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Life arose on Earth sometime in the first few hundred million years after the young planet had cooled to the point that it could support water-based organisms on its surface. The early emergence of life on Earth has been taken as evidence that the probability of abiogenesis is high, if starting from young Earth-like conditions. We revisit this argument quantitatively in a Bayesian statistical framework. By constructing a simple model of the probability of abiogenesis, we calculate a Bayesian estimate of its posterior probability, given the data that life emerged fairly early in Earth’s history and that, billions of years later, curious creatures noted this fact and considered its implications. We find that, given only this very limited empirical information, the choice of Bayesian prior for the abiogenesis probability parameter has a dominant influence on the computed posterior probability. Although terrestrial life's early emergence provides evidence that life might be abundant in the universe if early-Earth-like conditions are common, the evidence is inconclusive and indeed is consistent with an arbitrarily low intrinsic probability of abiogenesis for plausible uninformative priors. Finding a single case of life arising independently of our lineage (on Earth, elsewhere in the solar system, or on an extrasolar planet) would provide much stronger evidence that abiogenesis is not extremely rare in the universe.

The known population of exoplanets exhibits a much wider range of orbital eccentricities than Solar System planets and has a much higher average eccentricity. These facts have been widely interpreted to indicate that the Solar System is an atypical member of the overall population of planetary systems. We report here on a strong anticorrelation of orbital eccentricity with multiplicity (number of planets in the system) among cataloged radial velocity (RV) systems. The mean, median, and rough distribution of eccentricities of Solar System planets fits an extrapolation of this anticorrelation to the eight-planet case rather precisely despite the fact that no more than two Solar System planets would be detectable with RV data comparable to that in the exoplanet sample. Moreover, even if regarded as a single or double planetary system, the Solar System lies in a reasonably heavily populated region of eccentricity−multiplicity space. Thus, the Solar System is not anomalous among known exoplanetary systems with respect to eccentricities when its multiplicity is taken into account. Specifically, as the multiplicity of a system increases, the eccentricity decreases roughly as a power law of index –1.20. A simple and plausible but ad hoc and model-dependent interpretation of this relationship implies that ∼80% of the one-planet and 25% of the two-planet systems in our sample have additional, as yet undiscovered, members but that systems of higher observed multiplicity are largely complete (i.e., relatively rarely contain additional undiscovered planets). If low eccentricities indeed favor high multiplicities, habitability may be more common in systems with a larger number of planets. Significance The Solar System planets have near-circular orbits (i.e., unusually low eccentricity) compared with the known population of exoplanets, planets that orbit stars other than the Sun. This fact has been widely interpreted to indicate that the Solar System is an atypical member of the overall population of planetary systems. We find a strong anticorrelation of orbital eccentricity with the number of planets (multiplicity) in a system that extrapolates nicely to the eight-planet, Solar System case despite the fact that no more than two Solar System planets would be detectable in the sample in which the anticorrelation was discovered. Habitability may be more common in systems with a larger number of planets, which have lower typical eccentricities.

Flux estimates for faint sources or transients are systematically biased high because there are far more truly faint sources than bright. Corrections that account for this effect are presented as a function of signal‐to‐noise ratio and the (true) slope of the faint‐source number‐flux relation. The corrections depend on the source being originally identified in the image in which it is being photometered. If a source has been identified in other data, the corrections are different; a prescription for calculating the corrections is presented. Implications of these corrections for analyses of surveys are discussed; the most important is that sources identified at signal‐to‐noise ratios of 4 or less are practically useless.

Gravitational lensing of light from some of the most distant objects known could be more widespread than had been thought. If so, it could be good--and bad--news for cosmologists. Research by Wyithe and Loeb is discussed.

Gravitational lensing provides a strict test of cosmogonic models because it is directly sensitive to mass inhomogeneities. Detailed numerical propagation of light rays through a universe that has a distribution of inhomogeneities derived from the standard CDM (cold dark matter) scenario, with the aid of massive, fully nonlinear computer simulations, was used to test the model. It predicts that more widely split quasar images should have been seen than were actually found. These and other inconsistencies rule out the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE)-normalized CDM model with density parameter Ω = 1 and the Hubble constant (H$_0$) = 50 kilometers second$^{-1}$ megaparsec${-1}$; but variants of this model might be constructed, which could pass the stringent tests provided by strong gravitational lensing.

Gravitational lensing is a powerful tool for the study of the distribution of dark matter in the Universe. The cold-dark-matter model of the formation of large-scale structures (that is, clusters of galaxies and even larger assemblies) predicts 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 the existence of quasars gravitationally lensed by concentrations of dark matter 7 so massive that the quasar images would be split by over 7 arcsec. Numerous searches 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 for large-separation lensed quasars have, however, been unsuccessful. All of the roughly 70 lensed quasars known 12 , including the first lensed quasar discovered 13 , have smaller separations that can be explained in terms of galaxy-scale concentrations of baryonic matter. Although gravitationally lensed galaxies 14 with large separations are known, quasars are more useful cosmological probes because of the simplicity of the resulting lens systems. Here we report the discovery of a lensed quasar, SDSS J1004 + 4112, which has a maximum separation between the components of 14.62 arcsec. Such a large separation means that the lensing object must be dominated by dark matter. Our results are fully consistent with theoretical expectations 3 , 4 , 5 based on the cold-dark-matter model.

With dozens of Jovian and super-Jovian exoplanets known to orbit their host stars in or near the stellar habitable zones, it has recently been suggested that moons the size of Mars could offer abundant surface habitats beyond the solar system. Several searches for such exomoons are now underway, and the exquisite astronomical data quality of upcoming space missions and ground-based extremely large telescopes could make the detection and characterization of exomoons possible in the near future. Here we explore the effects of tidal heating on the potential of Mars- to Earth-sized satellites to host liquid surface water, and we compare the tidal heating rates predicted by tidal equilibrium model and a viscoelastic model. In addition to tidal heating, we consider stellar radiation, planetary illumination and thermal heat from the planet. However, the effects of a possible moon atmosphere are neglected. We map the circumplanetary habitable zone for different stellar distances in specific star-planet-satellite configurations, and determine those regions where tidal heating dominates over stellar radiation. We find that the `thermostat effect' of the viscoelastic model is significant not just at large distances from the star, but also in the stellar habitable zone, where stellar radiation is prevalent. We also find that tidal heating of Mars-sized moons with eccentricities between 0.001 and 0.01 is the dominant energy source beyond 3--5 AU from a Sun-like star and beyond 0.4--0.6 AU from an M3 dwarf star. The latter would be easier to detect (if they exist), but their orbital stability might be under jeopardy due to the gravitational perturbations from the star.

Tidal heating of exomoons may play a key role in their habitability, since the elevated temperature can melt the ice on the body even without significant solar radiation. The possibility of life is intensely studied on Solar System moons such as Europa or Enceladus, where the surface ice layer covers tidally heated water ocean. Tidal forces may be even stronger in extrasolar systems, depending on the properties of the moon and its orbit. For studying the tidally heated surface temperature of exomoons, we used a viscoelastic model for the first time. This model is more realistic than the widely used, so-called fixed Q models, because it takes into account the temperature dependency of the tidal heat flux, and the melting of the inner material. With the use of this model we introduced the circumplanetary Tidal Temperate Zone (TTZ), that strongly depends on the orbital period of the moon, and less on its radius. We compared the results with the fixed Q model and investigated the statistical volume of the TTZ using both models. We have found that the viscoelastic model predicts 2.8 times more exomoons in the TTZ with orbital periods between 0.1 and 3.5 days than the fixed Q model for plausible distributions of physical and orbital parameters. The viscoelastic model gives more promising results in terms of habitability, because the inner melting of the body moderates the surface temperature, acting like a thermostat.