a mosaic of native working grassland, CRP grassland, with a minimal amount of cropland, particularly when nesting and brood habitat are in close proximity.

ABSTRACT Land use change in prairie ecosystems is pervasive. Prairie obligate species may be affected by these changes, though many carnivore‐specific examples are unknown. We used 3 years (2018–2020) of camera‐trap (n = 381) data from Kansas, USA, to assess multiscale effects of landscape composition on habitat use by American badgers (badger, Taxidea taxus). We predicted that site occupancy and colonization would be positively associated with the amount of prairie surrounding sites. We also predicted that site occupancy and colonization would be negatively related to amounts of agriculture and the number of wind towers surrounding sites. Badgers were insensitive to amounts of prairie surrounding sites and likely to occupy and colonize sites surrounded by row‐crop agriculture. Badgers were also less likely to occupy sites farther from permanent water. Badgers may be exploiting agricultural areas because of increased prey densities or suitable burrowing substrates. Moreover, our study highlights the importance of water resources to badgers in arid regions.