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"Uljee, Inge"
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European Green Deal Strategies for Agriculture in Dynamic Urbanised Landscapes
Land use change and agricultural management have a considerable impact on land use patterns and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in dynamic urbanised landscapes. This study evaluated sustainable land allocation strategies in line with the European Green Deal. A constrained cellular automata land use model was employed to assess the impacts of Business-as-Usual (BAU), Land Sharing (LSH), and Land Sparing (LSP) scenarios, using open-access data from Flanders (Belgium). Under BAU, urban expansion reduced unregistered agricultural land by 495 km2, leading to higher GHG emissions despite an 11% increase in green space. LSH increased green space by 36% and enhanced landscape diversity, while LSP improved habitat coherence by 24%. Livestock-related methane (3.09 Mt CO2e) dominated GHG emissions, comprising more than 75% of the total, with cattle responsible for 73% of methane emissions. Nitrous oxide emissions reduced from 1.60 Mt CO2e to 1.44 (BAU), 1.43 (LSP), and 1.42 (LSH) Mt CO2e. Forest sequestration offset up to 34% of total emissions, removing −1.35 Mt CO2e. Green Deal measures mitigated emissions in all scenarios, with LSH achieving the highest gains. The results highlight the need for spatial strategies that integrate sustainable agricultural practices and balance productivity, nature conservation, and climate action under the European Green Deal.
Journal Article
Modeling cities and regions as complex systems : from theory to planning applications
Cities and regions grow (or occasionally decline), and continuously transform themselves as they do so. This book describes the theory and practice of modeling the spatial dynamics of urban growth and transformation.
eBook
The Cellular Automaton Eats the Regions: Unified Modeling of Activities and Land Use in a Variable Grid Cellular Automaton
Land use is an expression of activity, thus it is more reasonable to model both simultaneously within a single framework. This is done with a variable grid activity based CA. The neighbourhood of each cell is the entire modelled region, so the neighbourhood effect includes a distance decay weighting function capturing processes operating at all scales. A variable grid, in which the cells of the neighbourhood are aggregated into increasingly large supercells as distance from the reference cell increases, ensures that run times remain comparable to those of a conventional CA. Each cell may have multiple activities (population, retail, etc.) at various densities, which permits more realistic modelling in urban areas. Land use corresponds to the dominant activity. An application to Dublin includes comparisons with the other modelling approaches; applications to Belgium include one in which agricultural activity is modelled.
Book Chapter
The Fractal Forms of Urban Land Use Patterns
The complex order that characterizes cities is typically a fractal order in various respects. The edge of the urbanized area, the density of development, the route pattern of the transport system, the size distribution of land use clusters—all are fractals. This fractal structure is apparently both a requirement for and an expression of the functionality of the city; fractal dimensions are therefore useful measures of urban form. Two fractal measures have proven valuable in calibration and validation of the urban land use models: the radial dimension and the cluster size – frequency dimension. The radial dimension reveals cities to be bi-fractals, characterized by a fully developed area with a dimension of 1.90 to 1.95 and a peripheral area with a dimension of 1 to 1.3. Individual land uses also have characteristic radial dimensions, and these reveal a concentric zonation of land uses hidden within the complex land use pattern.
Book Chapter
Emerging Theory
Following Richard Levins, a theory of cities and regions as complex systems consists of a set of overlapping models together with their robust consequences—i.e. the quasi-regularities that emerge. Five such regularities emerge from the family of models discussed in this book: The clustering-dispersal bifurcation dependent on the distance decay parameter The bi-fractal radial dimension The linearity of the cluster size – frequency relationship The decomposition into two distinct scales of the distance decay effect The possible universality of the CA influence functions. The models generate these regularities but do not explain them because they emerge from the behaviour of the individual agents who populate the city, and the models are not explicit at that level. However, the most important aspect of the emerging theory is not the set of regularities but the representation of the process of self-organization itself, both as a source of bifurcating possibilities and as a generator of detailed representations of actual cities and regions.
Book Chapter