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Modern wind turbines already represent a tightly optimized confluence of materials science and aerodynamic engineering. Veers et al. review the challenges and opportunities for further expanding this technology, with an emphasis on the need for interdisciplinary collaboration. They highlight the need to better understand atmospheric physics in the regions where taller turbines will operate as well as the materials constraints associated with the scale-up. The mutual interaction of turbine sites with one another and with the evolving features of the overall electricity grid will furthermore necessitate a systems approach to future development. Science , this issue p. eaau2027 Harvested by advanced technical systems honed over decades of research and development, wind energy has become a mainstream energy resource. However, continued innovation is needed to realize the potential of wind to serve the global demand for clean energy. Here, we outline three interdependent, cross-disciplinary grand challenges underpinning this research endeavor. The first is the need for a deeper understanding of the physics of atmospheric flow in the critical zone of plant operation. The second involves science and engineering of the largest dynamic, rotating machines in the world. The third encompasses optimization and control of fleets of wind plants working synergistically within the electricity grid. Addressing these challenges could enable wind power to provide as much as half of our global electricity needs and perhaps beyond.

This study investigates the challenges and opportunities presented by downwind wind turbines and offers a roadmap of future research pathways to maximize their potential. Multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization comparison studies between upwind and downwind configurations on a modern 10‐MW offshore wind turbine are presented to support the discussion. On one hand, the downwind rotor is found to consistently have a smaller swept area under loading. As a result, the downwind design produces less annual energy production (−1.2%). On the other hand, lighter blades for the downwind configuration lead to lower capital costs (−1.7%), so there is little difference in the levelized cost of energy between the two. Key ultimate and fatigue loads are compared, with some values increasing in the downwind configuration, while others decrease. The impact of a downwind configuration on the tower and the impacts of cone and tilt angles and free‐yaw system on the levelized cost of energy are also investigated. The results show a mix of some advantages and disadvantages. Given these results, four areas of research in advanced controls, highly tilted rotors, higher fidelity aerodynamic models, and floating wind are proposed for downwind wind turbines.

Wind turbines within an array do not experience free-stream undisturbed flow fields. Rather, the flow fields on internal turbines are influenced by wakes generated by upwind unit and exhibit different dynamic characteristics relative to the free stream. The International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) standard 61400-1 for the design of wind turbines only considers a deterministic wake model for the design of a wind plant. This study is focused on the development of a stochastic model for waked wind fields. First, high-fidelity physics-based waked wind velocity fields are generated using Large-Eddy Simulation (LES). Stochastic characteristics of these LES waked wind velocity field, including mean and turbulence components, are analyzed. Wake-related mean and turbulence field-related parameters are then estimated for use with a stochastic model, using Multivariate Multiple Linear Regression (MMLR) with the LES data. To validate the simulated wind fields based on the stochastic model, wind turbine tower and blade loads are generated using aeroelastic simulation for utility-scale wind turbine models and compared with those based directly on the LES inflow. The study’s overall objective is to offer efficient and validated stochastic approaches that are computationally tractable for assessing the performance and loads of turbines operating in wakes.

We present a novel methodology for characterizing and simulating non-stationary stochastic wind records. In this new method, non-stationarity is characterized and modelled via temporal coherence, which is quantified in the discrete frequency domain by probability distributions of the differences in phase between adjacent Fourier components. Temporal coherence can also be used to quantify non-stationary characteristics in wind data. Three case studies are presented that analyze the non-stationarity of turbulent wind data obtained at the National Wind Technology Center near Boulder, Colorado, USA. The first study compares the temporal and spectral characteristics of a stationary wind record and a non-stationary wind record in order to highlight their differences in temporal coherence. The second study examines the distribution of one of the proposed temporal coherence parameters and uses it to quantify the prevalence of nonstationarity in the dataset. The third study examines how temporal coherence varies with a range of atmospheric parameters to determine what conditions produce more non-stationarity.

Wind energy is foundational for achieving 100 % renewable electricity production, and significant innovation is required as the grid expands and accommodates hybrid plant systems, energy-intensive products such as fuels, and a transitioning transportation sector. The sizable investments required for wind power plant development and integration make the financial and operational risks of change very high in all applications but especially offshore. Dependence on a high level of modeling and simulation accuracy to mitigate risk and ensure operational performance is essential. Therefore, the modeling chain from the large-scale inflow down to the material microstructure, and all the steps in between, needs to predict how the wind turbine system will respond and perform to allow innovative solutions to enter commercial application. Critical unknowns in the design, manufacturing, and operability of future turbine and plant systems are articulated, and recommendations for research action are laid out.This article focuses on the many unknowns that affect the ability to push the frontiers in the design of turbine and plant systems. Modern turbine rotors operate through the entire atmospheric boundary layer, outside the bounds of historic design assumptions, which requires reassessing design processes and approaches. Traditional aerodynamics and aeroelastic modeling approaches are pressing against the limits of applicability for the size and flexibility of future architectures and flow physics fundamentals. Offshore wind turbines have additional motion and hydrodynamic load drivers that are formidable modeling challenges. Uncertainty in turbine wakes complicates structural loading and energy production estimates, both around a single plant and for downstream plants, which requires innovation in plant operations and flow control to achieve full energy capture and load alleviation potential. Opportunities in co-design can bring controls upstream into design optimization if captured in design-level models of the physical phenomena. It is a research challenge to integrate improved materials into the manufacture of ever-larger components while maintaining quality and reducing cost. High-performance computing used in high-fidelity, physics-resolving simulations offer opportunities to improve design tools through artificial intelligence and machine learning, but even the high-fidelity tools are yet to be fully validated. Finally, key actions needed to continue the progress of wind energy technology toward even lower cost and greater functionality are recommended.

Fatigue assessment of wind turbines involves three main sources of uncertainty: material resistance, load, and the damage accumulation model. Many studies focus on increasing the accuracy of fatigue load assessment to improve the fatigue reliability. Probabilistic modeling of the wind's turbulence standard deviation is an example of an approach used for this purpose.Editions 3 and 4 of the IEC standard for the design of wind energy generation systems (IEC 61400-1) suggest different probability distributions as alternatives for the representative turbulence in the normal turbulence model (NTM) of edition 1. There are debates on whether the suggested distributions provide conservative reliability levels, as the established design safety factors are calibrated based on the representative turbulence approach. The current study addresses the debate by comparing annual reliability based on different scenarios of NTM using a probabilistic approach. More importantly, it elaborates on the relative importance of load assessment accuracy in defining the fatigue reliability.Using the DTU 10 MW reference wind turbine and the first-order reliability method (FORM), we study the changes in the annual reliability level and its sensitivity to the three main random inputs. We perform the study considering the blade root flapwise and the tower base fore–aft moments, assuming different fatigue exponents in each load channel.The results show that integration over distributions of turbulence in each mean wind speed results in less conservative annual reliability levels than representative turbulence. The difference in the reliability levels varies according to turbulence distribution and the fatigue exponent. In the case of the tower base, the difference in the annual reliability index after 20 years can be up to 50 %. However, the model and material uncertainty have much higher effects on the reliability levels compared to load uncertainty. Knowledge about such differences in the reliability levels due to the choice of turbulence distribution is especially important, as it impacts the extent of lifetime extension through reliability reassessments.

Microscale flow descriptions are often given in terms of mean quantities, turbulent kinetic energy, and/or stresses. Those metrics, while valuable, give limited information about turbulent eddies and coherent turbulent structures. This work investigates the structure of an atmospheric boundary layer using coherence and correlation in space and time with a range of separation distances. We calculate spatial correlations over entire planes of velocity fluctuations, from which we can evaluate the correlation along different directions at different spacings. Similarly, coherence of the three velocity components over separations in the three directions is also investigated. We apply these analyses to a mesoscale–microscale coupled scenario with time-varying conditions and examine nuances in spatial correlations that are often overlooked. Through these analyses and results, this work highlights important differences observed in terms of coherence when comparing large-eddy simulation data to simpler models and suggests ways to improve these simpler models. We note that such differences are important for disciplines like wind energy structural dynamic analysis, in which blade loading and fatigue depend strongly on the structure of the turbulence. We emphasize the additional wealth of data that can be provided by typical atmospheric boundary layer large-eddy simulation when correlation and coherence analysis is included, and we also state the limitations of large-eddy simulation data, which inherently truncate the smaller scales of turbulence.

Wind energy is anticipated to play a central role in enabling a rapid transition from fossil fuels to a system based largely on renewable power. For wind power to fulfill its expected role as the backbone – providing nearly half of the electrical energy – of a renewable-based, carbon-neutral energy system, critical challenges around design, manufacture, and deployment of land and offshore technologies must be addressed. During the past 3 years, the wind research community has invested significant effort toward understanding the nature and implications of these challenges and identifying associated gaps. The outcomes of these efforts are summarized in a series of 10 articles, some under review by Wind Energy Science (WES) and others planned for submission during the coming months. This letter explains the genesis, significance, and impacts of these efforts.

Site-specific fatigue estimation is an essential part of wind turbine lifetime extension, with various methods depending on data availability. The present study compares probabilistic lifetime extension assessment results for rotor blades with and without load measurements. It also addresses two key questions in such assessments: the applicability of the Frandsen model for estimating waked turbulence under complex and mixed wake conditions and the extrapolation of mid-term data over longer time periods. The case study wind turbine is SWT-2.3-93, located at the edge of the Lillgrund wind farm, situated in the Øresund Strait between Denmark and Sweden. The turbine is extensively instrumented, with 5 years of data available from its supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Although the Frandsen turbulence estimates deviate in a different manner from measurements at below- and above-rated mean wind speeds, the model remains a conservative approach for fatigue load prediction and reliability. In the current case study, the site-specific assessment using strain gauge measurements yields a 33 % higher annual fatigue reliability index after 35 years compared to a scenario based on the Frandsen estimation combined with ambient environmental data and a generic aeroelastic model. The results also demonstrate that the sensitivity of fatigue reliability to load uncertainty is negligible when load measurements are used directly but relatively high when relying on the Frandsen model in combination with a generic aeroelastic model. Overall, the high variability of the lifetime extension in different scenarios of data availability and accuracy shows the importance and added value of high-quality measurements combined with wind-farm-level SCADA and a model updated in real time (digital twins).