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Integrated Multidimensional Sustainability Assessment of Energy System Transformation Pathways
Sustainable development embraces a broad spectrum of social, economic and ecological aspects. Thus, a sustainable transformation process of energy systems is inevitably multidimensional and needs to go beyond climate impact and cost considerations. An approach for an integrated and interdisciplinary sustainability assessment of energy system transformation pathways is presented here. It first integrates energy system modeling with a multidimensional impact assessment that focuses on life cycle-based environmental and macroeconomic impacts. Then, stakeholders’ preferences with respect to defined sustainability indicators are inquired, which are finally integrated into a comparative scenario evaluation through a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), all in one consistent assessment framework. As an illustrative example, this holistic approach is applied to the sustainability assessment of ten different transformation strategies for Germany. Applying multi-criteria decision analysis reveals that both ambitious (80%) and highly ambitious (95%) carbon reduction scenarios can achieve top sustainability ranks, depending on the underlying energy transformation pathways and respective scores in other sustainability dimensions. Furthermore, this research highlights an increasingly dominant contribution of energy systems’ upstream chains on total environmental impacts, reveals rather small differences in macroeconomic effects between different scenarios and identifies the transition among societal segments and climate impact minimization as the most important stakeholder preferences.
Journal Article
Comparison of macroeconomic developments in ten scenarios of energy system transformation in Germany: National and regional results
Background
Different strategies have been proposed for transforming the energy system in Germany. To evaluate their sustainability, it is necessary to analyze their macroeconomic and distributional effects. An approach to do this analysis in an integrated consistent framework is presented here.
Methods
Comparing ten energy transition scenarios with emission reduction targets by 2050 of 80% or 95%, respectively, allows evaluating a broad range of energy system transformation strategies with respect to the future technology and energy carrier mix. For this purpose, an energy system model and a macroeconometric model are combined, thus re-modeling the unified scenarios. An important extension of the model was concerned with the integration of synthetic fuels into the energy-economy model. One focus besides the overall macroeconomic assessment is the regional analysis. For this purpose, own assumptions on the regional distribution of the expansion of renewable energies were developed.
Results
The effects on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment are similar on average from 2030 to 2050 across the scenarios, with most of the more ambitious scenarios showing slightly higher values for the socioeconomic variables. Employment in the construction sector shows the largest effects in most scenarios, while in the energy sector employment is lower in scenarios with high energy imports. At the regional level, the differences between scenarios are larger than at the national level. There is no clear or stable regional pattern of relative loss and profit from the very ambitious transformation, as not only renewable energy expansion varies, and hydrogen strategies enter the scene approaching 2050.
Conclusions
From the relatively small differences between the scenarios, it can be concluded that, from a macroeconomic perspective, it is not decisive for the overall economy which (supply side) strategy is chosen for the transformation of the energy system. More effort needs to be put into improving assumptions and modeling approaches related to strategies for achieving the final 20% CO
2
reduction, for example the increasing use of hydrogen.
Journal Article
Sustainability assessments of energy scenarios: citizens’ preferences for and assessments of sustainability indicators
Background
Given the multitude of scenarios on the future of our energy systems, multi-criteria assessments are increasingly called for to analyze and assess desired and undesired effects of possible pathways with regard to their environmental, economic and social sustainability. Existing studies apply elaborate lists of sustainability indicators, yet these indicators are defined and selected by experts and the relative importance of each indicator for the overall sustainability assessments is either determined by experts or is computed using mathematical functions. Target group-specific empirical data regarding citizens’ preferences for sustainability indicators as well as their reasoning behind their choices are not included in existing assessments.
Approach and results
We argue that citizens’ preferences and values need to be more systematically analyzed. Next to valid and reliable data regarding diverse sets of indicators, reflections and deliberations are needed regarding what different societal actors, including citizens, consider as justified and legitimate interventions in nature and society, and what considerations they include in their own assessments. For this purpose, we present results from a discrete choice experiment. The method originated in marketing and is currently becoming a popular means to systematically analyze individuals’ preference structures for energy technology assessments. As we show in our paper, it can be fruitfully applied to study citizens’ values and weightings with regard to sustainability issues. Additionally, we present findings from six focus groups that unveil the reasons behind citizens’ preferences and choices.
Conclusions
Our combined empirical methods provide main insights with strong implications for the future development and assessment of energy pathways: while environmental and climate-related effects significantly influenced citizens’ preferences for or against certain energy pathways, total systems and production costs were of far less importance to citizens than the public discourse suggests. Many scenario studies seek to optimize pathways according to total systems costs. In contrast, our findings show that the role of fairness and distributional justice in transition processes featured as a dominant theme for citizens. This adds central dimensions for future multi-criteria assessments that, so far, have been neglected by current energy systems models.
Journal Article
A systematic review of physical-digital play technology and developmentally relevant child behaviour
New interactive physical-digital play technologies are shaping the way children plan. These technologies refer to digital play technologies that engage children in analogue forms of behaviour, either alone or with others. Current interactive physical-digital play technologies include robots, digital agents, mixed or augmented reality devices, and smart-eye based gaming. Little is known, however, about the ways in which these technologies could promote or damage child development. This systematic review was aimed at understanding if and how these physical-digital play technologies promoted developmentally relevant behaviour in typically developing 0 to 12 year-olds. Psychology, Education, and Computer Science databases were searched producing 635 paper. A total of 31 papers met the inclusion criteria, of which 17 were of high enough quality to be included for synthesis. Results indicate that these new interactive play technologies could have a positive effect on children's developmentally relevant behaviour. The review indicated specific ways in which different behaviour were promoted. Providing information about own performance promoted self-monitoring. Slowing interactivity, play interdependency, and joint object accessibility promoted collaboration. Offering delimited choices promoted decision making. Problem solving and physical activity were promoted by requiring children to engage in them to keep playing. Four principles underpinned the ways in which physical digital play technologies afforded child behaviour. These included social expectations framing play situations, the directiveness of action regulations (inviting, guiding or forcing behaviours), the technical features of play technologies (digital play mechanics and physical characteristics), and the alignment between play goals, play technology and the play behaviours promoted.
Paper
Economic Evaluation of Climate Protection Measures in Germany
The paper builds on a study \"Policy Scenarios for Climate Protection VI\". In the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) all measures which have been implemented by July 8 2011 are considered. In the Energy Transformation Scenario (ETS) additional measures are included to reach the climate targets of the German government until 2030. Both policy scenarios build on the same socio-economic assumptions and just differ by climate protection measures. Investment in climate protection will reduce energy consumption in the long term and shift it towards low or zero carbon energy carriers. Scenarios are implemented in the model PANTA RHEI. Results of more ambitious climate protection measures are positive: Annual gross domestic product will be 25 to 30 billion Euros higher in the ETS compared to the CPS. Positive employment impacts are in the range of 200 thousand additional jobs. Energy efficiency improvements increasingly contribute via reduced energy imports in the long term.
Journal Article
Employment Effects of Renewable Energy Expansion on a Regional Level—First Results of a Model-Based Approach for Germany
National studies have shown that both gross and net effects of the expansion of energy from renewable sources on employment are positive for Germany. These modeling approaches also revealed that this holds true for both present and future perspectives under certain assumptions on the development of exports, fossil fuel prices and national politics. Yet how are employment effects distributed within Germany? What components contribute to growth impacts on a regional level? To answer these questions (new) methods of regionalization were explored and developed for the example “wind energy onshore” for Germany’s federal states. The main goal was to develop a methodology which is applicable to all renewable energy technologies in future research. For the quantification and projection, it was necessary to distinguish between jobs generated by domestic investments and exports on the one hand, and jobs for operation and maintenance of existing plants on the other hand. Further, direct and indirect employment is analyzed. The results show, that gross employment is particularly high in the northwestern regions of Germany. However, especially the indirect effects are spread out over the whole country. Regions in the south not only profit from the delivery of specific components, but also from other industry and service inputs.
Journal Article
Behavioural, Electrophysiological and Neurostimulatory Investigations into Developmental Prosopagnosia
Developmental prosopagnosia (DP) is the difficulty or inability to recognise a face and may affect up to 2.9 percent of the population. There is controversy over whether these impairments are perceptual or memorial in nature, and uncertainty about their stability over time and how to remediate symptoms. In the first stage, a battery of ten tests was assembled to assess a wide range of face recognition skills in DP (n = 11) and compared to a control group (Chapter Two). The majority of DPs showed no signs of impaired face perception but profound face memory deficits. To seek electrophysiological corroboration of these impairments, the DPs (n = 8) were given three behavioural tasks known to elicit specific event related potentials (Chapter Three), assessing face perception (N170), face familiarity (N250r) and semantic access (N400). During the experiment, caloric vestibular stimulation (CVS) was also administered to see if it could reduce symptoms. The tasks revealed intact face perception and impaired accuracy in both memory based tasks, corroborated by an atypical N400. Subtle effects of CVS were observed in all measures of the face familiarity task but not at a level that was clinically relevant. To establish, for the first time, whether the impairments in DP are consistent over time, the effects in Chapter Three were replicated (n = 7)(Chapter Four). A similar pattern emerged and test-retest correlations showed high reliability overtime in the familiarity task but not the semantic access task. This implies that reliable 'diagnosis' of developmental prosopagnosia should be based on judgements of face familiarity and not associated with semantic activity. The beneficial effects of CVS were again present in the N250r behavioural measures and were limited to familiar faces only. This implies that CVS is optimising memory recall for face representations. The source of impairments was consistently shown to be memorial in nature and future studies may wish to explore further divisions of memory in DP such as whether impairments are associated with encoding or recall. The thesis also demonstrates the potential for CVS as both a therapeutic tool and cognitive enhancer, and justify more robust trials investigation.
Dissertation
Economic Impacts of Renewable Energy Increase in Germany
The positive impacts of an increasing share of renewable energy (RE) on the mitigation of climate change as well as on the decrease of the dependence of energy imports are indisputable. Currently, more than 350,000 people work in the respective industries in Germany. The contribution explains the calculation of gross employment comprising direct and indirect jobs in the facility production, operation, and maintenance and fuel production. The number of jobs in the field has more than doubled from 2004, when the first calculation has been done. However, also increasing are the additional costs of heat and electricity generation from most renewable energy sources (RES). For a stable economic development, the overall balance of positive and negative effects under different possible future development pathways of fossil fuel prices, global climate policies and global trade is of interest. To account for all effects in a consistent framework, a macroeconometric model is employed. Economic development is measured via the comparison of economic indicators such as GDP and employment from different simulation runs. Overall net positive effects can be seen for instance as higher employment in one simulation run compared with the other.
Our analysis shows possible positive impacts of the expansion of renewable energy in Germany—and the conditions and policy implication for a positive development. The German example shows how a large domestic market leads to the development of a successful industry. However, these successes are vulnerable to abrupt policy changes, as experiences with the US industry or the Spanish market and lately the German PV industry show.
Book Chapter
MoveOn“ IV: Effekte eines veränderten Mobilitätsverhaltens auf die Erwerbstätigkeit aus regionaler Perspektive
\"The mobility system is currently undergoing profound change. The results of the MoveOn scenario, which was prepared by the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) and the IAB together with the Gesellschaft für wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS) at the federal level as part of the QuBe project, show that a change in mobility behaviour, i.e. more public passenger transport instead of private transport, more rail transport instead of air transport and more electric cars instead of cars with internal combustion engines, could have a positive, albeit small, effect on economic growth and employment in the long term. Overall, this will result in 60,000 more people being employed in 2040 than in the baseline projection. According to this scenario, the fear that a modernised and environmentally friendly mobility system would lead to high employment losses would therefore not come true. Analyses at the regional level are lacking so far. The results of this report for 34 labour market regions show that the greatest positive effects on employment development can be expected in Berlin. The Dusseldorf/Ruhr and Hamburg regions also benefit noticeably, as in Berlin especially in the economic sector \"land transport and transport in pipelines\". The greatest employment gains in these regions are due to the changed modal split in passenger transport, i.e. a changing use and combination of the various means of transport. This is more noticeable in metropolises than in rural areas. The expected reduction in demand for vehicle repair services and a likely change in occupational demand due to the switch to autonomous driving will lead to a loss in employment in all regions. Even if only slightly, the majority of regions in the north and east are negatively affected by the mobility transition. Large metropolitan regions are predominantly winners of the change in mobility, although there is certainly a greater need to catch up in more rural areas.
Paper