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The beautiful brain : the drawings of Santiago Ramâon y Cajal /
Santiago Ramâon y Cajal (1852-1934) was the father of modern neuroscience and an exceptional artist. He devoted his life to the anatomy of the brain, the body's most complex and mysterious organ. His superhuman feats of visualization, based on fanatically precise techniques and countless hours at the microscope, resulted in some of the most remarkable illustrations in the history of science. Beautiful Brain presents a selection of his exquisite drawings of brain cells, brain regions, and neural circuits with accessible descriptive commentary.
Book
An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”
Regressions of private-sector macroeconomic forecast revisions on monetary policy surprises often produce coefficients with signs opposite to standard macroeconomic models. The “Fed information effect” argues these puzzling results are due to monetary policy surprises revealing Fed private information. We show they are also consistent with a “Fed response to news” channel, where both the Fed and professional forecasters respond to incoming economic news. We present new evidence challenging the Fed information effect and supporting the Fed response to news channel, including: regressions that control for economic news, our own survey of professional forecasters, and financial market responses to FOMC announcements.
Journal Article
Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates
According to standard macroeconomic models, the zero lower bound greatly reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy and increases the efficacy of fiscal policy. However, private-sector decisions depend on the entire path of expected future short-term interest rates, not just the current short-term rate. Put differently, longer-term yields matter. We show how to measure the zero bound's effects on yields of any maturity. Indeed, 1- and 2-year Treasury yields were surprisingly unconstrained throughout 2008 to 2010, suggesting that monetary and fiscal policy were about as effective as usual during this period. Only beginning in late 2011 did these yields become more constrained.
Journal Article
The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve’s Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies
I separately identify and estimate the effects of innovations to the Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate, forward guidance, and large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) policies on the US economy. I extend the high-frequency identification strategy of Bauer and Swanson (NBER Macroecon Annu 37:87–155, 2023b) for monetary policy VARs by allowing each of the above policies to have possibly different economic effects. I follow Swanson (J Monetary Econ 118:32–53, 2021) and Swanson and Jayawickrema (Speeches by the Fed Chair Are More Important than FOMC Announcements: An Improved High-Frequency Measure of US Monetary Policy Shocks. University of California, Irvine, 2024) to separately identify federal funds rate, forward guidance, and LSAP components of monetary policy announcements using high-frequency interest rate changes around the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, post-FOMC press conferences, FOMC meeting minutes releases, and speeches and testimony by the Fed Chair and Vice Chair. I estimate that federal funds rate shocks had the most powerful effects on the US economy, followed by shocks to forward guidance and, lastly, LSAPs, although the standard errors around each of these estimates are substantial.
Journal Article
The spatial landscape of lung pathology during COVID-19 progression
Recent studies have provided insights into the pathology of and immune response to COVID-19
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. However, a thorough investigation of the interplay between infected cells and the immune system at sites of infection has been lacking. Here we use high-parameter imaging mass cytometry
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that targets the expression of 36 proteins to investigate the cellular composition and spatial architecture of acute lung injury in humans (including injuries derived from SARS-CoV-2 infection) at single-cell resolution. These spatially resolved single-cell data unravel the disordered structure of the infected and injured lung, alongside the distribution of extensive immune infiltration. Neutrophil and macrophage infiltration are hallmarks of bacterial pneumonia and COVID-19, respectively. We provide evidence that SARS-CoV-2 infects predominantly alveolar epithelial cells and induces a localized hyperinflammatory cell state that is associated with lung damage. We leverage the temporal range of fatal outcomes of COVID-19 in relation to the onset of symptoms, which reveals increased macrophage extravasation and increased numbers of mesenchymal cells and fibroblasts concomitant with increased proximity between these cell types as the disease progresses—possibly as a result of attempts to repair the damaged lung tissue. Our data enable us to develop a biologically interpretable landscape of lung pathology from a structural, immunological and clinical standpoint. We use this landscape to characterize the pathophysiology of the human lung from its macroscopic presentation to the single-cell level, which provides an important basis for understanding COVID-19 and lung pathology in general.
Imaging mass cytometry of the human lung reveals the cellular composition and spatial architecture during COVID-19 and other acute injuries, enabling the characterization of lung pathophysiology from structural, immunological and clinical perspectives.
Journal Article
The Federal Reserve Is Not Very Constrained by the Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates
I survey the literature on monetary policy at the zero lower bound (ZLB) and effective lower bound (ELB) to make three main points: First, the Federal Reserve’s forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases are effective monetary policy tools at the ZLB/ELB. Second, during the 2008–15 U.S. ZLB period, the Fed was not very constrained in its ability to influence medium- and longer-term interest rates and the economy. And third, the risks of the Fed being significantly constrained by the ELB in the future are typically greatly overstated. I conclude that the Federal Reserve is not very constrained by the lower bound on nominal interest rates.
Journal Article
The Importance of Fed Chair Speeches as a Monetary Policy Tool
I estimate the effects of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, post-FOMC press conferences, and speeches and Congressional testimony by the Fed chair on stock prices, Treasury yields, and interest rate futures from 1988 to 2019. I show that for all but the very shortest-maturity interest rate futures, Fed chair speeches are more important than FOMC announcements. My results suggest that the previous literature's focus on FOMC announcements has ignored the most important source of variation in US monetary policy.
Journal Article
Let's Twist Again: A High-Frequency Event-Study Analysis of Operation Twist and Its Implications for QE2 with Comments and Discussion
This paper undertakes a modern event-study analysis of Operation Twist and uses its estimated effects to assess what should be expected for the recent policy of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, dubbed \"QE2.\" The paper first shows that Operation Twist and QE2 are similar in magnitude. It then identifies six significant, discrete announcements in the course of Operation Twist that could have had a major effect on financial markets and shows that four did have statistically significant effects. The cumulative effect of these six announcements on longer-term Treasury yields is highly statistically significant but moderate, amounting to about 15 basis points (bp). This estimate is consistent both with time-series analysis undertaken not long after the event and with the lower end of empirical estimates of Treasury supply effects in the literature. The effects of Operation Twist on long-term agency and corporate bond yields are also statistically significant but smaller, about 13 bp for agency securities and 2 to 4 bp for corporates. Thus, the effects of Operation Twist seem to diminish substantially as one moves from Treasury securities toward private sector credit instruments.
Journal Article
Risk Aversion and the Labor Margin in Dynamic Equilibrium Models
The household's labor margin has a substantial effect on risk aversion, and hence asset prices, in dynamic equilibrium models even when utility is additively separable between consumption and labor. This paper derives simple, closed-form expressions for risk aversion that take into account the household's labor margin. Ignoring this margin can dramatically overstate the household's true aversion to risk. Risk premia on assets priced with the stochastic discount factor increase essentially linearly with risk aversion, so measuring risk aversion correctly is crucial for asset pricing in the model.
Journal Article