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East Africa has experienced a number of devastating droughts in recent decades, including the 2010/2011 drought. The National Drought Management Authority in Kenya relies on real-time information from MODIS satellites to monitor and respond to emerging drought conditions in the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya. Providing accurate and timely information on vegetation conditions and health—and its probable near-term future evolution—is essential for minimising the risk of drought conditions evolving into disasters as the country’s herders directly rely on the conditions of grasslands. Methods from the field of machine learning are increasingly being used in hydrology, meteorology, and climatology. One particular method that has shown promise for rainfall-runoff modelling is the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network. In this study, we seek to test two LSTM architectures for vegetation health forecasting. We find that these models provide sufficiently accurate forecasts to be useful for drought monitoring and forecasting purposes, showing competitive performances with lower resolution ensemble methods and improved performances over a shallow neural network and a persistence baseline.

Satellite Earth observations (EO) can provide affordable and timely information for assessing crop conditions and food production. Such monitoring systems are essential in Africa, where food insecurity is high and agricultural statistics are sparse. EO-based monitoring systems require accurate cropland maps to provide information about croplands, but there is a lack of data to determine which of the many available land cover maps most accurately identify cropland in African countries. This study provides a quantitative evaluation and intercomparison of 11 publicly available land cover maps to assess their suitability for cropland classification and EO-based agriculture monitoring in Africa using statistically rigorous reference datasets from 8 countries. We hope the results of this study will help users determine the most suitable map for their needs and encourage future work to focus on resolving inconsistencies between maps and improving accuracy in low-accuracy regions.

Satellite Earth observations (EO) can provide affordable and timely information for assessing crop conditions and food production. Such monitoring systems are essential in Africa, where there is high food insecurity and sparse agricultural statistics. EO-based monitoring systems require accurate cropland maps to provide information about croplands, but there is a lack of data to determine which of the many available land cover maps most accurately identify cropland in African countries. This study provides a quantitative evaluation and intercomparison of 11 publicly available land cover maps to assess their suitability for cropland classification and EO-based agriculture monitoring in Africa using statistically rigorous reference datasets from 8 countries. We hope the results of this study will help users determine the most suitable map for their needs and encourage future work to focus on resolving inconsistencies between maps and improving accuracy in low-accuracy regions.

Accurate and up-to-date land cover maps are essential for understanding land use change, a key driver of climate change. Geospatial embeddings offer a more efficient and accessible way to map landscape features, yet their use in real-world mapping applications remains underexplored. In this work, we evaluated the utility of geospatial embeddings for cropland mapping in Togo. We produced cropland maps using embeddings from Presto and AlphaEarth. Our findings show that geospatial embeddings can simplify workflows, achieve high-accuracy cropland classification and ultimately support better assessments of land use change and its climate impacts.

Previous studies showed that image datasets lacking geographic diversity can lead to biased performance in models trained on them. While earlier work studied general-purpose image datasets (e.g., ImageNet) and simple tasks like image recognition, we investigated geo-biases in real-world driving datasets on a more complex task: instance segmentation. We examined if instance segmentation models trained on European driving scenes (Eurocentric models) are geo-biased. Consistent with previous work, we found that Eurocentric models were geo-biased. Interestingly, we found that geo-biases came from classification errors rather than localization errors, with classification errors alone contributing 10-90% of the geo-biases in segmentation and 19-88% of the geo-biases in detection. This showed that while classification is geo-biased, localization (including detection and segmentation) is geographically robust. Our findings show that in region-specific models (e.g., Eurocentric models), geo-biases from classification errors can be significantly mitigated by using coarser classes (e.g., grouping car, bus, and truck as 4-wheeler).

Geospatial foundation models (GFMs) have been proposed as generalizable backbones for disaster response, land-cover mapping, food-security monitoring, and other high-stakes Earth-observation tasks. Yet the published work about these models does not give reviewers or users enough information to tell which model fits a given task. We argue that nobody knows what the current state of the art is in geospatial foundation models. The methods may be useful, but the GFM literature does not standardize evaluations, training and testing protocols, released weights, or pretraining controls well enough for anyone to compare or rank them. In a 152-paper audit, we find 46 cross-paper disagreements of at least 10 points for the same model, benchmark, and protocol; 94/126 papers with extractable pretraining data use a configuration no other paper uses; and 39% of GFM papers release no model weights. This lack of community standards can be solved. We propose six concrete expectations: named-license weight release, shared core evaluations, copied-versus-rerun baseline annotations, variance reporting, one shared evaluation harness, and data-vs-architecture-vs-algorithm controls. These gaps are a coordination failure, not a fault of any individual lab; the authors of this paper, like many others in the GFM community, have contributed to them. Rather than just critiquing the community, we aim to provide concrete steps toward a shared understanding of how to innovate GFMs.

Labeled datasets for agriculture are extremely spatially imbalanced. When developing algorithms for data-sparse regions, a natural approach is to use transfer learning from data-rich regions. While standard transfer learning approaches typically leverage only direct inputs and outputs, geospatial imagery and agricultural data are rich in metadata that can inform transfer learning algorithms, such as the spatial coordinates of data-points or the class of task being learned. We build on previous work exploring the use of meta-learning for agricultural contexts in data-sparse regions and introduce task-informed meta-learning (TIML), an augmentation to model-agnostic meta-learning which takes advantage of task-specific metadata. We apply TIML to crop type classification and yield estimation, and find that TIML significantly improves performance compared to a range of benchmarks in both contexts, across a diversity of model architectures. While we focus on tasks from agriculture, TIML could offer benefits to any meta-learning setup with task-specific metadata, such as classification of geo-tagged images and species distribution modelling.

Wildfires are increasing in intensity and severity at an alarming rate. Recent advances in AI and publicly available satellite data enable monitoring critical wildfire risk factors globally, at high resolution and low latency. Live Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC) is a critical wildfire risk factor and is valuable for both wildfire research and operational response. However, ground-based LFMC samples are both labor intensive and costly to acquire, resulting in sparse and infrequent updates. In this work, we explore the use of a pretrained, highly-multimodal earth-observation model for generating large-scale spatially complete (wall-to-wall) LFMC maps. Our approach achieves significant improvements over previous methods using randomly initialized models (20 reduction in RMSE). We provide an automated pipeline that enables rapid generation of these LFMC maps across the United States, and demonstrate its effectiveness in two regions recently impacted by wildfire (Eaton and Palisades).

The increasing availability of geospatial foundation models has the potential to transform remote sensing applications such as land cover classification, environmental monitoring, and change detection. Despite promising benchmark results, the deployment of these models in operational settings is challenging and rare. Standardized evaluation tasks often fail to capture real-world complexities relevant for end-user adoption such as data heterogeneity, resource constraints, and application-specific requirements. This paper presents a structured approach to integrate geospatial foundation models into operational mapping systems. Our protocol has three key steps: defining application requirements, adapting the model to domain-specific data and conducting rigorous empirical testing. Using the Presto model in a case study for crop mapping, we demonstrate that fine-tuning a pre-trained model significantly improves performance over conventional supervised methods. Our results highlight the model's strong spatial and temporal generalization capabilities. Our protocol provides a replicable blueprint for practitioners and lays the groundwork for future research to operationalize foundation models in diverse remote sensing applications. Application of the protocol to the WorldCereal global crop-mapping system showcases the framework's scalability.

We present a set of improvements to the OlmoEarth family. These improvements allow us to cut compute costs during training (\\(1.7 \\) reduction in GPU hours required to train our Base models) and inference (\\(2.9\\) reductions in MACs on Sentinel-2 tasks), while maintaining the models' overall performance. All training code is available at github.com/allenai/olmoearth_pretrain.