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Influenza immunisation during pregnancy is recommended but not widely implemented in some low-income regions. We assessed the safety and efficacy in mothers and infants of year-round maternal influenza immunisation in Nepal, where influenza viruses circulate throughout the year. In this phase 4, randomised, placebo-controlled trial, we enrolled two consecutive sequential annual cohorts of pregnant women from the Sarlahi district in southern Nepal. We randomised mothers 1:1 to receive seasonally recommended trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine or saline placebo in blocks of eight, stratified by gestational age at enrolment (17–25 weeks vs 26–34 weeks). Women were eligible if they were married, 15–40 years of age, 17–34 weeks' gestation at enrolment, and had not previously received any influenza vaccine that season. We collected serum samples before and after immunisation, and cord blood from a subset of women and infants. Staff masked to allocation made home visits every week from enrolment to 6 months after delivery. Midnasal swabs for respiratory virus PCR testing were collected during maternal acute febrile respiratory infections, and from infants with any respiratory symptom. We assessed vaccine immunogenicity, safety, and three primary outcomes: the incidence of maternal influenza-like illness in pregnancy and 0–180 days postpartum, the incidence of low birthweight (<2500 g), and the incidence of laboratory-confirmed infant influenza disease from 0 to 180 days. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01034254. From April 25, 2011, to Sept 9, 2013, we enrolled 3693 women in two cohorts of 2090 (1041 assigned to placebo and 1049 to vaccine) and 1603 (805 assigned to placebo and 798 to vaccine), with 3646 liveborn infants (cohort 1, 999 in placebo group and 1010 in vaccine group; cohort 2, 805 in placebo group and 798 in vaccine group). Immunisation reduced maternal febrile influenza-like illness with an overall efficacy of 19% (95% CI 1 to 34) in the combined cohorts; 9% efficacy (−16 to 29) in the first cohort, and 36% efficacy (9 to 55) in the second cohort. For laboratory-confirmed influenza infections in infants aged 0–6 months, immunisation had an overall efficacy for the combined cohorts of 30% (95% CI 5 to 48); in the first cohort, the efficacy was 16% (−19 to 41), and in the second cohort it was 60% (26 to 88). Maternal immunisation reduced the rates of low birthweight by 15% (95% CI 3–25) in both cohorts combined. The rate of small for gestational age infants was not modified by immunisation. The number of adverse events was similar regardless of immunisation status. Miscarriage occurred in three (0·2%) participants in the placebo group versus five (0·3%) in the vaccine group, stillbirth occurred in 31 (1·7%) versus 33 (1·8%), and congenital defects occurred in 18 (1·0%) versus 20 (1·1%). Five women died in the placebo group and three died in the vaccine group. The number of infant deaths at age 0–6 months was similar in each group (50 in the placebo group and 61 in the vaccine group). No serious adverse events were associated with receipt of immunisation. Year-round maternal influenza immunisation significantly reduced maternal influenza-like illness, influenza in infants, and low birthweight over the entire course of the study, indicating the strategy could be useful in subtropical regions. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimates for cause-specific mortality for neonates are generally available for all countries for neonates overall (0 to 28 days). However, cause-specific mortality is generally not being estimated at higher age resolution for neonates, despite evidence of heterogeneity in the causes of deaths during this period. We aimed to use the adapted log quadratic model in a setting where verbal autopsy was the primary means of determining cause of death. We examined the timing and causes of death among a cohort of neonates in rural Nepal followed as part of the Nepal Oil Massage Study (NOMS). We adapted methods defined by Wilmoth et al (2012) and Guillot et al. (2022) to estimate age and cause-specific mortality among neonates. We used cross validation to estimate the accuracy of this model, holding out each three month period. We took the average cross validation across hold out as our measure of model performance and compared to a standard approach which did not account for the heterogeneity in cause-specific mortality rate within this age group. There were 957 neonates in the NOMS cohort with known age and cause of death. We estimated an average cross-validation error of 0.9 per 1000 live births for mortality due to prematurity in the first week, and 1.1 for mortality due to birth asphyxia, compared to the standard approach, having error 7.4 and 7.8 per 1000 live births, respectively. Generally mortality rates for less common causes such as congenital malformations and pneumonia were estimated with higher cross-validation error. The stability and precision of these estimates compare favorably with similar estimates developed with higher quality cause-specific mortality surveillance from China, demonstrating that reliably estimating causes of mortality at high resolution is possible for neonates in low resources areas.

Poverty and human capital development are inextricably linked and therefore research on human capital typically incorporates measures of economic well-being. In the context of randomized trials of health interventions, for example, such measures are used to: 1) assess baseline balance; 2) estimate covariate-adjusted analyses; and 3) conduct subgroup analyses. Many factors characterize economic well-being, however, and analysts often generate summary measures such as indices of household socio-economic status or wealth. In this paper, a household wealth index is developed and tested for participants in the cluster-randomized Sanitation, Hygiene, Infant Nutrition Efficacy (SHINE) trial in rural Zimbabwe. Building on the approach used in the Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS), we combined a set of housing characteristics, ownership of assets and agricultural resources into a wealth index using principal component analysis (PCA) on binary variables. The index was assessed for internal and external validity. Its sensitivity was examined considering an expanded set of variables and an alternative statistical approach of polychoric PCA. Correlation between indices was determined using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and agreement between quintiles using a linear weighted Kappa statistic. Using the 2015 ZDHS data, we constructed a separate index and applied the loadings resulting from that analysis to the SHINE study population, to compare the wealth distribution in the SHINE study with rural Zimbabwe. The derived indices using the different methods were highly correlated (r>0.9), and the wealth quintiles derived from the different indices had substantial to near perfect agreement (linear weighted Kappa>0.7). The indices were strongly associated with a range of assets and other wealth measures, indicating both internal and external validity. Households in SHINE were modestly wealthier than the overall population of households in rural Zimbabwe. The SHINE wealth index developed here is a valid and robust measure of wealth in the sample.

We use data from rural Nepal and South India to compare the prevalence of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and neonatal mortality risk associated with SGA using different birth-weight-for-gestation reference populations. We identified 46 reference populations in low-, middle-, and high-income countries, of which 26 met the inclusion criteria of being commonly cited and having numeric 10th percentile cut points published. Those reference populations were then applied to populations from two community-based studies to determine SGA prevalence and its relative risk of neonatal mortality. The prevalence of SGA ranged from 10.5% to 72.5% in Nepal, and 12.0% to 78.4% in India, depending on the reference population. Females had higher rates of SGA than males using reference populations that were not sex specific. SGA prevalence was lowest when using reference populations from low-income countries. Infants who were both preterm and SGA had much higher mortality risk than those who were term and appropriate-for-gestational-age. Risk ratios for those who are both preterm and SGA ranged from 7.34-17.98 in Nepal and 5.29-11.98 in India, depending on the reference population. These results demonstrate the value of a common birth-weight-for-gestation reference population that will facilitate comparisons of SGA prevalence and mortality risk across research studies.

Background Despite recent improvements in child survival, neonatal mortality continues to decline at a slower rate and now represents 47% of under-five deaths globally. The World Health Organization developed core indicators to better monitor the quality of maternal and newborn health services. One such indicator for newborn health is “the proportion of newborns who received all four elements of essential care”. The four elements are immediate and thorough drying, skin to skin contact, delayed cord clamping, and early initiation of breastfeeding. Although there is existing evidence demonstrating an association with decreased neonatal mortality for each element individually, the cumulative impact has not yet been examined. Methods This analysis uses data from a randomized trial to examine the impact of sunflower versus mustard seed oil massage on neonatal mortality and morbidity in the Sarlahi district in Southern Nepal from 2010 to 2017. The proportion of newborn infants receiving an intervention was the exposure and neonatal mortality was the outcome in this analysis. Neonatal mortality was defined as a death between three hours and less than 28 days of age. Associations between neonatal mortality and the essential elements were estimated by Cox proportion hazards models. The hazard ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were reported. Results 28,121 mother-infant pairs and 753 neonatal deaths were included. The percent receiving the individual elements ranged from 19.5% (skin to skin contact) to 68.2% (delayed cord clamping). The majority of infants received one or two of the elements of essential care, with less than 1% receiving all four. Skin to skin contact and early initiation of breastfeeding were associated with lower risk of neonatal mortality (aHR = 0.64 [0.51, 0.81] and aHR = 0.72 [0.60, 0.87], respectively). The risk of mortality declined as the number of elements received increased; receipt of one element compared to zero was associated with a nearly 50% reduction in risk of mortality and receipt of all four elements resulted in a 72% decrease in risk of mortality. Conclusions The receipt of one or more of the four essential elements of newborn care was associated with improved neonatal survival. The more elements of care received, the more survival improved.

To assess the association between maternal characteristics, adverse birth outcomes (small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and/or preterm) and neonatal mortality in rural Nepal. This is a secondary observational analysis to identify risk factors for neonatal mortality, using data from a randomised trial to assess the impact of newborn massage with different oils on neonatal mortality in Sarlahi district, Nepal. Rural Sarlahi district, Nepal. 40 119 pregnant women enrolled from 9 September 2010 to 16 January 2017. The outcome variable is neonatal death. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted Hazard Ratios (aHRs) to assess the association between adverse birth outcomes and neonatal mortality. There were 32 004 live births and 998 neonatal deaths. SGA and/or preterm birth was strongly associated with increased neonatal mortality: SGA and preterm (aHR: 7.09, 95% CI: (4.44 to 11.31)), SGA and term/post-term (aHR: 2.12, 95% CI: (1.58 to 2.86)), appropriate-for-gestational-age/large-for-gestational-age and preterm (aHR: 3.23, 95% CI: (2.30 to 4.54)). Neonatal mortality was increased with a history of prior child deaths (aHR: 1.53, 95% CI: (1.24 to 1.87)), being a twin or triplet (aHR: 5.64, 95% CI: (4.25 to 7.48)), births at health posts/clinics or in hospital (aHR: 1.34, 95% CI: (1.13 to 1.58)) and on the way to facilities or outdoors (aHR: 2.26, 95% CI: (1.57 to 3.26)). Risk was lower with increasing maternal height from <145 cm to 145-150 cm (aHR: 0.78, 95% CI: (0.65 to 0.94)) to ≥150 cm (aHR: 0.57, 95% CI: (0.47 to 0.68)), four or more antenatal care (ANC) visits (aHR: 0.67, 95% CI: (0.53 to 0.86)) and education >5 years (aHR: 0.75, 95% CI: (0.62 to 0.92)). SGA and/or preterm birth are strongly associated with increased neonatal mortality. To reduce neonatal mortality, interventions that prevent SGA and preterm births by promoting ANC and facility delivery, and care of high-risk infants after birth should be tested. NCT01177111.

Background Nausea and vomiting are experienced by a majority of pregnant women worldwide. Previous studies have yielded conflicting results regarding their impact on birth outcomes and few studies have examined this relationship in settings with limited resources. We aimed to determine the effect of nausea, vomiting and poor appetite during pregnancy on birth outcomes in rural Nepal. Methods Observational cohort study using data collected in two randomized, community-based trials to assess the effect of influenza immunization during pregnancy on reproductive and respiratory outcomes among pregnant women and their offspring. Pregnant women in Sarlahi District, Nepal were recruited from 2011 to 2013. Exposure was defined as nausea, vomiting or poor appetite at any point during pregnancy and by trimester; symptoms were recorded monthly throughout pregnancy. Adverse outcomes were low birth weight (LBW), preterm birth and small for gestational age (SGA). Adjusted relative risks (aRR) with 95% CIs are reported from Poisson regressions with robust variance. Results Among 3,623 pregnant women, the cumulative incidence of nausea, vomiting or poor appetite was 49.5% ( n  = 1793) throughout pregnancy and 60.6% ( n  = 731) in the first trimester. Significantly higher aRRs of LBW and SGA were observed among women experiencing symptoms during pregnancy as compared to symptom free women (LBW: aRR 1.20; 95% CI 1.05 1.28; SGA: aRR 1.16; 95% CI 1.05 1.28). Symptoms in the first trimester were not significantly associated with any of the outcomes. In the second trimester, we observed significantly higher aRRs for LBW and SGA (LBW: aRR 1.17; 95% CI 1.01 1.36; SGA: aRR 1.16; 95% CI 1.05 1.29) and a significantly lower aRR for preterm birth (aRR 0.75; 95% CI 0.59 0.96). In the third trimester, we observed significantly higher aRRs for LBW and SGA (LBW: aRR 1.20; 95% CI 1.01 1.43; SGA: aRR 1.14; 95% CI 1.01 1.29). Conclusions Symptoms of nausea, vomiting or poor appetite during pregnancy are associated with LBW, SGA and preterm birth in a setting with limited resources, especially beyond the first trimester. Trial registration Prospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov on Dec 17, 2009 ( NCT01034254 ).

In low-income countries, birth weights for home deliveries are often measured at the nadir when babies may lose up of 10% of their birth weight, biasing estimates of small-for-gestational age (SGA) and low birth weight (LBW). We aimed to develop an imputation model that predicts the 'true' birth weight at time of delivery. We developed and applied a model that recalibrates weights measured in the early neonatal period to time=0 at delivery and uses those recalibrated birth weights to impute missing birth weights. This is a secondary analysis of pregnancy cohort data from two studies in Sarlahi district, Nepal. The participants are 457 babies with daily weights measured in the first 10 days of life from a subsample of a larger clinical trial on chlorhexidine (CHX) neonatal skin cleansing and 31 116 babies followed through the neonatal period to test the impact of neonatal massage oil type (Nepal Oil Massage Study (NOMS)). We developed an empirical Bayes model of early neonatal weight change using CHX trial longitudinal data and applied it to the NOMS dataset to recalibrate and then impute birth weight at delivery. The outcomes are size-for-gestational age and LBW. When using the imputed birth weights, the proportion of SGA is reduced from 49% (95% CI: 48% to 49%) to 44% (95% CI: 43% to 44%). Low birth weight is reduced from 30% (95% CI: 30% to 31%) to 27% (95% CI: 26% to 27%). The proportion of babies born large-for-gestational age increased from 4% (95% CI: 4% to 4%) to 5% (95% CI: 5% to 5%). Using weights measured around the nadir overestimates the prevalence of SGA and LBW. Studies in low-income settings with high levels of home births should consider a similar recalibration and imputation model to generate more accurate population estimates of small and vulnerable newborns.

ObjectivesNeonatal mortality is generally 20% higher in boys than girls due to biological phenomena. Only a few studies have examined more finely categorised age patterns of neonatal mortality by sex, especially in the first few days of life. The objective of this study is to examine sex differentials in neonatal mortality by detailed ages in a low-income setting.DesignThis is a secondary observational analysis of data.SettingRural Sarlahi district, Nepal.ParticipantsNeonates born between 1999 and 2017 in three randomised controlled trials.Outcome measuresWe calculated study-specific and pooled mortality rates for boys and girls by ages (0–1, 1–3, 3–7, 7–14, 14–21 and 21–28 days) and estimated HR using Cox proportional hazards models for male versus female mortality for treatment and control groups together (n=59 729).ResultsNeonatal mortality was higher in boys than girls in individual studies: 44.2 vs 39.7 in boys and girls in 1999–2000; 30.0 vs 29.6 in 2002–2006; 33.4 vs 29.4 in 2010–2017; and 33.0 vs 30.2 in the pooled data analysis. Pooled data found that early neonatal mortality (HR=1.17; 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.30) was significantly higher in boys than girls. All individual datasets showed a reversal in mortality by sex after the third week of life. In the fourth week, a reversal was observed, with mortality in girls 2.43 times higher than boys (HR=0.41; 95% CI: 0.31 to 0.79).ConclusionsBoys had higher mortality in the first week followed by no sex difference in weeks 2 and 3 and a reversal in risk in week 4, with girls dying at more than twice the rate of boys. This may be a result of gender discrimination and social norms in this setting. Interventions to reduce gender discrimination at the household level may reduce female neonatal mortality.Trial registration number NCT00115271, NCT00109616, NCT01177111.

Introduction Countries without complete civil registration and vital statistics systems rely on retrospective full pregnancy history surveys (FPH) to estimate incidence of pregnancy and mortality outcomes, including stillbirth and neonatal death. Yet surveys are subject to biases that impact demographic estimates, and few studies have quantified these effects. We compare data from an FPH vs. prospective records from a population-based cohort to estimate validity for maternal recall of live births, stillbirths, and neonatal deaths in a rural population in Sarlahi District, Nepal. Methods We used prospective data, collected through frequent visits of women from early pregnancy through the neonatal period, from a population-based randomized trial spanning 2010–2017. We randomly selected 76 trial participants from three pregnancy outcome groups: live birth ( n  = 26), stillbirth ( n  = 25), or neonatal death ( n  = 25). Data collectors administered the Nepal 2016 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)-VII pregnancy history survey between October 22, 2021, and November 18, 2021. We compared total pregnancy outcomes and numbers of pregnancy and neonatal outcomes between the two data sources. We matched pregnancy outcomes dates in the two sources within ± 30 days and calculated measures of validity for adverse outcomes. Results Among 76 participants, we recorded 122 pregnancy outcomes in the prospective data and 104 outcomes in the FPH within ± 30 days of each woman’s total observation period in the trial. Among 226 outcomes, we observed 65 live births that survived to 28 days, 25 stillbirths, and 32 live births followed by neonatal death in the prospective data and participants reported 63 live births that survived to 28 days, 15 stillbirths, and 26 live births followed by neonatal death in the pregnancy history survey. Sixty-two FPH outcomes were matched by date within ± 30 days to an outcome in prospective data. Stillbirth, neonatal death, higher parity, and delivery at a health facility were associated with likelihood of a non-matched pregnancy outcome. Conclusions Stillbirth and neonatal deaths were underestimated overall by the FPH, potentially underestimating the burden of mortality in this population. There is a need to develop tools to reduce or adjust for biases and errors in retrospective surveys to improve reporting of pregnancy and mortality outcomes.