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Achieving sustainability in the Anthropocene requires radical changes to how human societies operate. The Seeds of Good Anthropocenes (SOGA) project has identified a diverse set of existing initiatives, called “seeds,” that have the potential to catalyze transformations toward more sustainable pathways. However, the empirical investigation of factors and conditions that enable successful sustainability transformations across multiple cases has been scarce. Building on a review of existing theoretical and empirical research, we developed a theoretical framework for assessing three features identified as important to transformative potential of innovative social-ecological initiatives: (1) learning practices, (2) empowerment, and (3) networking. We applied this framework to a set of African-led and Africa-related initiatives that we selected from the SOGA database that were divided into initiatives with more or less transformative potential. We coded the presence or absence of features relating to the theoretical framework using secondary data, and then compared the initiatives using qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). This analysis revealed that of the three features tested, Networking emerged as the most important feature for transformative potential when compared amongst cases. By developing and testing a framework for the comparison of cases we provide a basis for future comparative work to further identify and test properties of cases that enable transformation.

Estuarine environments are recognized as critical nursery habitats that are necessary to sustain overall fish production. Striped bass Morone saxatilis support recreational and commercial fisheries along the Atlantic coast of the United States, and annual surveys to assess juvenile (age-0) abundance in Chesapeake Bay, the major producing area for the population, have long been used in management. Factors that contribute to high juvenile abundance are not fully understood. We used catch data from fishery-independent surveys coupled with hindcasts from a pair of numerical models to quantify the extent of summer habitats used by age-0 striped bass throughout Chesapeake Bay for 1996–2017. Specific conditions that defined habitat suitability for age-0 striped bass varied throughout the summer and among years, reflecting changes in water quality and habitat use. Shallow, nearshore areas throughout the Bay consistently supported suitable conditions for age-0 striped bass, but the estimated extent of suitable habitat varied annually at both regional and local, tributary-specific, scales. Although the areal extent of suitable habitat Bay-wide in early summer declined since 1996, fish production was not limited. Nonetheless, a pattern of increasing relative abundance of age-0 striped bass with greater extent of suitable habitats in Chesapeake Bay was observed, suggesting that the availability of suitable habitats at the scale of individual tributaries and Bay-wide may play an important role in production of this estuarine-dependent species.

The sustained production of sufficient forage is critical to advancing ecosystem-based management, yet factors that affect local abundances and habitat conditions necessary to support aggregate forage production remain largely unexplored. We quantified suitable habitat in the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries for four key forage fishes: juvenile spotted hake Urophycis regia , juvenile spot Leiostomus xanthurus , juvenile weakfish Cynoscion regalis , and bay anchovy Anchoa mitchilli . We used information from monthly fisheries surveys from 2000 to 2016 coupled with hindcasts from a spatially interpolated model of dissolved oxygen and a 3-D hydrodynamic model of the Chesapeake Bay to identify influential covariates and construct habitat suitability models for each species. Suitable habitat conditions resulted from a complex interplay between water quality and geophysical properties of the environment and varied among species. Habitat suitability indices ranging between 0 (poor) and 1 (superior) were used to estimate seasonal and annual extents of suitable habitats. Seasonal variations in suitable habitat extents in Chesapeake Bay, which were more pronounced than annual variations during 2000–2016, reflected the phenology of estuarine use by these species. Areas near shorelines served as suitable habitats in spring for juvenile spot and in summer for juvenile weakfish, indicating the importance of these shallow areas for production. Tributaries were more suitable for bay anchovy in spring than during other seasons. The relative baywide abundances of juvenile spot and bay anchovy were significantly related to the extent of suitable habitats in summer and winter, respectively, indicating that Chesapeake Bay habitats may be limiting for these species. In contrast, the relative baywide abundances of juvenile weakfish and juvenile spotted hake varied independently of the spatial extent of suitable habitats. In an ecosystem-based approach, areas that persistently provide suitable conditions for forage species such as shoreline and tributary habitats may be targeted for protection or restoration, thereby promoting sufficient production of forage for predators. Further, quantitative habitat targets or spatial thresholds may be developed for habitat-limited species using estimates of the minimum habitat area required to produce a desired abundance or biomass; such targets or thresholds may serve as spatial reference points for management.