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Observed SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths are low in tropical Africa raising questions about the extent of transmission. We measured SARS-CoV-2 IgG by ELISA in 9,922 blood donors across Kenya and adjusted for sampling bias and test performance. By 1st September 2020, 577 COVID-19 deaths were observed nationwide and seroprevalence was 9.1% (95%CI 7.6-10.8%). Seroprevalence in Nairobi was 22.7% (18.0-27.7%). Although most people remained susceptible, SARS-CoV-2 had spread widely in Kenya with apparently low associated mortality. The reported burden of SARS-CoV-2 has been relatively low in tropical Africa compared to Europe and the Americas, but estimating true infection rates is challenging. Here, the authors screen blood donors in Kenya for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and describe spatiotemporal seroprevalence dynamics.

The high proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections that have remained undetected presents a challenge to tracking the progress of the pandemic and estimating the extent of population immunity. We used residual blood samples from women attending antenatal care services at three hospitals in Kenya between August 2020 and October 2021and a validated IgG ELISA for SARS-Cov-2 spike protein and adjusted the results for assay sensitivity and specificity. We fitted a two-component mixture model as an alternative to the threshold analysis to estimate of the proportion of individuals with past SARS-CoV-2 infection. We estimated seroprevalence in 2,981 women; 706 in Nairobi, 567 in Busia and 1,708 in Kilifi. By October 2021, 13% of participants were vaccinated (at least one dose) in Nairobi, 2% in Busia. Adjusted seroprevalence rose in all sites; from 50% (95%CI 42-58) in August 2020, to 85% (95%CI 78-92) in October 2021 in Nairobi; from 31% (95%CI 25-37) in May 2021 to 71% (95%CI 64-77) in October 2021 in Busia; and from 1% (95% CI 0-3) in September 2020 to 63% (95% CI 56-69) in October 2021 in Kilifi. Mixture modelling, suggests adjusted cross-sectional prevalence estimates are underestimates; seroprevalence in October 2021 could be 74% in Busia and 72% in Kilifi. There has been substantial, unobserved transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Nairobi, Busia and Kilifi Counties. Due to the length of time since the beginning of the pandemic, repeated cross-sectional surveys are now difficult to interpret without the use of models to account for antibody waning.

Measles outbreaks continue to cause a large burden of disease in Africa including Kenya. We used information from regular serological surveys in Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) in combination with mathematical modelling to estimate the relative contribution of the vaccination programme to current measles immunity. We developed a static birth cohort model to track the proportion of children who are either measles naïve or seroconverted due to natural infection or vaccination through first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1), the second dose (MCV2), or supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs). We fitted the model to biennial paediatric serological survey and case notification data and used vaccination coverage estimates from the KHDSS to estimate the relative contributions of vaccination and infection to measles immunity in Kilifi. We estimated that between 2009 and 2021, 60% (95%CI 55-64%) of measles seroconversion in Kilifi was attributable to MCV1, with MCV2 contributing 1.0% (95%CI 0.9-1.1%) since its introduction. Natural infection and SIAs accounted for 24% (95%CI 17-31%) and 16% (95%CI 14-19%), respectively. A hypothetical 10% increase in MCV1 coverage increased the seroconversion attributed to MCV1 to 67% (95%CI 63-71%), with concurrent reductions in seroconversion from natural infection and SIAs to 13% (95%CI 9-18%) and 10% (95%CI 9-12%), respectively. Importantly, this same 10% increase in MCV1, if administered promptly at 9 months, could potentially reduce seroconversion from natural infection further from 24% to 11% (95%CI 07-15%) and reliance on SIAs from 16% to 8% (95% CI 7-10%). Optimizing routine coverage timing and uptake is crucial for reducing SIAs dependence and measles susceptibility. A 10% MCV1 coverage increase could have halved susceptibility and lessened SIA demand, highlighting the potential of minor improvements in coverage to alleviate measles and reduce costly SIAs.

Ring-infected erythrocytes are the predominant asexual stage in the peripheral circulation but are rarely investigated in the context of acquired immunity against Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Here we compare antibody-dependent phagocytosis of ring-infected parasite cultures in samples from a controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) study (NCT02739763). Protected volunteers did not develop clinical symptoms, maintained parasitaemia below a predefined threshold of 500 parasites/μl and were not treated until the end of the study. Antibody-dependent phagocytosis of both ring-infected and uninfected erythrocytes from parasite cultures was strongly correlated with protection. A surface proteomic analysis revealed the presence of merozoite proteins including erythrocyte binding antigen-175 and −140 on ring-infected and uninfected erythrocytes, providing an additional antibody-mediated protective mechanism for their activity beyond invasion-inhibition. Competition phagocytosis assays support the hypothesis that merozoite antigens are the key mediators of this functional activity. Targeting ring-stage parasites may contribute to the control of parasitaemia and prevention of clinical malaria. Here the authors show that antibody-dependent phagocytosis of ring-stage P. falciparum parasites is mediated by merozoite antigens and is a strong predictor of protection following challenge in a controlled human malaria infection study in semi-immune Kenyan adults.

Strengthening malaria surveillance is a key intervention needed to reduce the global disease burden. Reliable serological markers of recent malaria exposure could improve current surveillance methods by allowing for accurate estimates of infection incidence from limited data. We studied the IgG antibody response to 111 Plasmodium falciparum proteins in 65 adult travellers followed longitudinally after a natural malaria infection in complete absence of re-exposure. We identified a combination of five serological markers that detect exposure within the previous three months with >80% sensitivity and specificity. Using mathematical modelling, we examined the antibody kinetics and determined that responses informative of recent exposure display several distinct characteristics: rapid initial boosting and decay, less inter-individual variation in response kinetics, and minimal persistence over time. Such serological exposure markers could be incorporated into routine malaria surveillance to guide efforts for malaria control and elimination. Serological markers of recent Plasmodium falciparum infection could be useful to estimate incidence. Here, the authors identify a combination of five serological markers to detect exposure to infection within the previous three months with >80% sensitivity and specificity.

Background Asymptomatic carriage of malaria parasites is common in high transmission intensity areas and confounds clinical case definitions for research studies. This is important for investigations that aim to identify immune correlates of protection from clinical malaria. The proportion of fevers attributable to malaria parasites is widely used to define different thresholds of parasite density associated with febrile episodes. The varying intensity of malaria transmission was investigated to check whether it had a significant impact on the parasite density thresholds. The same dataset was used to explore an alternative statistical approach, using the probability of developing fevers as a choice over threshold cut-offs. The former has been reported to increase predictive power. Methods Data from children monitored longitudinally between 2005 and 2017 from Junju and Chonyi in Kilifi, Kenya were used. Performance comparison of Bayesian-latent class and logistic power models in estimating malaria attributable fractions and probabilities of having fever given a parasite density with changing malaria transmission intensity was done using Junju cohort. Zero-inflated beta regressions were used to assess the impact of using probabilities to evaluate anti-merozoite antibodies as correlates of protection, compared with multilevel binary regression using data from Chonyi and Junju. Results Malaria transmission intensity declined from over 49% to 5% between 2006 and 2017, respectively. During this period, malaria attributable fraction varied between 27–59% using logistic regression compared to 10–36% with the Bayesian latent class approach. Both models estimated similar patterns of fevers attributable to malaria with changing transmission intensities. The Bayesian latent class model performed well in estimating the probabilities of having fever, while the latter was efficient in determining the parasite density threshold. However, compared to the logistic power model, the Bayesian algorithm yielded lower estimates for both attributable fractions and probabilities of fever. In modelling the association of merozoite antibodies and clinical malaria, both approaches resulted in comparable estimates, but the utilization of probabilities had a better statistical fit. Conclusions Malaria attributable fractions, varied with an overall decline in the malaria transmission intensity in this setting but did not significantly impact the outcomes of analyses aimed at identifying immune correlates of protection. These data confirm the statistical advantage of using probabilities over binary data.

Background Individuals living in endemic areas acquire immunity to malaria following repeated parasite exposure. We sought to assess the controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) model as a means of studying naturally acquired immunity in Kenyan adults with varying malaria exposure. Methods We analysed data from 142 Kenyan adults from three locations representing distinct areas of malaria endemicity (Ahero, Kilifi North and Kilifi South) enrolled in a CHMI study with Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites NF54 strain (Sanaria® PfSPZ Challenge). To identify the in vivo outcomes that most closely reflected naturally acquired immunity, parameters based on qPCR measurements were compared with anti-schizont antibody levels and residence as proxy markers of naturally acquired immunity. Results Time to endpoint correlated more closely with anti-schizont antibodies and location of residence than other parasite parameters such as growth rate or mean parasite density. Compared to observational field-based studies in children where 0.8% of the variability in malaria outcome was observed to be explained by anti-schizont antibodies, in the CHMI model the dichotomized anti-schizont antibodies explained 17% of the variability. Conclusions The CHMI model is highly effective in studying markers of naturally acquired immunity to malaria. Trial registration  Clinicaltrials.gov number NCT02739763. Registered 15 April 2016

The high proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections that have remained undetected presents a challenge to tracking the progress of the pandemic and estimating the extent of population immunity. We used residual blood samples from women attending antenatal care services at three hospitals in Kenya between August 2020 and October 2021and a validated IgG ELISA for SARS-Cov-2 spike protein and adjusted the results for assay sensitivity and specificity. We fitted a two-component mixture model as an alternative to the threshold analysis to estimate of the proportion of individuals with past SARS-CoV-2 infection. We estimated seroprevalence in 2,981 women; 706 in Nairobi, 567 in Busia and 1,708 in Kilifi. By October 2021, 13% of participants were vaccinated (at least one dose) in Nairobi, 2% in Busia. Adjusted seroprevalence rose in all sites; from 50% (95%CI 42-58) in August 2020, to 85% (95%CI 78-92) in October 2021 in Nairobi; from 31% (95%CI 25-37) in May 2021 to 71% (95%CI 64-77) in October 2021 in Busia; and from 1% (95% CI 0-3) in September 2020 to 63% (95% CI 56-69) in October 2021 in Kilifi. Mixture modelling, suggests adjusted cross-sectional prevalence estimates are underestimates; seroprevalence in October 2021 could be 74% in Busia and 72% in Kilifi. There has been substantial, unobserved transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Nairobi, Busia and Kilifi Counties. Due to the length of time since the beginning of the pandemic, repeated cross-sectional surveys are now difficult to interpret without the use of models to account for antibody waning.

Background Malaria is transmitted when infected Anopheles mosquitoes take a blood meal. During this process, the mosquitoes inject a cocktail of bioactive proteins that elicit antibody responses in humans and could be used as biomarkers of exposure to mosquito bites. This study evaluated the utility of IgG responses to members of the Anopheles gambiae D7 protein family as serological markers of human–vector contact. Methods The D7L2, D7r1, D7r2, D7r3, D7r4 and SG6 salivary proteins from An. gambiae were expressed as recombinant antigens in Escherichia coli . Antibody responses to the salivary proteins were compared in Europeans with no prior exposure to malaria and lifelong residents of Junju in Kenya and Kitgum in Uganda where the intensity of malaria transmission is moderate and high, respectively. In addition, to evaluate the feasibility of using anti-D7 IgG responses as a tool to evaluate the impact of vector control interventions, we compared responses between individuals using insecticide-treated bednets to those who did not in Junju, Kenya where bednet data were available. Results We show that both the long and short forms of the D7 salivary gland antigens elicit a strong antibody response in humans. IgG responses against the D7 antigens reflected the transmission intensities of the three study areas, with the highest to lowest responses observed in Kitgum (northern Uganda), Junju (Kenya) and malaria-naïve Europeans, respectively. Specifically, the long form D7L2 induced an IgG antibody response that increased with age and that was lower in individuals who slept under a bednet, indicating its potential as a serological tool for estimating human–vector contact and monitoring the effectiveness of vector control interventions. Conclusions This study reveals that D7L2 salivary antigen has great potential as a biomarker of exposure to mosquito bites and as a tool for assessing the efficacy of vector control strategies such as bednet use. Graphical abstract

Malaria remains a major global health priority, and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are emerging as potential new tools to support efforts to control the disease. Recent data suggest that Fc-dependent mechanisms of immunity are important mediators of protection against the blood stages of the infection, but few studies have investigated this in the context of mAbs. We aimed to isolate mAbs agnostic to cognate antigens that target whole merozoites and simultaneously induce potent neutrophil activity measured by the level of reactive oxygen species (ROS) production using an antibody-dependent respiratory burst (ADRB) assay. We used samples from semi-immune adults living in coastal Kenya to isolate mAbs that induce merozoite-specific ADRB activity. We then tested whether modifying the expressed IgG1 isotype to an IgG-IgA Fc region chimera would enhance the level of ADRB activity. We isolated a panel of nine mAbs with specificity to whole merozoites. mAb J31 induced ADRB activity in a dose-dependent fashion. Compared to IgG1, our modified antibody IgG-IgA bi-isotype induced higher ADRB activity across all concentrations tested. Further, we observed a negative hook effect at high IgG1 mAb concentrations (i.e., >200 µg/mL), but this was reversed by Fc modification. We identified MSP3.5 as the potential cognate target of mAb J31. We demonstrate an approach to engineer mAbs with enhanced ADRB potency against blood-stage parasites.