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This paper considers univariate online electricity demand forecasting for lead times from a half-hour-ahead to a day-ahead. A time series of demand recorded at half-hourly intervals contains more than one seasonal pattern. A within-day seasonal cycle is apparent from the similarity of the demand profile from one day to the next, and a within-week seasonal cycle is evident when one compares the demand on the corresponding day of adjacent weeks. There is strong appeal in using a forecasting method that is able to capture both seasonalities. The multiplicative seasonal ARIMA model has been adapted for this purpose. In this paper, we adapt the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing formulation so that it can accommodate two seasonalities. We correct for residual autocorrelation using a simple autoregressive model. The forecasts produced by the new double seasonal Holt-Winters method outperform those from traditional Holt-Winters and from a well-specified multiplicative double seasonal ARIMA model.

Anthracnose of chili ( Capsicum spp.) causes major production losses throughout Asia where chili plants are grown. A total of 260 Colletotrichum isolates, associated with necrotic lesions of chili leaves and fruit were collected from chili producing areas of Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Taiwan. Colletotrichum truncatum was the most commonly isolated species from infected chili fruit and was readily identified by its falcate spores and abundant setae in the necrotic lesions. The other isolates consisted of straight conidia (cylindrical and fusiform) which were difficult to differentiate to species based on morphological characters. Taxonomic analysis of these straight conidia isolates based on multi-gene phylogenetic analyses (ITS , gapdh, chs-1, act, tub2, his3, ApMat, gs ) revealed a further seven known Colletotrichum species, C. endophyticum, C. fructicola, C. karsti, C. plurivorum, C. scovillei , C. siamense and C. tropicale . In addition, three novel species are also described as C. javanense, C. makassarense and C. tainanense , associated with anthracnose of chili fruit in West Java (Indonesia); Makassar, South Sulawesi (Indonesia); and Tainan (Taiwan), respectively. Colletotrichum siamense is reported for the first time causing anthracnose of Capsicum annuum in Indonesia and Sri Lanka. This is also the first report of C. fructicola causing anthracnose of chili in Taiwan and Thailand and C. plurivorum in Malaysia and Thailand. Of the species with straight conidia, C. scovillei (acutatum complex), was the most prevalent throughout the surveyed countries, except for Sri Lanka from where this species was not isolated. Colletotrichum siamense (gloeosporioides complex) was also common in Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Pathogenicity tests on chili fruit showed that C. javanense and C. scovillei were highly aggressive, especially when inoculated on non-wounded fruit, compared to all other species. The existence of new, highly aggressive exotic species, such as C. javanense , poses a biosecurity risk to production in countries which do not have adequate quarantine regulations to restrict the entry of exotic pathogens.

Globally, tomato is the second most cultivated vegetable crop next to potato, preferentially grown in temperate climates. Processing tomatoes are generally produced in field conditions, in which soilborne pathogens have serious impacts on tomato yield and quality by causing diseases of the tomato root system. Major processing tomato-producing countries have documented soilborne diseases caused by a variety of pathogens including bacteria, fungi, nematodes, and oomycetes, which are of economic importance and may threaten food security. Recent field surveys in the Australian processing tomato industry showed that plant growth and yield were significantly affected by soilborne pathogens, especially Fusarium oxysporum and Pythium species. Globally, different management methods have been used to control diseases such as the use of resistant tomato cultivars, the application of fungicides, and biological control. Among these methods, biocontrol has received increasing attention due to its high efficiency, target-specificity, sustainability and public acceptance. The application of biocontrol is a mix of different strategies, such as applying antagonistic microorganisms to the field, and using the beneficial metabolites synthesized by these microorganisms. This review provides a broad review of the major soilborne fungal/oomycete pathogens of the field processing tomato industry affecting major global producers, the traditional and biological management practices for the control of the pathogens, and the various strategies of the biological control for tomato soilborne diseases. The advantages and disadvantages of the management strategies are discussed, and highlighted is the importance of biological control in managing the diseases in field processing tomatoes under the pressure of global climate change.

Biomass burning (BB) is a major global source of trace gases and particles. Accurately representing the production and evolution of these emissions is an important goal for atmospheric chemical transport models. We measured a suite of gases and aerosols emitted from an 81 hectare prescribed fire in chaparral fuels on the central coast of California, US on 17 November 2009. We also measured physical and chemical changes that occurred in the isolated downwind plume in the first ~4 h after emission. The measurements were carried out onboard a Twin Otter aircraft outfitted with an airborne Fourier transform infrared spectrometer (AFTIR), aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS), single particle soot photometer (SP2), nephelometer, LiCor CO2 analyzer, a chemiluminescence ozone instrument, and a wing-mounted meteorological probe. Our measurements included: CO2; CO; NOx; NH3; non-methane organic compounds; organic aerosol (OA); inorganic aerosol (nitrate, ammonium, sulfate, and chloride); aerosol light scattering; refractory black carbon (rBC); and ambient temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, and three-dimensional wind velocity. The molar ratio of excess O3 to excess CO in the plume (ΔO3/ΔCO) increased from −5.13 (±1.13) × 10−3 to 10.2 (±2.16) × 10−2 in ~4.5 h following smoke emission. Excess acetic and formic acid (normalized to excess CO) increased by factors of 1.73 ± 0.43 and 7.34 ± 3.03 (respectively) over the same time since emission. Based on the rapid decay of C2H4 we infer an in-plume average OH concentration of 5.27 (±0.97) × 106 molec cm−3, consistent with previous studies showing elevated OH concentrations in biomass burning plumes. Ammonium, nitrate, and sulfate all increased over the course of 4 h. The observed ammonium increase was a factor of 3.90 ± 2.93 in about 4 h, but accounted for just ~36% of the gaseous ammonia lost on a molar basis. Some of the gas phase NH3 loss may have been due to condensation on, or formation of, particles below the AMS detection range. NOx was converted to PAN and particle nitrate with PAN production being about two times greater than production of observable nitrate in the first ~4 h following emission. The excess aerosol light scattering in the plume (normalized to excess CO2) increased by a factor of 2.50 ± 0.74 over 4 h. The increase in light scattering was similar to that observed in an earlier study of a biomass burning plume in Mexico where significant secondary formation of OA closely tracked the increase in scattering. In the California plume, however, ΔOA/ΔCO2 decreased sharply for the first hour and then increased slowly with a net decrease of ~20% over 4 h. The fraction of thickly coated rBC particles increased up to ~85% over the 4 h aging period. Decreasing OA accompanied by increased scattering/particle coating in initial aging may be due to a combination of particle coagulation and evaporation processes. Recondensation of species initially evaporated from the particles may have contributed to the subsequent slow rise in OA. We compare our results to observations from other plume aging studies and suggest that differences in environmental factors such as smoke concentration, oxidant concentration, actinic flux, and RH contribute significantly to the variation in plume evolution observations.

CMIP6 climate models have difficulties representing the strong absorption properties of biomass‐burning aerosols (BBA) over the Southeast Atlantic and the associated direct forcing. This study takes advantage of unique in situ and remote sensing observations to evaluate the vertical profile and chemical composition of BBA, which are key properties for modeling radiative interactions. Over land, CMIP6 models show a sharper vertical decrease in carbonaceous aerosol concentration than observed, indicating insufficient vertical mixing. Over the ocean, most models transport BBA lower, between 1 and 1.5 km, than observed. This could be due to both excessive subsidence and lack of self‐lofting of BBA. In addition, the ratio between black carbon and organic aerosol mass concentrations is underestimated by about 0.1 compared to observations. These biases limit the ability of models to capture the absorption above clouds in this region, which could have implications for the regional radiative and climatic impact of African BBA.

Accurately accounting for new particle formation (NPF) is crucial to our ability to predict aerosol number concentrations in many environments and thus cloud properties, which is in turn vital in simulating radiative transfer and climate. Here we present an analysis of NPF events observed in the Greenland Sea during the summertime as part of the Aerosol-Cloud Coupling And Climate Interactions in the Arctic (ACCACIA) project. While NPF events have been reported in the Arctic before, we were able, for the first time, to detect iodine in the growing particles using an Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) during a persistent event in the region of the coastal sea-ice near Greenland. Given the potency of iodine as a nucleation precursor, the results imply that iodine was responsible for the initial NPF, a phenomenon that has been reported at lower latitudes and associated with molecular iodine emissions from coastal macroalgae. The initial source of iodine in this instance is not clear, but it was associated with air originating approximately 1 day previously over melting coastal sea-ice. These results show that atmospheric models must consider iodine as a source of new particles in addition to established precursors such as sulfur compounds.

Black carbon aerosols (BC) at a London urban site were characterised in both winter- and summertime 2012 during the Clean Air for London (ClearfLo) project. Positive matrix factorisation (PMF) factors of organic aerosol mass spectra measured by a high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-AMS) showed traffic-dominant sources in summer but in winter the influence of additional non-traffic sources became more important, mainly from solid fuel sources (SF). Measurements using a single particle soot photometer (SP2, DMT), showed the traffic-dominant BC exhibited an almost uniform BC core size (Dc) distribution with very thin coating thickness throughout the detectable range of Dc. However, the size distribution of Dc (project average mass median Dc = 149 ± 22 nm in winter, and 120 ± 6 nm in summer) and BC coating thickness varied significantly in winter. A novel methodology was developed to attribute the BC number concentrations and mass abundances from traffic (BCtr) and from SF (BCsf), by using a 2-D histogram of the particle optical properties as a function of BC core size, as measured by the SP2. The BCtr and BCsf showed distinctly different Dc distributions and coating thicknesses, with BCsf displaying larger Dc and larger coating thickness compared to BCtr. BC particles from different sources were also apportioned by applying a multiple linear regression between the total BC mass and each AMS-PMF factor (BC–AMS–PMF method), and also attributed by applying the absorption spectral dependence of carbonaceous aerosols to 7-wavelength Aethalometer measurements (Aethalometer method). Air masses that originated from westerly (W), southeasterly (SE), and easterly (E) sectors showed BCsf fractions that ranged from low to high, and whose mass median Dc values were 137 ± 10 nm, 143 ± 11 nm and 169 ± 29 nm, respectively. The corresponding bulk relative coating thickness of BC (coated particle size/BC core – Dp/Dc) for these same sectors was 1.28 ± 0.07, 1.45 ± 0.16 and 1.65 ± 0.19. For W, SE and E air masses, the number fraction of BCsf ranged from 6 ± 2% to 11 ± 5% to 18 ± 10%, respectively, but importantly the larger BC core sizes lead to an increased fraction of BCsf in terms of mass than number (for W, SE and E air masses, the BCsf mass fractions ranged from 16 ± 6%, 24 ± 10% and 39 ± 14%, respectively). An increased fraction of non-BC particles (particles that did not contain a BC core) was also observed when SF sources were more significant. The BC mass attribution by the SP2 method agreed well with the BC–AMS–PMF multiple linear regression method (BC–AMS–PMF : SP2 ratio = 1.05, r2 = 0.80) over the entire experimental period. Good agreement was found between BCsf attributed with the Aethalometer model and the SP2. However, the assumed absorption Ångström exponent (αwb) had to be changed according to the different air mass sectors to yield the best comparison with the SP2. This could be due to influences of fuel type or burn phase.

Within minutes after emission, complex photochemistry in biomass burning smoke plumes can cause large changes in the concentrations of ozone (O3) and organic aerosol (OA). Being able to understand and simulate this rapid chemical evolution under a wide variety of conditions is a critical part of forecasting the impact of these fires on air quality, atmospheric composition, and climate. Here we use version 2.1 of the Aerosol Simulation Program (ASP) to simulate the evolution of O3 and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) within a young biomass burning smoke plume from the Williams prescribed fire in chaparral, which was sampled over California in November 2009. We demonstrate the use of a method for simultaneously accounting for the impact of the unidentified intermediate volatility, semi-volatile, and extremely low volatility organic compounds (here collectively called \"SVOCs\") on the formation of OA (using the Volatility Basis Set – VBS) and O3 (using the concept of mechanistic reactivity). We show that this method can successfully simulate the observations of O3, OA, NOx, ethylene (C2H4), and OH to within measurement uncertainty using reasonable assumptions about the average chemistry of the unidentified SVOCs. These assumptions were (1) a reaction rate constant with OH of ~ 10-11 cm3 s−1; (2) a significant fraction (up to ~ 50 %) of the RO2 + NO reaction resulted in fragmentation, rather than functionalization, of the parent SVOC; (3) ~ 1.1 molecules of O3 were formed for every molecule of SVOC that reacted; (4) ~ 60 % of the OH that reacted with the unidentified non-methane organic compounds (NMOC) was regenerated as HO2; and (5) that ~ 50 % of the NO that reacted with the SVOC peroxy radicals was lost, presumably to organic nitrate formation. Additional evidence for the fragmentation pathway is provided by the observed rate of formation of acetic acid (CH3COOH), which is consistent with our assumed fragmentation rate. However, the model overestimates peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) formation downwind by about 50 %, suggesting the need for further refinements to the chemistry. This method could provide a way for classifying different smoke plume observations in terms of the average chemistry of their SVOCs, and could be used to study how the chemistry of these compounds (and the O3 and OA they form) varies between plumes.