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Conservation priority setting based on phylogenetic diversity has frequently been proposed but rarely implemented. Here, we define a simple index that measures the contribution made by different species to phylogenetic diversity and show how the index might contribute towards species-based conservation priorities. We describe procedures to control for missing species, incomplete phylogenetic resolution and uncertainty in node ages that make it possible to apply the method in poorly known clades. We also show that the index is independent of clade size in phylogenies of more than 100 species, indicating that scores from unrelated taxonomic groups are likely to be comparable. Similar scores are returned under two different species concepts, suggesting that the index is robust to taxonomic changes. The approach is applied to a near-complete species-level phylogeny of the Mammalia to generate a global priority list incorporating both phylogenetic diversity and extinction risk. The 100 highest-ranking species represent a high proportion of total mammalian diversity and include many species not usually recognised as conservation priorities. Many species that are both evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered (EDGE species) do not benefit from existing conservation projects or protected areas. The results suggest that global conservation priorities may have to be reassessed in order to prevent a disproportionately large amount of mammalian evolutionary history becoming extinct in the near future.

Reconstructing the evolutionary history of island biotas is complicated by unusual morphological evolution in insular environments. However, past human-caused extinctions limit the use of molecular analyses to determine origins and affinities of enigmatic island taxa. The Caribbean formerly contained a morphologically diverse assemblage of caviomorph rodents (33 species in 19 genera), ranging from ∼0.1 to 200 kg and traditionally classified into three higher-order taxa (Capromyidae/Capromyinae, Heteropsomyinae, and Heptaxodontidae). Few species survive today, and the evolutionary affinities of living and extinct Caribbean caviomorphs to each other and to mainland taxa are unclear: Are they monophyletic, polyphyletic, or paraphyletic? We use ancient DNA techniques to present the first genetic data for extinct heteropsomyines and heptaxodontids, as well as for several extinct capromyids, and demonstrate through analysis of mitogenomic and nuclear data sets that all sampled Caribbean caviomorphs represent a well-supported monophyletic group. The remarkable morphological and ecological variation observed across living and extinct caviomorphs from Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Puerto Rico, and other islands was generated through within-archipelago evolutionary radiation following a single Early Miocene overwater colonization. This evolutionary pattern contrasts with the origination of diversity in many other Caribbean groups. All living and extinct Caribbean caviomorphs comprise a single biologically remarkable subfamily (Capromyinae) within the morphologically conservative living Neotropical family Echimyidae. Caribbean caviomorphs represent an important new example of insular mammalian adaptive radiation, where taxa retaining “ancestral-type” characteristics coexisted alongside taxa occupying novel island niches. Diversification was associated with the greatest insular body mass increase recorded in rodents and possibly the greatest for any mammal lineage.

The extensive postglacial mammal losses in the West Indies provide an opportunity to evaluate extinction dynamics, but limited data have hindered our ability to test hypotheses. Here, we analyze the tempo and dynamics of extinction using a novel data set of faunal last-appearance dates and human first-appearance dates, demonstrating widespread overlap between humans and now-extinct native mammals. Humans arrived in four waves (Lithic, Archaic, Ceramic, and European), each associated with increased environmental impact. Large-bodied mammals and several bats were extinct by the Archaic, following protracted extinction dynamics perhaps reflecting habitat loss. Most small-bodied rodents and lipotyphlan insectivores survived the Ceramic, but extensive landscape transformation and the introduction of invasive mammals following European colonization caused further extinctions, leaving a threatened remnant fauna. Both large- and small-bodied nonvolant mammals disappeared, reflecting complex relationships between body size, ecology, and anthropogenic change. Extinct bats were generally larger species, paralleling declines from natural catastrophes.

Long-term faunal data are needed to track biodiversity change and extinction over wide spatio-temporal scales. The Holocene record is a particularly rich and well-resolved resource for this purpose but nonetheless represents a biased subset of the original faunal composition, both at the site-level assemblage and when data are pooled for wider-scale analysis. We investigated patterns and potential sources of taxonomic, spatial and temporal bias in two Holocene datasets of mammalian occurrence and abundance, one at the global species level and one at the continental population-level. Larger-bodied species are disproportionately abundant in the Holocene fossil record, but this varies according to trophic level, probably owing to past patterns of human subsistence and exploitation. Despite the uneven spatial distribution of mammalian occurrence records, we found no specific source of sampling bias, suggesting that this error type can be avoided by intensive data collection protocols. Faunal assemblages are more abundant and precisely dated nearer to the present as a consequence of taphonomy, past human demography and dating methods. Our study represents one of the first attempts to quantify incompleteness and bias in the Holocene mammal record, and failing to critically assess the quality of long-term faunal datasets has major implications for understanding species decline and extinction risk. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?’

Although the recent historical period is usually treated as a temporal base-line for understanding patterns of mammal extinction, mammalian biodiversity loss has also taken place throughout the Late Quaternary. We explore the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns of 241 mammal species extinctions known to have occurred during the Holocene up to the present day. To assess whether our understanding of mammalian threat processes has been affected by excluding these taxa, we incorporate extinct species data into analyses of the impact of body mass on extinction risk. We find that Holocene extinctions have been phylogenetically and spatially concentrated in specific taxa and geographical regions, which are often not congruent with those disproportionately at risk today. Large-bodied mammals have also been more extinction-prone in most geographical regions across the Holocene. Our data support the extinction filter hypothesis, whereby regional faunas from which susceptible species have already become extinct now appear less threatened; they may also suggest that different processes are responsible for driving past and present extinctions. We also find overall incompleteness and inter-regional biases in extinction data from the recent fossil record. Although direct use of fossil data in future projections of extinction risk is therefore not straightforward, insights into extinction processes from the Holocene record are still useful in understanding mammalian threat.

Extinction events typically represent extended processes of decline that cannot be reconstructed using short-term studies. Long-term archives are necessary to determine past baselines and the extent of human-caused biodiversity change, but the capacity of historical datasets to provide predictive power for conservation must be assessed within a robust analytical framework. Local Chinese gazetteers represent a more than 400-year country-level dataset containing abundant information on past environmental conditions and include extensive records of gibbons, which have a restricted present-day distribution but formerly occurred across much of China. Gibbons show pre-twentieth century range contraction, with significant fragmentation by the mid-eighteenth century and population loss escalating in the late nineteenth century. Isolated gibbon populations persisted for about 40 years before local extinction. Populations persisted for longer at higher elevations, and disappeared earlier from northern and eastern regions, with the biogeography of population loss consistent with the contagion model of range collapse in response to human demographic expansion spreading directionally across China. The long-term Chinese historical record can track extinction events and human interactions with the environment across much longer timescales than are usually addressed in ecology, contributing novel baselines for conservation and an increased understanding of extinction dynamics and species vulnerability or resilience to human pressures.

Human-driven extinction threatens entire lineages across the Tree of Life. Here we assess the conservation status of jawed vertebrate evolutionary history, using three policy-relevant approaches. First, we calculate an index of threat to overall evolutionary history, showing that we expect to lose 86–150 billion years (11–19%) of jawed vertebrate evolutionary history over the next 50–500 years. Second, we rank jawed vertebrate species by their EDGE scores to identify the highest priorities for species-focused conservation of evolutionary history, finding that chondrichthyans, ray-finned fish and testudines rank highest of all jawed vertebrates. Third, we assess the conservation status of jawed vertebrate families. We found that species within monotypic families are more likely to be threatened and more likely to be in decline than other species. We provide a baseline for the status of families at risk of extinction to catalyse conservation action. This work continues a trend of highlighting neglected groups—such as testudines, crocodylians, amphibians and chondrichthyans—as conservation priorities from a phylogenetic perspective. Extinction threatens to erode the Tree of Life. Here, the authors calculate extinction risk for jawed vertebrates, predicting a loss of 86–150 billion years (11–19%) of evolutionary history through the next 50–500 years and indicating that cartilaginous fish, ray-finned fish, and turtles are most at risk from a phylogenetic perspective.

Palaeontologists often ask identical questions to those asked by ecologists. Despite this, ecology is considered a core discipline of conservation biology, while palaeontologists are rarely consulted in the protection of species, habitats and ecosystems. The recent emergence of conservation palaeobiology presents a big step towards better integration of palaeontology in conservation science, although its focus on historical baselines may not fully capture the potential contributions of geohistorical data to conservation science. In this essay we address previously defined priority questions in conservation and consider which of these questions may be answerable using palaeontological data. Using a statistical assessment of surveys, we find that conservation biologists and younger scientists have a more optimistic view of potential palaeontological contributions to the field compared to experienced palaeontologists. Participants considered questions related to climate change and marine ecosystems to be the best addressable with palaeontological data. As these categories are also deemed most relevant by ecologists and receive the greatest research effort in conservation, they are the natural choice for future academic collaboration. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?’

The use of short-term indicators for understanding patterns and processes of biodiversity loss can mask longer-term faunal responses to human pressures. We use an extensive database of approximately 18 700 mammalian zooarchaeological records for the last 11 700 years across Europe to reconstruct spatio-temporal dynamics of Holocene range change for 15 large-bodied mammal species. European mammals experienced protracted, non-congruent range losses, with significant declines starting in some species approximately 3000 years ago and continuing to the present, and with the timing, duration and magnitude of declines varying individually between species. Some European mammals became globally extinct during the Holocene, whereas others experienced limited or no significant range change. These findings demonstrate the relatively early onset of prehistoric human impacts on postglacial biodiversity, and mirror species-specific patterns of mammalian extinction during the Late Pleistocene. Herbivores experienced significantly greater declines than carnivores, revealing an important historical extinction filter that informs our understanding of relative resilience and vulnerability to human pressures for different taxa. We highlight the importance of large-scale, long-term datasets for understanding complex protracted extinction processes, although the dynamic pattern of progressive faunal depletion of European mammal assemblages across the Holocene challenges easy identification of ‘static’ past baselines to inform current-day environmental management and restoration.