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Introduction: Cost-effectiveness analyses are important tools in efforts to prioritise interventions for obesity prevention. Modelling facilitates evaluation of multiple scenarios with varying assumptions. This study compares the cost-effectiveness of conservative scenarios for two commonly proposed policy-based interventions: front-of-pack 'traffic-light' nutrition labelling (traffic-light labelling) and a tax on unhealthy foods ('junk-food' tax). Methods: For traffic-light labelling, estimates of changes in energy intake were based on an assumed 10% shift in consumption towards healthier options in four food categories (breakfast cereals, pastries, sausages and preprepared meals) in 10% of adults. For the 'junk-food' tax, price elasticities were used to estimate a change in energy intake in response to a 10% price increase in seven food categories (including soft drinks, confectionery and snack foods). Changes in population weight and body mass index by sex were then estimated based on these changes in population energy intake, along with subsequent impacts on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Associated resource use was measured and costed using pathway analysis, based on a health sector perspective (with some industry costs included). Costs and health outcomes were discounted at 3%. The cost-effectiveness of each intervention was modelled for the 2003 Australian adult population. Results: Both interventions resulted in reduced mean weight (traffic-light labelling: 1.3 kg (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.2; 1.4); 'junk-food' tax: 1.6 kg (95% UI: 1.5; 1.7)); and DALYs averted (traffic-light labelling: 45 100 (95% UI: 37 700; 60 100); 'jjunk-food' tax: 559 000 (95% UI: 459 500; 676 000)). Cost outlays were AUD81 million (95% UI: 44.7; 108.0) for traffic-light labelling and AUD18 million (95% UI: 14.4; 21.6) for 'junk-food' tax. Cost-effectiveness analysis showed both interventions were 'dominant' (effective and cost-saving). Conclusion: Policy-based population-wide interventions such as traffic-light nutrition labelling and taxes on unhealthy foods are likely to offer excellent 'value for money' as obesity prevention measures.

Background Esophagectomy for esophageal cancer has a complication rate of up to 60%. Prediction models could be helpful to preoperatively estimate which patients are at increased risk of morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to determine the best prediction models for morbidity and mortality after esophagectomy and to identify commonalities among the models. Patients and Methods A systematic review was performed in accordance to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement and was prospectively registered in PROSPERO ( https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/ , study ID CRD42022350846). Pubmed, Embase, and Clarivate Analytics/Web of Science Core Collection were searched for studies published between 2010 and August 2022. The Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool was used to assess the risk of bias. Extracted data were tabulated and a narrative synthesis was performed. Results Of the 15,011 articles identified, 22 studies were included using data from tens of thousands of patients. This systematic review included 33 different models, of which 18 models were newly developed. Many studies showed a high risk of bias. The prognostic accuracy of models differed between 0.51 and 0.85. For most models, variables are readily available. Two models for mortality and one model for pulmonary complications have the potential to be developed further. Conclusions The availability of rigorous prediction models is limited. Several models are promising but need to be further developed. Some models provide information about risk factors for the development of complications. Performance status is a potential modifiable risk factor. None are ready for clinical implementation.

Objective: To analyze whether two dietary weight loss interventions-the dietary approaches to stop hypertension (DASH) program and a low-fat diet program- would be cost-effective in Australia, and to assess their potential to reduce the disease burden related to excess body weight. Design: We constructed a multi-state life-table-based Markov model in which the distribution of body weight influences the incidence of stroke, ischemic heart disease, hypertensive heart disease, diabetes mellitus, osteoarthritis, post-menopausal breast cancer, colon cancer, endometrial cancer and kidney cancer. The target population was the overweight and obese adult population in Australia in 2003. We used a lifetime horizon for health effects and costs, and a health sector perspective for costs. We populated the model with data identified from Medline and Cochrane searches, Australian Bureau of Statistics published catalogues, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, and Department of Health and Ageing. Outcome measures: Disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and proportions of disease burden avoided. ICERs under AUS$50 000 per DALY are considered cost-effective. Results: The DASH and low-fat diet programs have ICERs of AUS$12 000 per DALY (95% uncertainty range: Cost-saving-68 000) and AUS$13 000 per DALY (Cost-saving-130 000), respectively. Neither intervention reduced the body weight-related disease burden at population level by more than 0.1%. The sensitivity analysis showed that when participants' costs for time and travel are included, the ICERs increase to AUS$75 000 per DALY for DASH and AUS$49 000 per DALY for the low-fat diet. Modest weight loss during the interventions, post-intervention weight regain and low participation limit the health benefits. Conclusion: Diet and exercise interventions to reduce obesity are potentially cost-effective but have a negligible impact on the total body weight-related disease burden.

Introduction The Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 estimated the worldwide health burden of 291 diseases and injuries and 67 risk factors by calculating disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Osteoporosis was not considered as a disease, and bone mineral density (BMD) was analysed as a risk factor for fractures, which formed part of the health burden due to falls. Objectives To calculate (1) the global distribution of BMD, (2) its population attributable fraction (PAF) for fractures and subsequently for falls, and (3) the number of DALYs due to BMD. Methods A systematic review was performed seeking population-based studies in which BMD was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at the femoral neck in people aged 50 years and over. Age- and sex-specific mean ± SD BMD values (g/cm2) were extracted from eligible studies. Comparative risk assessment methodology was used to calculate PAFs of BMD for fractures. The theoretical minimum risk exposure distribution was estimated as the age- and sex-specific 90th centile from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III). Relative risks of fractures were obtained from a previous meta-analysis. Hospital data were used to calculate the fraction of the health burden of falls that was due to fractures. Results Global deaths and DALYs attributable to low BMD increased from 103 000 and 3 125 000 in 1990 to 188 000 and 5 216 000 in 2010, respectively. The percentage of low BMD in the total global burden almost doubled from 1990 (0.12%) to 2010 (0.21%). Around one-third of falls-related deaths were attributable to low BMD. Conclusions Low BMD is responsible for a growing global health burden, only partially representative of the real burden of osteoporosis.

To develop a standardized method for calculating years lived with disability (YLD) after injury. The method developed consists of obtaining data on injury cases seen in emergency departments as well as injury-related hospital admissions, using the EUROCOST system to link the injury cases to disability information and employing empirical data to describe functional outcomes in injured patients. Overall, 87 weights and proportions for 27 injury diagnoses involving lifelong consequences were included in the method. Almost all of the injuries investigated (96-100%) could be assigned to EUROCOST categories. The mean number of YLD per case of injury varied with the country studied. Use of the novel method resulted in estimated burdens of injury that were 3 to 8 times higher, in terms of YLD, than the corresponding estimates produced using the conventional methods employed in global burden of disease studies, which employ disability-adjusted life years. The novel method for calculating YLD after injury can be applied in different settings, overcomes some limitations of the method used to calculate the global burden of disease, and allows more accurate estimates of the population burden of injury.

Given escalating rates of chronic disease, broad-reach and cost-effective interventions to increase physical activity and improve dietary intake are needed. The cost-effectiveness of a Telephone Counselling intervention to improve physical activity and diet, targeting adults with established chronic diseases in a low socio-economic area of a major Australian city was examined. A cost-effectiveness modelling study using data collected between February 2005 and November 2007 from a cluster-randomised trial that compared Telephone Counselling with a \"Usual Care\" (brief intervention) alternative. Economic outcomes were assessed using a state-transition Markov model, which predicted the progress of participants through five health states relating to physical activity and dietary improvement, for ten years after recruitment. The costs and health benefits of Telephone Counselling, Usual Care and an existing practice (Real Control) group were compared. Telephone Counselling compared to Usual Care was not cost-effective ($78,489 per quality adjusted life year gained). However, the Usual Care group did not represent existing practice and is not a useful comparator for decision making. Comparing Telephone Counselling outcomes to existing practice (Real Control), the intervention was found to be cost-effective ($29,375 per quality adjusted life year gained). Usual Care (brief intervention) compared to existing practice (Real Control) was also cost-effective ($12,153 per quality adjusted life year gained). This modelling study shows that a decision to adopt a Telephone Counselling program over existing practice (Real Control) is likely to be cost-effective. Choosing the 'Usual Care' brief intervention over existing practice (Real Control) shows a lower cost per quality adjusted life year, but the lack of supporting evidence for efficacy or sustainability is an important consideration for decision makers. The economics of behavioural approaches to improving health must be made explicit if decision makers are to be convinced that allocating resources toward such programs is worthwhile. This paper uses data collected in a previous clinical trial registered at the Australian Clinical Trials Registry, Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: Anzcrt.org.au ACTRN012607000195459.

For some phenomena the mean of population distributions predicts the proportion of people exceeding a threshold value. To investigate whether in depression, too, the population mean predicts the number of individuals at the extreme end of the distribution. We used data from the European Outcome in Depression International Network (ODIN) study from populations in Finland, Norway and the UK to create models that predicted the prevalence of depression based on the mean Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) score. The models were tested on data from Ireland and Spain. Mean BDI score correlated well with the prevalence of depression determined by clinical interviews. A model based on the beta distribution best fitted the BDI distribution. Both models predicted the depression prevalence in Ireland and Spain fairly well. The mean of a continuous population distribution of mood predicts the prevalence of depression. Characteristics of both individuals and populations determine depression rates.

Study objective: To assess what methods are used in quantitative health impact assessment (HIA), and to identify areas for future research and development. Design: HIA reports were assessed for (1) methods used to quantify effects of policy on determinants of health (exposure impact assessment) and (2) methods used to quantify health outcomes resulting from changes in exposure to determinants (outcome assessment). Main results: Of 98 prospective HIA studies, 17 reported quantitative estimates of change in exposure to determinants, and 16 gave quantified health outcomes. Eleven (categories of) determinants were quantified up to the level of health outcomes. Methods for exposure impact assessment were: estimation on the basis of routine data and measurements, and various kinds of modelling of traffic related and environmental factors, supplemented with experts’ estimates and author’s assumptions. Some studies used estimates from other documents pertaining to the policy. For the calculation of health outcomes, variants of epidemiological and toxicological risk assessment were used, in some cases in mathematical models. Conclusions: Quantification is comparatively rare in HIA. Methods are available in the areas of environmental health and, to a lesser extent, traffic accidents, infectious diseases, and behavioural factors. The methods are diverse and their reliability and validity are uncertain. Research and development in the following areas could benefit quantitative HIA: methods to quantify the effect of socioeconomic and behavioural determinants; user friendly simulation models; the use of summary measures of public health, expert opinion and scenario building; and empirical research into validity and reliability.

ObjectiveTo evaluate population health benefits and cost-effectiveness of interventions for reducing salt in the diet.DesignProportional multistate life-table modelling of cardiovascular disease and health sector cost outcomes over the lifetime of the Australian population in 2003.InterventionsThe current Australian programme of incentives to the food industry for moderate reduction of salt in processed foods; a government mandate of moderate salt limits in processed foods; dietary advice for everyone at increased risk of cardiovascular disease and dietary advice for those at high risk.Main Outcome MeasuresCosts measured in Australian dollars for the year 2003. Health outcomes measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted over the lifetime.ResultsMandatory and voluntary reductions in the salt content of processed food are cost-saving interventions under all modelled scenarios of discounting, costing and cardiovascular disease risk reversal (dominant cost-effectiveness ratios). Dietary advice targeting individuals is not cost-effective under any of the modelled scenarios, even if directed at those with highest blood pressure risk only (best case median cost-effectiveness A$100 000/DALY; 95% uncertainty interval A$64 000/DALY to A$180 000/DALY). Although the current programme that relies on voluntary action by the food industry is cost-effective, the population health benefits could be 20 times greater with government legislation on moderate salt limits in processed foods.ConclusionsProgrammes to encourage the food industry to reduce salt in processed foods are highly recommended for improving population health and reducing health sector spending in the long term, but regulatory action from government may be needed to achieve the potential of significant improvements in population health.