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In a randomized trial, patients with brain amyloid deposition but no dementia who received a β-site amyloid precursor protein–cleaving enzyme 1 inhibitor had no benefit with respect to clinical outcomes and worsening on some measures of cognition and daily function.

Verubecestat, an orally administered inhibitor of BACE-1, reduces amyloid concentration in the cerebrospinal fluid. In a randomized, 78-week trial involving patients with mild or moderate Alzheimer’s disease, the drug did not slow cognitive decline as compared with placebo.

With the onset of prevention trials for individuals at high risk for Alzheimer disease, there is increasing need for accurate risk prediction to inform study design and enrollment, but available risk estimates are limited. We developed risk estimates for the incidence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia among cognitively unimpaired individuals by APOE-e4 dose for the genetic disclosure process of the Alzheimer's Prevention Initiative Generation Study, a prevention trial in cognitively unimpaired APOE-e4/e4 homozygote individuals. We included cognitively unimpaired individuals aged 60-75 y, consistent with Generation Study eligibility criteria, from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC) (n = 5,073, 158 APOE-e4/e4), the Rotterdam Study (n = 6,399, 156 APOE-e4/e4), the Framingham Heart Study (n = 4,078, 67 APOE-e4/e4), and the Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging (SALSA) (n = 1,294, 11 APOE-e4/e4). We computed stratified cumulative incidence curves by age (60-64, 65-69, 70-75 y) and APOE-e4 dose, adjusting for the competing risk of mortality, and determined risk of MCI and/or dementia by genotype and baseline age. We also used subdistribution hazard regression to model relative hazard based on age, APOE genotype, sex, education, family history of dementia, vascular risk, subjective memory concerns, and baseline cognitive performance. The four cohorts varied considerably in age, education, ethnicity/race, and APOE-e4 allele frequency. Overall, cumulative incidence was uniformly higher in NACC than in the population-based cohorts. Among APOE-e4/e4 individuals, 5-y cumulative incidence was as follows: in the 60-64-y age stratum, it ranged from 0% to 5.88% in the three population-based cohorts versus 23.06% in NACC; in the 65-69-y age stratum, from 9.42% to 10.39% versus 34.62%; and in the 70-75-y age stratum, from 18.64% to 33.33% versus 38.34%. Five-year incidence of dementia was negligible except for APOE-e4/e4 individuals and those over 70 y. Lifetime incidence (to age 80-85 y) of MCI or dementia for the APOE-e4/e4 individuals in the long-term Framingham and Rotterdam cohorts was 34.69%-38.45% at age 60-64 y, 30.76%-40.26% at 65-69 y, and 33.3%-35.17% at 70-75 y. Confidence limits for these estimates are often wide, particularly for APOE-e4/e4 individuals and for the dementia outcome at 5 y. In regression models, APOE-e4 dose and age both consistently increased risk, as did lower education, subjective memory concerns, poorer baseline cognitive performance, and family history of dementia. We discuss several limitations of the study, including the small numbers of APOE-e4/e4 individuals, missing data and differential dropout, limited ethnic and racial diversity, and differences in definitions of exposure and outcome variables. Estimates of the absolute risk of MCI or dementia, particularly over short time intervals, are sensitive to sampling and a variety of methodological factors. Nonetheless, such estimates were fairly consistent across the population-based cohorts, and lower than those from a convenience cohort and those estimated in prior studies-with implications for informed consent and design for clinical trials targeting high-risk individuals.

Alzheimer disease (AD) is the most common cause of dementia in older individuals (>65 years) and has a long presymptomatic phase. Preventive therapies for AD are not yet available, and potential disease-modifying therapies targeting amyloid-β plaques in symptomatic stages of AD have only just been approved in the United States. Small-molecule inhibitors of β-site amyloid precursor protein (APP)-cleaving enzyme 1 (BACE1; also known as β-secretase 1) reduce the production of amyloid-β peptide and are among the most advanced drug candidates for AD. However, to date all phase II and phase III clinical trials of BACE inhibitors were either concluded without benefit or discontinued owing to futility or the occurrence of adverse effects. Adverse effects included early, mild cognitive impairment that was associated with all but one inhibitor; preliminary results suggest that the cognitive effects are non-progressive and reversible. These discontinuations have raised questions regarding the suitability of BACE1 as a drug target for AD. In this Perspective, we discuss the status of BACE inhibitors and suggest ways in which the results of the discontinued trials can inform the development of future clinical trials of BACE inhibitors and related secretase modulators as preventative therapies. We also propose a series of experiments that should be performed to inform ‘go–no-go’ decisions in future trials with BACE inhibitors and consider the possibility that low levels of BACE1 inhibition could avoid adverse effects while achieving efficacy for AD prevention.To date, all phase III trials of β-site amyloid precursor protein (APP)-cleaving enzyme (BACE) inhibitors for Alzheimer disease were either discontinued or produced negative results. Here the authors present their opinion that BACE inhibitors still hold promise as a preventative therapy for Alzheimer disease and outline a series of experiments to inform future trials.

Background: Currently approved Alzheimer's disease (AD) treatments have been reported to provide symptomatic benefit, without proven impact on clinical progression. We hypothesized that the loss of initial therapeutic benefit over time may be mitigated by higher doses of a cholinesterase inhibitor. Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the effectiveness and tolerability of increasing donepezil from 10 to 23 mg/d in patients with moderate to severe AD. Methods: This randomized, double-blind study was conducted at 219 sites in Asia, Europe, Australia, North America, South Africa, and South America from June 6, 2007, to March 27, 2009. Patients aged 45 to 90 years with probable AD, Mini-Mental State Examination score 0 to 20 (moderate to severe impairment), and who were receiving donepezil 10 mg once daily for ≥12 weeks before the start of the study were eligible. Patients (n = 1467) were randomly assigned to receive high-dose donepezil (23 mg once daily) or standard-dose donepezil (10 mg once daily) for 24 weeks. Coprimary effectiveness measures were changes in cognition and global functioning, as assessed using least squares mean changes from baseline (LSM [SE] A) scores (last observation carried forward) on the Severe Impairment Battery (SIB; cognition) and the Clinician's Interview-Based Impression of Change Plus Caregiver Input scale (CIBIC+; global function rating) overall change score (mean [SD]) at week 24. Treatmentemergent adverse events (TEAEs) were assessed using spontaneous patient/caregiver reporting and open-ended questioning; clinical laboratory testing (hematology, biochemistry, and urinalysis panels analyzed by a central laboratory); 12-lead ECG; and physical and neurologic examinations, including vital sign measurements. Results: The effectiveness analyses included 1371 patients (mean age, 73.8 years; 62.8% female; 73.5% white; weight range, 34.0–138.7 kg). A total of 296 of 981 patients (30.2%) withdrew from the donepezil 23-mg/d group; 87 of 486 patients (17.9%) withdrew from the donepezil 10-mg/d group. At study end (week 24), the LSM (SE) Δ in SIB score was significantly greater with donepezil 23 mg/d than with donepezil 10 mg/d (+2.6 [0.58] vs +0.4 [0.66], respectively; difference, 2.2; P < 0.001). The between-treatment difference in CIBIC+ score was nonsignificant (4.23 [1.07] vs 4.29 [1.07]). In post hoc analysis, LSM Δ in SIB score and CIBIC+ treatment effect at end point were greater with donepezil 23 mg/d than 10 mg/d in patients with more advanced AD compared with less impaired patients (SIB, +1.6 [0.78] vs −1.5 [0.88], respectively [ P < 0.001]; CIBIC+, 4.31 [1.09] vs 4.42 [1.10] [ P = 0.028]). TEAEs were reported in 710 of 963 patients (73.7%) who received donepezil 23 mg/d and in 300 of 471 patients (63.7%) who received donepezil 10 mg/d. With donepezil 23 mg/d, mild, moderate, and severe TEAEs were reported in 297 (30.8%), 332 (34.5%), and 81 (8.4%) patients, respectively; with donepezil 10 mg/d, these proportions were 147 (31.2%), 119 (25.3%), and 34 (7.2%). The 3 most common severe AEs reported with the 23-mg/d dose were nausea (9 patients [0.9%] vs 1 [0.2%] with the 10-mg/d dose), dizziness (7 [0.7%] vs 1 [0.2%]), and vomiting (6 [0.6%] vs 0). The most commonly reported TEAEs considered probably related to treatment with the 23-mg/d dose were nausea (59 patients [6.1%] vs 9 [1.9%] with the 10-mg/d dose), vomiting (48 [5.0%] vs 4 [0.8%]), and diarrhea (31 [3.2%] vs 7 [1.5%]).Thirteen deaths were reported during the study or within 30 days of study discontinuation (23 mg/d, 8 patients [0.8%]; 10 mg/d, 5 patients [1.1%]); all were considered unrelated to the study medication. Conclusions: In this study in patients with moderate to severe AD, donepezil 23 mg/d was associated with greater benefits in cognition compared with donepezil 10 mg/d. The between-treatment difference in global functioning was not significant in the overall population. Patients with more advanced AD appeared to benefit from donepezil 23 mg/d on the assessment of global functioning, but this observation requires additional studies for confirmation. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00478205.

Background Verubecestat, a BACE1 inhibitor that reduces Aβ levels in the cerebrospinal fluid of humans, was not effective in a phase 3 trial (EPOCH) of mild-to-moderate AD and was associated with adverse events. To assist in the development of BACE1 inhibitors, we report detailed safety findings from EPOCH. Methods EPOCH was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled 78-week trial evaluating verubecestat 12 mg and 40 mg in participants with mild-to-moderate AD diagnosed clinically. The trial was terminated due to futility close to its scheduled completion. Of 1957 participants who were randomized and took treatment, 652 were assigned to verubecestat 12 mg, 652 to verubecestat 40 mg, and 653 to placebo. Adverse events and relevant laboratory, vital sign, and ECG findings were assessed. Results Verubecestat 12 mg and 40 mg were associated with an increase in the percentage of participants reporting adverse events versus placebo (89 and 92% vs. 82%), although relatively few participants discontinued treatment due to adverse events (8 and 9% vs. 6%). Adverse events that were increased versus placebo included falls and injuries, suicidal ideation, weight loss, sleep disturbance, rash, and hair color change. Most were mild to moderate in severity. Treatment differences in suicidal ideation emerged within the first 3 months but did not appear to increase after 6 months. In contrast, treatment differences in falls and injuries continued to increase over time. Conclusions Verubecestat was associated with increased risk for several types of adverse events. Falls and injuries were notable for progressive increases over time. While the mechanisms underlying the increased adverse events are unclear, they may be due to BACE inhibition and should be considered in future clinical development programs of BACE1 inhibitors. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01739348 , registered on 29 November 2012.

Fibrillar amyloid-β (Aβ) is thought to begin accumulating in the brain many years before the onset of clinical impairment in patients with Alzheimer's disease. By assessing the accumulation of Aβ in people at risk of genetic forms of Alzheimer's disease, we can identify how early preclinical changes start in individuals certain to develop dementia later in life. We sought to characterise the age-related accumulation of Aβ deposition in presenilin 1 (PSEN1) E280A mutation carriers across the spectrum of preclinical disease. Between Aug 1 and Dec 6, 2011, members of the familial Alzheimer's disease Colombian kindred aged 18–60 years were recruited from the Alzheimer's Prevention Initiative's registry at the University of Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia. Cross-sectional assessment using florbetapir PET was done in symptomatic mutation carriers with mild cognitive impairment or mild dementia, asymptomatic carriers, and asymptomatic non-carriers. These assessments were done at the Banner Alzheimer's Institute in Phoenix, AZ, USA. A cortical grey matter mask consisting of six predefined regions.was used to measure mean cortical florbetapir PET binding. Cortical-to-pontine standard-uptake value ratios were used to characterise the cross-sectional accumulation of fibrillar Aβ deposition in carriers and non-carriers with regression analysis and to estimate the trajectories of fibrillar Aβ deposition. We enrolled a cohort of 11 symptomatic individuals, 19 presymptomatic mutation carriers, and 20 asymptomatic non-carriers, ranging in age from 20 to 56 years. There was greater florbetapir binding in asymptomatic PSEN1 E280A mutation carriers than in age matched non-carriers. Fibrillar Aβ began to accumulate in PSEN 1E280A mutation carriers at a mean age of 28·2 years (95% CI 27·3–33·4), about 16 years and 21 years before the predicted median ages at mild cognitive impairment and dementia onset, respectively. 18F florbetapir binding rose steeply over the next 9·4 years and plateaued at a mean age of 37·6 years (95% CI 35·3–40·2), about 6 and 11 years before the expected respective median ages at mild cognitive impairment and dementia onset. Prominent florbetapir binding was seen in the anterior and posterior cingulate, precuneus, and parietotemporal and frontal grey matter, as well as in the basal ganglia. Binding in the basal ganglia was not seen earlier or more prominently than in other regions. These findings contribute to the understanding of preclinical familial Alzheimer's disease and help set the stage for assessment of amyloid-modifying treatments in the prevention of familial Alzheimer's disease. Avid Radiopharmaceuticals, Banner Alzheimer's Foundation, Nomis Foundation, Anonymous Foundation, Forget Me Not Initiative, Colciencias, National Institute on Aging, and the State of Arizona.

The pathological underpinnings of Alzheimer disease (AD) are now known to begin up to two decades before manifestation of clinical disease, and intervention during preclinical AD stages is increasingly recognized as key to therapeutic success. Here, Eric Reiman and colleagues discuss strategies to study changes in the brain and bodily fluids that precede clinical AD, focusing in particular on genetic at-risk individuals, who might be suitable candidates for secondary prevention trials. Researchers have begun to characterize the subtle biological and cognitive processes that precede the clinical onset of Alzheimer disease (AD), and to set the stage for accelerated evaluation of experimental treatments to delay the onset, reduce the risk of, or completely prevent clinical decline. In this Review, we provide an overview of the experimental strategies, and brain imaging and cerebrospinal fluid biomarker measures that are used in early detection and tracking of AD, highlighting at-risk individuals who could be suitable for preclinical monitoring. We discuss how advances in the field have contributed to reconceptualization of AD as a sequence of biological changes that occur during progression from preclinical AD, to mild cognitive impairment and finally dementia, and we review recently proposed research criteria for preclinical AD. Advances in the study of preclinical AD have driven the recognition that efficacy of at least some AD therapies may depend on initiation of treatment before clinical manifestation of disease, leading to a new era of AD prevention research. Key Points The pathogenic cascade of Alzheimer disease (AD) is thought to begin at least one to two decades prior to cognitive impairment Disappointing results of several AD drugs in late-stage trials have suggested the need for early therapeutic intervention, calling for development of biomarkers and sensitive cognitive measures of preclinical disease The best established measurements for detection and tracking of preclinical and clinical AD include MRI, fluorodeoxyglucose PET, amyloid PET, and cerebrospinal fluid measures of amyloid-β 42 , total tau, and phospho-tau Studies of individuals with inherited AD can provide insights into cognitive and biomarker changes that precede clinical manifestation of AD, and are suitable candidates for ongoing monitoring and early-intervention strategies We are entering an era of AD prevention research, with a number of preclinical AD treatment trials in the planning stages or under way for several at-risk, cognitively unimpaired populations

Background Understanding the relationship among changes in Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR), patient outcomes, and probability of progression is crucial for evaluating the long-term benefits of disease-modifying treatments. We examined associations among changes in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) stages and outcomes that are important to patients and their care partners including activities of daily living (ADLs), geriatric depression, neuropsychiatric features, cognitive impairment, and the probabilities of being transitioned to a long-term care facility (i.e., institutionalization). We also estimated the total time spent at each stage and annual transition probabilities in AD. Methods The study included participants with unimpaired cognition, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD, and mild, moderate, and severe AD dementia in the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center (NACC) Uniform Data Set (UDS) database. The associations among change in AD stages and change in relevant outcomes were estimated using linear mixed models with random intercepts. The probability of transitioning to long-term care facilities was modeled using generalized estimating equations. The total length of time spent at AD stages and annual transition probabilities were estimated with multistate Markov models. Results The estimated average time spent in each stage was 3.2 years in MCI due to AD and 2.2, 2.0, and 2.8 years for mild, moderate, and severe AD dementia, respectively. The annual probabilities of progressing from MCI to mild, moderate, and severe AD dementia were 20, 4, and 0.7%, respectively. The incremental change to the next stage of participants with unimpaired cognition, MCI, and mild, moderate, and severe AD dementia (to death) was 3.2, 20, 26.6, 31, and 25.3%, respectively. Changes in ADLs, neuropsychiatric features, and cognitive measures were greatest among participants who transitioned from MCI and mild AD dementia to more advanced stages. Participants with MCI and mild and moderate AD dementia had increasing odds of being transitioned to long-term care facilities over time during the follow-up period. Conclusions The findings demonstrated that participants with early stages AD (MCI or mild dementia) were associated with the largest changes in clinical scale scores. Early detection, diagnosis, and intervention by disease-modifying therapies are required for delaying AD progression. Additionally, estimates of transition probabilities can inform future studies and health economic modeling.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology, including the accumulation of amyloid beta (Aβ) species and tau pathology, begins decades before the onset of cognitive impairment. This long preclinical period provides an opportunity for clinical trials designed to prevent or delay the onset of cognitive impairment due to AD. Under the umbrella of the Alzheimer's Prevention Initiative Generation Program, therapies targeting Aβ, including CNP520 (umibecestat), a β-site-amyloid precursor protein cleaving enzyme-1 (BACE-1) inhibitor, and CAD106, an active Aβ immunotherapy, are in clinical development in preclinical AD. The Alzheimer's Prevention Initiative Generation Program comprises two pivotal (phase 2/3) studies that assess the efficacy and safety of umibecestat and CAD106 in cognitively unimpaired individuals with high risk for developing symptoms of AD based on their age (60–75 years), APOE4 genotype, and, for heterozygotes (APOE ε2/ε4 or ε3/ε4), elevated brain amyloid. Approximately, 3500 individuals will be enrolled in either Generation Study 1 (randomized to cohort 1 [CAD106 injection or placebo, 5:3] or cohort 2 [oral umibecestat 50 mg or placebo, 3:2]) or Generation Study 2 (randomized to oral umibecestat 50 mg and 15 mg, or placebo [2:1:2]). Participants receive treatment for at least 60 months and up to a maximum of 96 months. Primary outcomes include time to event, with event defined as diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment due to AD and/or dementia due to AD, and the Alzheimer's Prevention Initiative preclinical composite cognitive test battery. Secondary endpoints include the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes, Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status total score, Everyday Cognition Scale, biomarkers, and brain imaging. The Generation Program is designed to assess the efficacy, safety, and biomarker effects of the two treatments in individuals at high risk for AD. It may also provide a plausible test of the amyloid hypothesis and further accelerate the evaluation of AD prevention therapies.