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The paper considers the determinants of exchange rate movements among sub-Saharan countries that have flexible exchange rate regimes. The determinants are based on the law of one price and interest parity conditions. Results indicate that the exchange rates have responded significantly to changes in the US Treasury bill rate and to the EMBI spread in recent years. The effects are more important for countries with open capital accounts. On the other hand the paper does not provide any support for the interest rate parity theory because domestic interest rates have no bearing on exchange rate movements.

This paper introduces a methodology for assessing external balance in countries with large stocks of non-renewable resources based on oil stock data, and applies it to selected oil producing countries. The methodology uses a stock approach (instead of the more traditional flow approach) to estimate the equilibrium non-oil current account consistent with optimal consumption smoothing. One of the benefits of the stock approach is that geological data for oil reserves can be used to estimate oil wealth; however, the methodology makes the estimated non-oil current account norm very sensitive to oil price projections. Based on an oil price about US$70 per barrel prevailing in the summer of 2007, the baseline estimates indicate that the non-oil current accounts for most of the countries in the sample are broadly in equilibrium. By the same token, using oil price projections as of the summer of 2008 implies large disparities between the equilibrium non-oil current account position and the medium term forecast for all countries in the sample except for Malaysia.

This paper evaluates whether debt relief and grants can boost social expenditures in lowincome countries. It finds that declines in debt-service help raise social expenditures, but no relationship between grants and social expenditures. Moreover, since the mid-1980s, lowincome countries have managed to fully insulate social expenditures from the effects of budgetary tightening. The magnitude of the impact of these effects on social expenditures, however, is dwarfed by the resources needed to enable these countries to reach the Millennium Development Goals.

Prior actions are measures that need to be implemented prior to Board approval of an IMFsupported program. This paper examines whether such prior actions can signal a willingness to implement reforms, especially when the member's track record is weak. We find some support for this signaling role, particularly for programs supported by the General Resources Account (GRA). Controlling for the member's previous track record, prior actions are associated with greater compliance with other structural conditions, suggesting their possible use as a screening device. Moreover, prior actions set at program approval serve as a useful screening device and strengthen the macroeconomic targets set out in the IMF-supported program. The results also reveal a demonstrable screening effect on growth over the medium term, since the growth impact of the ratio of prior actions at the outset versus the rest of the program is significantly positive while the total number of prior actions is not statistically significant.

This paper applies the Permanent Income Model to the non-oil current accounts of the major oil exporters to assess the extent to which national consumption decisions in these countries are made on the basis of permanent versus current income. A test of whether the return on oil wealth and oil balance coefficients sum to unity is accepted for all specifications that adjust the return on wealth for future population changes. For oil-exporting countries outside Africa, around half of the fluctuations in the private sector non-oil balance are driven by considerations of changes in permanent income (the return on oil wealth) rather than current income. By contrast, for the public sector and African countries permanent income has little or no effect.