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result(s) for
"Tan, Chaodong"
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Optimal Design of Off-Grid Wind–Solar–Hydrogen Integrated Energy System Considering Power and Hydrogen Storage: A General Method
2026
Existing design methodologies for off-grid wind–solar–hydrogen integrated energy systems (WSH-IES) are typically case-specific and lack portability. This study aims to establish a unified design framework to enhance cross-scenario applicability while retaining case-specific adaptability. The proposed framework employs the superstructure concept, dividing the off-grid WSH-IES into three subsystems: energy production, conversion, and storage subsystems. The framework integrates equipment selection and capacity sizing into a unified optimization process described by a mixed-integer programming model. Additionally, the modular constraint template ensures generalizability across scenarios by linking the local resource protocol to the techno-economic parameters of the equipment, allowing the model to be adapted to various situations. The model was applied to two case studies. Economic analysis indicates that the pure electricity architecture is dominated by energy storage (battery costs account for 96.8%), while the hybrid architecture redistributes expenditures between batteries (67.8%) and electrolyzers (28.4%). It utilizes hydrogen as a complementary medium for long-duration energy storage, achieving cost risk diversification and enhanced resilience. Under current techno-economic conditions, real-time bidirectional electricity–hydrogen conversion offers no economic benefits. This framework quantifies cost drivers and design trade-offs for off-grid WSH-IES, providing an open modeling platform for academic research and planning applications.
Journal Article
Dynamic coupling modelling and application case analysis of high-slip motors and pumping units
2020
To solve the issues and difficulties in the high-coupling modelling of beam pumping units and high-slip motors, external characteristic experiments of high-slip motors were performed where the external database and characteristic correlation equations of the motors were obtained through data regression analysis. Based on the analysis of the kinematics, dynamics and driving characteristics of the beam pumping unit, a fully coupled mathematical model of a motor, pumping unit, sucker rod and oil pump was established. The differential pumping equation system of the pumping unit used a cyclic iteration method to solve the problem of high coupling among the motor, pumping unit, sucker rod and the pumping pump. The model was verified by experimental data of field l pumping wells. Theoretical calculations and experimental tests showed that the soft characteristic of the high-slip motor can reduce the peak suspension load of the sucker rod, peak net torque of the gearbox and peak power of the motor. In addition, the results show that the soft characteristic can also decrease the high-frequency fluctuation of the motor power curve and the torque curve of the gearbox. The high-slip motor can improve the smoothness and safety of the pumping well system.
Journal Article
Optimal Scheduling of Wind–Solar Power Generation and Coalbed Methane Well Pumping Systems
2026
With the integrated development of new energy and oil and gas production, introducing wind–solar–storage microgrids in coalbed methane well screw pump discharge systems enhances the renewable energy proportion while promoting green development. However, the cyclical, volatile, and random characteristics of wind and photovoltaic generation create scheduling challenges, with insufficient green power consumption reducing renewable energy utilization efficiency and increasing grid dependence. This study establishes an operation scheduling optimization model for coalbed methane well screw pump discharge systems under wind–solar–storage microgrids, minimizing daily operation costs with screw pump rotational speed as decision variables. The model incorporates power constraints of generation units and production constraints of screw pumps, solved using particle swarm optimization. Results demonstrate that energy storage batteries effectively smooth wind and photovoltaic fluctuations, enhance regulation capabilities, and improve green power utilization while reducing grid purchases and system operation costs. At different coalbed methane extraction stages, the model optimally adjusts screw pump rotational speed according to renewable generation, ensuring high pump efficiency while minimizing operation costs, enhancing green power consumption capacity, and meeting daily drainage requirements.
Journal Article
Drilling and Completion Condition Recognition Algorithm Based on CNN-GNN-LSTM Neural Networks and Applications
2025
Drilling and completion condition identification is of great significance in improving operational efficiency, reducing safety risks and optimizing resource utilization. However, traditional methods rely on experts’ experience and rules and have low recognition accuracy and poor robustness when facing dynamic working condition changes. In recent years, deep learning technology has shown great potential in the field of time series data analysis and multimodal data fusion. In this paper, we propose a hybrid deep learning model (CNN-GNN-LSTM) based on a convolutional neural network (CNN), graph neural network (GNN) and long short-term memory network (LSTM). The model extracts the local spatial features of multi-sensors via a CNN module to reduce the noise interference; models the nonlinear dependency between sensors via a GNN module to capture the complex interaction relationship; and mines the long- and short-term time dependencies via an LSTM module to accurately identify the dynamic change and transition process of the working conditions. This significantly improves the classification accuracy under dynamic changes in multi-conditions. This study compares the performance of four models: a CNN, LSTM, CNN-LSTM, and CNN-GNN-LSTM. The results show that the CNN-GNN-LSTM outperforms the other models in key metrics such as the classification accuracy, recall, F1 score, etc., and is more robust to noise interference and changes in complex working conditions. This study verifies the advantages of the hybrid model in multi-sensor complex scenarios and provides technical support for the intelligent development of drilling and completion condition recognition.
Journal Article
Reservoir Permeability Prediction Based on Analogy and Machine Learning Methods: Field Cases in DLG Block of Jing’an Oilfield, China
2022
Reservoir permeability, generally determined by experimental or well testing methods, is an essential parameter in the oil and gas field development. In this paper, we present a novel analogy and machine learning method to predict reservoir permeability. Firstly, the core test and production data of other 24 blocks (analog blocks) are counted according to the DLG block (target block) of Jing’an Oilfield, and the permeability analogy parameters including porosity, shale content, reservoir thickness, oil saturation, liquid production, and production pressure difference are optimized by Pearson and principal component analysis. Then, the fuzzy matter element method is used to calculate the similarity between the target block and analog blocks. According to the similarity calculation results, reservoir permeability of DLG block is predicted by reservoir engineering method (the relationship between core permeability and porosity of QK-D7 in similar blocks) and machine learning method (random forest, gradient boosting decision tree, light gradient boosting machine, and categorical boosting). By comparing the prediction accuracy of the two methods through the evaluation index determination coefficient (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE), the CatBoost model has higher accuracy in predicting reservoir permeability, with R2 of 0.951 and RMSE of 0.139. Finally, the CatBoost model is selected to predict reservoir permeability of 121 oil wells in the DLG block. This work uses simple logging and production data to quickly and accurately predict reservoir permeability without coring and testing. At the same time, the prediction results are well applied to the formulation of DLG block development technology strategy, which provides a new idea for the application of machine learning to predict oilfield parameters.
Journal Article
A Continuous-Time-Based MILP Model for Production and Transportation Scheduling in Nonpipelined Wells in Low-Permeability Oil Fields
2022
The marginal wells in low-permeability oilfields are characterized by small storage size, scattered distribution, large regional span, low production, intermittent production, etc. The production mode of these wells is nonpipeline mode. In our previous work (Zhang et al., 2019), a novel mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model using a discrete-time representation was presented for the operation scheduling of nonpipelined wells. However, too many discretization time points are required to ensure the accuracy of the model. Even for moderately sized problems, computationally intractable models can arise. The present paper describes a new continuous-time representation method to reformulate this schedule optimization problem. By introducing the continuous-time representation, the binary variables are largely reduced. The solution effect for different model sizes is also investigated. When the model size increases to a certain degree, a feasible solution cannot be obtained within a limited time. The results of a case study originated from a real oilfield in China show that the continuous-time model requires less time to obtain the optimal solution compared to the discrete-time model. In details, considering a same scale problem, the solution based on the continuous-time model saves 52.25% of the time comparing with the discrete-time model. The comparison validates the new model’s superiority.
Journal Article
The Health Index Prediction Model and Application of PCP in CBM Wells Based on Deep Learning
2021
Aiming at the problems of the current production and operation status of the progressive cavity pump (PCP) in coalbed methane (CBM) wells which cannot be timely monitored, quantitatively evaluated, and accurately predicted, a five-step method for evaluating and predicting the health status of PCP wells is proposed: data preprocessing, principal parameter optimization, health index construction, health degree division, and health index prediction. Therein, a health index (HI) formulation was made based on deep learning, and a statistical method was used to define the health status of PCP wells as being healthy, subhealthy, or faulty. This allowed further research on the HI prediction model of PCP wells based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) network. As demonstrated in the study, they can reflect both the change trend and the contextual relevance of the health status of PCP wells with high accuracy to achieve real-time, quantitative, and accurate assessment and prediction. At the same time, the conclusion gives good guidance on the production performance analysis and failure warning of the PCP wells and suggests a new direction for the health status assessment and warning of other artificial lift equipment.
Journal Article
Fracturing Productivity Prediction Model and Optimization of the Operation Parameters of Shale Gas Well Based on Machine Learning,Fracturing Productivity Prediction Model and Optimization of the Operation Parameters of Shale Gas Well Based on Machine LearningJ
2021
Based on the massive static and dynamic data of 137 fractured wells in WY shale gas block in Sichuan, China, this paper carried out the analysis of shale gas fracturing production influencing factors, production prediction model, and fracturing parameter optimization model research. Taking geological, engineering, fracturing operation, and production data of fractured wells in WY block as data set, the main control analysis method is used to construct the shale gas fracturing production influencing factors as the sample set. A production prediction model based on six machine learning (ML) algorithms including random forest (RF), back propagation (BP) neural network, support vector regression (SVR), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), and multivariable linear regression (LR) has been established; the evaluation results show that the XGBoost model has the best performance on this sample set. The selection method of shale gas well fracturing operation scheme set is studied; the production rate and the ratio of cost and profit (ROCP) are comprehensively considered to select the final fracturing operation scheme. Research result shows that the data-driven production prediction model and fracturing parameter optimization model can not only be used to predict the production of shale gas fracturing and optimize operation parameters but also realize the sensitivity analysis of fracturing parameters and the effect comparison of fracturing operation schemes, which has good field application value.
Journal Article
Fault Diagnosis Method and Application of ESP Well Based on SPC Rules and Real-Time Data Fusion
2022
Aiming at the popularization and application of a real-time monitoring parameter acquisition system of the electric submersible pump (ESP) well, this paper proposes a fault diagnosis method of ESP well operation based on the SPC rule and prior knowledge fusion. Based on the study of parameter variation rules of ESP well, the SPC expansion rule model is established; by analyzing the variation of some typical characteristic parameters of ESP well, combined with SPC expansion rules and expert experience, a priori knowledge of fault diagnosis of ESP well is formed, that is, multiparameter fault analysis table and weight factor; the SPC extended rule model and prior knowledge are fused to establish the fault probability model of ESP well, form the fault diagnosis method of ESP well, develop the online fault diagnosis software of ESP well, and deploy it in 425 ESP wells in a block. Taking five types of tubing leakage, pump wear, shaft breakage, gas influence, and pump plugging as examples, the application process of fault diagnosis method is analyzed. The research and application show that compared with other fault diagnosis methods, this method needs a smaller time window and higher diagnosis accuracy. By setting multiple time windows, this diagnosis method is applied to calculate the fault probability of ESP well in real time, solve the real time and accurate identification of 14 sudden faults and gradual faults, and significantly improve the intelligent diagnosis level of production faults of ESP well.
Journal Article
Machine Learning Model of Oilfield Productivity Prediction and Performance Evaluation
by
Lu, Chuan
,
Tan, Chaodong
,
Yang, Shuo
in
Algorithms
,
Back propagation networks
,
Machine learning
2023
Accurate and efficient prediction of oilfield productivity is very important for the formulation of development and adjustment plans. Machine learning (ML) productivity prediction model can quickly obtain the productivity of oilfield development. In this paper, an oilfield development productivity prediction model based on five ML algorithms including multivariable linear regression (LR), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), back propagation (BP) neural network and long short term memory (LSTM) neural network is established. Through the evaluation of model performance indicators (include the root mean square error (RMSE), the coefficient of determination (R 2 ), the mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)), the best performance prediction model is selected. The research results show that the prediction results of LR model are greatly affected by the data of high productivity oil wells, XGBoost model are easily affected by fitting, and BP neural network model is far less effective than other models. Through comprehensive comparison of prediction results, LightGBM model has better stability and generalization performance. The difference between the prediction results of each model is mainly caused by the characteristics of the algorithm and the size of the data sets. At the same time, LSTM can predict the future oil well production based on the oil well time series observation data. The research results of this paper have guiding significance for the selection of productivity prediction model for oilfield development based on data-driven.
Journal Article