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The fracture risk assessment tool, FRAX®, was released in 2008 and provides country-specific algorithms for estimating individualized 10-year probability of hip and major osteoporotic fracture (hip, clinical spine, distal forearm, and proximal humerus). Since its release, 71 models have been made available for 66 countries covering more than 80% of the world population. The website receives approximately 3 million visits annually. Following independent validation, FRAX has been incorporated into more than 80 guidelines worldwide. The application of FRAX in assessment guidelines has been heterogeneous with the adoption of several different approaches in setting intervention thresholds. Whereas most guidelines adopt a case-finding strategy, the case for FRAX-based community screening in the elderly is increasing. The relationship between FRAX and efficacy of intervention has been explored and is expected to influence treatment guidelines in the future.

Puberty is a critical period for bone mass accrual, and late puberty in boys is associated with reduced bone mass in adult men. The role of variations in pubertal timing within the normal range for adult fracture risk in men is, however, unknown. We, therefore, assessed the association between age at peak height velocity (PHV), an objective measure of pubertal timing, and fracture risk in adult men. In the BMI Epidemiology Study Gothenburg, 31,971 Swedish men born between January 1, 1945, and December 31, 1961, with detailed growth data (height and weight) available from centrally archived school healthcare records and the conscription register were followed until December 31, 2016. Age at PHV was calculated according to a modified infancy-childhood-puberty model, and fracture information was retrieved from the Swedish National Patient Register. The mean ± SD age at PHV was 14.1 ± 1.1 years. In total, 5,872 men (18.4%) sustained at least 1 fracture after 20 years of age and 5,731 men (17.9%) sustained a non-vertebral fracture after 20 years of age during a mean ± SD follow-up of 37.3 ± 11.7 years. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for birth year and country of origin revealed that age at PHV was associated with the risk of any fracture and non-vertebral fracture. Participants with age at PHV in the highest tertile (after 14.5 years of age) were at greater risk of any fracture (hazard ratio [HR] 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.22, P < 0.001) and non-vertebral fracture (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.09-1.24, P < 0.001) compared with those with age at PHV in the lowest tertile (at 13.6 years of age or younger). Additional adjustments for birthweight, childhood BMI, adult educational level, and young adult height did not attenuate the associations between age at PHV and adult fracture risk. Limitations of this study include the inability to adjust for important risk factors for fracture, inadequate power to assess the relation between pubertal timing and specific fracture types, and the limited generalizability to other populations. In this study, we observed that late pubertal timing was associated with increased adult fracture risk in men. These findings suggest that information on pubertal timing might aid in the identification of those men at greatest risk of fracture.

Abstract Context It is important to identify patients at highest risk of fractures. Objective To compare the separate and combined performances of bone-related genetic risk scores (GRSs) for prediction of forearm, hip and vertebral fractures separately, as well as of trabecular and cortical bone microstructure parameters separately. Design, Setting, and Participants Using 1103 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) independently associated with estimated bone mineral density of the heel (eBMD), we developed a weighted GRS for eBMD and determined its contribution to fracture prediction beyond 2 previously developed GRSs for femur neck BMD (49 SNPs) and lumbar spine BMD (48 SNPs). Associations between these GRSs and forearm (ncases = 1020; ncontrols = 2838), hip (ncases = 1123; ncontrols = 2630) and vertebral (ncases = 288; ncontrols = 1187) fractures were evaluated in 3 Swedish cohorts. Associations between the GRSs and trabecular and cortical bone microstructure parameters (n = 426) were evaluated in the MrOS Sweden cohort. Results We found that eBMDGRS was the only significant independent predictor of forearm and vertebral fractures while both FN-BMDGRS and eBMDGRS were significant independent predictors of hip fractures. The eBMDGRS was the major GRS contributing to prediction of trabecular bone microstructure parameters while both FN-BMDGRS and eBMDGRS contributed information for prediction of cortical bone microstructure parameters. Conclusions The eBMDGRS independently predicts forearm and vertebral fractures while both FN-BMDGRS and eBMDGRS contribute independent information for prediction of hip fractures. We propose that eBMDGRS captures unique information about trabecular bone microstructure useful for prediction of forearm and vertebral fractures. These findings may facilitate personalized medicine to predict site-specific fractures as well as cortical and trabecular bone microstructure separately.

  Summary A greater propensity to falling is associated with higher fracture risk. This study provides adjustments to FRAX-based fracture probabilities accounting for the number of prior falls. Introduction Prior falls increase subsequent fracture risk but are not currently directly included in the FRAX tool. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of the number of prior falls on the 10-year probability of fracture determined with FRAX®. Methods We studied 21,116 women and men age 40 years or older (mean age 65.7 ± 10.1 years) with fracture probability assessment (FRAX®), self-reported falls for the previous year, and subsequent fracture outcomes in a registry-based cohort. The risks of death, hip fracture, and non-hip major osteoporotic fracture (MOF-NH) were determined by Cox proportional hazards regression for fall number category versus the whole population (i.e., an average number of falls). Ten-year probabilities of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) were determined according to the number of falls from the hazards of death and fracture incorporated into the FRAX model for the UK. The probability ratios (number of falls vs. average number of falls) provided adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of falls. Results Compared with the average number of falls, the hazard ratios for hip fracture, MOF-NH and death were lower than unity in the absence of a fall history. Hazard ratios increased progressively with an increasing number of reported falls. The probability ratio rose progressively as the number of reported falls increased. Probability ratios decreased with age, an effect that was more marked the greater the number of prior falls. Conclusion The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of prior falls.

Abstract SummaryIn a combined analysis of 25,389 postmenopausal women aged 50–79 years, enrolled in the two Women’s Health Initiative hormone therapy trials, menopausal hormone therapy vs. placebo reduced the risk of fracture regardless of baseline FRAX fracture probability and falls history.IntroductionThe aim of this study was to determine if the anti-fracture efficacy of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) differed by baseline falls history or fracture risk probability as estimated by FRAX, in a combined analysis of the two Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) hormone therapy trials.MethodsA total of 25,389 postmenopausal women aged 50–79 years were randomized to receive MHT (n = 12,739) or matching placebo (n = 12,650). At baseline, questionnaires were used to collect information on falls history, within the last 12 months, and clinical risk factors. FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) was calculated without BMD. Incident clinical fractures were verified using medical records. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between treatment and fractures in (1) the whole cohort; (2) those with prior falls; and (3) those without prior falls. The effect of baseline FRAX probability on efficacy was investigated in the whole cohort.ResultsOver 4.3 ± 2.1 years (mean ± SD), MHT (vs. placebo) significantly reduced the risk of any clinical fracture (hazard ratio [HR] 0.72 [95% CI, 0.65–0.78]), MOF (HR 0.60 [95% CI, 0.53–0.69]), and hip fracture (0.66 [95% CI, 0.45–0.96]). Treatment was effective in reducing the risk of any clinical fracture, MOF, and hip fracture in women regardless of baseline FRAX MOF probability, with no evidence of an interaction between MHT and FRAX (p > 0.30). Similarly, there was no interaction (p > 0.30) between MHT and prior falls.ConclusionIn the combined WHI trials, compared to placebo, MHT reduces fracture risk regardless of FRAX probability and falls history in postmenopausal women.

Obesity in men is associated with low serum testosterone and both are associated with several diseases and increased mortality. Examine the direction and causality of the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and serum testosterone. Bi-directional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis on prospective cohorts. Five cohorts from Denmark, Germany and Sweden (Inter99, SHIP, SHIP Trend, GOOD and MrOS Sweden). 7446 Caucasian men, genotyped for 97 BMI-associated SNPs and three testosterone-associated SNPs. BMI and serum testosterone adjusted for age, smoking, time of blood sampling and site. 1 SD genetically instrumented increase in BMI was associated with a 0.25 SD decrease in serum testosterone (IV ratio: -0.25, 95% CI: -0.42--0.09, p = 2.8*10-3). For a body weight reduction altering the BMI from 30 to 25 kg/m2, the effect would equal a 13% increase in serum testosterone. No association was seen for genetically instrumented testosterone with BMI, a finding that was confirmed using large-scale data from the GIANT consortium (n = 104349). Our results suggest that there is a causal effect of BMI on serum testosterone in men. Population level interventions to reduce BMI are expected to increase serum testosterone in men.

Abstract SummaryThe risk of a recurrent fragility fracture is high following a first fracture and higher still with more than one prior fracture. This study provides adjustments to FRAX-based fracture probabilities accounting for the number of prior fractures.IntroductionPrior fractures increase subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of the number of prior fractures on the 10-year probability of fracture determined with FRAX®.MethodsThe study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Ten-year probabilities of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) were determined according to the number of prior osteoporotic fractures over a 20-year interval from the hazards of death and fracture. Fracture probabilities were also computed for a prior osteoporotic fracture irrespective of the number of previous fractures. The probability ratios provided adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of prior fractures.ResultsProbability ratios to adjust 10-year FRAX probabilities of a hip fracture and MOF increased with the number of prior fractures but decreased with age in both men and women. Probability ratios were similar in men and women and for hip fracture and MOF. Mean probability ratios according to the number of prior fractures for all scenarios were 0.95, 1.08, 1.21 and 1.35, for 1,2, 3 and 4 or more prior fractures, respectively. Thus, a simple rule of thumb is to downward adjust FRAX-based fracture probabilities by 5% in the presence of a single prior fracture and to uplift probabilities by 10, 20 and 30% with a history of 2, 3 and 4 or more prior fractures, respectively.ConclusionThe probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the number of prior fractures.

Most previous genetic epidemiology studies within the field of osteoporosis have focused on the genetics of the complex trait areal bone mineral density (aBMD), not being able to differentiate genetic determinants of cortical volumetric BMD (vBMD), trabecular vBMD, and bone microstructural traits. The objective of this study was to separately identify genetic determinants of these bone traits as analysed by peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT). Separate GWA meta-analyses for cortical and trabecular vBMDs were performed. The cortical vBMD GWA meta-analysis (n = 5,878) followed by replication (n = 1,052) identified genetic variants in four separate loci reaching genome-wide significance (RANKL, rs1021188, p = 3.6×10⁻¹⁴; LOC285735, rs271170, p = 2.7×10⁻¹²; OPG, rs7839059, p = 1.2×10⁻¹⁰; and ESR1/C6orf97, rs6909279, p = 1.1×10⁻⁹). The trabecular vBMD GWA meta-analysis (n = 2,500) followed by replication (n = 1,022) identified one locus reaching genome-wide significance (FMN2/GREM2, rs9287237, p = 1.9×10⁻⁹). High-resolution pQCT analyses, giving information about bone microstructure, were available in a subset of the GOOD cohort (n = 729). rs1021188 was significantly associated with cortical porosity while rs9287237 was significantly associated with trabecular bone fraction. The genetic variant in the FMN2/GREM2 locus was associated with fracture risk in the MrOS Sweden cohort (HR per extra T allele 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.60-0.93) and GREM2 expression in human osteoblasts. In conclusion, five genetic loci associated with trabecular or cortical vBMD were identified. Two of these (FMN2/GREM2 and LOC285735) are novel bone-related loci, while the other three have previously been reported to be associated with aBMD. The genetic variants associated with cortical and trabecular bone parameters differed, underscoring the complexity of the genetics of bone parameters. We propose that a genetic variant in the RANKL locus influences cortical vBMD, at least partly, via effects on cortical porosity, and that a genetic variant in the FMN2/GREM2 locus influences GREM2 expression in osteoblasts and thereby trabecular number and thickness as well as fracture risk.

Previous genome-wide association (GWA) studies have identified SNPs associated with areal bone mineral density (aBMD). However, this measure is influenced by several different skeletal parameters, such as periosteal expansion, cortical bone mineral density (BMD(C)) cortical thickness, trabecular number, and trabecular thickness, which may be under distinct biological and genetic control. We have carried out a GWA and replication study of BMD(C), as measured by peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT), a more homogenous and valid measure of actual volumetric bone density. After initial GWA meta-analysis of two cohorts (ALSPAC n = 999, aged ∼15 years and GOOD n = 935, aged ∼19 years), we attempted to replicate the BMD(C) associations that had p<1×10(-5) in an independent sample of ALSPAC children (n = 2803) and in a cohort of elderly men (MrOS Sweden, n = 1052). The rs1021188 SNP (near RANKL) was associated with BMD(C) in all cohorts (overall p = 2×10(-14), n = 5739). Each minor allele was associated with a decrease in BMD(C) of ∼0.14SD. There was also evidence for an interaction between this variant and sex (p = 0.01), with a stronger effect in males than females (at age 15, males -6.77mg/cm(3) per C allele, p = 2×10(-6); females -2.79 mg/cm(3) per C allele, p = 0.004). Furthermore, in a preliminary analysis, the rs1021188 minor C allele was associated with higher circulating levels of sRANKL (p<0.005). We show this variant to be independent from the previously aBMD associated SNP (rs9594738) and possibly from a third variant in the same RANKL region, which demonstrates important allelic heterogeneity at this locus. Associations with skeletal parameters reflecting bone dimensions were either not found or were much less pronounced. This finding implicates RANKL as a locus containing variation associated with volumetric bone density and provides further insight into the mechanism by which the RANK/RANKL/OPG pathway may be involved in skeletal development.

ABSTRACT We investigated the predictive performance of peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) measures of both calf muscle density (an established surrogate for muscle adiposity, with higher values indicating lower muscle adiposity and higher muscle quality) and size (cross‐sectional area [CSA]) for incident fracture. pQCT (Stratec XCT2000/3000) measurements at the tibia were undertaken in Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) United States (US), Hong Kong (HK), and Swedish (SW) cohorts. Analyses were by cohort and synthesized by meta‐analysis. The predictive value for incident fracture outcomes, illustrated here for hip fracture (HF), using an extension of Poisson regression adjusted for age and follow‐up time, was expressed as hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD) increase in exposure (HR/SD). Further analyses adjusted for femoral neck (fn) bone mineral density (BMD) T‐score, Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) 10‐year fracture probability (major osteoporotic fracture) and prior falls. We studied 991 (US), 1662 (HK), and 1521 (SW) men, mean ± SD age 77.0 ± 5.1, 73.9 ± 4.9, 80 ± 3.4 years, followed for a mean ± SD 7.8 ± 2.2, 8.1 ± 2.3, 5.3 ± 2.0 years, with 31, 47, and 78 incident HFs, respectively. Both greater muscle CSA and greater muscle density were associated with a lower risk of incident HF [HR/SD: 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72–1.0 and 0.78; 95% CI, 0.66–0.91, respectively]. The pattern of associations was not materially changed by adjustment for prior falls or FRAX probability. In contrast, after inclusion of fn BMD T‐score, the association for muscle CSA was no longer apparent (1.04; 95% CI, 0.88–1.24), whereas that for muscle density was not materially changed (0.69; 95% CI, 0.59–0.82). Findings were similar for osteoporotic fractures. pQCT measures of greater calf muscle density and CSA were both associated with lower incidence of fractures in older men, but only muscle density remained an independent risk factor for fracture after accounting for fn BMD. These findings demonstrate a complex interplay between measures of bone, muscle size, and quality, in determining fracture risk. © 2022 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.