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"Townsend, Robert"
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Kinship and Financial Networks, Formal Financial Access, and Risk Reduction
Kinship networks are beneficial for smoothing consumption and investment, but the channels are not well understood. We study the financing devices used for consumption and investment by Thai households. Households that are connected to banks achieve significantly better consumption smoothing than unconnected households; indirect connections via inter-household borrowing are as effective as direct borrowing. Investment appears to be facilitated by kinship: households with kin in the village display reduced sensitivity of investment to income, while connections to banks do not significantly reduce sensitivity. Kin may act as “implicit collateral,” permitting borrowing that would violate repayment constraints in its absence.
Journal Article
Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India
Why do many households remain exposed to large exogenous sources of nonsystematic income risk? We use a series of randomized field experiments in rural India to test the importance of price and nonprice factors in the adoption of an innovative rainfall insurance product. Demand is significantly price sensitive, but widespread take-up would not be achieved even if the product offered a payout ratio comparable to US insurance contracts. We present evidence suggesting that lack of trust, liquidity constraints, and limited salience are significant nonprice frictions that constrain demand.We suggest possible contract design improvements to mitigate these frictions.
Journal Article
Households as corporate firms : an analysis of household finance using integrated household surveys and corporate financial accounting
\"This investigation proposes a conceptual framework for measurement necessary for an analysis of household finance and economic development. The authors build on and, where appropriate, modify corporate financial accounts to create balance sheets, income statements, and statements of cash flows for households in developing countries, using an integrated household survey. The authors also illustrate how to apply the accounts to an analysis of household finance that includes productivity of household enterprises, capital structure, liquidity, financing, and portfolio management. The conceptualization of this analysis has important implications for measurement, questionnaire design, the modeling of household decisions, and the analysis of panel data\"--Provided by publisher.
Book
Village and Larger Economies: The Theory and Measurement of the Townsend Thai Project
I have spent close to 20 years cataloging transactions between households in Thai villages, along with a research team. Just this past summer, we documented a number of ways in which even relatively poor villages have money markets not dissimilar in some ways from New York financial markets, with borrowing and repayment passing along links in credit chains. In another project, we have been looking at month-by-month school attendance, grade level completion, and graduation for children in these villages, following them from birth to graduation. The Townsend Thai project is a theory-based data collection endeavor, measuring and mapping village and larger economies into general equilibrium frameworks. This paper reviews a number of findings, implications, applications, and lessons learned, and considers next steps.
Journal Article
Economic development, flow of funds, and the equilibrium interaction of financial frictions
We use a variety of different datasets from Thailand to study not only the extremes of micro and macro variables but also within-country flow of funds and labor migration. We develop a general equilibrium model that encompasses regional variation in the type of financial friction and calibrate it to measured variation in regional aggregates. The model predicts substantial capital and labor flows from rural to urban areas even though these differ only in the underlying financial regime. Predictions for micro variables not used directly provide a model validation. Finally, we estimate the impact of a policy of counterfactual, regional isolationism.
Journal Article
The Great Equalizer: Health Care Access and Infant Mortality in Thailand
This paper analyzes Thailand's 2001 healthcare reform, \"30 Baht.\" The program increased funding available to hospitals to care for the poor and reduced copays to 30 Baht (~$0.75). Our estimates suggest the supply-side funding of the program increased healthcare utilization, especially among the poor. Moreover, we find significant impacts on infant mortality. Prior to 30 Baht, poorer provinces had significantly higher infant mortality rates than richer provinces. After 30 Baht, this correlation evaporates to zero. The results suggest that increased access to healthcare among the poor can significantly reduce their infant mortality rates.
Journal Article
A Structural Evaluation of a Large-Scale Quasi-Experimental Microfinance Initiative
This paper uses a structural model to understand, predict, and evaluate the impact of an exogenous microcredit intervention program, the Thai Million Baht Village Fund program. We model household decisions in the face of borrowing constraints, income uncertainty, and high-yield indivisible investment opportunities. After estimation of parameters using preprogram data, we evaluate the model's ability to predict and interpret the impact of the village fund intervention. Simulations from the model mirror the data in yielding a greater increase in consumption than credit, which is interpreted as evidence of credit constraints. A cost-benefit analysis using the model indicates that some households value the program much more than its per household cost, but overall the program costs 30 percent more than the sum of these benefits.
Journal Article
