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"Uljee, Inge"
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European Green Deal Strategies for Agriculture in Dynamic Urbanised Landscapes
Land use change and agricultural management have a considerable impact on land use patterns and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in dynamic urbanised landscapes. This study evaluated sustainable land allocation strategies in line with the European Green Deal. A constrained cellular automata land use model was employed to assess the impacts of Business-as-Usual (BAU), Land Sharing (LSH), and Land Sparing (LSP) scenarios, using open-access data from Flanders (Belgium). Under BAU, urban expansion reduced unregistered agricultural land by 495 km2, leading to higher GHG emissions despite an 11% increase in green space. LSH increased green space by 36% and enhanced landscape diversity, while LSP improved habitat coherence by 24%. Livestock-related methane (3.09 Mt CO2e) dominated GHG emissions, comprising more than 75% of the total, with cattle responsible for 73% of methane emissions. Nitrous oxide emissions reduced from 1.60 Mt CO2e to 1.44 (BAU), 1.43 (LSP), and 1.42 (LSH) Mt CO2e. Forest sequestration offset up to 34% of total emissions, removing −1.35 Mt CO2e. Green Deal measures mitigated emissions in all scenarios, with LSH achieving the highest gains. The results highlight the need for spatial strategies that integrate sustainable agricultural practices and balance productivity, nature conservation, and climate action under the European Green Deal.
Journal Article
Modeling cities and regions as complex systems : from theory to planning applications
Cities and regions grow (or occasionally decline), and continuously transform themselves as they do so. This book describes the theory and practice of modeling the spatial dynamics of urban growth and transformation.
eBook
The Bigger Picture: Integrated Multiscale Models
Spatial structure is the result of locational decisions reflecting criteria operating at a variety of scales. Thus the CA land use model is augmented with a regionalized, spatial interaction based dynamic model of population and employment that captures spatial processes operating at intermediate scales. The model is structurally very similar to typical transportation models, but with output representing yearly migrations of activity rather than hourly flows. The regional activity totals generated by the model are translated into cell demands for the various land uses, so the CA is now constrained regionally rather than globally. This integrated multiscale model continues to be linked interactively to demographic, economic and other relevant models. For some applications a transportation model is included in order to produce a high-resolution LUTI (Land Use – Transportation Interaction) model. Applications to Dublin (including one for wastewater treatment infrastructure planning) The Netherlands, Puerto Rico, and New Zealand are discussed.
Book Chapter
Urban Systems and Spatial Competition
The structure of a system of retail centres as described by their size, composition, and location, is a result of competition among the centres for customers. The evolution of the system is described by a set of cost and revenue equations. The revenue equations include a distance decay parameter. When this parameter is below a critical value, retail activity tends to agglomerate in a major, centrally located centre; otherwise, it tends to be dispersed among a number of similar centres. This fundamental bifurcation appears in actual retail systems. It underlies such phenomena as itinerant medieval trade fairs, the historical migration of the major retail centre of cities like London and New York, and innovations like the department store, the regional mall, and power centres. Since a lower distance decay parameter is associated with higher energy densities, a direct link is established between spatial structure, energy, and technology.
Book Chapter
Issues of Calibration, Validation, and Methodology
Models of far from equilibrium thermodynamic systems such as cities, unlike those of classical systems, pose not only practical difficulties of calibration and validation, but also fundamental problems linked to the fact that the systems have open futures, so that any appropriate model must predict both possible futures, while only one will be observed. The models, like the systems, are only quasi-predictable. Overcalibration is likely because any single calibration procedure will aim for the observed outcome rather than both the observed and unobserved. Validation tests are indeterminate for the same reason. At present the most useful approach for minimizing these difficulties is multiplicity: use of multi-criteria, multi-objective tests in a multiplicity of similar applications. The more phenomena a single model can predict, the more Popperian riskiness it enjoys, and the more confidence it earns when those predictions are correct. The need for detailed tests involving map comparisons has led to the development of new techniques like fuzzy kappa and measures based on polygons and wavelet analysis, while the methodological problems are driving the emergence of a new philosophy of science.
Book Chapter
Theory and Consequences
Cities are systems maintained far from thermodynamic equilibrium by a constant inflow of energy and an outflow of entropy in the form of waste and pollution. Such systems exhibit complex, not entirely predictable, but increasingly ordered behaviour. In contrast to the predictable, law-like behaviour of equilibrium systems, they have open futures, so a formal treatment must be algorithmic rather than purely mathematical. Relatively generic models of self-organizing systems developed by John Conway, Stephen Wolfram, Christopher Langton, Stewart Kauffman and others have resulted in “candidate principles” characterizing such systems. One such principle is that self-organized systems (e.g. cities) tend to have a fractal structure. The urban models discussed in this book are much more detailed and realistic than the generic models, and this permits a variety of empirical tests as well as planning applications. But both tests and applications have unconventional characteristics because of the open futures nature of the models.
Book Chapter