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Understanding the present and future distribution of soil-borne plant pathogens is critical to supporting food and fibre production in a warmer world. Using data from a global field survey and a nine-year field experiment, we show that warmer temperatures increase the relative abundance of soil-borne potential fungal plant pathogens. Moreover, we provide a global atlas of these organisms along with future distribution projections under different climate change and land-use scenarios. These projections show an overall increase in the relative abundance of potential plant pathogens worldwide. This work advances our understanding of the global distribution of potential fungal plant pathogens and their sensitivity to ongoing climate and land-use changes, which is fundamental to reduce their incidence and impacts on terrestrial ecosystems globally.Plant pathogens threaten food security and ecosystem health. Projections of potential fungal plant pathogens under different warming and land-use scenarios indicate that warming temperatures under climate change will lead to increases in the relative abundance of such pathogens in most soils worldwide.

The sensitivity of soil microbial respiration to warming (Q10) remains a major source of uncertainty surrounding the projections of soil carbon emissions to the atmosphere as the factors driving Q10 patterns across ecosystems have been assessed in isolation from each other. Here we report the results of a warming experiment using soils from 332 sites across all continents and major biomes to simultaneously evaluate the main drivers of global Q10 patterns. Compared with biochemical recalcitrance, mineral protection, substrate quantity and environmental factors, the soil microbiome (that is, microbial biomass and bacterial taxa) explained the largest portion of variation in Q10 values. Our work provides solid evidence that soil microbiomes largely govern the responses of soil heterotrophic respiration to warming and thus need to be explicitly accounted for when assessing land carbon–climate feedbacks.The authors use experimental data from 332 sites across all major global biomes to evaluate the drivers of soil microbial respiration response to warming. They demonstrate a key role of the soil microbiome, highlighting the need to account for this in assessments of soil respiration under change.

Land-use intensification can increase provisioning ecosystem services, such as food and timber production, but it also drives changes in ecosystem functioning and biodiversity loss, which may ultimately compromise human wellbeing. To understand how changes in land-use intensity affect the relationships between biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and services, we built networks from correlations between the species richness of 16 trophic groups, 10 ecosystem functions, and 15 ecosystem services. We evaluated how the properties of these networks varied across land-use intensity gradients for 150 forests and 150 grasslands. Land-use intensity significantly affected network structure in both habitats. Changes in connectance were larger in forests, while changes in modularity and evenness were more evident in grasslands. Our results show that increasing land-use intensity leads to more homogeneous networks with less integration within modules in both habitats, driven by the belowground compartment in grasslands, while forest responses to land management were more complex. Land-use intensity strongly altered hub identity and module composition in both habitats, showing that the positive correlations of provisioning services with biodiversity and ecosystem functions found at low land-use intensity levels, decline at higher intensity levels. Our approach provides a comprehensive view of the relationships between multiple components of biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and ecosystem services and how they respond to land use. This can be used to identify overall changes in the ecosystem, to derive mechanistic hypotheses, and it can be readily applied to further global change drivers.

The divergence between agricultural water use and the annual supply of water resources (water gap) has been increasing for decades. The forecast is that this water gap will continue to widen, compromising the water security of a large share of the global population. On the one hand, the increase in demand is attributed to an ever-growing population that, in addition, is adopting a high-water consumption per capita lifestyle (e.g., meat-rich diet, increased use of biofuels and of irrigated agriculture). On the other hand, climate change is increasing aridification and the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of precipitation worldwide. The water gap is particularly acute in drylands, where development and food security has been based on the massive exploitation of water resources, particularly groundwater. Here we analyze the mechanisms underlying this water gap, which is mainly driven by water use in agriculture, and suggest suitable solutions that can help to close it. Using causal diagrams, we show how population generates different demands that create a water gap that prevailing supply-side solutions cannot close. Indeed, it has been widening over the years because water consumption has grown exponentially. This behaviour is explained by a series of mechanisms that it is necessary to understand to realize the complexity of water scarcity problems. For solving the water gap, we propose and exemplify eight lines of action that can be combined and tailored to each territory. Our analyses corroborate the urgent need to plan an integral management of water resources to avoid widespread scenarios of water scarcity under future climatic conditions.

This manuscript developed from discussions within the German Centre of Integrative Biodiversity Research funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG FZT118). CAG and NE acknowledge funding by iDiv (DFG FZT118) Flexpool proposal 34600850. C.A.G., A.H.B., J.S., A.C., N.G.R., S.C., L.B., M.C.R., F.B., J.O., G.P., H.R.P.P., M.W., T.W., K.K., and N.E. acknowledge funding by iDiv (DFG FZT118) Flexpool proposal 34600844. N.E. acknowledges funding by the DFG (FOR 1451) and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 677232). Finally we would like to acknowledge the contribution of all the authors that provided their datasets for analysis within this paper. Open access funding provided by Projekt DEAL.

Increasing the number of environmental stressors could decrease ecosystem functioning in soils. Yet this relationship has not been globally assessed outside laboratory experiments. Here, using two independent global standardized field surveys, and a range of natural and human factors, we test the relationship between the number of environmental stressors exceeding different critical thresholds and the maintenance of multiple ecosystem services across biomes. Our analysis shows that having multiple stressors, from medium levels (>50%), negatively and significantly correlates with impacts on ecosystem services and that having multiple stressors crossing a high-level critical threshold (over 75% of maximum observed levels) reduces soil biodiversity and functioning globally. The number of environmental stressors exceeding the >75% threshold was consistently seen as an important predictor of multiple ecosystem services, therefore improving prediction of ecosystem functioning. Our findings highlight the need to reduce the dimensionality of the human footprint on ecosystems to conserve biodiversity and function.The authors investigate relationships between various soil stressors that exceed critical thresholds and the maintenance of ecosystem services. They show that multiple stressors crossing a high-level threshold reduces soil functioning and can be consistently used to predict ecosystem functioning.

Identified as essential mechanisms promoting alternative stable states, positive feedbacks have been the focus of most former studies on the potential for catastrophic shifts in drylands. Conversely, little is known about how negative feedbacks could counterbalance the effects of positive feedbacks. A decrease in vegetation cover increases the connectivity of bare-soil areas and entails a global loss of runoff-driven resources from the ecosystem but also a local increase in runoff transferred from bare-soil areas to vegetation patches. In turn, these global resource losses and local resource gains decrease and increase vegetation cover, respectively, resulting in a global positive and a local negative feedback loop. We propose that the interplay of these two interconnected ecohydrological feedbacks of opposite sign determines the vulnerability of dryland ecosystems to catastrophic shifts. To test this hypothesis, we developed a spatially explicit model and assessed the effects of varying combinations of feedback strengths on the dynamics, resilience, recovery potential, and spatial structure of the system. Increasing strengths of the local negative feedback relative to the global positive feedback decreased the risk of catastrophic shifts, facilitated recovery from a degraded state, and promoted the formation of banded vegetation patterns. Both feedbacks were most relevant at low vegetation cover due to the nonlinear increase in hydrological connectivity with decreasing vegetation. Our modelling results suggest that catastrophic shifts to degraded states are less likely in drylands with strong source–sink dynamics and/or strong response of vegetation growth to resource redistribution and that feedback manipulation can be useful to enhance dryland restoration.

Ongoing global warming is expected to augment soil respiration by increasing microbial activity, driving self-reinforcing feedback to climate change. However, the compensatory thermal adaptation of soil microorganisms and substrate depletion may weaken the effects of rising temperature on soil respiration. To test this hypothesis, we collected soils along a large-scale forest transect in eastern China spanning a natural temperature gradient, and incubated the soils at different temperatures with or without substrate addition. We combined the exponential thermal response function and a data-driven model to study the interaction effect of thermal adaptation and substrate availability on microbial respiration and compared our results to those from two additional continental and global independent datasets. Modelled results suggested that the effect of thermal adaptation on microbial respiration was greater in areas with higher mean annual temperatures, consistent with the compensatory response to warming. In addition, the effect of thermal adaptation on microbial respiration was greater under substrate addition than under substrate depletion, which was also true for the independent datasets reanalyzed using our approach. Our results indicate that thermal adaptation in warmer regions could exert a more pronounced negative impact on microbial respiration when substrate availability is abundant. These findings improve the body of knowledge on how substrate availability influences soil microbial community-temperature interactions, which could improve estimates of projected soil carbon losses to the atmosphere through respiration.

F.T.M. was supported by European Research Council grant number 647038 (BIODESERT), Generalitat Valenciana grant number CIDEGENT/2018/041, by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (grant numbers EUR2022-134048 and PID2020-116578RB-I00) and by the contract between ETH Zurich and University of Alicante “Mapping terrestrial ecosystem structure at the global scale”. E.G. acknowledges funding from Generalitat Valenciana and Europen Social Fund (grant number APOSTD/2021/188). F.T.M. also acknowledges support from the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) and the KAUST Climate and Livability Initiative. T.S.-S., A.G. and M.D.-B. are supported by grant number TED2021-130908B-C41 (URBANCHANGE). M.D.-B. was also supported by the European Research Council (ERC) grant number 647038 (BIODESERT), BES grant agreement number LRB17\\1019 (MUSGONET), the innovation programme under Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement number 702057 (CLIMIFUN), Ramón y Cajal grant number RYC2018-025483-I, a project from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (grant number PID2020-115813RA-I00; SOIL4GROWTH) and project PAIDI 2020 from the Junta de Andalucía (grant number P20_00879). C.W.M. acknowledges funding for the research provided by the NSF Postdoctoral Fellowship in Polar Regions Research (grant number 0852036), the German Science Foundation (DFG) for financial support in the frame of the “Initiation of International Collaboration” (grant number MU 3021/2-1) and funding within the DFG Priority Programme 1158 “Antarctic Research with Comparable Investigations in Arctic Sea Ice Areas” (grant number MU 3021/8-1). M.B. acknowledges funding from Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through a Ramón y Cajal Fellowship (# RYC2021-031797-I).

Wildfires shape the composition and functioning of Mediterranean ecosystems, but we do not know how these ecosystems respond to both the higher fire recurrence and shorter recovery times expected for future climatic scenarios. We sampled 29 plots with different fire recurrences (from 0 to 4 fires over the past decades) and time since the last fire (up to 35 years; hereafter TSLF) in Southeast Spain, to assess the effect of fire recurrence and TSLF on 25 ecosystem attributes, five related ecosystem services (biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, disturbance regulation, food production, and supporting services), plus the synergies and trade-offs between them. High fire recurrence (number of fires) and TSLF interacted to determine ecosystem services but did not affect the synergies and trade-offs between them. Fire recurrence reduced many ecosystem functions and ecosystem multifunctionality. However, this effect dampened, and even became positive, for biodiversity conservation and food production services provided enough (> 20 years) time to recover. The combined effects of fire recurrence and TSLF, however, reduced carbon sequestration and had no overall effects on supporting services. Disturbance regulation, in turn, diminished drastically with the first fire, with no effect of further fires or their interaction with TSLF. Our results show which ecosystem services will suffer more from an increase in fire recurrence, and where restoration and management efforts should focus to maximize the provision of those services more demanded by stakeholders.