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Efficient methods for processing genomic data were developed to increase reliability of estimated breeding values and to estimate thousands of marker effects simultaneously. Algorithms were derived and computer programs tested with simulated data for 2,967 bulls and 50,000 markers distributed randomly across 30 chromosomes. Estimation of genomic inbreeding coefficients required accurate estimates of allele frequencies in the base population. Linear model predictions of breeding values were computed by 3 equivalent methods: 1) iteration for individual allele effects followed by summation across loci to obtain estimated breeding values, 2) selection index including a genomic relationship matrix, and 3) mixed model equations including the inverse of genomic relationships. A blend of first- and second-order Jacobi iteration using 2 separate relaxation factors converged well for allele frequencies and effects. Reliability of predicted net merit for young bulls was 63% compared with 32% using the traditional relationship matrix. Nonlinear predictions were also computed using iteration on data and nonlinear regression on marker deviations; an additional (about 3%) gain in reliability for young bulls increased average reliability to 66%. Computing times increased linearly with number of genotypes. Estimation of allele frequencies required 2 processor days, and genomic predictions required <1 d per trait, and traits were processed in parallel. Information from genotyping was equivalent to about 20 daughters with phenotypic records. Actual gains may differ because the simulation did not account for linkage disequilibrium in the base population or selection in subsequent generations.

Genetic progress will increase when breeders examine genotypes in addition to pedigrees and phenotypes. Genotypes for 38,416 markers and August 2003 genetic evaluations for 3,576 Holstein bulls born before 1999 were used to predict January 2008 daughter deviations for 1,759 bulls born from 1999 through 2002. Genotypes were generated using the Illumina BovineSNP50 BeadChip and DNA from semen contributed by US and Canadian artificial-insemination organizations to the Cooperative Dairy DNA Repository. Genomic predictions for 5 yield traits, 5 fitness traits, 16 conformation traits, and net merit were computed using a linear model with an assumed normal distribution for marker effects and also using a nonlinear model with a heavier tailed prior distribution to account for major genes. The official parent average from 2003 and a 2003 parent average computed from only the subset of genotyped ancestors were combined with genomic predictions using a selection index. Combined predictions were more accurate than official parent averages for all 27 traits. The coefficients of determination (R2) were 0.05 to 0.38 greater with nonlinear genomic predictions included compared with those from parent average alone. Linear genomic predictions had R2 values similar to those from nonlinear predictions but averaged just 0.01 lower. The greatest benefits of genomic prediction were for fat percentage because of a known gene with a large effect. The R2 values were converted to realized reliabilities by dividing by mean reliability of 2008 daughter deviations and then adding the difference between published and observed reliabilities of 2003 parent averages. When averaged across all traits, combined genomic predictions had realized reliabilities that were 23% greater than reliabilities of parent averages (50 vs. 27%), and gains in information were equivalent to 11 additional daughter records. Reliability increased more by doubling the number of bulls genotyped than the number of markers genotyped. Genomic prediction improves reliability by tracing the inheritance of genes even with small effects.

Nearly 57,000 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) genotyped with the Illumina BovineSNP50 BeadChip (Illumina Inc., San Diego, CA) were investigated to determine usefulness of the associated SNP for genomic prediction. Genotypes were obtained for 12,591 bulls and cows, and SNP were selected based on 5,503 bulls with genotypes from a larger set of SNP. The following SNP were deleted: 6,572 that were monomorphic, 3,213 with scoring problems (primarily because of poor definition of clusters and excess number of clusters), and 3,649 with a minor allele frequency of <2%. Number of SNP for each minor allele frequency class (≥2%) was fairly uniform (777 to 1,004). For 5 contiguous SNP assigned to chromosome 7, no bulls were heterozygous, which indicated that those SNP are actually on the nonpseudoautosomal portion of the X chromosome. Another 178 SNP that were not assigned to a chromosome but that had many fewer heterozygotes than expected were also assigned to the X chromosome. Existence of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium was investigated by comparing observed with expected heterozygosity. For 11 SNP, the observed percentage of heterozygous individuals differed from the expected by >15%; therefore, those SNP were deleted. For 2,628 SNP, the genotype at another SNP was highly correlated (i.e., genotypes were identical for >99.5% of bulls), and those were deleted. After edits, 40,874 SNP remained. A parent–progeny conflict was declared when the genotypes were alternate homozygotes. Mean number of conflicts was 2.3 when pedigree was correct and 2,411 when it was incorrect. The sire was genotyped for >93% of animals. Maternal grandsire genotype was similarly checked; however, because alternate homozygotes could be valid, a conflict threshold of 16% was used to indicate a need for further investigation. Genotyping consistency was investigated for 21 bulls genotyped twice with differences primarily from SNP that were not scored in one of the genotypes. Concordance for readable SNP was extremely high (99.96–100%). Thousands of SNP that were polymorphic in Holsteins were monomorphic in Jerseys or Brown Swiss, which indicated that breed-specific SNP sets are required or that all breeds need to be considered in the SNP selection process. Genotypes from the Illumina BovineSNP50 BeadChip are of high accuracy and provide the basis for genomic evaluations in the United States and Canada.

Genetic effects for many dairy traits and for total economic merit are evenly distributed across all chromosomes. A high-density scan using 38,416 single nucleotide polymorphism markers for 5,285 bulls confirmed 2 previously known major genes on Bos taurus autosomes (BTA) 6 and 14 but revealed few other large effects. Markers on BTA18 had the largest effects on calving ease, several conformation traits, longevity, and total merit. Prediction accuracy was highest using a heavy-tailed prior assuming that each marker had an effect on each trait, rather than assuming a normal distribution of effects as in a linear model, or that only some loci have nonzero effects. A prior model combining heavy tails with finite alleles produced results that were intermediate compared with the individual models. Differences between models were small (1 to 2%) for traits with no major genes and larger for heavy tails with traits having known quantitative trait loci (QTL; 6 to 8%). Analysis of bull recessive codes suggested that marker effects from genomic selection may be used to identify regions of chromosomes to search in detail for candidate genes, but individual single nucleotide polymorphisms were not tracking causative mutations with the exception of diacylglycerol O-acyltransferase 1. Additive genetic merits were constructed for each chromosome, and the distribution of BTA14-specific estimated breeding value (EBV) showed that selection primarily for milk yield has not changed the distribution of EBV for fat percentage even in the presence of a known QTL. Such chromosomal EBV also may be useful for identifying complementary mates in breeding programs. The QTL affecting dystocia, conformation, and economic merit on BTA18 appear to be related to calf size or birth weight and may be the result of longer gestation lengths. Results validate quantitative genetic assumptions that most traits are due to the contributions of a large number of genes of small additive effect, rather than support the finite locus model.

A national fertility evaluation was developed based on pregnancy rate, which measures the percentage of nonpregnant cows becoming pregnant within each 21-d opportunity period. Data for evaluation are days open, which are calculated as date pregnant minus previous calving date. Date pregnant is determined from last reported breeding or from subsequent calving minus expected gestation length. Success or failure of last breeding can be confirmed by veterinary diagnosis or a report that the cow was sold because of infertility. Data are adjusted for parity and calving season within geographic region and time period and evaluated. Fertility records are considered complete at 250 d in milk, and lower and upper limits of 50 and 250 d are applied to days open. For calculation of genetic evaluations, days open are converted to pregnancy rate by the linear formula pregnancy rate = 0.25 (233-days open). Evaluations are expressed as predicted transmitting ability for daughter pregnancy rate, and calculation is done with an animal model. Genetic correlations among several fertility measures and other evaluated traits were estimated from 3 large data sets. Correlation with days open was less for nonreturn rate than for days to first breeding, probably because nonreturn rate had lower heritability. Cow fertility was negatively correlated with yield but is a major component of longevity. Thus, recent selection for longevity may have slowed the long-term decline in fertility. Direct selection for fertility could halt or reverse the decline.

Genetic and environmental factors that might affect gestation length (GL) were investigated. Data included information from >11million parturitions from 1999 through 2006 for 7 US dairy breeds. Effects examined were year, herd-year, month, and age within parity of conception; parturition code (sex and multiple-birth status); lactation length and standardized milk yield of cow; service sire; cow sire; and cow. All effects were fixed except for service sire, cow sire, and cow. Mean GL for heifers and cows, respectively, were 277.8 and 279.4 d for Holsteins, 278.4 and 280.0 d for Jerseys, 279.3 and 281.1 d for Milking Shorthorns, 281.6 and 281.7 d for Ayrshires, 284.8 and 285.7 d for Guernseys, and 287.2 and 287.5 d for Brown Swiss. Estimated standard deviations of GL were greatly affected by data restrictions but generally were approximately 5 to 6 d. Year effects on GL were extremely small, but month effects were moderate. For Holstein cows, GL was 2.0 d shorter for October conceptions than for January and February conceptions; 4.7 and 5.6 d shorter for multiple births of the same sex than for single-birth females and males, respectively; 0.8 d longer for lactations of ≤250 d than for lactations of ≥501 d; and 0.6 d shorter for standardized yield of ≤8,000kg than for yield of ≥14,001kg. Estimates for GL heritability from parities 2 to 5 were 33 to 36% for service sire and 7 to 12% for cow sire; corresponding estimates from parity 1 were 46 to 47% and 10 to 12%. Estimates of genetic correlations between effects of service sire and cow sire on GL were 0.70 to 0.85 for Brown Swiss, Holsteins, and Jerseys, which indicates that those traits likely are controlled by many of the same genes and can be used to evaluate each other. More accurate prediction of calving dates can help dairy producers to meet management requirements of pregnant animals and to administer better health care during high-risk phases of animals’ lives. However, intentional selection for either shorter or longer GL is not recommended without consideration of its possible effect on other dependent traits (e.g., calving ease and stillbirth).

Genetic selection has made dairy cows more profit-able producers of milk. Genetic evaluations began with 2 traits measured on a few cows but now include many traits measured on millions of cows. Selection indexes from USDA included yield traits beginning in 1971, productive life and somatic cell score beginning in 1994, conformation traits in 2000, and cow fertility and calving ease in 2003. This latest revision of net merit should result in 2% more progress, worth $5 million/yr nationally, with improved cow health and fitness, but slightly less progress for yield. Fertility and longevity evaluations have similar reliability because cows can have several fertility records, each with lower heritability, compared with one longevity record with higher heritability. Lifetime profit can be estimated more accurately if less heritable traits are evaluated and included instead of ignored. Milk volume has a positive value for fluid use, but a negative value for cheese production. Thus, multiple selection indexes are needed for different markets and production systems. Breeding programs should estimate future rather than current costs and prices. Many other nations have derived selection indexes similar to US net merit.

We report putative quantitative trait loci affecting female fertility and milk production traits using the merged data from two research groups that conducted independent genome scans in Dairy Bull DNA Repository grandsire families to identify quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting economically important traits. Six families used by both groups had been genotyped for 367 microsatellite markers covering 2713.5 cM of the cattle genome (90%), with an average spacing of 7.4 cM. Phenotypic traits included PTA for pregnancy rate and daughter deviations for milk, protein and fat yields, protein and fat percentages, somatic cell score, and productive life. Analysis of the merged dataset identified putative quantitative trait loci that were not detected in the separate studies, and the pregnancy rate PTA estimates that recently became available allowed detection of pregnancy rate QTL for the first time. Sixty-one putative significant marker effects were identified within families, and 13 were identified across families. Highly significant effects were found on chromosome 3 affecting fat percentage and protein yield, on chromosome 6 affecting protein and fat percentages, on chromosome 14 affecting fat percentage, on chromosome 18 affecting pregnancy rate, and on chromosome 20 affecting protein percentage. Within-family analysis detected putative QTL associated with pregnancy rate on six chromosomes, with the effect on chromosome 18 being the most significant statistically. These findings may help identify the most useful markers available for QTL detection and, eventually, for marker-assisted selection for improvement of these economically important traits.

Modeling extended lactations for the US Holsteins is useful because a majority (>55%) of the cows in the present population produce lactations longer than 305 d. In this study, 9 empirical and mechanistic models were compared for their suitability for modeling 305-d and 999-d lactations of US Holsteins. A pooled data set of 4,266,597 test-day yields from 427,657 (305-d complete) lactation records from the AIPL-USDA database was used for model fitting. The empirical models included Wood (WD), Wilmink (WIL), Rook (RK), monophasic (MONO), diphasic (DIPH), and lactation persistency (LPM) functions; Dijkstra (DJ), Pollott (POL), and new-multiphasic (MULT) models comprised the mechanistic counterparts. Each model was separately tested on 305-d (>280 days in milk) and 999-d (>800 days in milk) lactations for cows in first parity and those in third and greater parities. All models were found to produce a significant fit for all 4 scenarios (2 parity groups and 2 lactation lengths). However, the resulting parameter estimates for the 4 scenarios were different. All models except MONO, DIPH, and LPM yielded residuals with absolute values smaller than 2kg for the entire period of the 305-d lactations. For the extended lactations, the prediction errors were larger. However, the RK, DJ, POL, and MULT models were able to predict daily yield within a±3kg range for the entire 999-d period. The POL and MULT models (having 6 and 12 parameters, respectively) produced the lowest mean square error and Bayesian information criteria values, although the differences from the other models were small. Conversely, POL and MULT were often associated with poor convergence and highly correlated, unreliable, or biologically atypical parameter estimates. Considering the computational problems of large mechanistic models and the relative predictive ability of the other models, smaller models such as RK, DJ, and WD were recommended as sufficient for modeling extended lactations unless mechanistic details on the extended curves are needed. The recommended models were also satisfactory in describing fat and protein yields of 305-d and 999-d lactations of all parities.

Cows with high persistency tend to produce less milk than expected at the beginning of lactation and more than expected at the end. Best prediction of persistency was calculated as a function of a trait-specific standard lactation curve and a linear regression of test-day deviations on days in milk. Regression coefficients were deviations from a balance point to make yield and persistency phenotypically uncorrelated. The objectives of this study were to calculate (co)variance components and breeding values for best predictions of persistency of milk (PM), fat (PF), protein (PP), and SCS (PSCS) in Holstein cows. Data included 8,682,138 lactations from 4,375,938 cows calving since 1997, and 39,354 sires were evaluated. Sire estimated breeding values (EBV) for PM, PF, and PP were similar and ranged from −0.70 to 0.75 for PM; EBV for PSCS ranged from −0.37 to 0.28. Regressions of sire EBV on birth year were near zero (<0.003) but positive for PM, PF, and PP, and negative for PSCS. Genetic correlations of PM, PF, and PP with PSCS were moderate and favorable, indicating that increasing SCS decreases yield traits, as expected. Genetic correlations among yield and persistency were low to moderate and ranged from −0.09 (PSCS) to 0.18 (PF). This definition of persistency may be more useful than those used in test-day models, which are often correlated with yield. Routine genetic evaluations for persistency are feasible and may allow for improved predictions of yield traits. As calving intervals increase, persistency may have greater value.