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IntroductionThe emergence of the novel respiratory SARS-CoV-2 and subsequent COVID-19 pandemic have required rapid assimilation of population-level data to understand and control the spread of infection in the general and vulnerable populations. Rapid analyses are needed to inform policy development and target interventions to at-risk groups to prevent serious health outcomes. We aim to provide an accessible research platform to determine demographic, socioeconomic and clinical risk factors for infection, morbidity and mortality of COVID-19, to measure the impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilisation and long-term health, and to enable the evaluation of natural experiments of policy interventions.Methods and analysisTwo privacy-protecting population-level cohorts have been created and derived from multisourced demographic and healthcare data. The C20 cohort consists of 3.2 million people in Wales on the 1 January 2020 with follow-up until 31 May 2020. The complete cohort dataset will be updated monthly with some individual datasets available daily. The C16 cohort consists of 3 million people in Wales on the 1 January 2016 with follow-up to 31 December 2019. C16 is designed as a counterfactual cohort to provide contextual comparative population data on disease, health service utilisation and mortality. Study outcomes will: (a) characterise the epidemiology of COVID-19, (b) assess socioeconomic and demographic influences on infection and outcomes, (c) measure the impact of COVID-19 on short -term and longer-term population outcomes and (d) undertake studies on the transmission and spatial spread of infection.Ethics and disseminationThe Secure Anonymised Information Linkage-independent Information Governance Review Panel has approved this study. The study findings will be presented to policy groups, public meetings, national and international conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals.

Major sporting events may influence attendance levels at hospital emergency departments (ED). Previous research has focussed on the impact of single games, or wins/losses for specific teams/countries, limiting wider generalisations. Here we explore the impact of the Euro 2016 football championships on ED attendances across four participating nations (England, France, Northern Ireland, Wales), using a single methodology. Match days were found to have no significant impact upon daily ED attendances levels. Focussing upon hourly attendances, ED attendances across all countries in the four hour pre-match period were statistically significantly lower than would be expected (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94-0.99) and further reduced during matches (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.97). In the 4 hour post-match period there was no significant increase in attendances (OR 1.01, 95% CI 0.99-1.04). However, these impacts were highly variable between individual matches: for example in the 4 hour period following the final, involving France, the number of ED attendances in France increased significantly (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.13-1.42). Overall our results indicate relatively small impacts of major sporting events upon ED attendances. The heterogeneity observed makes it difficult for health providers to predict how major sporting events may affect ED attendances but supports the future development of compatible systems in different countries to support cross-border public health surveillance.

ObjectivesTo quantify population health risks for domiciliary care workers (DCWs) in Wales, UK, working during the COVID-19 pandemic.DesignA population-level retrospective study linking occupational registration data to anonymised electronic health records maintained by the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in a privacy-protecting trusted research environment.SettingRegistered DCW population in Wales.ParticipantsRecords for all linked DCWs from 1 March 2020 to 30 November 2021.Primary and secondary outcome measuresOur primary outcome was confirmed COVID-19 infection; secondary outcomes included contacts for suspected COVID-19, mental health including self-harm, fit notes, respiratory infections not necessarily recorded as COVID-19, deaths involving COVID-19 and all-cause mortality.ResultsConfirmed and suspected COVID-19 infection rates increased over the study period to 24% by 30 November 2021. Confirmed COVID-19 varied by sex (males: 19% vs females: 24%) and age (>55 years: 19% vs <35 years: 26%) and were higher for care workers employed by local authority social services departments compared with the private sector (27% and 23%, respectively). 34% of DCWs required support for a mental health condition, with mental health-related prescribing increasing in frequency when compared with the prepandemic period. Events for self-harm increased from 0.2% to 0.4% over the study period as did the issuing of fit notes. There was no evidence to suggest a miscoding of COVID-19 infection with non-COVID-19 respiratory conditions. COVID-19-related and all-cause mortality were no greater than for the general population aged 15–64 years in Wales (0.1% and 0.034%, respectively). A comparable DCW workforce in Scotland and England would result in a comparable rate of COVID-19 infection, while the younger workforce in Northern Ireland may result in a greater infection rate.ConclusionsWhile initial concerns about excess mortality are alleviated, the substantial pre-existing and increased mental health burden for DCWs will require investment to provide long-term support to the sector’s workforce.

ObjectiveTo identify ethnic differences in proportion positive for SARS-CoV-2, and proportion hospitalised, proportion admitted to intensive care and proportion died in hospital with COVID-19 during the first epidemic wave in Wales.DesignDescriptive analysis of 76 503 SARS-CoV-2 tests carried out in Wales to 31 May 2020. Cohort study of 4046 individuals hospitalised with confirmed COVID-19 between 1 March and 31 May. In both analyses, ethnicity was assigned using a name-based classifier.SettingWales (UK).Primary and secondary outcomesAdmission to an intensive care unit following hospitalisation with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test. Death within 28 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test.ResultsUsing a name-based ethnicity classifier, we found a higher proportion of black, Asian and ethnic minority people tested for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR tested positive, compared with those classified as white. Hospitalised black, Asian and minority ethnic cases were younger (median age 53 compared with 76 years; p<0.01) and more likely to be admitted to intensive care. Bangladeshi (adjusted OR (aOR): 9.80, 95% CI 1.21 to 79.40) and ‘white – other than British or Irish’ (aOR: 1.99, 95% CI 1.15 to 3.44) ethnic groups were most likely to be admitted to intensive care unit. In Wales, older age (aOR for over 70 years: 10.29, 95% CI 6.78 to 15.64) and male gender (aOR: 1.38, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.59), but not ethnicity, were associated with death in hospitalised patients.ConclusionsThis study adds to the growing evidence that ethnic minorities are disproportionately affected by COVID-19. During the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Wales, although ethnic minority populations were less likely to be tested and less likely to be hospitalised, those that did attend hospital were younger and more likely to be admitted to intensive care. Primary, secondary and tertiary COVID-19 prevention should target ethnic minority communities in Wales.

Background. Campylobacter species is a leading cause of bacterial gastroenteritis worldwide. Quinolone resistance has emerged as an increasing problem among persons with Campylobacter infection over the past decade, but the clinical consequences are unclear. Methods. A case-comparison study of patients infected with ciprofloxacin-resistant or ciprofloxacin-susceptible Campylobacter species was conducted in Wales during the period 2003–2004. Campylobacter isolates were classified as resistant or susceptible to ciprofloxacin on the basis of standardized disk diffusion methods. Participants were interviewed by telephone at the time of illness, 3 months later, and 6 months later to compare disease severity, duration of illness, and medium-term clinical outcomes. Results. There was no difference between 145 persons with ciprofloxacin-resistant infection and 411 with ciprofloxacin-susceptible infection with regard to the severity or duration of acute illness. Mean duration of diarrhea was similar in patients with ciprofloxacin-resistant versus ciprofloxacin-susceptible infection (8.2 vs. 8.6 days; P=.57) and did not alter significantly after adjustment for potential covariates, including age, underlying disease, foreign travel, use of antidiarrheal medication, and use of antimicrobials in a multiple linear regression model. There was no difference between case patients and comparison patients in the frequency of reported symptoms or in general practitioner consultation rates at either the 3-month or the 6-month follow-up interview. Conclusions. In this study, there was no evidence of more-severe or prolonged illness in participants with quinolone-resistant Campylobacter infection, nor was there evidence of any adverse medium-term consequences. This suggests that the clinical significance of quinolone resistance in Campylobacter infection may have been overestimated.

ObjectiveTo investigate factors associated with variations in diagnoses of primary, secondary and early latent syphilis in England and Wales.MethodsData were derived from two sources: diagnoses made in genitourinary medicine clinics reported on form KC60, and information collected through National Enhanced Syphilis Surveillance (NESS). Multinomial regression modelling was used for data analysis.ResultsBetween 1999 and 2008, 12 021 NESS reports were received, 54% of KC60 reports. The dominant profile of the epidemic was one of white men who have sex with men aged 35–44, often co-infected with HIV, centred in larger cities. During this period, the proportion of primary cases increased over time, while the proportion of secondary cases fell. Primary cases exceeded secondary cases by 2004. The proportion of early latent cases remained relatively stable over time and tended to be lower than that of primary and secondary infection. Patients who attended because they had symptoms of infection, had been identified through partner notification, were HIV positive, and were UK born were more likely to present with primary or secondary infection than with early latent infection. A higher proportion of early latent cases were seen among patients who were Asian, had contacted sexual partners through saunas, bars and the internet, had untraceable partners, and had acquired infection in Manchester.ConclusionsThe continuing syphilis epidemic indicates that control has only been partially effective, with ongoing transmission being sustained. Intensive and targeted efforts delivered locally are required to interrupt further transmission.

New approaches are urgently required to address increasing rates of gonorrhoea and the emergence and global spread of antibiotic-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae. We used whole-genome sequencing to study transmission and track resistance in N gonorrhoeae isolates. We did whole-genome sequencing of isolates obtained from samples collected from patients attending sexual health services in Brighton, UK, between Jan 1, 2011, and March 9, 2015. We also included isolates from other UK locations, historical isolates from Brighton, and previous data from a US study. Samples from symptomatic patients and asymptomatic sexual health screening underwent nucleic acid amplification testing; positive samples and all samples from symptomatic patients were cultured for N gonorrhoeae, and resulting isolates were whole-genome sequenced. Cefixime susceptibility testing was done in selected isolates by agar incorporation, and we used sequence data to determine multi-antigen sequence types and penA genotypes. We derived a transmission nomogram to determine the plausibility of direct or indirect transmission between any two cases depending on the time between samples: estimated mutation rates, plus diversity noted within patients across anatomical sites and probable transmission pairs, were used to fit a coalescent model to determine the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms expected. 1407 (98%) of 1437 Brighton isolates between Jan 1, 2011, and March 9, 2015 were successfully sequenced. We identified 1061 infections from 907 patients. 281 (26%) of these infections were indistinguishable (ie, differed by zero single nucleotide polymorphisms) from one or more previous cases, and 786 (74%) had evidence of a sampled direct or indirect Brighton source. We observed multiple related samples across geographical locations. Of 1273 infections in Brighton (including historical data), 225 (18%) were linked to another case elsewhere in the UK, and 115 (9%) to a case in the USA. Four lineages initially identified in Brighton could be linked to 70 USA sequences, including 61 from a lineage carrying the mosaic penA XXXIV allele, which is associated with reduced cefixime susceptibility. We present a whole-genome-sequencing-based tool for genomic contact tracing of N gonorrhoeae and demonstrate local, national, and international transmission. Whole-genome sequencing can be applied across geographical boundaries to investigate gonorrhoea transmission and to track antimicrobial resistance. Oxford National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit and Biomedical Research Centre.

Objectives After a trend of increasing incidence of gonorrhoea in the 1990s, by 2004 the incidence was declining in England, but continuing to increase in Wales. This prompted an investigation of the epidemiology of gonorrhoea in Wales to inform future prevention and control measures. Methods As an extension to Gonococcal Resistance to Antimicrobials Surveillance Programme, between May 2005 and September 2006, 540 consecutive gonococcal isolates were collected from three microbiology laboratories in South Wales. Isolates were typed using Neisseria gonorrhoeae Multi Antigen Sequence Typing tested for susceptibility to therapeutic agents and demographic and behavioural data were collected retrospectively from patient notes. Results 163 sequence types (STs) were identified in 475 N gonorrhoeae isolates from 502 patient episodes. The most frequently observed STs (>20 isolates) were: 2, 752, 471, 249 and 8, all of which were susceptible to the antimicrobial agents tested. A significant association between ST and sexual orientation was identified, the most frequently observed STs occurring in young (median age <25 years) heterosexuals. STs 147, 4, 1634 and 64 predominated in men who have sex with men. Conclusions We confirm the existence of common STs across the UK, as well as identify a number of types that were novel to Wales. Discrete sexual networks were identified, the most localised being in young heterosexuals. Molecular typing provides a method for identifying local clusters of gonorrhoea, and could assist in the implementation and evaluation of targeted interventions.

Between 21 November and 22 December 2020, a SARS-CoV-2 community testing pilot took place in the South Wales Valleys. We conducted a case-control study in adults taking part in the pilot using an anonymous online questionnaire. Social, demographic and behavioural factors were compared in people with a positive lateral flow test (cases) and a sample of negatives (controls). A total of 199 cases and 2621 controls completed a questionnaire (response rates: 27.1 and 37.6% respectively). Following adjustment, cases were more likely to work in the hospitality sector (aOR 3.39, 95% CI 1.43–8.03), social care (aOR 2.63, 1.22–5.67) or healthcare (aOR 2.31, 1.29–4.13), live with someone self-isolating due to contact with a case (aOR 3.07, 2.03–4.62), visit a pub (aOR 2.87, 1.11–7.37) and smoke or vape (aOR 1.54, 1.02–2.32). In this community, and at this point in the epidemic, reducing transmission from a household contact who is self-isolating would have the biggest public health impact (population-attributable fraction: 0.2). As restrictions on social mixing are relaxed, hospitality venues will become of greater public health importance, and those working in this sector should be adequately protected. Smoking or vaping may be an important modifiable risk factor.

Prisons are susceptible to outbreaks. Control measures focusing on isolation and cohorting negatively affect wellbeing. We present an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a large male prison in Wales, UK, October 2020 to April 2021, and discuss control measures. We gathered case-information, including demographics, staff-residence postcode, resident cell number, work areas/dates, test results, staff interview dates/notes and resident prison-transfer dates. Epidemiological curves were mapped by prison location. Control measures included isolation (exclusion from work or cell-isolation), cohorting (new admissions and work-area groups), asymptomatic testing (case-finding), removal of communal dining and movement restrictions. Facemask use and enhanced hygiene were already in place. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and interviews determined the genetic relationship between cases plausibility of transmission. Of 453 cases, 53% (n = 242) were staff, most aged 25–34 years (11.5% females, 27.15% males) and symptomatic (64%). Crude attack-rate was higher in staff (29%, 95% CI 26–64%) than in residents (12%, 95% CI 9–15%). Whole-genome sequencing can help differentiate multiple introductions from person-to-person transmission in prisons. It should be introduced alongside asymptomatic testing as soon as possible to control prison outbreaks. Timely epidemiological investigation, including data visualisation, allowed dynamic risk assessment and proportionate control measures, minimising the reduction in resident welfare.