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Global estimates of the effect of common modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality are largely based on data from separate studies, using different methodologies. The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study overcomes these limitations by using similar methods to prospectively measure the effect of modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality across 21 countries (spanning five continents) grouped by different economic levels. In this multinational, prospective cohort study, we examined associations for 14 potentially modifiable risk factors with mortality and cardiovascular disease in 155 722 participants without a prior history of cardiovascular disease from 21 high-income, middle-income, or low-income countries (HICs, MICs, or LICs). The primary outcomes for this paper were composites of cardiovascular disease events (defined as cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) and mortality. We describe the prevalence, hazard ratios (HRs), and population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for cardiovascular disease and mortality associated with a cluster of behavioural factors (ie, tobacco use, alcohol, diet, physical activity, and sodium intake), metabolic factors (ie, lipids, blood pressure, diabetes, obesity), socioeconomic and psychosocial factors (ie, education, symptoms of depression), grip strength, and household and ambient pollution. Associations between risk factors and the outcomes were established using multivariable Cox frailty models and using PAFs for the entire cohort, and also by countries grouped by income level. Associations are presented as HRs and PAFs with 95% CIs. Between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2016, 155 722 participants were enrolled and followed up for measurement of risk factors. 17 249 (11·1%) participants were from HICs, 102 680 (65·9%) were from MICs, and 35 793 (23·0%) from LICs. Approximately 70% of cardiovascular disease cases and deaths in the overall study population were attributed to modifiable risk factors. Metabolic factors were the predominant risk factors for cardiovascular disease (41·2% of the PAF), with hypertension being the largest (22·3% of the PAF). As a cluster, behavioural risk factors contributed most to deaths (26·3% of the PAF), although the single largest risk factor was a low education level (12·5% of the PAF). Ambient air pollution was associated with 13·9% of the PAF for cardiovascular disease, although different statistical methods were used for this analysis. In MICs and LICs, household air pollution, poor diet, low education, and low grip strength had stronger effects on cardiovascular disease or mortality than in HICs. Most cardiovascular disease cases and deaths can be attributed to a small number of common, modifiable risk factors. While some factors have extensive global effects (eg, hypertension and education), others (eg, household air pollution and poor diet) vary by a country's economic level. Health policies should focus on risk factors that have the greatest effects on averting cardiovascular disease and death globally, with additional emphasis on risk factors of greatest importance in specific groups of countries. Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

To our knowledge, no previous study has prospectively documented the incidence of common diseases and related mortality in high-income countries (HICs), middle-income countries (MICs), and low-income countries (LICs) with standardised approaches. Such information is key to developing global and context-specific health strategies. In our analysis of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, we aimed to evaluate differences in the incidence of common diseases, related hospital admissions, and related mortality in a large contemporary cohort of adults from 21 HICs, MICs, and LICs across five continents by use of standardised approaches. The PURE study is a prospective, population-based cohort study of individuals aged 35–70 years who have been enrolled from 21 countries across five continents. The key outcomes were the incidence of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular diseases, cancers, injuries, respiratory diseases, and hospital admissions, and we calculated the age-standardised and sex-standardised incidence of these events per 1000 person-years. This analysis assesses the incidence of events in 162 534 participants who were enrolled in the first two phases of the PURE core study, between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2016, and who were assessed for a median of 9·5 years (IQR 8·5–10·9). During follow-up, 11 307 (7·0%) participants died, 9329 (5·7%) participants had cardiovascular disease, 5151 (3·2%) participants had a cancer, 4386 (2·7%) participants had injuries requiring hospital admission, 2911 (1·8%) participants had pneumonia, and 1830 (1·1%) participants had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Cardiovascular disease occurred more often in LICs (7·1 cases per 1000 person-years) and in MICs (6·8 cases per 1000 person-years) than in HICs (4·3 cases per 1000 person-years). However, incident cancers, injuries, COPD, and pneumonia were most common in HICs and least common in LICs. Overall mortality rates in LICs (13·3 deaths per 1000 person-years) were double those in MICs (6·9 deaths per 1000 person-years) and four times higher than in HICs (3·4 deaths per 1000 person-years). This pattern of the highest mortality in LICs and the lowest in HICs was observed for all causes of death except cancer, where mortality was similar across country income levels. Cardiovascular disease was the most common cause of deaths overall (40%) but accounted for only 23% of deaths in HICs (vs 41% in MICs and 43% in LICs), despite more cardiovascular disease risk factors (as judged by INTERHEART risk scores) in HICs and the fewest such risk factors in LICs. The ratio of deaths from cardiovascular disease to those from cancer was 0·4 in HICs, 1·3 in MICs, and 3·0 in LICs, and four upper-MICs (Argentina, Chile, Turkey, and Poland) showed ratios similar to the HICs. Rates of first hospital admission and cardiovascular disease medication use were lowest in LICs and highest in HICs. Among adults aged 35–70 years, cardiovascular disease is the major cause of mortality globally. However, in HICs and some upper-MICs, deaths from cancer are now more common than those from cardiovascular disease, indicating a transition in the predominant causes of deaths in middle-age. As cardiovascular disease decreases in many countries, mortality from cancer will probably become the leading cause of death. The high mortality in poorer countries is not related to risk factors, but it might be related to poorer access to health care. Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Some studies, mainly from high-income countries (HICs), report that women receive less care (investigations and treatments) for cardiovascular disease than do men and might have a higher risk of death. However, very few studies systematically report risk factors, use of primary or secondary prevention medications, incidence of cardiovascular disease, or death in populations drawn from the community. Given that most cardiovascular disease occurs in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), there is a need for comprehensive information comparing treatments and outcomes between women and men in HICs, middle-income countries, and low-income countries from community-based population studies. In the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological study (PURE), individuals aged 35–70 years from urban and rural communities in 27 countries were considered for inclusion. We recorded information on participants' sociodemographic characteristics, risk factors, medication use, cardiac investigations, and interventions. 168 490 participants who enrolled in the first two of the three phases of PURE were followed up prospectively for incident cardiovascular disease and death. From Jan 6, 2005 to May 6, 2019, 202 072 individuals were recruited to the study. The mean age of women included in the study was 50·8 (SD 9·9) years compared with 51·7 (10) years for men. Participants were followed up for a median of 9·5 (IQR 8·5–10·9) years. Women had a lower cardiovascular disease risk factor burden using two different risk scores (INTERHEART and Framingham). Primary prevention strategies, such as adoption of several healthy lifestyle behaviours and use of proven medicines, were more frequent in women than men. Incidence of cardiovascular disease (4·1 [95% CI 4·0–4·2] for women vs 6·4 [6·2–6·6] for men per 1000 person-years; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0·75 [95% CI 0·72–0·79]) and all-cause death (4·5 [95% CI 4·4–4·7] for women vs 7·4 [7·2–7·7] for men per 1000 person-years; aHR 0·62 [95% CI 0·60–0·65]) were also lower in women. By contrast, secondary prevention treatments, cardiac investigations, and coronary revascularisation were less frequent in women than men with coronary artery disease in all groups of countries. Despite this, women had lower risk of recurrent cardiovascular disease events (20·0 [95% CI 18·2–21·7] versus 27·7 [95% CI 25·6–29·8] per 1000 person-years in men, adjusted hazard ratio 0·73 [95% CI 0·64-0·83]) and women had lower 30-day mortality after a new cardiovascular disease event compared with men (22% in women versus 28% in men; p<0·0001). Differences between women and men in treatments and outcomes were more marked in LMICs with little differences in HICs in those with or without previous cardiovascular disease. Treatments for cardiovascular disease are more common in women than men in primary prevention, but the reverse is seen in secondary prevention. However, consistently better outcomes are observed in women than in men, both in those with and without previous cardiovascular disease. Improving cardiovascular disease prevention and treatment, especially in LMICs, should be vigorously pursued in both women and men. Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Reduced muscular strength, as measured by grip strength, has been associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Grip strength is appealing as a simple, quick, and inexpensive means of stratifying an individual's risk of cardiovascular death. However, the prognostic value of grip strength with respect to the number and range of populations and confounders is unknown. The aim of this study was to assess the independent prognostic importance of grip strength measurement in socioculturally and economically diverse countries. The Prospective Urban-Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large, longitudinal population study done in 17 countries of varying incomes and sociocultural settings. We enrolled an unbiased sample of households, which were eligible if at least one household member was aged 35–70 years and if household members intended to stay at that address for another 4 years. Participants were assessed for grip strength, measured using a Jamar dynamometer. During a median follow-up of 4·0 years (IQR 2·9–5·1), we assessed all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, non-cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, diabetes, cancer, pneumonia, hospital admission for pneumonia or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), hospital admission for any respiratory disease (including COPD, asthma, tuberculosis, and pneumonia), injury due to fall, and fracture. Study outcomes were adjudicated using source documents by a local investigator, and a subset were adjudicated centrally. Between January, 2003, and December, 2009, a total of 142 861 participants were enrolled in the PURE study, of whom 139 691 with known vital status were included in the analysis. During a median follow-up of 4·0 years (IQR 2·9–5·1), 3379 (2%) of 139 691 participants died. After adjustment, the association between grip strength and each outcome, with the exceptions of cancer and hospital admission due to respiratory illness, was similar across country-income strata. Grip strength was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio per 5 kg reduction in grip strength 1·16, 95% CI 1·13–1·20; p<0·0001), cardiovascular mortality (1·17, 1·11–1·24; p<0·0001), non-cardiovascular mortality (1·17, 1·12–1·21; p<0·0001), myocardial infarction (1·07, 1·02–1·11; p=0·002), and stroke (1·09, 1·05–1·15; p<0·0001). Grip strength was a stronger predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality than systolic blood pressure. We found no significant association between grip strength and incident diabetes, risk of hospital admission for pneumonia or COPD, injury from fall, or fracture. In high-income countries, the risk of cancer and grip strength were positively associated (0·916, 0·880–0·953; p<0·0001), but this association was not found in middle-income and low-income countries. This study suggests that measurement of grip strength is a simple, inexpensive risk-stratifying method for all-cause death, cardiovascular death, and cardiovascular disease. Further research is needed to identify determinants of muscular strength and to test whether improvement in strength reduces mortality and cardiovascular disease. Full funding sources listed at end of paper (see Acknowledgments).

Studies have challenged the appropriateness of accepted blood pressure targets. We hypothesised that different levels of low blood pressure are associated with benefit for some, but harm for other outcomes. In this analysis, we assessed the previously reported outcome data from high-risk patients aged 55 years or older with a history of cardiovascular disease, 70% of whom had hypertension, from the ONTARGET and TRANSCEND trials investigating ramipril, telmisartan, and their combination, with a median follow-up of 56 months. Detailed descriptions of randomisation and intervention have already been reported. We analysed the associations between mean blood pressure achieved on treatment; prerandomisation baseline blood pressure; or time-updated blood pressure (last on treatment value before an event) on the composite outcome of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and hospital admission for heart failure; the components of the composite outcome; and all-cause death. Analysis was done by Cox regression analysis, ANOVA, and χ2. These trials were registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00153101. Recruitment for ONTARGET took place between Dec 1, 2001, and July 31, 2008. TRANSCEND took place between Nov 1, 2001, and May 30, 2004. 30 937 patients were recruited from 733 centres in 40 countries and followed up for a median of 56 months. In ONTARGET, 25 127 patients known to be tolerant to angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE)-inhibitors were randomly assigned after a run-in period to oral ramipril 10 mg/day (n=8407), telmisartan 80 mg/day (n=8386), or the combination of both (n=8334). In TRANSCEND, 5810 patients who were intolerant to ACE-inhibitors were randomly assigned to oral telmisartan 80 mg/day (n=2903) or placebo (n=2907). Baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) 140 mm Hg or higher was associated with greater incidence of all outcomes compared with 120 mm Hg to less than 140 mm Hg. By contrast, a baseline diastolic blood pressure (DBP) less than 70 mm Hg was associated with the highest risk for most outcomes compared with all DBP categories 70 mm Hg or more. In 4052 patients with SBP less than 120 mm Hg on treatment, the risk of the composite cardiovascular outcome (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1·14, 95% CI 1·03–1·26), cardiovascular death (1·29, 1·12–1·49), and all deaths (1·28, 1·15–1·42) were increased compared with those in whom SBP was 120–140 mm Hg during treatment (HR 1 for all outcomes, n=16099). No harm or benefit was observed for myocardial infarction, stroke, or hospital admission for heart failure. Mean achieved SBP more accurately predicted outcomes than baseline or time-updated SBP, and was associated with the lowest risk at approximately 130 mm Hg, and at 110–120 mm Hg risk increased for the combined outcome, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death except stroke. A mean DBP less than 70 mm Hg (n=5352) during treatment was associated with greater risk of the composite primary outcome (HR 1·31, 95% CI 1·20–1·42), myocardial infarction (1·55, 1·33–1·80), hospital admission for heart failure (1·59, 1·36–1·86) and all-cause death (1·16, 1·06–1·28) than a DBP 70–80 mm Hg (14 305). A pretreatment and mean on-treatment DBP of about 75 mm Hg was associated with the lowest risk. Mean achieved SBP less than 120 mm Hg during treatment was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular outcomes except for myocardial infarction and stroke. Similar patterns were observed for DBP less than 70 mm Hg, plus increased risk for myocardial infarction and hospital admission for heart failure. Very low blood pressure achieved on treatment was associated with increased risks of several cardiovascular disease events. These data suggest that the lowest blood pressure possible is not necessarily the optimal target for high-risk patients, although it is not possible to rule out some effect of reverse causality. Boehringer Ingelheim.

Although most cardiovascular disease occurs in low-income and middle-income countries, little is known about the use of effective secondary prevention medications in these communities. We aimed to assess use of proven effective secondary preventive drugs (antiplatelet drugs, β blockers, angiotensin-converting-enzyme [ACE] inhibitors or angiotensin-receptor blockers [ARBs], and statins) in individuals with a history of coronary heart disease or stroke. In the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological (PURE) study, we recruited individuals aged 35–70 years from rural and urban communities in countries at various stages of economic development. We assessed rates of previous cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease or stroke) and use of proven effective secondary preventive drugs and blood-pressure-lowering drugs with standardised questionnaires, which were completed by telephone interviews, household visits, or on patient's presentation to clinics. We report estimates of drug use at national, community, and individual levels. We enrolled 153 996 adults from 628 urban and rural communities in countries with incomes classified as high (three countries), upper-middle (seven), lower-middle (three), or low (four) between January, 2003, and December, 2009. 5650 participants had a self-reported coronary heart disease event (median 5·0 years previously [IQR 2·0–10·0]) and 2292 had stroke (4·0 years previously [2·0–8·0]). Overall, few individuals with cardiovascular disease took antiplatelet drugs (25·3%), β blockers (17·4%), ACE inhibitors or ARBs (19·5%), or statins (14·6%). Use was highest in high-income countries (antiplatelet drugs 62·0%, β blockers 40·0%, ACE inhibitors or ARBs 49·8%, and statins 66·5%), lowest in low-income countries (8·8%, 9·7%, 5·2%, and 3·3%, respectively), and decreased in line with reduction of country economic status (p trend<0·0001 for every drug type). Fewest patients received no drugs in high-income countries (11·2%), compared with 45·1% in upper middle-income countries, 69·3% in lower middle-income countries, and 80·2% in low-income countries. Drug use was higher in urban than rural areas (antiplatelet drugs 28·7% urban vs 21·3% rural, β blockers 23·5% vs 15·6%, ACE inhibitors or ARBs 22·8% vs 15·5%, and statins 19·9% vs 11·6%; all p<0·0001), with greatest variation in poorest countries (p interaction<0·0001 for urban vs rural differences by country economic status). Country-level factors (eg, economic status) affected rates of drug use more than did individual-level factors (eg, age, sex, education, smoking status, body-mass index, and hypertension and diabetes statuses). Because use of secondary prevention medications is low worldwide—especially in low-income countries and rural areas—systematic approaches are needed to improve the long-term use of basic, inexpensive, and effective drugs. Full funding sources listed at end of paper (see Acknowledgments).

A standardized data workflow is described for large-scale serum metabolomic studies using multisegment injection-capillary electrophoresis-mass spectrometry. Multiplexed separations increase throughput (<4 min/sample) for quantitative determination of 66 polar/ionic metabolites in serum filtrates consistently detected (coefficient of variance (CV) <30%) with high frequency (>75%) from a multi-ethnic cohort of pregnant women ( n = 1,004). We outline a validated protocol implemented in four batches over a 7-month period that includes details on preventive maintenance, sample workup, data preprocessing and metabolite authentication. We achieve stringent quality control (QC) and robust batch correction of long-term signal drift with good mutual agreement for a wide range of metabolites, including serum glucose as compared to a clinical chemistry analyzer (mean bias = 11%, n = 668). Control charts for a recovery standard (mean CV = 12%, n = 2,412) and serum metabolites in QC samples (median CV = 13%, n = 202) demonstrate acceptable intermediate precision with a median intraclass coefficient of 0.87. We also report reference intervals for 53 serum metabolites from a diverse population of women in their second trimester of pregnancy. A standardized protocol and data workflow for high-throughput analysis of the maternal serum metabolome is outlined. It uses multisegment injection–capillary electrophoresis–mass spectrometry and is applied to a multi-ethnic cohort of pregnant women.

Alcohol consumption is proposed to be the third most important modifiable risk factor for death and disability. However, alcohol consumption has been associated with both benefits and harms, and previous studies were mostly done in high-income countries. We investigated associations between alcohol consumption and outcomes in a prospective cohort of countries at different economic levels in five continents. We included information from 12 countries participating in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological (PURE) study, a prospective cohort study of individuals aged 35–70 years. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to study associations with mortality (n=2723), cardiovascular disease (n=2742), myocardial infarction (n=979), stroke (n=817), alcohol-related cancer (n=764), injury (n=824), admission to hospital (n=8786), and for a composite of these outcomes (n=11 963). We included 114 970 adults, of whom 12 904 (11%) were from high-income countries (HICs), 24 408 (21%) were from upper-middle-income countries (UMICs), 48 845 (43%) were from lower-middle-income countries (LMICs), and 28 813 (25%) were from low-income countries (LICs). Median follow-up was 4·3 years (IQR 3·0–6·0). Current drinking was reported by 36 030 (31%) individuals, and was associated with reduced myocardial infarction (hazard ratio [HR] 0·76 [95% CI 0·63–0·93]), but increased alcohol-related cancers (HR 1·51 [1·22–1·89]) and injury (HR 1·29 [1·04–1·61]). High intake was associated with increased mortality (HR 1·31 [1·04–1·66]). Compared with never drinkers, we identified significantly reduced hazards for the composite outcome for current drinkers in HICs and UMICs (HR 0·84 [0·77–0·92]), but not in LMICs and LICs, for which we identified no reductions in this outcome (HR 1·07 [0·95–1·21]; pinteraction<0·0001). Current alcohol consumption had differing associations by clinical outcome, and differing associations by income region. However, we identified sufficient commonalities to support global health strategies and national initiatives to reduce harmful alcohol use. Population Health Research Institute, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario, AstraZeneca (Canada), Sanofi-Aventis (France and Canada), Boehringer Ingelheim (Germany and Canada), Servier, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, King Pharma, and national or local organisations in participating countries.

Patients are often advised to reduce sodium and potassium intake, but supporting evidence is limited. To help provide such evidence we estimated 24h urinary sodium and potassium excretion in 28,879 participants at high cardiovascular risk who were followed for a mean of 4.5 years in the ONTARGET and TRANSCEND trials. The primary outcome was eGFR decline of 30% or more or chronic dialysis. Secondary outcomes were eGFR decline of 40% or more or chronic dialysis, doubling of serum creatinine or chronic dialysis, an over 5%/year loss of eGFR, progression of albuminuria, and hyperkalemia. Multinomial logit regression with multivariable fractional polynomials, adjusted for confounders, determined the association between urinary sodium and potassium excretion and renal outcomes, with death as a competing risk. The primary outcome occurred in 2,052 (7.6%) patients. There was no significant association between sodium and any renal outcome (primary outcome odds ratio 0.99; 95% CI 0.89–1.09 for highest [median 6.2g/day] vs. lowest third [median 3.3g/day]). Higher potassium was associated with lower odds of all renal outcomes (primary outcome odds ratio 0.74; 95% CI 0.67–0.82 for highest [median 2.7g/day] vs. lowest third [median 1.7g/day], except hyperkalemia nonsignificant. Thus, urinary potassium, but not sodium, excretion predicted clinically important renal outcomes. Our findings do not support routine low sodium and potassium diets for prevention of renal outcomes in people with vascular disease with or without chronic kidney disease.

Background The measurement of handgrip strength (HGS) has prognostic value with respect to all‐cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and cardiovascular disease, and is an important part of the evaluation of frailty. Published reference ranges for HGS are mostly derived from Caucasian populations in high‐income countries. There is a paucity of information on normative HGS values in non‐Caucasian populations from low‐ or middle‐income countries. The objective of this study was to develop reference HGS ranges for healthy adults from a broad range of ethnicities and socioeconomically diverse geographic regions. Methods HGS was measured using a Jamar dynamometer in 125,462 healthy adults aged 35‐70 years from 21 countries in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. Results HGS values differed among individuals from different geographic regions. HGS values were highest among those from Europe/North America, lowest among those from South Asia, South East Asia and Africa, and intermediate among those from China, South America, and the Middle East. Reference ranges stratified by geographic region, age, and sex are presented. These ranges varied from a median (25th–75th percentile) 50 kg (43–56 kg) in men <40 years from Europe/North America to 18 kg (14–20 kg) in women >60 years from South East Asia. Reference ranges by ethnicity and body‐mass index are also reported. Conclusions Individual HGS measurements should be interpreted using region/ethnic‐specific reference ranges.