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The present study evaluated the ability of the visceral adiposity index (VAI), the lipid accumulation product (LAP), and product of triglycerides and glucose (TyG), three novel, insulin resistance-related markers, to discriminate prediabetes/diabetes in the general German population. Altogether 2,045 Germans (31–72 years, 53.3% women) without known diabetes and a history of Myocardial Infarction (MI)/stroke from the Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) F4 Study were eligible. The discriminatory accuracy of the markers for oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT)-defined prediabetes/diabetes according to the American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). The Youden Index (YI) was used to determine optimal cut-off values, and a non-parametric ROC regression was used to examine whether the discriminatory accuracy varied by sex and age. 365 men (38.2%) and 257 women (23.6%) were newly diagnosed with prediabetes/diabetes. AUCs for TyG, LAP and VAI were 0.762 (95% CI 0.740–0.784), 0.743 (95% CI 0.720–0.765), and 0.687 (95% CI 0.662–0.712), respectively. The optimal cut-off values for the LAP and TyG were 56.70 and 8.75 in men, and 30.40 and 8.53 in women. In conclusion, TyG and LAP provide good discrimination of persons with prediabetes/diabetes.

Background Hypertension remains a significant modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and a major determinant of morbidity and mortality. We aimed to describe sex-stratified age-standardized estimates of prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension, and their associated factors in older adults. Methods The KORA-Age1 is a population-based cross-sectional survey carried out in 2008/2009 on individuals aged 65–94 years in Augsburg region, Germany. Blood pressure measurements were available for 1052 out of 1079 persons who participated in the physical examination. Factors associated with prevalence, awareness and control of hypertension were investigated by multivariable logistic regression. Results The overall prevalence of hypertension (≥140/90 mmHg) was 73.8% [95% confidence interval (CI), 69.3–77.9], representing 74.8% (95% CI, 68.4–80.2) in men and 73.5% (95% CI, 66.8–79.3) in women. Among those with hypertension, 80.2% (95% CI, 75.3–84.4) were aware of their hypertensive condition and 74.4% (95% CI, 69.2–79.1) were on treatment for hypertension. Among those aware of their hypertension status, 92.8% (95% CI, 88.8–95.6) were on treatment and 53.7% (95% CI, 47.0–60.1) had their blood pressure controlled. Hypertension was more frequent in individuals who were older, obese, or had diabetes. Higher education attainment or presence of comorbidities was associated with higher level of hypertension awareness. Individuals taking three antihypertensive drug classes were more likely to have controlled hypertension compared with those taking one antihypertensive drug class, odds ratio (OR), 1.85 (95% CI, 1.14–2.99). Conclusion Our findings identified high prevalence of hypertension and relevant health gaps on awareness, treatment and suboptimal control of hypertension in older adults in Germany. Screening for hypertension should especially target older adults with low educational attainment and ‘healthy’ elderly with less contact to physicians.

Aims/hypothesisThe prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing worldwide, and previous studies have suggested that it is higher in individuals who are seropositive for herpesviruses. This study examines the prospective association of herpesviruses with (pre)diabetes to evaluate their potential role in diabetes aetiology.MethodsTwo follow-up examinations of the German population-based KORA cohort (F4 and FF4) were used to identify participants with normal glucose tolerance at baseline, thus being at risk for (pre)diabetes (n = 1257). All participants had repeated OGTTs and antibody measurements for herpes simplex virus (HSV) 1 and 2, varicella-zoster virus, Epstein–Barr virus, cytomegalovirus (CMV) and human herpesvirus 6 and 7. Regression models were used to evaluate the association between serostatus with (pre)diabetes incidence after a 7 year follow-up and HbA1c.ResultsHSV2 and CMV were associated with (pre)diabetes incidence after adjustment for sex, age, BMI, education, smoking, physical activity, parental diabetes, hypertension, lipid levels, insulin resistance and fasting glucose. Seropositivity of both viruses was also cross-sectionally associated with higher HbA1c at baseline, with the association of HSV2 being independent of confounders, including the prevalence of (pre)diabetes itself. While seropositivity for multiple herpesviruses was associated with a higher incidence of (pre)diabetes, this association was not independent of confounders.Conclusions/interpretationThe associations of HSV2 and CMV serostatus with (pre)diabetes incidence indicate that these herpesviruses may contribute to the development of impaired glucose metabolism. Our results highlight the link between viral infection and (pre)diabetes, and the need for more research evaluating viral prevention strategies.

DNA methylation (DNAm) patterns in peripheral blood have been shown to be associated with aging related health outcomes. We perform an epigenome-wide screening to identify CpGs related to frailty, defined by a frailty index (FI), in a large population-based cohort of older adults from Germany, the ESTHER study. Sixty-five CpGs are identified as frailty related methylation loci. Using LASSO regression, 20 CpGs are selected to derive a DNAm based algorithm for predicting frailty, the epigenetic frailty risk score (eFRS). The eFRS exhibits strong associations with frailty at baseline and after up to five-years of follow-up independently of established frailty risk factors. These associations are confirmed in another independent population-based cohort study, the KORA-Age study, conducted in older adults. In conclusion, we identify 65 CpGs as frailty-related loci, of which 20 CpGs are used to calculate the eFRS with predictive performance for frailty over long-term follow-up. Frailty is associated with an increased risk for negative health outcomes in older populations, and being able to predict frailty could facilitate prevention measures. By performing an epigenome-wide screen, the authors derived a DNA methylation based measure for frailty which can predict both prevalence and longer-term incidence of frailty.

Background A number of prior studies have examined the association between anthropometric measures and mortality, but studies investigating the sex-specific predictive value of novel anthropometric measures on mortality are scarce so far. Therefore, we investigated the sex-specific relevance of the new anthropometric measures body adiposity index (BAI) and waist to height ratio (WHtR) as well as the common measures body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and waist to hip ratio (WHR) for cause-specific mortality risk. Methods The analysis was based on data from the German population based KORA (Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg) Augsburg cohort study. A total of 6670 men and 6637 women aged 25 to 74 years at baseline examination were included. During a mean follow-up period of 15.4 years, 2409 persons died. Via Cox proportional hazard regression, the associations between the different anthropometric measures and all cause-, cardiovascular disease (CVD)- and cancer mortality were assessed. Results BMI, WC, and WHR were significantly associated with all-cause and CVD-mortality in both sexes. WC and WHR were particularly associated with higher all-cause and CVD-mortality risk in women, while in men especially WHtR and BAI were strongly related to these outcomes. Females with WC, WHtR, and WHR measures in the 4th quartile compared with women in the 2nd quartile had a higher risk of death from cancer. Contrary, men in the lowest quartile of WC and WHtR in comparison to men in the 2nd quartile had a significantly elevated cancer mortality risk. BAI was no risk predictor for all-cause and cause-specific mortality in women. Conclusions Central obesity reflects higher all-cause and CVD-mortality risk particularly in women. BAI and WHtR seem to be valid as risk predictors for all-cause and especially CVD mortality in men but not women. There are marked sex-differences regarding cancer mortality risk for the different anthropometric measures.

Multiple risk factors contribute jointly to the development and progression of cardiometabolic diseases. Therefore, joint longitudinal trajectories of multiple risk factors might represent different degrees of cardiometabolic risk. We analyzed population-based data comprising three examinations (Exam 1: 1999-2001, Exam 2: 2006-2008, Exam 3: 2013-2014) of 976 male and 1004 female participants of the KORA cohort (Southern Germany). Participants were followed up for cardiometabolic diseases, including cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction and stroke, or a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, until 2016. Longitudinal multivariate k-means clustering identified sex-specific trajectory clusters based on nine cardiometabolic risk factors (age, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body-mass-index, waist circumference, Hemoglobin-A1c, total cholesterol, high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol). Associations between clusters and cardiometabolic events were assessed by logistic regression models. We identified three trajectory clusters for men and women, respectively. Trajectory clusters reflected a distinct distribution of cardiometabolic risk burden and were associated with prevalent cardiometabolic disease at Exam 3 (men: odds ratio (OR)ClusterII = 2.0, 95% confidence interval: (0.9-4.5); ORClusterIII = 10.5 (4.8-22.9); women: ORClusterII = 1.7 (0.6-4.7); ORClusterIII = 5.8 (2.6-12.9)). Trajectory clusters were furthermore associated with incident cardiometabolic cases after Exam 3 (men: ORClusterII = 3.5 (1.1-15.6); ORClusterIII = 7.5 (2.4-32.7); women: ORClusterII = 5.0 (1.1-34.1); ORClusterIII = 8.0 (2.2-51.7)). Associations remained significant after adjusting for a single time point cardiovascular risk score (Framingham). On a population-based level, distinct longitudinal risk profiles over a 14-year time period are differentially associated with cardiometabolic events. Our results suggest that longitudinal data may provide additional information beyond single time-point measures. Their inclusion in cardiometabolic risk assessment might improve early identification of individuals at risk.

Intensity and duration of physical activity are associated with the achievement of health benefits. Our aim was to characterize physical activity behavior in terms of intensity, duration pattern, and adherence to the WHO physical activity recommendations in a population-based sample of adults from southern Germany. Further, we investigated associations between physical activity and sex, age, and body mass index (BMI), considering also common chronic diseases. We analyzed 475 subjects (47% males, mean age 58 years, range 48-68 years) who wore ActiGraph accelerometers for up to seven days. Measured accelerations per minute obtained from the vertical axis (uniaxial) and the vector magnitude of all three axes (triaxial) were classified as sedentary, light or moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) according to predefined acceleration count cut-offs. The average minutes/day spent in each activity level per subject served as outcome. Associations of sex, age, BMI, and seven chronic diseases or health limitations, with the activity levels were analyzed by negative binomial regression. Most of the wear time was spent in sedentarism (median 61%/day), whereas the median time spent in MVPA was only 3%, with men achieving more MVPA than women (35 vs. 28 minutes/day, p<0.05). Almost two thirds of MVPA was achieved in short bouts of less than 5 minutes, and 35% of the subjects did not achieve a single 10-minute bout. Hence, only 14% adhered to the WHO recommendation of 2.5 hours of MVPA/week in at least 10-minute bouts. Females, older subjects and obese subjects spent less time in MVPA (p<0.05), but no clear association with hypertension, asthma, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety/depression, pain or walking difficulties was observed in regression analyses with MVPA as outcome. Activity behavior among middle-aged German adults was highly insufficient, indicating a further need for physical activity promotion in order to gain health benefits.

Background Chronic kidney disease has emerged as a strong cardiovascular risk factor, and in many current guidelines, it is already considered as a coronary heart disease (CHD) equivalent. Routinely, creatinine has been used as the main marker of renal function, but recently, cystatin C emerged as a more promising marker. The aim of this study was to assess the comparative cardiovascular and mortality risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) using cystatin C-based and creatinine-based equations of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in participants of population-based and disease cohorts. Methods The present study has been conducted within the BiomarCaRE project, with harmonized data from 20 population-based cohorts ( n  = 76,954) from 6 European countries and 3 cardiovascular disease (CVD) cohorts ( n  = 4982) from Germany. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess hazard ratios (HRs) for the various CKD definitions with adverse outcomes and mortality after adjustment for the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) variables and study center. Main outcome measures were cardiovascular diseases, cardiovascular death, and all-cause mortality. Results The overall prevalence of CKD stage 3–5 by creatinine- and cystatin C-based eGFR, respectively, was 3.3% and 7.4% in the population-based cohorts and 13.9% and 14.4% in the disease cohorts. CKD was an important independent risk factor for subsequent CVD events and mortality. For example, in the population-based cohorts, the HR for CVD mortality was 1.72 (95% CI 1.53 to 1.92) with creatinine-based CKD and it was 2.14 (95% CI 1.90 to 2.40) based on cystatin-based CKD compared to participants without CKD. In general, the HRs were higher for cystatin C-based CKD compared to creatinine-based CKD, for all three outcomes and risk increased clearly below the conventional threshold for CKD, also in older adults. Net reclassification indices were larger for a cystatin-C based CKD definition. Differences in HRs (between the two CKD measures) in the disease cohorts were less pronounced than in the population-based cohorts. Conclusion CKD is an important risk factor for subsequent CVD events and total mortality. However, point estimates of creatinine- and cystatin C-based CKD differed considerably between low- and high-risk populations. Especially in low-risk settings, the use of cystatin C-based CKD may result in more accurate risk estimates and have better prognostic value.

Multimorbidity is a common problem in aged populations with a wide range of individual and societal consequences. The objective of the study was to explore patterns of comorbidity and multimorbidity in an elderly population using different analytical approaches. Data were gathered from the population-based KORA-Age project, which included 4,127 persons aged 65-94 years living in the city of Augsburg and its two surrounding counties in Southern Germany. Information on the presence of 13 chronic conditions was collected in a standardized telephone interview and a self-administered questionnaire. Patterns of comorbidity and multimorbidity were analyzed using prevalence figures, logistic regression models and exploratory tetrachoric factor analysis. The prevalence of multimorbidity (≥2 diseases) was 58.6% in the total sample. Hypertension and diabetes (Odds Ratio [OR] 2.95, 99.58% confidence interval [CI] [2.19-3.96]), as well as hypertension and stroke (OR 2.00, 99.58% CI [1.26-3.16]) most often occurred in combination. This association was independent of age, sex and the presence of other conditions. Using factor analysis, we identified four patterns of multimorbidity: the first pattern includes cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, the second includes joint, liver, lung and eye diseases, the third covers mental and neurologic diseases and the fourth pattern includes gastrointestinal diseases and cancer. 44% of the persons were assigned to at least one of the four multimorbidity patterns; 14% could be assigned to both the cardiovascular/metabolic and the joint/liver/lung/eye pattern. Further common pairs were the mental/neurologic pattern combined with the cardiovascular/metabolic pattern (7.2%) or the joint/liver/lung/eye pattern (5.3%), respectively. Our results confirmed the existence of co-occurrence of certain diseases in elderly persons, which is not caused by chance. Some of the identified patterns of multimorbidity and their overlap may indicate common underlying pathological mechanisms.

Background Missing values are a frequent issue in human studies. In many situations, multiple imputation (MI) is an appropriate missing data handling strategy, whereby missing values are imputed multiple times, the analysis is performed in every imputed data set, and the obtained estimates are pooled. If the aim is to estimate (added) predictive performance measures, such as (change in) the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), internal validation strategies become desirable in order to correct for optimism. It is not fully understood how internal validation should be combined with multiple imputation. Methods In a comprehensive simulation study and in a real data set based on blood markers as predictors for mortality, we compare three combination strategies: Val-MI , internal validation followed by MI on the training and test parts separately, MI-Val , MI on the full data set followed by internal validation, and MI(-y)-Val , MI on the full data set omitting the outcome followed by internal validation. Different validation strategies, including bootstrap und cross-validation, different (added) performance measures, and various data characteristics are considered, and the strategies are evaluated with regard to bias and mean squared error of the obtained performance estimates. In addition, we elaborate on the number of resamples and imputations to be used, and adopt a strategy for confidence interval construction to incomplete data. Results Internal validation is essential in order to avoid optimism, with the bootstrap 0.632+ estimate representing a reliable method to correct for optimism. While estimates obtained by MI-Val are optimistically biased, those obtained by MI(-y)-Val tend to be pessimistic in the presence of a true underlying effect. Val-MI provides largely unbiased estimates, with a slight pessimistic bias with increasing true effect size, number of covariates and decreasing sample size. In Val-MI , accuracy of the estimate is more strongly improved by increasing the number of bootstrap draws rather than the number of imputations. With a simple integrated approach, valid confidence intervals for performance estimates can be obtained. Conclusions When prognostic models are developed on incomplete data, Val-MI represents a valid strategy to obtain estimates of predictive performance measures.