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شكرا لأنك تأخرت : دليل متفائل للازدهار في حقبة ملتهبة بالأحداث
يشرح فريدمان في كتابه محاضرته الحركات التكوينية التي تعيد تشكيل العالم اليوم ويوضح كيف تستفيد منها لأقصى حد والنظرية التي يقدمها فريدمان تتمثل في أنه لكي تفهم القرن الحادي والعشرين يتعين عليك أن تفهم أن القوى الثلاث العظمى التي تسيطر على كوكبنا وهي قانون مور التكنولوجيا والسوق العولمة والطبيعة الأم التغيير المناخي وفقدان التنوع البيولوجي وتتسارع جميعها في وقت واحد محولة مكان العمل والسياسات والجغرافيا السياسية والأخلاق والمجتمع فهناك قدر هائل من الطاقة يعيد تشكيل كل شيء بداية من طريقة إشارتنا لسيارة الأجرة إلى مصير الأمم وأكثر علاقاتنا حميمية.
Book
Marine heatwaves under global warming
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of extreme warm sea surface temperature that persist for days to months
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and can extend up to thousands of kilometres
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. Some of the recently observed marine heatwaves revealed the high vulnerability of marine ecosystems
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–
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and fisheries
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–
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to such extreme climate events. Yet our knowledge about past occurrences
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and the future progression of MHWs is very limited. Here we use satellite observations and a suite of Earth system model simulations to show that MHWs have already become longer-lasting and more frequent, extensive and intense in the past few decades, and that this trend will accelerate under further global warming. Between 1982 and 2016, we detect a doubling in the number of MHW days, and this number is projected to further increase on average by a factor of 16 for global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to preindustrial levels and by a factor of 23 for global warming of 2.0 degrees Celsius. However, current national policies for the reduction of global carbon emissions are predicted to result in global warming of about 3.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the twenty-first century
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, for which models project an average increase in the probability of MHWs by a factor of 41. At this level of warming, MHWs have an average spatial extent that is 21 times bigger than in preindustrial times, last on average 112 days and reach maximum sea surface temperature anomaly intensities of 2.5 degrees Celsius. The largest changes are projected to occur in the western tropical Pacific and Arctic oceans. Today, 87 per cent of MHWs are attributable to human-induced warming, with this ratio increasing to nearly 100 per cent under any global warming scenario exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Our results suggest that MHWs will become very frequent and extreme under global warming, probably pushing marine organisms and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience and even beyond, which could cause irreversible changes.
Satellite observations and Earth system model simulations reveal that marine heatwaves have increased in recent decades and will increase further in terms of frequency, intensity, duration and spatial extent.
Journal Article
Compound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes
Compound MHW-OAX events, during which marine heatwaves (MHWs) co-occur with ocean acidity extreme (OAX) events, can have larger impacts on marine ecosystems than the individual extremes. Using monthly open-ocean observations over the period 1982–2019, we show that globally 1.8 in 100 months (or about one out of five present-day MHW months) are compound MHW-OAX event months under a present-day baseline, almost twice as many as expected for 90th percentile extreme event exceedances if MHWs and OAX events were statistically independent. Compound MHW-OAX events are most likely in the subtropics (2.7 in 100 months; 10°−40° latitude) and less likely in the equatorial Pacific and the mid-to-high latitudes (0.7 in 100 months; >40° latitude). The likelihood pattern results from opposing effects of temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon on [H
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]. The likelihood is higher where the positive effect on [H
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] from increased temperatures during MHWs outweighs the negative effect on [H
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] from co-occurring decreases in dissolved inorganic carbon. Daily model output from a large-ensemble simulation of an Earth system model is analyzed to assess changes in the MHW-OAX likelihood under climate change. The projected long-term mean warming and acidification trends have the largest effect on the number of MHW-OAX days per year, increasing it from 12 to 265 days per year at 2 °C global warming relative to a fixed pre-industrial baseline. Even when long-term trends are removed, an increase in [H
+
] variability leads to a 60% increase in the number of MHW-OAX days under 2 °C global warming. These projected increases may cause severe impacts on marine ecosystems.
Compound extreme events in two or more oceanic ecosystem stressors are increasingly considered as a major concern for marine life. Here the authors present a first global analysis on compound marine heatwave and ocean acidity extreme events, identifying hotspots, drivers, and projecting future changes.
Journal Article
Emerging risks from marine heat waves
Recent marine heat waves have caused devastating impacts on marine ecosystems. Substantial progress in understanding past and future changes in marine heat waves and their risks for marine ecosystems is needed to predict how marine systems, and the goods and services they provide, will evolve in the future.
Journal Article
Mazda MX-5 Miata : twenty-five years
\"Celebrating a quarter century of the car that redefined its genre. The Mazda MX-5, (known as Miata in North America and Eunos Roadster in Japan), revolutionized the lightweight two-seater roadster market. By taking the front-engine, rear-wheel-drive layout of traditional British and Italian roadsters and combining it with the modern function and reliability for which Japanese cars were justly famous, Mazda created what many consider the perfect sports car.The MX-5 became the best-selling sports car of all time, selling over a million units worldwide. Customers proved that they hadn't lost their desire for simple, lightweight two-seat convertibles; they had simply lost their desire for unreliable, archaic European anachronisms that caught on fire as part of their charm.In 2009, English automotive critic Jeremy Clarkson wrote: \"The fact is that if you want a sports car, the MX-5 is perfect. Nothing on the road will give you better value. Nothing will give you so much fun. The only reason I'm giving it five stars is because I can't give it 14.\"Mazda MX-5 Miata: Twenty-Five Years is a handsomely-illustrated coffee-table book celebrating Mazda's ground-breakingMX-5 Miata, the car that revolutionized the lightweight two-seater roadster market\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Resource-rational analysis: Understanding human cognition as the optimal use of limited computational resources
Modeling human cognition is challenging because there are infinitely many mechanisms that can generate any given observation. Some researchers address this by constraining the hypothesis space through assumptions about what the human mind can and cannot do, while others constrain it through principles of rationality and adaptation. Recent work in economics, psychology, neuroscience, and linguistics has begun to integrate both approaches by augmenting rational models with cognitive constraints, incorporating rational principles into cognitive architectures, and applying optimality principles to understanding neural representations. We identify the rational use of limited resources as a unifying principle underlying these diverse approaches, expressing it in a new cognitive modeling paradigm called resource-rational analysis . The integration of rational principles with realistic cognitive constraints makes resource-rational analysis a promising framework for reverse-engineering cognitive mechanisms and representations. It has already shed new light on the debate about human rationality and can be leveraged to revisit classic questions of cognitive psychology within a principled computational framework. We demonstrate that resource-rational models can reconcile the mind's most impressive cognitive skills with people's ostensive irrationality. Resource-rational analysis also provides a new way to connect psychological theory more deeply with artificial intelligence, economics, neuroscience, and linguistics.
Journal Article
Hot, flat, and crowded : why we need a green revolution-- and how it can renew America
Examines America's loss of focus and national purpose since 9/11, and the global environmental crisis, and shows how the solutions to these two problems are linked.
Book
Machine learning for the prediction of sepsis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy
PurposeEarly clinical recognition of sepsis can be challenging. With the advancement of machine learning, promising real-time models to predict sepsis have emerged. We assessed their performance by carrying out a systematic review and meta-analysis.MethodsA systematic search was performed in PubMed, Embase.com and Scopus. Studies targeting sepsis, severe sepsis or septic shock in any hospital setting were eligible for inclusion. The index test was any supervised machine learning model for real-time prediction of these conditions. Quality of evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology, with a tailored Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) checklist to evaluate risk of bias. Models with a reported area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) metric were meta-analyzed to identify strongest contributors to model performance.ResultsAfter screening, a total of 28 papers were eligible for synthesis, from which 130 models were extracted. The majority of papers were developed in the intensive care unit (ICU, n = 15; 54%), followed by hospital wards (n = 7; 25%), the emergency department (ED, n = 4; 14%) and all of these settings (n = 2; 7%). For the prediction of sepsis, diagnostic test accuracy assessed by the AUROC ranged from 0.68–0.99 in the ICU, to 0.96–0.98 in-hospital and 0.87 to 0.97 in the ED. Varying sepsis definitions limit pooling of the performance across studies. Only three papers clinically implemented models with mixed results. In the multivariate analysis, temperature, lab values, and model type contributed most to model performance.ConclusionThis systematic review and meta-analysis show that on retrospective data, individual machine learning models can accurately predict sepsis onset ahead of time. Although they present alternatives to traditional scoring systems, between-study heterogeneity limits the assessment of pooled results. Systematic reporting and clinical implementation studies are needed to bridge the gap between bytes and bedside.
Journal Article