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Our understanding of macroevolutionary patterns of adaptive evolution has greatly increased with the advent of large-scale phylogenetic comparative methods. Widely used Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) models can describe an adaptive process of divergence and selection. However, inference of the dynamics of adaptive landscapes from comparative data is complicated by interpretational difficulties, lack of identifiability among parameter values and the common requirement that adaptive hypotheses must be assigned a priori. Here, we develop a reversible-jump Bayesian method of fitting multioptima OU models to phylogenetic comparative data that estimates the placement and magnitude of adaptive shifts directly from the data. We show how biologically informed hypotheses can be tested against this inferred posterior of shift locations using Bayes Factors to establish whether our a priori models adequately describe the dynamics of adaptive peak shifts. Furthermore, we show how the inclusion of informative priors can be used to restrict models to biologically realistic parameter space and test particular biological interpretations of evolutionary models. We argue that Bayesian model fitting of OU models to comparative data provides a framework for integrating of multiple sources of biological data—such as microevolutionary estimates of selection parameters and paleontological timeseries—allowing inference of adaptive landscape dynamics with explicit, process-based biological interpretations.

Metabolism is the link between ecology and physiology—it dictates the flow of energy through individuals and across trophic levels. Much of the predictive power of metabolic theories of ecology derives from the scaling relationship between organismal size and metabolic rate. There is growing evidence that this scaling relationship is not universal, but we have little knowledge of how it has evolved over macroevolutionary time. Here we develop a novel phylogenetic comparative method to investigate how often and in which clades the macroevolutionary dynamics of the metabolic scaling have changed. We find strong evidence that the metabolic scaling relationship has shifted multiple times across the vertebrate phylogeny. However, shifts are rare and otherwise strongly constrained. Importantly, both the estimated slope and intercept values vary widely across regimes, with slopes that spanned across theoretically predicted values such as 2/3 or 3/4. We further tested whether traits such as ecto-/endothermy, genome size, and quadratic curvature with body mass (i.e., energetic constraints at extreme body sizes) could explain the observed pattern of shifts. Though these factors help explain some of the variation in scaling parameters, much of the remaining variation remains elusive. Our results lay the groundwork for further exploration of the evolutionary and ecological drivers of major transitions in metabolic strategy and for harnessing this information to improve macroecological predictions.

Cyanobacteria have exerted a profound influence on the progressive oxygenation of Earth. As a complementary approach to examining the geologic record-phylogenomic and trait evolutionary analyses of extant species can lead to new insights. We constructed new phylogenomic trees and analyzed phenotypic trait data using novel phylogenetic comparative methods. We elucidated the dynamics of trait evolution in Cyanobacteria over billion-year timescales, and provide evidence that major geologic events in early Earth's history have shaped-and been shaped by-evolution in Cyanobacteria. We identify a robust core cyanobacterial phylogeny and a smaller set of taxa that exhibit long-branch attraction artifacts. We estimated the age of nodes and reconstruct the ancestral character states of 43 phenotypic characters. We find high levels of phylogenetic signal for nearly all traits, indicating the phylogeny carries substantial predictive power. The earliest cyanobacterial lineages likely lived in freshwater habitats, had small cell diameters, were benthic or sessile, and possibly epilithic/endolithic with a sheath. We jointly analyzed a subset of 25 binary traits to determine whether rates of trait evolution have shifted over time in conjunction with major geologic events. Phylogenetic comparative analysis reveal an overriding signal of decreasing rates of trait evolution through time. Furthermore, the data suggest two major rate shifts in trait evolution associated with bursts of evolutionary innovation. The first rate shift occurs in the aftermath of the Great Oxidation Event and \"Snowball Earth\" glaciations and is associated with decrease in the evolutionary rates around 1.8-1.6 Ga. This rate shift seems to indicate the end of a major diversification of cyanobacterial phenotypes-particularly related to traits associated with filamentous morphology, heterocysts and motility in freshwater ecosystems. Another burst appears around the time of the Neoproterozoic Oxidation Event in the Neoproterozoic, and is associated with the acquisition of traits involved in planktonic growth in marine habitats. Our results demonstrate how uniting genomic and phenotypic datasets in extant bacterial species can shed light on billion-year old events in Earth's history.

We lack a comprehensive understanding of evolutionary pattern and process because short-term and long-term data have rarely been combined into a single analytical framework. Here we test alternative models of phenotypic evolution using a dataset of unprecedented size and temporal span (over 8,000 data points). The data are body-size measurements taken from historical studies, the fossil record, and among-species comparative data representing mammals, squamates, and birds. By analyzing this large dataset, we identify stochastic models that can explain evolutionary patterns on both short and long timescales and reveal a remarkably consistent pattern in the timing of divergence across taxonomic groups. Even though rapid, short-term evolution often occurs in intervals shorter than 1 Myr, the changes are constrained and do not accumulate over time. Over longer intervals (1–360 Myr), this pattern of bounded evolution yields to a pattern of increasing divergence with time. The best-fitting model to explain this pattern is a model that combines rare but substantial bursts of phenotypic change with bounded fluctuations on shorter timescales. We suggest that these rare bursts reflect permanent changes in adaptive zones, whereas the short-term fluctuations represent local variations in niche optima due to restricted environmental variation within a stable adaptive zone.

Nonlinear relationships between species and their environments are believed common in ecology and evolution, including during angiosperms’ rise to dominance. Early angiosperms are thought of as woody evergreens restricted to warm, wet habitats. They have since expanded into numerous cold and dry places. This expansion may have included transitions across important environmental thresholds. To understand linear and nonlinear relationships between angiosperm structure and biogeographic distributions, we integrated large datasets of growth habits, conduit sizes, leaf phenologies, evolutionary histories, and environmental limits. We consider current-day patterns and develop a new evolutionary model to investigate processes that created them. The macroecological pattern was clear: herbs had lower minimum temperature and precipitation limits. In woody species, conduit sizes were smaller in evergreens and related to species’ minimum temperatures. Across evolutionary timescales, our new modeling approach found conduit sizes in deciduous species decreased linearly with minimum temperature limits. By contrast, evergreen species had a sigmoidal relationship with minimum temperature limits and an inflection overlapping freezing. These results suggest freezing represented an important threshold for evergreen but not deciduous woody angiosperms. Global success of angiosperms appears tied to a small set of alternative solutions when faced with a novel environmental threshold.

Microbial plankton play a central role in marine biogeochemical cycles, but the timing in which abundant lineages diversified into ocean environments remains unclear. Here, we reconstructed the timeline in which major clades of bacteria and archaea colonized the ocean using a high-resolution benchmarked phylogenetic tree that allows for simultaneous and direct comparison of the ages of multiple divergent lineages. Our findings show that the diversification of the most prevalent marine clades spans throughout a period of 2.2 Ga, with most clades colonizing the ocean during the last 800 million years. The oldest clades – SAR202, SAR324, Ca . Marinimicrobia, and Marine Group II – diversified around the time of the Great Oxidation Event, during which oxygen concentration increased but remained at microaerophilic levels throughout the Mid-Proterozoic, consistent with the prevalence of some clades within these groups in oxygen minimum zones today. We found the diversification of the prevalent heterotrophic marine clades SAR11, SAR116, SAR92, SAR86, and Roseobacter as well as the Marine Group I to occur near to the Neoproterozoic Oxygenation Event (0.8–0.4 Ga). The diversification of these clades is concomitant with an overall increase of oxygen and nutrients in the ocean at this time, as well as the diversification of eukaryotic algae, consistent with the previous hypothesis that the diversification of heterotrophic bacteria is linked to the emergence of large eukaryotic phytoplankton. The youngest clades correspond to the widespread phototrophic clades Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, and Crocosphaera , whose diversification happened after the Phanerozoic Oxidation Event (0.45–0.4 Ga), in which oxygen concentrations had already reached their modern levels in the atmosphere and the ocean. Our work clarifies the timing at which abundant lineages of bacteria and archaea colonized the ocean, thereby providing key insights into the evolutionary history of lineages that comprise the majority of prokaryotic biomass in the modern ocean.

As a result of the process of descent with modification, closely related species tend to be similar to one another in a myriad different ways. In statistical terms, this means that traits measured on one species will not be independent of traits measured on others. Since their introduction in the 1980s, phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs) have been framed as a solution to this problem. In this article, we argue that this way of thinking about PCMs is deeply misleading. Not only has this sowed widespread confusion in the literature about what PCMs are doing but has led us to develop methods that are susceptible to the very thing we sought to build defenses against—unreplicated evolutionary events. Through three Case Studies, we demonstrate that the susceptibility to singular events is indeed a recurring problem in comparative biology that links several seemingly unrelated controversies. In each Case Study, we propose a potential solution to the problem. While the details of our proposed solutions differ, they share a common theme: unifying hypothesis testing with data-driven approaches (which we term “phylogenetic natural history”) to disentangle the impact of singular evolutionary events from that of the factors we are investigating. More broadly, we argue that our field has, at times, been sloppy when weighing evidence in support of causal hypotheses. We suggest that one way to refine our inferences is to re-imagine phylogenies as probabilistic graphical models; adopting this way of thinking will help clarify precisely what we are testing and what evidence supports our claims.

Most existing methods for modeling trait evolution are univariate, although researchers are often interested in investigating evolutionary patterns and processes across multiple traits. Principal components analysis (PCA) is commonly used to reduce the dimensionality of multivariate data so that univariate trait models can be fit to individual principal components. The problem with using standard PCA on phylogenetically structured data has been previously pointed out yet it continues to be widely used in the literature. Here we demonstrate precisely how using standard PCA can mislead inferences: The first few principal components of traits evolved under constant-rate multivariate Brownian motion will appear to have evolved via an \"early burst\" process. A phylogenetic PCA (pPCA) has been proprosed to alleviate these issues. However, when the true model of trait evolution deviates from the model assumed in the calculation of the pPCA axes, we find that the use of pPCA suffers from similar artifacts as standard PCA. We show that data sets with high effective dimensionality are particularly likely to lead to erroneous inferences. Ultimately, all of the problems we report stem from the same underlying issue—by considering only the first few principal components as univariate traits, we are effectively examining a biased sample of a multivariate pattern. These results highlight the need for truly multivariate phylogenetic comparative methods. As these methods are still being developed, we discuss potential alternative strategies for using and interpreting models fit to univariate axes of multivariate data.

Phylogenetic comparative methods are often used to test functional relationships between traits. However, million-year macroevolutionary observational datasets cannot definitively prove causal links between traits—correlation does not equal causation and experimental manipulation over such timescales is impossible. Although this caveat is widely understood, it is less appreciated that different phylogenetic approaches imply different causal assumptions about the functional relationships of traits. To make meaningful inferences, it is critical that our statistical methods make biologically reasonable assumptions. Here we illustrate the importance of causal reasoning in comparative biology by examining a recent study by Avaria-Llautureo et al (2019). that tested for the evolutionary coupling of metabolic rate and body temperature across endotherms and found that these traits were unlinked through evolutionary time and that body temperatures were, on average, higher in the early Cenozoic than they are today. We argue that the causal assumptions embedded into their models made it impossible for them to test the relevant functional and evolutionary hypotheses. We reanalyze their data using more biologically appropriate models and find support for the exact opposite conclusions, corroborating previous evidence from physiology and paleontology. We highlight the vital need for causal thinking, even when experiments are impossible.