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Werner syndrome (WS) is an autosomal recessive genetic instability and progeroid ('premature aging') syndrome which is associated with an elevated risk of cancer. Our study objectives were to characterize the spectrum of neoplasia in WS using a well-documented study population, and to estimate the type-specific risk of neoplasia in WS relative to the general population. We obtained case reports of neoplasms in WS patients through examining previous case series and reviews of WS, as well as through database searching in PubMed, Google Scholar, and J-EAST, a search engine for articles from Japan. We defined the spectrum (types and sites) of neoplasia in WS using all case reports, and were able to determine neoplasm type-specific risk in Japan WS patients by calculating standardized incidence and proportionate incidence ratios (SIR and SPIR, respectively) relative to Osaka Japan prefecture incidence rates. We used a newly assembled study population of 189 WS patients with 248 neoplasms to define the spectrum of neoplasia in WS. The most frequent neoplasms in WS patients, representing 2/3 of all reports, were thyroid neoplasms, malignant melanoma, meningioma, soft tissue sarcomas, leukemia and pre-leukemic conditions of the bone marrow, and primary bone neoplasms. Cancer risk defined by SIRs was significantly elevated in Japan-resident WS patients for the six most frequent neoplasms except leukemia, ranging from 53.5-fold for melanoma of the skin (95% CI: 24.5, 101.6) to 8.9 (95% CI: 4.9, 15.0) for thyroid neoplasms. Cancer risk as defined by SPIR was also significantly elevated for the most common malignancies except leukemia. WS confers a strong predisposition to several specific types of neoplasia. These results serve as a guide for WS clinical care, and for additional analyses to define the mechanistic basis for cancer in WS and the general population.

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) incidence in many developed countries has increased dramatically over four decades, while survival remains poor. Persons with Barrett's esophagus (BE), who experience substantially elevated EA risk, are typically followed in surveillance involving periodic endoscopy with biopsies, although few progress to EA. No medical, surgical or lifestyle interventions have been proven to safely lower EA risk. We investigated whether smoking, obesity or alcohol could predict progression to EA in a prospective cohort of 411 BE patients. Data were collected during personal interview. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using Cox regression. 39% had body mass index (BMI) over 30 and 64% had smoked cigarettes. Main analyses focused on those with at least 5 months of follow-up (33,635 person-months), in whom 45 developed EA. Risk increased by 3% per year of age (trend p-value 0.02), with approximate doubling of risk among males. EA risk increased with smoking pack-years (trend p-value 0.04) and duration (p-value 0.05). Compared to never-smokers, the HR for those in the highest pack-year tertile was 2.29 (95%CI 1.04-5.07). No association was found with alcohol or BMI, whereas a suggestion of increased risk was observed in those with higher waist-hip ratio, especially among males. EA risk significantly increased with increasing age and cigarette exposure. Abdominal obesity, but not BMI, was associated with a modest increased risk. Continued follow-up of this and other cohorts is needed to precisely define these relationships so as to inform risk stratification and preventive interventions.

The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has increased nearly five-fold over the last four decades in the United States. Barrett's esophagus, the replacement of the normal squamous epithelial lining with a mucus-secreting columnar epithelium, is the only known precursor to EAC. Like other parts of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract, the esophagus hosts a variety of bacteria and comparisons among published studies suggest bacterial communities in the stomach and esophagus differ. Chronic infection with Helicobacter pylori in the stomach has been inversely associated with development of EAC, but the mechanisms underlying this association remain unclear. The bacterial composition in the upper GI tract was characterized in a subset of participants (n=12) of the Seattle Barrett's Esophagus Research cohort using broad-range 16S PCR and pyrosequencing of biopsy and brush samples collected from squamous esophagus, Barrett's esophagus, stomach corpus and stomach antrum. Three of the individuals were sampled at two separate time points. Prevalence of H. pylori infection and subsequent development of aneuploidy (n=339) and EAC (n=433) was examined in a larger subset of this cohort. Within individuals, bacterial communities of the stomach and esophagus showed overlapping community membership. Despite closer proximity, the stomach antrum and corpus communities were less similar than the antrum and esophageal samples. Re-sampling of study participants revealed similar upper GI community membership in two of three cases. In this Barrett's esophagus cohort, Streptococcus and Prevotella species dominate the upper GI and the ratio of these two species is associated with waist-to-hip ratio and hiatal hernia length, two known EAC risk factors in Barrett's esophagus. H. pylori-positive individuals had a significantly decreased incidence of aneuploidy and a non-significant trend toward lower incidence of EAC.

Previous studies have evidenced an association between gastroesophageal reflux and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA). It is unknown to what extent these associations vary by population, age, sex, body mass index, and cigarette smoking, or whether duration and frequency of symptoms interact in predicting risk. The Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium (BEACON) allowed an in-depth assessment of these issues. Detailed information on heartburn and regurgitation symptoms and covariates were available from five BEACON case-control studies of EA and esophagogastric junction adenocarcinoma (EGJA). We conducted single-study multivariable logistic regressions followed by random-effects meta-analysis. Stratified analyses, meta-regressions, and sensitivity analyses were also conducted. Five studies provided 1,128 EA cases, 1,229 EGJA cases, and 4,057 controls for analysis. All summary estimates indicated positive, significant associations between heartburn/regurgitation symptoms and EA. Increasing heartburn duration was associated with increasing EA risk; odds ratios were 2.80, 3.85, and 6.24 for symptom durations of <10 years, 10 to <20 years, and ≥20 years. Associations with EGJA were slighter weaker, but still statistically significant for those with the highest exposure. Both frequency and duration of heartburn/regurgitation symptoms were independently associated with higher risk. We observed similar strengths of associations when stratified by age, sex, cigarette smoking, and body mass index. This analysis indicates that the association between heartburn/regurgitation symptoms and EA is strong, increases with increased duration and/or frequency, and is consistent across major risk factors. Weaker associations for EGJA suggest that this cancer site has a dissimilar pathogenesis or represents a mixed population of patients.

Patterns of cancer incidence, viewed over extended time periods, reveal important aspects of multistage carcinogenesis. Here we show how a multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) model for cancer can be harnessed to identify biological processes that shape the surprisingly dynamic and disparate incidence patterns of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in the US population. While the dramatic rise in esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in the US has been largely attributed to reflux related increases in the prevalence of Barrett’s esophagus (BE), the premalignant field in which most EAC are thought to arise, only scant evidence exists for field cancerization contributing to ESCC. Our analyses of incidence patterns suggest that ESCC is associated with a premalignant field that may develop very early in life. Although the risk of ESCC, which is substantially higher in Blacks than Whites, is generally assumed to be associated with late-childhood and adult exposures to carcinogens, such as from tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption and various industrial exposures, the temporal trends we identify for ESCC suggest an onset distribution of field-defects before age 10, most strongly among Blacks. These trends differ significantly in shape and strength from field-defect trends that we estimate for US Whites. Moreover, the rates of ESCC-predisposing field-defects predicted by the model for cohorts of black children are decreasing for more recent birth cohorts (for Blacks born after 1940). These results point to a potential etiologic role of factors acting early in life, perhaps related to nutritional deficiencies, in the development of ESCC and its predisposing field-defect. Such factors may explain some of the striking racial differences seen in ESCC incidence patterns over time in the US.

Cancer is considered an outcome of decades-long clonal evolution fueled by acquisition of somatic genomic abnormalities (SGAs). Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) have been shown to reduce cancer risk, including risk of progression from Barrett's esophagus (BE) to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA). However, the cancer chemopreventive mechanisms of NSAIDs are not fully understood. We hypothesized that NSAIDs modulate clonal evolution by reducing SGA acquisition rate. We evaluated thirteen individuals with BE. Eleven had not used NSAIDs for 6.2±3.5 (mean±standard deviation) years and then began using NSAIDs for 5.6±2.7 years, whereas two had used NSAIDs for 3.3±1.4 years and then discontinued use for 7.9±0.7 years. 161 BE biopsies, collected at 5-8 time points over 6.4-19 years, were analyzed using 1Million-SNP arrays to detect SGAs. Even in the earliest biopsies there were many SGAs (284±246 in 10/13 and 1442±560 in 3/13 individuals) and in most individuals the number of SGAs changed little over time, with both increases and decreases in SGAs detected. The estimated SGA rate was 7.8 per genome per year (95% support interval [SI], 7.1-8.6) off-NSAIDs and 0.6 (95% SI 0.3-1.5) on-NSAIDs. Twelve individuals did not progress to EA. In ten we detected 279±86 SGAs affecting 53±30 Mb of the genome per biopsy per time point and in two we detected 1,463±375 SGAs affecting 180±100 Mb. In one individual who progressed to EA we detected a clone having 2,291±78 SGAs affecting 588±18 Mb of the genome at three time points in the last three of 11.4 years of follow-up. NSAIDs were associated with reduced rate of acquisition of SGAs in eleven of thirteen individuals. Barrett's cells maintained relative equilibrium level of SGAs over time with occasional punctuations by expansion of clones having massive amount of SGAs.

Results from studies examining the association between alcohol consumption and the risk of Barrett's esophagus have been inconsistent. We assessed the risk of Barrett's esophagus associated with total and beverage-specific alcohol consumption by pooling individual participant data from five case-control studies participating in the international Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium. For analysis, there were 1,282 population-based controls, 1,418 controls with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), and 1,169 patients with Barrett's esophagus (cases). We estimated study-specific odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) using multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), education, smoking status, and GERD symptoms. Summary risk estimates were obtained by random-effects models. We also examined potential effect modification by sex, BMI, GERD symptoms, and cigarette smoking. For comparisons with population-based controls, although there was a borderline statistically significant inverse association between any alcohol consumption and the risk of Barrett's esophagus (any vs. none, summary OR=0.77, 95% CI=0.60-1.00), risk did not decrease in a dose-response manner (Ptrend=0.72). Among alcohol types, wine was associated with a moderately reduced risk of Barrett's esophagus (any vs. none, OR=0.71, 95% CI=0.52-0.98); however, there was no consistent dose-response relationship (Ptrend=0.21). We found no association with alcohol consumption when cases were compared with GERD controls. Similar associations were observed across all strata of BMI, GERD symptoms, and cigarette smoking. Consistent with findings for esophageal adenocarcinoma, we found no evidence that alcohol consumption increases the risk of Barrett's esophagus.

Somatic genetic CDKN2A, TP53, and DNA content abnormalities are common in many human cancers and their precursors, including esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) and Barrett's esophagus (BE), conditions for which aspirin and other nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) have been proposed as possible chemopreventive agents; however, little is known about the ability of a biomarker panel to predict progression to cancer nor how NSAID use may modulate progression. We aimed to evaluate somatic genetic abnormalities with NSAIDs as predictors of EA in a prospective cohort study of patients with BE. Esophageal biopsies from 243 patients with BE were evaluated at baseline for TP53 and CDKN2A (p16) alterations, tetraploidy, and aneuploidy using sequencing; loss of heterozygosity (LOH); methylation-specific PCR; and flow cytometry. At 10 y, all abnormalities, except CDKN2A mutation and methylation, contributed to EA risk significantly by univariate analysis, ranging from 17p LOH (relative risk [RR] = 10.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.2-21.3, p < 0.001) to 9p LOH (RR = 2.6; 95% CI 1.1-6.0, p = 0.03). A panel of abnormalities including 17p LOH, DNA content tetraploidy and aneuploidy, and 9p LOH was the best predictor of EA (RR = 38.7; 95% CI 10.8-138.5, p < 0.001). Patients with no baseline abnormality had a 12% 10-y cumulative EA incidence, whereas patients with 17p LOH, DNA content abnormalities, and 9p LOH had at least a 79.1% 10-y EA incidence. In patients with zero, one, two, or three baseline panel abnormalities, there was a significant trend toward EA risk reduction among NSAID users compared to nonusers (p = 0.01). The strongest protective effect was seen in participants with multiple genetic abnormalities, with NSAID nonusers having an observed 10-y EA risk of 79%, compared to 30% for NSAID users (p < 0.001). A combination of 17p LOH, 9p LOH, and DNA content abnormalities provided better EA risk prediction than any single TP53, CDKN2A, or DNA content lesion alone. NSAIDs are associated with reduced EA risk, especially in patients with multiple high-risk molecular abnormalities.

Background A key barrier to controlling esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is identifying those most likely to benefit from screening and surveillance. We aimed to develop an online educational tool, termed IC-RISC™, for providers and patients to estimate more precisely their absolute risk of developing EAC, interpret this estimate in the context of risk of dying from other causes, and aid in decision-making. Results U.S. incidence and mortality data and published relative risk estimates from observational studies and clinical trials were used to calculate absolute risk of EAC over 10 years adjusting for competing risks. These input parameters varied depending on presence of the key precursor, Barrett’s esophagus. The open source application works across common devices to gather risk factor data and graphically illustrate estimated risk on a single page. Changes to input data are immediately reflected in the colored graphs. We used the calculator to compare the risk distribution between EAC cases and controls from six population-based studies to gain insight into the discrimination metrics of current practice guidelines for screening, observing that current guidelines sacrifice a significant amount of specificity to identify 78–86% of eventual cases in the US population. Conclusions This educational tool provides a simple and rapid means to graphically communicate risk of EAC in the context of other health risks, facilitates “what-if” scenarios regarding potential preventative actions, and can inform discussions regarding screening, surveillance and treatment options. Its generic architecture lends itself to being easily extended to other cancers with distinct pathways and/or intermediate stages, such as hepatocellular cancer. IC-RISC™ extends current qualitative clinical practice guidelines into a quantitative assessment, which brings the possibility of preventative actions being offered to persons not currently targeted for screening and, conversely, reducing unnecessary procedures in those at low risk. Prospective validation and application to existing well-characterized cohort studies are needed.

The incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma has increased over the past four decades and although treatments have improved over this time, survival has not improved substantially. In this Perspectives, Vaughan and Fitzgerald suggest a five-tier strategy for prevention and control that begins with a wide population base and triages individuals into progressively higher risk strata, each with risk-appropriate prevention, screening and treatment options. The incidence of oesophageal adenocarcinoma has risen rapidly over the past four decades. Unfortunately, treatments have not kept pace; unless their cancer is identified at a very early stage, most patients will not survive a year after diagnosis. The beginnings of this widespread problem were first recognized over 25 years ago, yet rates have continued to rise against a backdrop of much improved understanding and management of oesophageal adenocarcinoma. We estimate that only ∼7% of the 10,000 cases of oesophageal adenocarcinoma diagnosed annually in the USA are identified through current approaches to cancer control, and trace pathways by which the remaining 93% are 'lost'. On the basis of emerging data on aetiology and predictive factors, together with new diagnostic tools, we suggest a five-tier strategy for prevention and control that begins with a wide population base and triages individuals into progressively higher risk strata, each with risk-appropriate prevention, screening and treatment options.