Explore the vast range of titles available.

The relationship between age and seroprevalence can be used to estimate the annual attack rate of an infectious disease. For pathogens with multiple serologically distinct strains, there is a need to describe composite exposure to an antigenically variable group of pathogens. In this study, we assay 24,402 general-population serum samples, collected in Vietnam between 2009 to 2015, for antibodies to eleven human influenza A strains. We report that a principal components decomposition of antibody titer data gives the first principal component as an appropriate surrogate for seroprevalence; this results in annual attack rate estimates of 25.6% (95% CI: 24.1% – 27.1%) for subtype H3 and 16.0% (95% CI: 14.7% – 17.3%) for subtype H1. The remaining principal components separate the strains by serological similarity and associate birth cohorts with their particular influenza histories. Our work shows that dimensionality reduction can be used on human antibody profiles to construct an age-seroprevalence relationship for antigenically variable pathogens. Multi-strain pathogens, such as influenza, present challenges for interpretation of seroprevalence data as estimates may vary by strain. Here, the authors develop a method for estimating age-specific seroprevalence based on principal components analysis and apply it to influenza data from Vietnam.

Increasing levels of artemisinin and partner drug resistance threaten malaria control and elimination globally. Triple artemisinin-based combination therapies (TACTs) which combine artemisinin derivatives with two partner drugs are efficacious and well tolerated in clinical trials, including in areas of multidrug-resistant malaria. Whether early TACT adoption could delay the emergence and spread of antimalarial drug resistance is a question of vital importance. Using two independent individual-based models of Plasmodium falciparum epidemiology and evolution, we evaluated whether introduction of either artesunate-mefloquine-piperaquine or artemether-lumefantrine-amodiaquine resulted in lower long-term artemisinin-resistance levels and treatment failure rates compared with continued ACT use. We show that introduction of TACTs could significantly delay the emergence and spread of artemisinin resistance and treatment failure, extending the useful therapeutic life of current antimalarial drugs, and improving the chances of malaria elimination. We conclude that immediate introduction of TACTs should be considered by policy makers in areas of emerging artemisinin resistance. Triple artemisinin-based combination therapies have shown high efficacy for treatment of malaria in preliminary studies. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to assess whether these therapies could also delay the emergence and spread of antimalarial drug resistance when compared against frontline therapies.

Delaying and slowing antimalarial drug resistance evolution is a priority for malaria-endemic countries. Until novel therapies become available, the mainstay of antimalarial treatment will continue to be artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). Deployment of different ACTs can be optimized to minimize evolutionary pressure for drug resistance by deploying them as a set of co-equal multiple first-line therapies (MFT) rather than rotating therapies in and out of use. Here, we consider one potential detriment of MFT policies, namely, that the simultaneous deployment of multiple ACTs could drive the evolution of different resistance alleles concurrently and that these resistance alleles could then be brought together by recombination into double-resistant or triple-resistant parasites. Using an individual-based model, we compare MFT and cycling policies in malaria transmission settings ranging from 0.1% to 50% prevalence. We define a total risk measure for multi-drug resistance (MDR) by summing the area under the genotype-frequency curves (AUC) of double- and triple-resistant genotypes. When prevalence ≥ 1%, total MDR risk ranges from statistically similar to 80% lower under MFT policies than under cycling policies, irrespective of whether resistance is imported or emerges de novo. At 0.1% prevalence, there is little statistical difference in MDR risk between MFT and cycling. Emergence of malaria parasites resistant to artemisinin has prompted the need for new drug regimens to ensure effective treatment. In this simulation study, the authors evaluate the risk of multidrug resistance under regimens with either concurrent or cyclic use of different first-line therapies.

When multiple beneficial alleles at multiple loci are present in a population but not linked together in any one individual, there is no general evolutionary result that determines whether recombination will speed up or slow down the emergence and evolution of genotypes carrying multiple beneficial alleles. Translated to infectious disease control, this evolutionary uncertainty means that when multiple types of drug resistance are present we do not know whether recombination will act more strongly to (1) bring together single-resistant genotypes into multi-drug resistant (MDR) genotypes, or (2) break apart MDR genotypes into single-resistant genotypes. In this paper, we introduce a new version of an established and validated individual-based malaria transmission model where we have added 25 drug-resistance related loci, individual mosquito bites, and mosquitoes feeding on multiple hosts in a single meal (interrupted feeds) allowing for recombination events of different Plasmodium falciparum genotypes from different hosts. Recombination among P. falciparum genotypes in this model occurs from two sources of variation, multi-clonal infections in single hosts and interrupted feeds on multiple hosts, and we show that 80% to 97% of MDR recombinant falciparum genotypes are projected to occur from single uninterrupted bites on hosts with multi-clonal infections (for malaria prevalence > 5%). Increases in the model’s interrupted feeding rate slowly increase the number of recombination events occurring from interrupted feeds. A comparison of drug-resistance management strategies with this new model shows that, over a 15-year timeframe, triple artemisinin-combination therapies (ACT) strategies show the largest reductions in treatment failures and the longest delays until artemisinin resistance reaches a critical 1% threshold. Multiple first-line therapies (MFT) are second best under these criteria, and ACT cycling approaches are third best. When compared to cycling strategies, MFT strategies generate a greater diversity of recombinant genotypes but fewer recombination events generating MDR and slower emergence of these recombinant MDR genotypes.

Coral reefs are well known for their diversity and value, providing habitats for a third of marine species within just 0.2% of the ocean. However, these natural habitats face significant threats and degradation, leading to unresolved issues related to coral loss inventory, coral protection, and the implementation of long-term conservation policies. In this study, we examined two decades of changes in coral spatial distribution within the Nha Trang Bay Marine Protected Area (MPA) using remote sensing and machine learning (ML) approaches. We identified various factors contributing to coral reef loss and analyzed the effectiveness of management policies over the past 20 years. By employing the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) and Deep Forest (DF) models on Landsat (2002, κ = 0.83, F1 = 0.85) and Planet (2016, κ = 0.89, F1 = 0.82; 2024, κ = 0.92, F1 = 0.86) images, we achieved high confidence in our inventory of coral changes. Our findings revealed that 191.38 hectares of coral disappeared from Nha Trang Bay MPA between 2002 and 2024. The 8-year period from 2016 to 2024 saw a loss of 66.32 hectares, which is in linear approximation to the 125.06 hectares lost during the 14-year period from 2002 to 2016. It is concluded that the key factors contributing to coral loss include land-use dynamics, global warming, and the impact of starfish. To address these challenges, we propose next a modern community-based management paradigm to enhance the conservation of existing coral reefs and protect potential habitats within Nha Trang Bay MPA.

Malaria due to the Plasmodium falciparum parasite remains a threat to human health despite eradication efforts and the development of anti-malarial treatments, such as artemisinin combination therapies. Human movement and migration have been linked to the propagation of malaria on national scales, highlighting the need for the incorporation of human movement in modeling efforts. Spatially couped individual-based models have been used to study how anti-malarial resistance evolves and spreads in response to drug policy changes; however, as the spatial scale of the model increases, the challenges associated with modeling of movement also increase. In this paper we discuss the development, calibration, and validation of a movement model in the context of a national-scale, spatial, individual-based model used to study the evolution of drug resistance in the malaria parasite.

Background Despite the well-documented clinical efficacy of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) against malaria, the population-level effects of ACT have not been studied thoroughly until recently. An ideal case study for these population-level effects can be found in Vietnam’s gradual adoption of artemisinin in the 1990s. Methods and results Analysis of Vietnam’s national annual malaria reports (1991–2014) revealed that a 10% increase in artemisinin procurement corresponded to a 32.8% (95% CI 27.7–37.5%) decline in estimated malaria cases. There was no consistent national or regional effect of vector control on malaria. The association between urbanization and malaria was generally negative and sometimes statistically significant. Conclusions The decline of malaria in Vietnam can largely be attributed to the adoption of artemisinin-based case management. Recent analyses from Africa showed that insecticide-treated nets had the greatest effect on lowering malaria prevalence, suggesting that the success of interventions is region-specific. Continuing malaria elimination efforts should focus on both vector control and increased access to ACT.

To date, little is known about the initial spread and response to the 2009 pandemic of novel influenza A (\"2009 H1N1\") in tropical countries. Here, we analyse the early progression of the epidemic from 26 May 2009 until the establishment of community transmission in the second half of July 2009 in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam. In addition, we present detailed systematic viral clearance data on 292 isolated and treated patients and the first three cases of selection of resistant virus during treatment in Vietnam. Data sources included all available health reports from the Ministry of Health and relevant health authorities as well as clinical and laboratory data from the first confirmed cases isolated at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in HCMC. Extensive reverse transcription (RT)-PCR diagnostics on serial samples, viral culture, neuraminidase-inhibition testing, and sequencing were performed on a subset of 2009 H1N1 confirmed cases. Virological (PCR status, shedding) and epidemiological (incidence, isolation, discharge) data were combined to reconstruct the initial outbreak and the establishment of community transmission. From 27 April to 24 July 2009, approximately 760,000 passengers who entered HCMC on international flights were screened at the airport by a body temperature scan and symptom questionnaire. Approximately 0.15% of incoming passengers were intercepted, 200 of whom tested positive for 2009 H1N1 by RT-PCR. An additional 121 out of 169 nontravelers tested positive after self-reporting or contact tracing. These 321 patients spent 79% of their PCR-positive days in isolation; 60% of PCR-positive days were spent treated and in isolation. Influenza-like illness was noted in 61% of patients and no patients experienced pneumonia or severe outcomes. Viral clearance times were similar among patient groups with differing time intervals from illness onset to treatment, with estimated median clearance times between 2.6 and 2.8 d post-treatment for illness-to-treatment intervals of 1-4 d, and 2.0 d (95% confidence interval 1.5-2.5) when treatment was started on the first day of illness. The patients described here represent a cross-section of infected individuals that were identified by temperature screening and symptom questionnaires at the airport, as well as mildly symptomatic to moderately ill patients who self-reported to hospitals. Data are observational and, although they are suggestive, it is not possible to be certain whether the containment efforts delayed community transmission in Vietnam. Viral clearance data assessed by RT-PCR showed a rapid therapeutic response to oseltamivir.

Background The number of Plasmodium falciparum malaria cases around the world has decreased substantially over the last 15 years, but with the spread of resistance against anti-malarial drugs and insecticides, this decline may not continue. There is an urgent need to consider alternative, accelerated strategies to eliminate malaria in countries like Lao PDR, where there are a few remaining endemic areas. A deterministic compartmental modelling tool was used to develop an integrated strategy for P. falciparum elimination in the Savannakhet province of Lao PDR. The model was designed to include key aspects of malaria transmission and integrated control measures, along with a user-friendly interface. Results Universal coverage was the foundation of the integrated strategy, which took the form of the deployment of community health workers who provided universal access to early diagnosis, treatment and long-lasting insecticidal nets. Acceleration was included as the deployment of three monthly rounds of mass drug administration targeted towards high prevalence villages, with the addition of three monthly doses of the RTS,S vaccine delivered en masse to the same high prevalence sub-population. A booster dose of vaccine was added 1 year later. The surveillance-as-intervention component of the package involved the screening and treatment of individuals entering the simulated population. Conclusions In this modelling approach, the sequential introduction of a series of five available interventions in an integrated strategy was predicted to be sufficient to stop malaria transmission within a 3-year period. These interventions comprised universal access to early diagnosis and adequate treatment, improved access to long-lasting insecticidal nets, three monthly rounds of mass drug administration together with RTS,S vaccination followed by a booster dose of vaccine, and screening and treatment of imported cases.

The pigment chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) is used to evaluate aquatic ecological health. Using remote sensing techniques to estimate this pigment and spatially mapping its distribution becomes essential for measuring and assessing water quality in coastal areas. Nha Trang Bay is famous not only for its scenery but also for its biodiversity values, especially the existence of coral reefs. In this study, Landsat-8 OLI was taken on June 3, 2015, and field measurements of Chl-a at 13 survey sites from June 6-8, 2015, were used to build a local algorithm to monitor the spatio-temporal distribution of Chl-a content in Nha Trang Bay. The ACOLITE processor was employed for the atmospheric modification of Landsat-8 OLI images to obtain atmospherically corrected surface reflectance products. Four types of simple regression models, including linear, exponential, logarithmic, and power models, were used to describe the relationship between the in-situ measurement of Chl-a and remote sensing reflectance of Landsat-8 OLI data. The results of correlation analysis have shown a statistically significant relationship between field measurement of Chl-a concentration and the remote sensing reflectance ratio of Landsat-8 band 3 versus band 2 using an exponential model with a coefficient of determination of 0.88 (p < 0.001) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.40 mg/m 3 . This empirical relationship was applied to map the spatial distribution of Chl-a concentration from 27 cloudless Landsat-8 OLI images from 2013 to 2021. The spatio-temporal distribution of Chl-a indicated that the Chl-a concentration in the Bay has a low value (less than 1 mg/m 3 ). However, this concentration becomes high in the coastal areas (greater than 1 mg/m 3 ) and the Cai and Tac rivers (greater than 2 mg/m 3 ). It is also noted that the content of Chl-a in the rainy season is fairly higher than in the dry season, by an average of 0.68 mg/m 3 and 0.53 mg/m 3 , respectively. This research highlights that Landsat-8 OLI data can be an effective and valuable tool in monitoring Chl-a for coastal areas.