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"Thomas Fischer"
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r.avaflow v1, an advanced open-source computational framework for the propagation and interaction of two-phase mass flows
r.avaflow represents an innovative open-source computational tool for routing rapid mass flows, avalanches, or process chains from a defined release area down an arbitrary topography to a deposition area. In contrast to most existing computational tools, r.avaflow (i) employs a two-phase, interacting solid and fluid mixture model (Pudasaini, 2012); (ii) is suitable for modelling more or less complex process chains and interactions; (iii) explicitly considers both entrainment and stopping with deposition, i.e. the change of the basal topography; (iv) allows for the definition of multiple release masses, and/or hydrographs; and (v) serves with built-in functionalities for validation, parameter optimization, and sensitivity analysis. r.avaflow is freely available as a raster module of the GRASS GIS software, employing the programming languages Python and C along with the statistical software R. We exemplify the functionalities of r.avaflow by means of two sets of computational experiments: (1) generic process chains consisting in bulk mass and hydrograph release into a reservoir with entrainment of the dam and impact downstream; (2) the prehistoric Acheron rock avalanche, New Zealand. The simulation results are generally plausible for (1) and, after the optimization of two key parameters, reasonably in line with the corresponding observations for (2). However, we identify some potential to enhance the analytic and numerical concepts. Further, thorough parameter studies will be necessary in order to make r.avaflow fit for reliable forward simulations of possible future mass flow events.
Journal Article
Reconstruction of the 1941 GLOF process chain at Lake Palcacocha (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)
The Cordillera Blanca in Peru has been the scene of rapid deglaciation for many decades. One of numerous lakes formed in the front of the retreating glaciers is the moraine-dammed Lake Palcacocha, which drained suddenly due to an unknown cause in 1941. The resulting Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) led to dam failure and complete drainage of Lake Jircacocha downstream, and to major destruction and thousands of fatalities in the city of Huaráz at a distance of 23 km. We chose an integrated approach to revisit the 1941 event in terms of topographic reconstruction and numerical back-calculation with the GIS-based open-source mass flow/process chain simulation framework r.avaflow, which builds on an enhanced version of the Pudasaini (2012) two-phase flow model. Thereby we consider four scenarios: (A) and (AX) breach of the moraine dam of Lake Palcacocha due to retrogressive erosion, assuming two different fluid characteristics; (B) failure of the moraine dam caused by the impact of a landslide on the lake; and (C) geomechanical failure and collapse of the moraine dam. The simulations largely yield empirically adequate results with physically plausible parameters, taking the documentation of the 1941 event and previous calculations of future scenarios as reference. Most simulation scenarios indicate travel times between 36 and 70 min to reach Huaráz, accompanied with peak discharges above 10 000 m3 s−1. The results of the scenarios indicate that the most likely initiation mechanism would be retrogressive erosion, possibly triggered by a minor impact wave and/or facilitated by a weak stability condition of the moraine dam. However, the involvement of Lake Jircacocha disguises part of the signal of process initiation farther downstream. Predictive simulations of possible future events have to be based on a larger set of back-calculated GLOF process chains, taking into account the expected parameter uncertainties and appropriate strategies to deal with critical threshold effects.
Journal Article
Land use and land cover changes along the China-Myanmar oil and gas pipelines: monitoring infrastructure development in remote conflict-prone regions
Energy infrastructures can have negative impacts on the environment. In remote and / or sparsely populated as well as in conflict-prone regions, these can be difficult to assess, in particular when they are of a large scale. Analyzing land use and land cover changes can be an important initial step towards establishing the quantity and quality of impacts. Drawing from very-high-resolution-multi-temporal-satellite-imagery, this paper reports on a study which employed the Random Forest Classifier and Land Change Modeler to derive detailed information of the spatial patterns and temporal variations of land-use and land-cover changes resulting from the China-Myanmar Oil and Gas Pipelines in Ann township in Myanmar’s Rakhine State of Myanmar. Deforestation and afforestation conversion processes during pre- and post-construction periods (2010 to 2012) are compared. Whilst substantial forest areas were lost along the pipelines, this is only part of the story, as afforestation has also happened in parallel. However, afforestation areas can be of a lower value, and in order to be able to take quality of forests into account, it is of crucial importance to accompany satellite-imagery based techniques with field observation. Findings have important implications for future infrastructure development projects in conflict-affected regions in Myanmar and elsewhere
Journal Article
Inhibitory Antibodies Designed for Matrix Metalloproteinase Modulation
The family of matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) consists of a set of biological targets that are involved in a multitude of severe pathogenic events such as different forms of cancers or arthritis. Modulation of the target class with small molecule drugs has not led to the anticipated success until present, as all clinical trials failed due to unacceptable side effects or a lack of therapeutic outcome. Monoclonal antibodies offer a tremendous therapeutic potential given their high target selectivity and good pharmacokinetic profiles. For the treatment of a variety of diseases there are already antibody therapies available and the number is increasing. Recently, several antibodies were developed for the selective inhibition of single MMPs that showed high potency and were therefore investigated in in vivo studies with promising results. In this review, we highlight the progress that has been achieved toward the design of inhibitory antibodies that successfully modulate MMP-9 and MMP-14.
Journal Article
A Process Model of Complementarity and Substitution of Contractual and Relational Governance in IS Outsourcing
This paper develops a process model of how and why complementarity and substitution form over time between contractual and relational governance in the context of information systems outsourcing. Our analysis identifies four distinct process patterns that explain this formation as the outcome of interaction processes between key elements of both contractual and relational governance. These patterns unveil the dynamic nature of complementarity and substitution. In particular, we show that the relationship between contractual and relational governance oscillates between complementarity and substitution. Those oscillations are triggered mainly by three types of contextual events (goal fuzziness, goal conflict, and goal misalignment). Surprisingly, substitution of informal control did not occur as an immediate reaction to external events but emerged as a consequence of preceding complementarity. Thus, our study challenges the prevailing view of an either/or dichotomy of complementarity and substitution by showing that they are causally connected over time.
Journal Article
Climate Change Policy Coherence across Policies, Plans, and Strategies in Pakistan—Implications for the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor Plan
Climate Change (CC) adaptation and mitigation policy coherence (PC) across sectors is essential to effectively address CC challenges and support synergies. Pakistan is highly vulnerable to CC. In this paper, the extent to which Pakistan’s national and provincial water, agriculture, and energy sector policies, development plans and strategies are aligned in a CC policy coherent manner is established. In this context, a qualitative content document analysis with associated scoring is used to assess government documents. Furthermore, implications of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor Initiative (CPEC; 2017–2030), the biggest infrastructure investment program ever in Pakistan, are discussed. An important result is that sectoral policies are found to have different degrees of PC. Better coherence is found at federal than at provincial levels. Furthermore, CC policies are found to be more coherently addressed in water and agriculture policies than in energy policies. It is suggested that to achieve higher levels of CC PC, federal and provincial governments should establish mechanisms of intergovernmental consultation for policy-making and cross-sectoral planning, especially in the energy sector. Our findings can help the Government of Pakistan to transform CPEC into a model green Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region. In this context, there are important implications with regards to e.g., reducing coal-based energy projects and environmentally damaging infrastructure activities in sensitive ecosystems. With this paper, the authors want to raise awareness of the key importance of CC PC, particular in context of the BRI. Many countries participating in the initiative have carbon reduction targets in place.
Journal Article
Health impact assessment in two planning projects in England: reflections on normative effectiveness
Background
This article reports on research commissioned by (what was at the time) Public Health England (PHE). The objective is to reflect on the normative effectiveness of Health Impact Assessment (HIA) applied to two planning projects; (a) the new town at Cranbrook, Devon (HIA prepared in 2007), and (b) the regeneration of the Marsh farm area in Luton (HIA prepared in 2009). In this context, the focus is on the contribution of HIA to actions that are intended to lead to good or improved health and wellbeing.
Methods
Normative HIA effectiveness criteria derived from a literature review were used to guide the analysis. The two included HIA cases were previously identified as good practice examples with regards to procedure and report quality. Semi-structured interviews with public health, planning and other actors originally involved in the HIAs were conducted in 2021. This was followed up by web-searches for evidence on actual developments in 2023.
Results
Interviews indicated that normative effectiveness initially appeared to be high, but that the longer-term effects of the financial crash of 2008 reduced this. Delays in initially anticipated timelines and HIA actors moving elsewhere or retiring meant that HIAs were not followed-up and connections between developments and the HIAs were no longer made. However, web-based searches conducted in 2023 found that key HIA suggestions were eventually implemented, albeit with delay. There is also evidence for improved IMD (index of multiple deprivation) rankings in the Marsh farm regeneration case.
Conclusion
A mismatch is observed with regards to HIA exercises appearing to be largely ‘forgotten’ after over a decade of their publication, but recommendations still being implemented, possibly as a result of ‘institutional memory’. Making monitoring and follow-up of HIA binding rather than advisory would allow for direct linkages to be made.
Key points
Perceptions of the value of HIA can be strengthened by making it compulsory to follow up recommendations.
Consideration of HIA monitoring plans should be enforced and go beyond planning consent and onsite works.
Whilst connections between HIA and development were lost, key recommendations were eventually implemented, even if the HIAs themselves were largely forgotten, hinting at institutional memory surviving over time.
A wider evidence base should be created on normative effectiveness of HIA.
Journal Article