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The impacts and threats posed by wildfires are dramatically increasing due to climate change. In recent years, the wildfire community has attempted to estimate wildfire occurrence with machine learning models. However, to fully exploit the potential of these models, it is of paramount importance to make their predictions interpretable and intelligible. This study is a first attempt to provide an eXplainable artificial intelligence (XAI) framework for estimating wildfire occurrence using a Random Forest model with Shapley values for interpretation. Our findings accurately detected regions with a high presence of wildfires (area under the curve 81.3%) and outlined the drivers empowering occurrence, such as the Fire Weather Index and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. Furthermore, our analysis suggests the presence of anomalous hotspots. In contexts where human and natural spheres constantly intermingle and interact, the XAI framework, suitably integrated into decision support systems, could support forest managers to prevent and mitigate future wildfire disasters and develop strategies for effective fire management, response, recovery, and resilience.

University rankings are increasingly adopted for academic comparison and success quantification, even to establish performance-based criteria for funding assignment. However, rankings are not neutral tools, and their use frequently overlooks disparities in the starting conditions of institutions. In this research, we detect and measure structural biases that affect in inhomogeneous ways the ranking outcomes of universities from diversified territorial and educational contexts. Moreover, we develop a fairer rating system based on a fully data-driven debiasing strategy that returns an equity-oriented redefinition of the achieved scores. The key idea consists in partitioning universities in similarity groups, determined from multifaceted data using complex network analysis, and referring the performance of each institution to an expectation based on its peers. Significant evidence of territorial biases emerges for official rankings concerning both the OECD and Italian university systems, hence debiasing provides relevant insights suggesting the design of fairer strategies for performance-based funding allocations.

Nowadays, world rankings are promoted and used by international agencies, governments and corporations to evaluate country performances in a specific domain, often providing a guideline for decision makers. Although rankings allow a direct and quantitative comparison of countries, sometimes they provide a rather oversimplified representation, in which relevant aspects related to socio-economic development are either not properly considered or still analyzed in silos. In an increasingly data-driven society, a new generation of cutting-edge technologies is breaking data silos, enabling new use of public indicators to generate value for multiple stakeholders. We propose a complex network framework based on publicly available indicators to extract important insight underlying global rankings, thus adding value and significance to knowledge provided by these rankings. This approach enables the unsupervised identification of communities of countries, establishing a more targeted, fair and meaningful criterion to detect similarities. Hence, the performance of states in global rankings can be assessed based on their development level. We believe that these evaluations can be crucial in the interpretation of global rankings, making comparison between countries more significant and useful for citizens and governments and creating ecosystems for new opportunities for development.

In recent years, several studies have demonstrated that machine learning and deep learning systems can be very useful to accurately predict brain age. In this work, we propose a novel approach based on complex networks using 1016 T1-weighted MRI brain scans (in the age range 7−64years). We introduce a structural connectivity model of the human brain: MRI scans are divided in rectangular boxes and Pearson’s correlation is measured among them in order to obtain a complex network model. Brain connectivity is then characterized through few and easy-to-interpret centrality measures; finally, brain age is predicted by feeding a compact deep neural network. The proposed approach is accurate, robust and computationally efficient, despite the large and heterogeneous dataset used. Age prediction accuracy, in terms of correlation between predicted and actual age r=0.89and Mean Absolute Error MAE =2.19years, compares favorably with results from state-of-the-art approaches. On an independent test set including 262 subjects, whose scans were acquired with different scanners and protocols we found MAE =2.52. The only imaging analysis steps required in the proposed framework are brain extraction and linear registration, hence robust results are obtained with a low computational cost. In addition, the network model provides a novel insight on aging patterns within the brain and specific information about anatomical districts displaying relevant changes with aging.

Predicting brain age has become one of the most attractive challenges in computational neuroscience due to the role of the predicted age as an effective biomarker for different brain diseases and conditions. A great variety of machine learning (ML) approaches and deep learning (DL) techniques have been proposed to predict age from brain magnetic resonance imaging scans. If on one hand, DL models could improve performance and reduce model bias compared to other less complex ML methods, on the other hand, they are typically black boxes as do not provide an in-depth understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods have been recently introduced to provide interpretable decisions of ML and DL algorithms both at local and global level. In this work, we present an explainable DL framework to predict the age of a healthy cohort of subjects from ABIDE I database by using the morphological features extracted from their MRI scans. We embed the two local XAI methods SHAP and LIME to explain the outcomes of the DL models, determine the contribution of each brain morphological descriptor to the final predicted age of each subject and investigate the reliability of the two methods. Our findings indicate that the SHAP method can provide more reliable explanations for the morphological aging mechanisms and be exploited to identify personalized age-related imaging biomarker.

The advent of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has revolutionized the way human experts, especially from non-computational domains, approach artificial intelligence; this is particularly true for clinical applications where the transparency of the results is often compromised by the algorithmic complexity. Here, we investigate how Alzheimer's disease (AD) affects brain connectivity within a cohort of 432 subjects whose T1 brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging data (MRI) were acquired within the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). In particular, the cohort included 92 patients with AD, 126 normal controls (NC) and 214 subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). We show how graph theory-based models can accurately distinguish these clinical conditions and how Shapley values, borrowed from game theory, can be adopted to make these models intelligible and easy to interpret. Explainability analyses outline the role played by regions like putamen, middle and superior temporal gyrus; from a class-related perspective, it is possible to outline specific regions, such as hippocampus and amygdala for AD and posterior cingulate and precuneus for MCI. The approach is general and could be adopted to outline how brain connectivity affects specific brain regions.

Global warming is one of the most pressing and critical problems facing the world today. It is mainly caused by the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). Understanding how soils respond to rising temperatures is critical for predicting carbon release and informing climate mitigation strategies. Q 10 , a measure of soil microbial respiration, quantifies the increase in CO 2 release caused by a Celsius rise in temperature, serving as a key indicator of this sensitivity. However, predicting Q 10 across diverse soil types remains a challenge, especially when considering the complex interactions between biochemical, microbiome, and environmental factors. In this study, we applied explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to machine learning models to predict soil respiration sensitivity (Q 10 ) and uncover the key factors driving this process. Using SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values, we identified glucose-induced soil respiration and the proportion of bacteria positively associated with Q 10 as the most influential predictors. Our machine learning models achieved an accuracy of , precision of , an AUC-ROC of , and an AUC-PRC of , ensuring robust and reliable predictions. By leveraging t-SNE (t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding) and clustering techniques, we further segmented low Q 10 soils into distinct subgroups, identifying soils with a higher probability of transitioning to high Q 10 states. Our findings not only highlight the potential of XAI in making model predictions transparent and interpretable, but also provide actionable insights into managing soil carbon release in response to climate change. This research bridges the gap between AI-driven environmental modeling and practical applications in agriculture, offering new directions for targeted soil management and climate resilience strategies.

University rankings are published on a regular basis and taken as a reference by a widespread audience of students, researchers, and companies. Nonetheless, rankings can be affected by socio-economic dragging effects, since they often fail to incorporate information on the variegated conditions in which scores are reached. This inability to capture structural inequalities can generate self-reinforcing awarding mechanisms, e.g. in performance-based funding distribution, that amplify existing gaps and prevent from recognizing achievements of universities in difficult or emerging contexts. In a previous study, we demonstrated the existence of a socio-economic territorial bias in general rankings, which rate the global performance of institutions. However, the interplay of the variety of territorial contexts and the different features of specific disciplines can give rise to more complex effects. In this work, we investigate the influence of the local socio-economic condition on the performance of universities in rankings, considering a multidimensional representation of the phenomenon, involving the dependence on subject, time, and type of ranking. Our findings show that bibliometric rankings are significantly more affected than reputational ones by socio-economic dragging, which strikingly emerges especially in the natural and life science areas. We conclude the analysis by decoupling territorial dragging effects from the achieved ranked scores. Universities that benefit the most from the mitigation of the socio-economic territorial bias are typically located in territories, mostly outside Western Europe and North America, hosting either a capital or other important cities.

Raman spectroscopy shows great potential as a diagnostic tool for thyroid cancer due to its ability to detect biochemical changes during cancer development. This technique is particularly valuable because it is non-invasive and label/dye-free. Compared to molecular tests, Raman spectroscopy analyses can more effectively discriminate malignant features, thus reducing unnecessary surgeries. However, one major hurdle to using Raman spectroscopy as a diagnostic tool is the identification of significant patterns and peaks. In this study, we propose a Machine Learning procedure to discriminate healthy/benign versus malignant nodules that produces interpretable results. We collect Raman spectra obtained from histological samples, select a set of peaks with a data-driven and label independent approach and train the algorithms with the relative prominence of the peaks in the selected set. The performance of the considered models, quantified by area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, exceeds 0.9. To enhance the interpretability of the results, we employ eXplainable Artificial Intelligence and compute the contribution of each feature to the prediction of each sample.

We propose a characterization of complex networks, based on the potential of an associated Schrödinger equation. The potential is designed so that the energy spectrum of the Schrödinger equation coincides with the graph spectrum of the normalized Laplacian. Crucial information is retained in the reconstructed potential, which provides a compact representation of the properties of the network structure. The median potential over several random network realizations, which we call ensemble potential , is fitted via a Landau-like function, and its length scale is found to diverge as the critical connection probability is approached from above. The ruggedness of the ensemble potential profile is quantified by using the Higuchi fractal dimension, which displays a maximum at the critical connection probability. This demonstrates that this technique can be successfully employed in the study of random networks, as an alternative indicator of the percolation phase transition. We apply the proposed approach to the investigation of real-world networks describing infrastructures (US power grid). Curiously, although no notion of phase transition can be given for such networks, the fractality of the ensemble potential displays signatures of criticality. We also show that standard techniques (such as the scaling features of the largest connected component) do not detect any signature or remnant of criticality.