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It is widely believed that research that builds upon previously published findings has reproduced the original work. However, it is rare for researchers to perform or publish direct replications of existing results. The Reproducibility Project: Cancer Biology is an open investigation of reproducibility in preclinical cancer biology research. We have identified 50 high impact cancer biology articles published in the period 2010-2012, and plan to replicate a subset of experimental results from each article. A Registered Report detailing the proposed experimental designs and protocols for each subset of experiments will be peer reviewed and published prior to data collection. The results of these experiments will then be published in a Replication Study. The resulting open methodology and dataset will provide evidence about the reproducibility of high-impact results, and an opportunity to identify predictors of reproducibility.

For prostate cancer patients, the Gleason score is one of the most important prognostic factors, potentially determining treatment independent of the stage. However, Gleason scoring is based on subjective microscopic examination of tumor morphology and suffers from poor reproducibility. Here we present a deep learning system (DLS) for Gleason scoring whole-slide images of prostatectomies. Our system was developed using 112 million pathologist-annotated image patches from 1226 slides, and evaluated on an independent validation dataset of 331 slides. Compared to a reference standard provided by genitourinary pathology experts, the mean accuracy among 29 general pathologists was 0.61 on the validation set. The DLS achieved a significantly higher diagnostic accuracy of 0.70 ( p  = 0.002) and trended towards better patient risk stratification in correlations to clinical follow-up data. Our approach could improve the accuracy of Gleason scoring and subsequent therapy decisions, particularly where specialist expertise is unavailable. The DLS also goes beyond the current Gleason system to more finely characterize and quantitate tumor morphology, providing opportunities for refinement of the Gleason system itself.

Deriving interpretable prognostic features from deep-learning-based prognostic histopathology models remains a challenge. In this study, we developed a deep learning system (DLS) for predicting disease-specific survival for stage II and III colorectal cancer using 3652 cases (27,300 slides). When evaluated on two validation datasets containing 1239 cases (9340 slides) and 738 cases (7140 slides), respectively, the DLS achieved a 5-year disease-specific survival AUC of 0.70 (95% CI: 0.66–0.73) and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.64–0.72), and added significant predictive value to a set of nine clinicopathologic features. To interpret the DLS, we explored the ability of different human-interpretable features to explain the variance in DLS scores. We observed that clinicopathologic features such as T-category, N-category, and grade explained a small fraction of the variance in DLS scores ( R 2  = 18% in both validation sets). Next, we generated human-interpretable histologic features by clustering embeddings from a deep-learning-based image-similarity model and showed that they explained the majority of the variance ( R 2 of 73–80%). Furthermore, the clustering-derived feature most strongly associated with high DLS scores was also highly prognostic in isolation. With a distinct visual appearance (poorly differentiated tumor cell clusters adjacent to adipose tissue), this feature was identified by annotators with 87.0–95.5% accuracy. Our approach can be used to explain predictions from a prognostic deep learning model and uncover potentially-novel prognostic features that can be reliably identified by people for future validation studies.

Both histologic subtypes and tumor mutation burden (TMB) represent important biomarkers in lung cancer, with implications for patient prognosis and treatment decisions. Typically, TMB is evaluated by comprehensive genomic profiling but this requires use of finite tissue specimens and costly, time-consuming laboratory processes. Histologic subtype classification represents an established component of lung adenocarcinoma histopathology, but can be challenging and is associated with substantial inter-pathologist variability. Here we developed a deep learning system to both classify histologic patterns in lung adenocarcinoma and predict TMB status using de-identified Hematoxylin and Eosin (H&E) stained whole slide images. We first trained a convolutional neural network to map histologic features across whole slide images of lung cancer resection specimens. On evaluation using an external data source, this model achieved patch-level area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.78–0.98 across nine histologic features. We then integrated the output of this model with clinico-demographic data to develop an interpretable model for TMB classification. The resulting end-to-end system was evaluated on 172 held out cases from TCGA, achieving an AUC of 0.71 (95% CI 0.63–0.80). The benefit of using histologic features in predicting TMB is highlighted by the significant improvement this approach offers over using the clinical features alone (AUC of 0.63 [95% CI 0.53–0.72], p = 0.002). Furthermore, we found that our histologic subtype-based approach achieved performance similar to that of a weakly supervised approach (AUC of 0.72 [95% CI 0.64–0.80]). Together these results underscore that incorporating histologic patterns in biomarker prediction for lung cancer provides informative signals, and that interpretable approaches utilizing these patterns perform comparably with less interpretable, weakly supervised approaches.

Histologic grading of breast cancer involves review and scoring of three well-established morphologic features: mitotic count, nuclear pleomorphism, and tubule formation. Taken together, these features form the basis of the Nottingham Grading System which is used to inform breast cancer characterization and prognosis. In this study, we develop deep learning models to perform histologic scoring of all three components using digitized hematoxylin and eosin-stained slides containing invasive breast carcinoma. We first evaluate model performance using pathologist-based reference standards for each component. To complement this typical approach to evaluation, we further evaluate the deep learning models via prognostic analyses. The individual component models perform at or above published benchmarks for algorithm-based grading approaches, achieving high concordance rates with pathologist grading. Further, prognostic performance using deep learning-based grading is on par with that of pathologists performing review of matched slides. By providing scores for each component feature, the deep-learning based approach also provides the potential to identify the grading components contributing most to prognostic value. This may enable optimized prognostic models, opportunities to improve access to consistent grading, and approaches to better understand the links between histologic features and clinical outcomes in breast cancer.

Background Presence of lymph node metastasis (LNM) influences prognosis and clinical decision-making in colorectal cancer. However, detection of LNM is variable and depends on a number of external factors. Deep learning has shown success in computational pathology, but has struggled to boost performance when combined with known predictors. Methods Machine-learned features are created by clustering deep learning embeddings of small patches of tumor in colorectal cancer via k-means, and then selecting the top clusters that add predictive value to a logistic regression model when combined with known baseline clinicopathological variables. We then analyze performance of logistic regression models trained with and without these machine-learned features in combination with the baseline variables. Results The machine-learned extracted features provide independent signal for the presence of LNM (AUROC: 0.638, 95% CI: [0.590, 0.683]). Furthermore, the machine-learned features add predictive value to the set of 6 clinicopathologic variables in an external validation set (likelihood ratio test, p  < 0.00032; AUROC: 0.740, 95% CI: [0.701, 0.780]). A model incorporating these features can also further risk-stratify patients with and without identified metastasis ( p  < 0.001 for both stage II and stage III). Conclusion This work demonstrates an effective approach to combine deep learning with established clinicopathologic factors in order to identify independently informative features associated with LNM. Further work building on these specific results may have important impact in prognostication and therapeutic decision making for LNM. Additionally, this general computational approach may prove useful in other contexts. Plain language summary When colorectal cancers spread to the lymph nodes, it can indicate a poorer prognosis. However, detecting lymph node metastasis (spread) can be difficult and depends on a number of factors such as how samples are taken and processed. Here, we show that machine learning, which involves computer software learning from patterns in data, can predict lymph node metastasis in patients with colorectal cancer from the microscopic appearance of their primary tumor and the clinical characteristics of the patients. We also show that the same approach can predict patient survival. With further work, our approach may help clinicians to inform patients about their prognosis and decide on appropriate treatments. Krogue et al. develop a deep learning approach for the prediction of lymph node metastasis in patients with colorectal cancer. Computationally-extracted histological features of the primary tumor add predictive value to a set of clinicopathologic factors.

The Prostate Cancer Foundation-Movember Foundation Reproducibility Initiative (PCFMFRI) seeks to address growing concerns about reproducibility in scientific research by conducting replications of recent papers in the field of prostate cancer. This Registered Report describes the proposed replication plan of key experiments from \"The Androgen Receptor Induces a Distinct Transcriptional Program in Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer in Man\" by Sharma and colleagues (2013), published in Cancer Cell in 2013. Of thousands of targets for the androgen receptor (AR), the authors elucidated a subset of 16 core genes that were consistently downregulated with castration and re-emerged with castration resistance. These 16 AR binding sites were distinct from those observed in cells in culture. The authors suggested that cellular context can have dramatic effects on downstream transcriptional regulation of AR binding sites. The present study will attempt to replicate Fig. 7C by comparing gene expression of the 16 core genes identified by Sharma and colleagues in xenograft tumor tissue compared to androgen treated LNCaP cells in vitro. The Prostate Cancer Foundation-Movember Foundation Reproducibility Initiative is a collaboration between the Prostate Cancer Foundation, the Movember Initiative, and Science Exchange, and the results of the replications will be published by PeerJ.

The Prostate Cancer Foundation-Movember Foundation Reproducibility Initiative seeks to address growing concerns about reproducibility in scientific research by conducting replications of recent papers in the field of prostate cancer. This Registered Report describes the proposed replication plan of key experiments from \"Androgen Receptor Splice Variants Determine Taxane Sensitivity in Prostate Cancer\" by Thadani-Mulero and colleagues (2014) published in Cancer Research in 2014. The experiment that will be replicated is reported in Fig. 6A. Thadani-Mulero and colleagues generated xenografts from two prostate cancer cell lines; LuCaP 86.2, which expresses predominantly the ARv567 splice variant of the androgen receptor (AR), and LuCaP 23.1, which expresses the full length AR as well as the ARv7 variant. Treatment of the tumors with the taxane docetaxel showed that the drug inhibited tumor growth of the LuCaP 86.2 cells but not of the LuCaP 23.1 cells, indicating that expression of splice variants of the AR can affect sensitivity to docetaxel. The Prostate Cancer Foundation-Movember Foundation Reproducibility Initiative is a collaboration between the Prostate Cancer Foundation, the Movember Foundation and Science Exchange, and the results of the replications will be published by PeerJ.

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BackgroundBreast cancer management depends on biomarkers including estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (ER/PR/HER2). Though existing scoring systems are widely used and well-validated, they can involve costly preparation and variable interpretation. Additionally, discordances between histology and expected biomarker findings can prompt repeat testing to address biological, interpretative, or technical reasons for unexpected results.MethodsWe developed three independent deep learning systems (DLS) to directly predict ER/PR/HER2 status for both focal tissue regions (patches) and slides using hematoxylin-and-eosin-stained (H&E) images as input. Models were trained and evaluated using pathologist annotated slides from three data sources. Areas under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUCs) were calculated for test sets at both a patch-level (>135 million patches, 181 slides) and slide-level (n = 3274 slides, 1249 cases, 37 sites). Interpretability analyses were performed using Testing with Concept Activation Vectors (TCAV), saliency analysis, and pathologist review of clustered patches.ResultsThe patch-level AUCs are 0.939 (95%CI 0.936–0.941), 0.938 (0.936–0.940), and 0.808 (0.802–0.813) for ER/PR/HER2, respectively. At the slide level, AUCs are 0.86 (95%CI 0.84–0.87), 0.75 (0.73–0.77), and 0.60 (0.56–0.64) for ER/PR/HER2, respectively. Interpretability analyses show known biomarker-histomorphology associations including associations of low-grade and lobular histology with ER/PR positivity, and increased inflammatory infiltrates with triple-negative staining.ConclusionsThis study presents rapid breast cancer biomarker estimation from routine H&E slides and builds on prior advances by prioritizing interpretability of computationally learned features in the context of existing pathological knowledge.Plain language summaryBreast cancer diagnosis and characterization involves evaluation of marker proteins found inside or on the surface of tumor cells. Three of the most important markers are estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR) and a receptor called HER2. The levels of these markers can influence how a person with breast cancer is treated in the clinic. This study explored the ability of machine learning – whereby computer software is trained to recognise and classify particular image features - to determine the status of these markers in digitized images, without the need for tissue stains. Our results demonstrate that machine learning can automatically predict the status of ER, PR and HER2 in pathology images and further testing identifies specific image features which enable these predictions. This type of approach may decrease costs and timelines and enable improved quality control in marker detection.