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13 result(s) for "Trenham, Claire"
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Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections
Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.
A global ensemble of ocean wave climate projections from CMIP5-driven models
This dataset, produced through the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP) phase 2, represents the first coordinated multivariate ensemble of 21st Century global wind-wave climate projections available (henceforth COWCLIP2.0). COWCLIP2.0 comprises general and extreme statistics of significant wave height (HS), mean wave period (Tm), and mean wave direction (θm) computed over time-slices 1979-2004 and 2081-2100, at different frequency resolutions (monthly, seasonally and annually). The full ensemble comprising 155 global wave climate simulations is obtained from ten CMIP5-based state-of-the-art wave climate studies and provides data derived from alternative windwave downscaling methods, and different climate-model forcing and future emissions scenarios. The data has been produced, and processed, under a specific framework for consistency and quality, and follows CMIP5 Data Reference Syntax, Directory structures, and Metadata requirements. Technical comparison of model skill against 26 years of global satellite measurements of significant wave height has been undertaken at global and regional scales. This new dataset provides support for future broad scale coastal hazard and vulnerability assessments and climate adaptation studies in many offshore and coastal engineering applications.
An 8-model ensemble of CMIP6-derived ocean surface wave climate
We present a global wind wave climate model ensemble composed of eight spectral wave model simulations forced by 3-hourly surface wind speed and daily sea ice concentration from eight different CMIP6 GCMs. The spectral wave model uses ST6 physics parametrizations and a global three-grid structure for efficient Arctic and Antarctic wave modeling. The ensemble performance is evaluated against a reference global multi-mission satellite altimeter database and the recent ECMWF IFS Cy46r1 ERA5 wave hindcast, ERA5H. For each ensemble member three 30-year slices, one historical, and two future emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) are available, and cover two distinct periods: 1985–2014 and 2071–2100. Two models extend to 140 years (1961–2100) of continuous wind wave climate simulations. The present ensemble outperforms a previous CMIP5-forced wind wave climate ensemble, showing improved performance across all ocean regions. This dataset is a valuable resource for future wind wave climate research and can find practical applications in offshore and coastal engineering projects, providing crucial insights into the uncertainties connected to wind wave climate future projections.
Global wave hindcast with Australian and Pacific Island Focus: From past to present
Wind‐wave hindcast data have many applications including climatology assessments for renewable energy projects, maritime engineering design, event‐based impact assessments, generating boundary conditions for further downscaling, amongst others. Here, we present a global wave hindcast with nested high‐resolution grids for the Exclusive Economic Zones of Australia and south west Pacific Island Countries, that is extended in time monthly. The model employs strategic methods to incorporate the effects of subgrid sized features such as small islands and islets. Various bulk wave parameters are available hourly from January 1979 to present, along with the full wave spectra at a set of 3,683 predetermined points distributed globally. Wind‐wave hindcast data have many applications including for renewable energy projects, maritime engineering design, impact assessments and producing boundary conditions for coastal models to better simulate the waves approaching the shore like shown in the image. Here, we present a global wave hindcast with nested high‐resolution grids for Australia and south west Pacific Island Countries, that spans from 1,079 to present, updated monthly. The model employs strategic methods to incorporate the effects of subgrid sized features such as small islands and islets.
Implementation of FAIR principles in the IPCC: the WGI AR6 Atlas repository
The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has adopted the FAIR Guiding Principles. We present the Atlas chapter of Working Group I (WGI) as a test case. We describe the application of the FAIR principles in the Atlas, the challenges faced during its implementation, and those that remain for the future. We introduce the open source repository resulting from this process, including coding (e.g., annotated Jupyter notebooks), data provenance, and some aggregated datasets used in some figures in the Atlas chapter and its interactive companion (the Interactive Atlas), open to scrutiny by the scientific community and the general public. We describe the informal pilot review conducted on this repository to gather recommendations that led to significant improvements. Finally, a working example illustrates the re-use of the repository resources to produce customized regional information, extending the Interactive Atlas products and running the code interactively in a web browser using Jupyter notebooks.
Forging a path to a better normal for conferences and collaboration
The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic forced a string of cancelled conferences, causing many organizers to shift meetings online, with mixed success. Seizing the opportunity, a group of researchers came together to rethink how the conference experience and collaboration in general can be improved in a more virtual-centric future.
140 Years of Global Ocean Wind-Wave Climate Derived from CMIP6 ACCESS-CM2 and EC-Earth3 GCMs
We present four 140-yr wind-wave climate simulations (1961–2100) forced with surface wind speed and sea ice concentration from two CMIP6 GCMs under two different climate scenarios: SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5. A global three-grid system is implemented in WAVEWATCH III to simulate the wave–ice interactions in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. The models perform well in comparison with global satellite altimeter and in situ buoys climatology. The comparison with traditional trend analyses demonstrates the present GCM-forced wave models’ ability to reproduce the main historical climate signals. The long-term datasets allow a comprehensive description of the twentieth- and twenty-first-century wave climate and yield statistically robust trends. Analysis of the latest IPCC ocean climatic regions highlights four regions where changes in wave climate are projected to be most significant: the Arctic, the North Pacific, the North Atlantic, and the Southern Ocean. The main driver of offshore wave climate change is the wind, except for the Arctic where the significant sea ice retreat causes a sharp increase in the projected wave heights. Distinct changes in the wave period and the wave direction are found in the Southern Hemisphere, where the poleward shift of the Southern Ocean westerlies causes an increase in the wave period of up to 5% and a counterclockwise change in wave direction of up to 5°. The new CMIP6 forced wave models improve in performance compared to previous CMIP5 forced wave models, and will ultimately contribute to a new CMIP6 wind-wave climate model ensemble, crucial for coastal adaptation strategies and the design of future marine offshore structures and operations.
WHACS: An Improved Global Wave Hindcast for the Australian Climate Service
A multi-decadal global wind-wave hindcast dataset—WHACS: the Wave Hindcast for ACS—spanning 1979 to near present was developed to offer insight into historical wave conditions both directly and as boundary forcing to localised simulations. Applications for WHACS include coastal management, climate research, and renewable energy projects, ultimately helping communities and industries make informed decisions to improve safety, efficiency, and resilience regarding wave conditions. This dataset features a near-global spherical multi-cell (SMC) grid that aligns with the Bureau operational wave forecast model and has been calibrated to better represent extreme wave conditions by improving the representation of extreme winds. Spanning from 1979 to near present, WHACS available output consists of multiple hourly bulk and spectral partition wave parameters for the native SMC grid, as well as regular global and regional regridded bulk wave parameters. For the Indo-Pacific, a gridded output of full spectral data is available across exclusive economic zones.
A GLOBAL REPOSITORY FOR PLANET-SIZED EXPERIMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS
Working across U.S. federal agencies, international agencies, and multiple worldwide data centers, and spanning seven international network organizations, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) allows users to access, analyze, and visualize data using a globally federated collection of networks, computers, and software. Its architecture employs a system of geographically distributed peer nodes that are independently administered yet united by common federation protocols and application programming interfaces (APIs). The full ESGF infrastructure has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)—output used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports. Data served by ESGF not only include model output (i.e., CMIP simulation runs) but also include observational data from satellites and instruments, reanalyses, and generated images. Metadata summarize basic information about the data for fast and easy data discovery.